Free Picks for Friday, July 7th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
TIGERS VS. INDIANS
PLAY: INDIANS -1.5
I think it’s time to get back on the anti-Jordan Zimmermann train. The veteran Detroit righty seemed to be coming around to some extent for little while. But of late Zimmermann has regressed to his early season form, which was really bad.
Zimmermann is again getting very few ground balls, and he’s just not a guy with good enough stuff at this point to survive a high fly ball rate. That’s not just a passing thought with no substance. Zimmermann has now surrendered a ghastly 21 home runs in only 92 innings of work.
On the flip side, All-Star snub Carlos Carrasco is pitching for the Indians tonight. The Cleveland righty is 9-3 with a very respectable ERA and his accompanying peripheral numbers are all solid.
The Tigers are off a respectable homestand but now they have to hit the road where things have not gone well. Cleveland remains a bit of a mystery flop at home but this looks like a very good matchup for the Tribe. The Indians are huge chalk on the money line, but I don’t want to pass this game on price. So I’ll spot the -1.5 and look for the Indians to win convincingly.
Marc Lawrence
Padres vs. Phillies
Play: Phillies -129
Edges - Phillies: Pivetta 3.50 ERA with 1.11 WHIP home as opposed to 5.56 ERA with 1.76 WHIP away this season… Padres: Richard 0-3 career team starts vs Philadelphia, and 0-4 last 4 away team starts during June, and 0-2 vs NL East this season… With the Phillies 10-2 the last 12 home games in this series, we recommend a 1* play on Philadelphia.
Ben Burns
Orioles vs. Twins
Play: Over 10½
Kevin Gausman (5-7, 5.61 ERA) looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after coming off his best start of 2017, going seven scoreless in a victory over the Rays on Sunday. Guasman has looked a bit better of late, but note that he’s a horrible 2-4 with a 7.60 ERA on the road this year. Felix Jorge (1-0, 5.40) has been called up from Double-A to make this start. In his lone spot start against KC over the weekend, Jorge gave up three runs off seven hits over five innings. Clearly the book is still out on the rookie as the sample size is just too small. Recent form displayed by these two pitchers suggests we could have a bit of a “slug-fest” on our hands in this one.
Sean Murphy
A's vs. Mariners
Play: Under 8
Sean Manaea will take the ball for the A's. He is quietly putting together a fine campaign, having gone 7-4 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. He worked into the eighth inning in a hard luck 4-3 loss to the Braves last time out. Note that Manaea has allowed two earned runs or less in seven of his last nine outings.
James Paxton will counter for Seattle. He's been terrific this season, going 6-3 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Here at home, Paxton has been at his absolute best, recording a 2.68 ERA. Paxton was masterful in his last start, needing only 87 pitches to get through 6 1/3 innings, allowing just one earned run in a 5-3 win over the Angels.
The A's have been one of the best 'over' bets in baseball this season but I expect this matchup to be played fairly close to the vest.
Rob Vinciletti
Chicago vs. Colorado
Play: Colorado -156
Colorado fits a a solid 81% system tonight that pertains to home teams off a home loss that scored 4 or less runs vs an opponent like Chicago off a +140 or higher road dog loss scoring 2 or less runs. Colorado has won 20 of 28 series openers and 12 of 16 at home vs leftys. Chicago has lost 6 straight road games vs N.L. Teams and 10 of 12 away vs winning teams. They have Holland making his first start in Colorado and he is 1-5 with a 7.97 era in his last 7 starts. He has a 6.46 road era. Marquez for Colorado has won 4 of 5 as a favorite this season. Look for Colorado to win this one.
Brandon Shively
Baltimore vs. Minnesota
Pick: Baltimore
Kevin Gausman has always had a lot of potential, and he's put it together the last few games. The Twins offense has scuffled a bit in recent weeks. Minnesota has one of the worst bullpens in baseball, and Britton is back for the Orioles.
