DAVE COKIN
TIGERS AT BLUE JAYS
PLAY: BLUE JAYS -1
It’s official. The Blue Jays are hot. They’ve gotten the sticks going, the pitching continues to be better than what many expected, and this team is right back in the thick of things in the AL East.
Mike Pelfrey doesn’t figure as the guy who can tame the Toronto bats. Pelfrey is actually not even a #5 starter, but the Tigers haven’t had much choice but to keep sending him out there while hoping for the best. I can’t see Pelfrey being able to get through this lineup without incurring damage along the way.
The J.A. Happ roll is still gong strong. Happ is very simply outperforming his metrics. Those figures are actually pretty mediocre for the most part. But Happ’s results continue to be outstanding, and that’s what really counts. The southpaw has won each of his last five starts. The Blue Jays are 12-5 in the games Happ has worked this season. Going back to the finish of the 2015 campaign, the team is 20-7 when Happ takes the mound.
Feel free to debate whether Happ has been a luck box or not. The bottom line is that he’s doing enough to give his team a legitimate chance to win far more often than not, and that’s really the key for me. If Happ can give the Jays six frames tonight while limiting Detroit to three or four runs, I’ve got to think Toronto will be able to get enough off Pelfrey to be in good shape.
The price on this game is naturally pretty high, so this will be another game where I create a -1 line by splitting my play into two pieces, half on the money line, and half on the runs line. I’ll be on the Blue Jays to win for the seventh straight game.
Sleepyj
Texas -1.5 -120
I'll take a stab at the Rangers here tonight...Hamels is coming off a rough outing and so are the Rangers last night. I expect Hamels to be solid before he gets a nice long break..A rebounding win will be good for him heading into the second half...Rangers didn't look all that great last night against Duffy and the Twins. I think they come back tough here facing Gibson...Gibson hasn't been anything special, but picked up a win against the Rangers in his last start..Twins are still the worst team in baseball and winning 4 games in a row seems like a stretch IMO..Hamels has been dialed on and one of the best guys since mid June. No reason for me to believe he wants revenge here against the Twins who tagged him last time out in Minnesota. Plenty of power here and the Rangers will be looking to even up this series here tonight.
Chase Diamond
Seattle at Kansas City
Play: Kansas City
Both team are battling for a wild card spot as the 43-43 Seattle Mariners take on the 44-41 Kansas City Royals. Mariners are 0-4 on their current road trip and the Royals look to win two games straight for the firs time since June 30th. Royals are 24-8 in Ventura's last 32 starts at home. Mariners blew a 3 run 9th inning lead and a'lot of clubs have lingering effects the next day. I love this low juice number with the Royals here at home. 65% of the public are backing the road Mariners
Rob Vinciletti
Diamondbacks vs. Giants
Play: Giants -150
The Giants have a pitching advantage with Samardjiza over Corbin who has a 5.53 era in his last 3 starts. The Giants fit a powerful 88% long term database system that plays on certain home favorites off a home favored win if they scored 5 or more runs in their last game, vs an opponent like Arizona that comes in off a home loss and scored 4 or less runs. Look for the Giants to take the opener.
Mike Lundin
Cubs vs. Pirates
Play: Over 7½
Both the Chicago Cubs and the Pittsburgh Pirates are coming off defeats. The Pirates fell 5-1 at St. Louis on Thursday while Chicago took a 4-3 beating by the Braves as a huge favorite, its seventh loss in eight games. I expect both teams to do better offensively Friday night.
The Cubs' Jake Arrieta (12-3, 2.33 ERA) gave up four runs and eight hits over 5 1/3 innings in Saturday’s 4-3 loss to the Mets. He's allowed a total of 11 runs (10 earned) on 16 hits and 11 walks in 15 1/3 innings in his last three starts combined.
The Pirates turn to Francisco Liriano (5-8, 5.34) who has recorded just one quality start over his last eight outings with at least four runs allowed in six of his last seven turns. The Cubs have reached him for 12 runs on 15 hits in 10 1/3 frames in two meetings this season.
Over is 7-1-2 in Cubs' last 10 road games and 8-0-1 in Arrieta's last nine road starts. Over is 15-6 in Pirates last 21 home games and 4-1 in Liriano's last five home starts. Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings at PNC Park.