Felix Jorge is a guy I don't trust as a starter. The Twins give him a shot here, and I think this is a good spot for the Baltimore offense to get back on track. Jorge's minor league splits aren't even very impressive.
Jim Feist
Orioles at Twins
Pick: Over
Kevin Gausman (5.61 ERA, 5-7) has struggled much of the season, walking 43 in 93 innings. The Over is 10-4-1 when Gausman starts on natural grass. Minnesota has a weak bullpen and 23-year old starter Felix Jorge (5.40 ERA) went only 5 innings in his lone start, a 10-5 win over Kansas City. The Over is 48-22-1 in the Twins last 71 vs. a team with a losing record.
Jason Sharpe
Pittsburgh (+140) over Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates rookie right-hander Trevor Williams has rattled off three straight quality starts coming into this one. Williams has made more use of his sinker. The Pirates off has been much improved of late as well as they carried an above average 101 wRC+ for the month of June. On the other side of things the Chicago Cubs continue to be overvalued. The Cubs offense was tied for last in the National League in team batting average for the month of June. They hand the baseball here to Eddie Butler in this one. Butler probably shouldn't be starting for a team as good as the Cubs as he comes in with an ERA above 5.00 in his last 7 starts and with an ugly xFIP of 5.35. The Cubs have been basically a .500 all year long and have cost their backers nearly 17 units on the season so far which shows how overvalued they've been this year.
Robert Ferringo
Miami (+105) over San Francisco
Dan Straily has been one of the most undervalued starters in the National League. He’s won four straight starts and seven of his past nine, and he’s still been posted as an underdog in nearly half of those plays. He has a sub-4.00 ERA and he has a 3-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Marlins can hit. They are No. 6 in the Majors in team batting. But they don’t get enough decent pitching. Straily is one of the few reliable arms they have. San Francisco is starting to play better and has swept back-to-back series. But they still have one of the worst records in baseball and this team has a popgun offense. On top of that, Matt Moore is scheduled to start and his ERA is up near 6.00. He’s been a mess and is just 2-6 in his last eight outings. Go with the Marlins here and don’t forget about my two big plays this weekend.
SPORTS WAGERS
Pittsburgh +135 over CHICAGO
Trevor Williams posted a big spring with Pittsburgh but did not do much of note early in the season. He turned it on in June though, even if his surface stats (4.34 ERA) didn't show it. His base skills were rock solid across the board: 8.1 K’s/9 1.9 BB’s/9, 45% grounders and a 3.51 xERA. Williams’ good command was supported by an 11.9% swing and miss rate, 62% first-pitch strike rate and 33% ball%. He's someone worth speculating on when taking back a price. He’s also the best starter in this game.
Maybe it’s a playoff hangover. Maybe it’s because the Cubs rest their players. Maybe, just maybe, it’s because Cubs’ starters have a 4.62 ERA. Regardless of what you think is causing the Cubs’ slide, it’s a real thing and just like other teams’ in every sport have found out in the past, there is no on/off switch available. Now Eddie Butler, Chicago’s worst starter is a significant favorite again.
At times, Eddie Butler has been a different pitcher in 2017. He has a 3-1 record at Wrigley with a nifty 3.18 ERA which is a far cry from his career 6.50 ERA after years of turmoil in the Rockies organization. The story here is an easy one to latch on to: top-shelf pitching prospect gets devoured by an offense-heavy ballpark, gets traded to the Cubs and then becomes a quality starter. It’s almost the same backstory as Jake Arrieta’s but we’re not buying it because in 2017, the “new” Eddie Butler is really the same old Eddie Butler masked by some small-sample good fortune.
Butler has never been a big strikeout guy, so he has to limit walks to survive. In 47 frames, Butler has a horrible BB/K split of 24/28. That is not good and the ratio is right in line with his career mark, which has led to a K-BB% of 3.0%. The most recent qualified starting pitcher to post a lower ratio was 2012 Ricky Romero who had a K-BB% of 2.3, which was accompanied by a 5.77 ERA, which was accompanied by Romero falling off the map. Pitchers with this profile don’t accrue very many innings and when they do, the results show why. Eddie Butler has walked 10 and struck out 10 over his past 23 innings covering five starts. Pay more attention to Butler’s 5.65 xERA at home than his actual ERA.
Butler has only allowed three jacks this season but his career fly-ball % is 28%, and his 2017 rate has increased to 32%, which doesn’t coincide with allowing so few jacks. Butler’s success at limiting home runs thus far has allowed him to strand runners at a rate that is screaming for regression. Opposing teams haven’t been able to string hits together against Butler, but that tends to even out over time, especially considering the fact that Butler’s career LOB% is below league average. When you don’t strike guys out, the ground balls eventually find holes, the fly balls eventually leave the yard, and the walks start to come around to score. Butler is a professional baseball player while we’re just some folks with some spreadsheets. However, the spreadsheets are telling us to seriously pump the brakes on the Arrieta comps – underneath the ERA, this still looks like the same Eddie Butler and that means he’s not a starter we want to get behind when spotting a tag.
Oakland +145 over SEATTLE
Sean Manaea is producing whiffs with ease. He has 90 K’s in 86 innings thus far. His change-up (25% of pitches) and slider (20%) have been dominant, as each has produced a 20%+ swing and miss rate. Manaea has strong skills across the board. He’s strong at home, he’s strong on the road too and he appears to be getting better with each passing start. We recently tabbed Manaea as "one of the best breakout targets in the game," which makes complete sense given his electric swing-and-miss stuff, his elite 53% groundball tilt and low line-drive rate of 17%. Manaea's a growth stock worth targeting against anyone and he’ll now be taking back a sweet price against a Mariners’ squad that is laboring. Oakland came in here last night and easily won the opener and there’s no reason they can’t keep it going.
The seeds of James Paxton’s upside have been planted for years and they are still there. However, Paxton can dominate one game and then get blown up in the next, which makes him too big a risk when spotting a tag. Case in point is that the Mariners are 5-5 over his last 10 starts. In the victories, Paxton pitched into the sixth inning each time but in the losses, he barely made it through four innings. The point is that James Paxton is just as likely to have a bad game as he is a good one. After missing nearly a month with a forearm strain, Paxton has been back for six starts and it’s the same old. He’s been good in three starts and poor in the other three. He’ll strike out nine one day and then strike out three the next time out. Paxton’s under the hood numbers show why he’s so erratic too. He has a pedestrian groundball rate of 41%. He has a borderline 1.22 WHIP but that WHIP is 1.63 in his six games back since being injured. He’s also walked 16 batters over his past 31 frames. Paxton has filthy stuff when he’s on but he’s not “on” often enough to trust and it’s for that reason he’s overvalued when favored and a good target to back when taking back a price. He’s favored here.
MINNESOTA +115 over Baltimore
For the Orioles, Monday’s three-day break can’t get here soon enough. The Orioles were shut out Wednesday to end a three-game sweep in Milwaukee. They’ve been shut out twice in the past eight games and have averaged 2.38 runs per game in that span. They were shut out by Matt Garza Wednesday and scored three runs in three games in Milwaukee. The Crew scored 18 times. The O’s scored four runs last night in the opener of this series but allowed six in another loss. Aside from being in awful form, the Orioles 15 road wins in 44 games is the worst mark in the AL. With the break due up on Monday, the Orioles are gasping for air and now they’re favored on the road against the in-contention Twins because why
The reason the Orioles are favored here is because the market does not like rookie pitchers that don’t have a strong pedigree. You know, like Oakland’s Paul Blackburn last night, who shut down the Mariners. We’re not suggesting that Felix Jorge is going to thrive but it would not surprise us if he did. The Twins promoted Jorge from Double-A last week and he made his major league debut with a spot start against the Royals on Saturday, July 1. He threw five full, allowed seven hits and three earned runs. We can live with another performance like that one. Jorge is a control-oriented pitcher with a three-pitch mix. When he signed, he was ultra-thin, but has added strength and good weight. He works off of his 90-94 mph sinker that he commands well to the bottom half of the strike zone and thus, he’s is an extreme groundball pitcher. His best pitch may be his change-up that exhibits plenty of depth and fade. Because of Jorge’s arm speed, the change-up is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate. He is more of a pitch-to-contact guy and won’t become much of a strikeout pitcher. He’s also inexperienced. A pitcher that jumps from Double-A to the majors has to have something. This kid locates well and that’s becoming a more valuable asset these days than guys that can throw 98 MPH without locating well.
Kevin Gausman is coming off a two-hit, seven inning shutout over the Rays. He was awesome. Prior to that, he threw five shutout innings over the Blue Jays. Gausman has a 2.18 ERA over his last three starts and the market likes “Last 3 Appearances” because in almost all publications, that stat has a column all on its own and it sticks out. We’re now selling high on Gausman because he has been mostly brutal in 13 of his 18 starts. Here’s a guy with a 1.74 WHIP that is favored on the road. Here’s a guy with a road ERA of 7.60 to go along with a road BAA of .340 that is favored on the road. Here’s a guy with a 36% groundball rate, a 26% line-drive rate and a 38% fly-ball rate over his last six starts that is favored on the road. Here’s a guy with an xERA of 5.17 that is favored on the road and that is pitching for a team in vile form that rarely wins a road game. Pencil us in.
Chicago -1½ +265 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
16-19 + 33.65 units
SPORTS WAGERS
WINNIPEG +150 over Calgary
The Stampeders domination of the Blue Bombers has been a major talking point this week. Calgary has won eight straight in Winnipeg and 15 of their last 16 games against the Bombers. The last Bombers quarterback to defeat the Stamps was Stefan LeFors. The Stampeders need no introductions here. They have been the class of the league for years but this season's incarnation might not be as good as advertised. Calgary is a beat-up up team that was forced to add seven new players to their roster this week. Now they’re being asked to come together quickly and thrive in a road game? We don’t think so. Calgary has had issues in the kicking game this season too. The usually reliable Rene Paredes missed three extra points last week and the 37-yard game-winning field goal in Week 1. Confidence is everything for a kicker and right now Paredes is lost. Finally, this is a big letdown spot for the Stamps. Their newly found rivalry with Ottawa produced two back and forth nail biters to start the season after they lost in last year’s Grey Cup game. Calgary finally got their revenge last week over the Champs and now what we likely are going to see is a complacent team that is very likely going to overlook the Bombers.
“This is 2017…it’s a different team. Calgary’s got a different team. I don’t spend a lot of time thinking about a historical record.” That quote came from Bombers head coach Mike O'Shea and we couldn't agree more. Recency bias plays a huge role in a marketplace that is loaded with useless trends and statistics. Calgary’s dominance over Winnipeg is one of them. Like O'Shea, we are focused on the here and now. The Bombers are just one game in but there was a lot to like about their Week 2 win over the Roughriders. They overcame an early deficit in the most hostile of CFL environments to win a close game in overtime as a small road dog. Matt Nichols threw for 331 yards and four touchdowns. Unlike the Stamps, the Bombers kicking game had zero issues. Justin Medlock proved again why he is the best kicker in the league by converting 5/5 field goal attempts including two clutch kicks in overtime to seal the W for the Bombers. Defensively, the Bombers were back to their ball-hawking ways with two interceptions building off of last year's 30 pick season. This week, the Bombers will roll with nearly the exact same lineup as Week 2 with the exception of a minor injury on special teams. That is a sharp contrast to a Stampeders team rolling with a patchwork lineup in just their third game. Furthermore, for Winnipeg, this game is just so meaningful and they’ll be so focused to get this proverbial monkey off their backs while the Stamps already got their early season satisfaction. Based on pedigree and their recent domination of the Bombers, you will be paying a premium to back the Stampeders here, which just isn't in our wheelhouse. We’re always looking out for “bad numbers” and trust we found it here, thus, we're confidently calling the upset here and will play it accordingly.
Kevin Rogers
New York at St Louis
Play: St Louis -109
Jacob deGrom has been the hottest pitcher in baseball recently by winning each of his last four starts as the Mets and Cardinals hook up at Busch Stadium. deGrom was scheduled to start on Wednesday night in Washington, but that game was rained out so the right-hander was pushed back to Friday. Carlos Martinez takes the mound for St. Louis as the righty is winless in his last three starts, while allowing 5 ER for the third time in a 7-2 loss to Washington his last time out. The Cardinals are 6-2 in his eight starts as a home favorite, while beating the Mets twice last season. I'll back St. Louis to knock off New York in the series opener.
Power Sports
Atlanta vs. Washington
Pick: Washington -1.5
This recommendation is for the run line only (-1.5) on the Nationals. After losing 5-2 to the Braves last night, the Nats should bounce back in a major way here as Max Scherzer is starter.
To say Scherzer should have a better team start record than 11-6 is putting things mildly. He comes in w/ a the top ERA (1.94) and WHIP (0.771) in all of baseball. He's given up 2 ER or less in seven of his last eight starts and over the L3, his ERA/WHIP are a preposterous 0.43/0.429! His KW ratio over those last eight starts is 89-10. One of the two times the team actually lost w/ him on the mound during this stretch was a game (against Miami) where he took a no-hitter into the 8th. For my money, he's the best pitcher in all of baseball.
Atlanta has been surprisingly competitive on the road this year, but not when R.A. Dickey is on the bump. Dickey is just 1-4 in his seven road starts this year as he has a 6.30 ERA and 1.675 WHIP. Prior to winning yday, the Braves had lost their previous two games by six and 12 runs respectively. This should be a blowout w/ the Nats winning by at least two runs and probably a lot more than that.
Larry Ness
Angels at Rangers
Play: Rangers
Los Angeles halted a three-game skid by salvaging the finale of a three-game series at Minnesota with a 2-1 win on Wednesday. The 44-45 Angels open a three-game weekend series in Texas against the Rangers tonight, 15 1/2 games back of the Astros in the AL West. Texas also snapped a three-game losing streak of its own, with an 8-2 win over Boston on Wednesday. The 41-44 Rangers are 16 1/2 games back of the Astros but both teams still own wild card hopes, with the Angels just 2 1/2 games out of the AL's second wild card spot and the Rangers only 3 1/2 games out.
Ricky Nolasco (4-9, 4.42 ERA) finally put an end to a 10-start win-less drought (he was 0-7 and the Angels 0-10) with 6.1 scoreless innings at the Los Angeles Dodgers back on June 26. The Angels won 4-0, giving Nolasco his first victory since April 27. He followed that up by pitching a three-hit shutout against Seattle on July 1, as the Angels again won 4-0. Nolasco is 1-2 with a 5.29 ERA in three career starts against the Rangers.
Cole Hamels (3-0, 4.12 ERA) was hit hard in his first start since his lengthy stint on the disabled list. He was staked to a seven-run lead back on June 26 vs the Indians but he would up allowing seven runs on eight hits over just 4.1 innings of a game Cleveland would win, 15-9. However, the veteran lefty was much better at Chicago against the White Sox on July 1, allowing two runs on just two hits over 6.2 innings without a walk in a 10-4 Texas win. He's made six career starts against LA, going 21-1 with a 2.93 ERA (teams are 3-3).
After his three-hit shutout against Seattle, Nolasco said,"It usually takes at least 50 innings for me as a starter. Now it's just that time to keep it going all the way to October." One wonders if Nolasco is aware that he'll enter this game with a 112-112 career record on 314 appearances, while posting a 4.52 ERA.