Scott Spreitzer
Phillies vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies -127
Vince Velasquez pitched well his last two starts after coming off the disabled list but now he has to go to hitter-friendly Coors Field and the right-hander has a 5.02 ERA on the road compared to 1.54 at home. Last year against Colorado, Velasquez allowed five runs and seven hits in 4 2/3 innings. The Rockies won 11-2 last night for their fifth straight win versus Philadelphia dating to last season. Jon Gray is 5-4 with a 4.81 ERA but he is 3-0 at home and had a 3.77 ERA in June. Gray has allowed 20 earned runs in his last 50 1/3 innings with 48 strikeouts, which is excellent considering he pitches his home games in this stadium. The Rockies lost his last start 4-1 to the Dodgers, however, Gray gave up just three runs and six hits in six innings. Look for Colorado to make it two in a row over the Phillies.
Art Aronson
Nationals vs. Mets
Play: Under 6½
A couple of the best in the league go head to head on Friday night and we think we’ll have a classic pitchers duel on our hands. The visitors turn to Stephen Strasburg (11-0, 2.71 ERA), who most recently no hit Cincinnati over 6.2 innings while also striking out five on Sunday. His 123:28 K:BB ratio over 99.2 innings of work ranks among the best in the league and he’ll now be looking to improve upon his already spectacular 5-0, 2.11 ERA record on the road. The home side counters with Noah Syndergaard (9-3, 2.41) who comes in off a gem as well, allowing just one run while striking out eight in his team’s 14-3 win over Chicago on Sunday. Syndergaard is now 5-1 with a tiny 2.02 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season. Hits will indeed be at a premium tonight and with these two studs each looking to close the first half with a big winning effort, we’ll highly recommend a second look at the UNDER in this one.
Marc Lawrence
Chicago at Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh +164
Edges - Pirates: Francisco Liriano 9-0 last 9 team starts during July, and 7-0 last 7 home team starts during July, and 3.89 ERA home as opposed to 6.80 ERA away this season. Cubs: Jake Arrieta 7.86 ERA last two starts, and 11 BBs with 14 Ks last three starts. With the Pirates 5-1 this month and the Cubs 1-5 this July, we recommend a 1* play on Pittsburgh.
Larry Ness
Seattle vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City
The Kansas City Royals overcame a three-run, eighth-inning deficit with two runs in the bottom of the 8th and two more in the bottom of the 9th to earn a 4-3 win over the Mariners. The victory ended a four-game slide and tonight the Royals look to post back-to-back wins for the first time since June 29-30. The Royals had scored just NINE runs during their 4-game skid and were blanked by Seattle's James Paxton for 7.2 innings on Thursday before beginning their comeback. There are three games remaining in this four-game series that will conclude the unofficial first half of the season with the upcoming All Star break looming. Both teams still feel there is plenty of time to get back into their respective division races.
The 43-43 Mariners and 44-41 Royals are two of eight teams within 4 1/2 games of the AL wild-card lead. It’s just a few games past the midway point in the schedule, so it’s is no time to put extra pressure on this series, according to Kansas City manager Ned Yost. "I don't know how many times I have to go over this," he said before the game. "I don't feel (extra) urgency. The reason for that is that we feel urgency every day. We don't treat these situations with more urgency than any other situation. In a major league season, every game is important. Your mindset has to be that this is the most important game of the year. Tomorrow, that's going to be your mindset."
Hisashi Iwakuma (8-6, 4.43 ERA) takes the mound for Seattle and Yordano Ventura (6-6, 5.26 ERA) for Kansas City. Iwakuma is 7-2 over his last nine starts despite giving up 13 HRs during that stretch with a 4.47 ERA but it’s noteworthy that he has dominated Kansas City in four career starts, going 3-0 with a 1.61 ERA and 0.82 WHIP (Seattle is 4-0). Ventura has struggled while losing each of his last two outings, giving up 11 ERs on 11 hits (including three HRs) over just eight innings, posting a horrific 12.38 ERA. He never has defeated the Mariners, compiling an 0-3 record and 4.34 ERA in five career starts (Royals are 2-3).
Ventura has won 14 and 13 games the last two seasons, helping the Royals to back-to-back World Series (won in 2015). He has struggled in 2016 but my feeling is that he will get things straightened out. The bet here says I that bounce-back begins tonight.
MMA OddsBreaker
Cooper vs. Suarez
Pick: Under 2.5
Amanda Bobby Cooper and Tatiana Suarez both push a very high pace. They picked up several finishes on this past season of The Ultimate Fighter and Suarez in particular was extremely impressive. She didn't just take girls down with wrestling, she manhandled them and tossed them around the Octagon before submitting them. I expect Suarez will take advantage of Cooper's shaky takedown defense and eventually force her to succumb to a submission or ground and pound at some point before the midway point of the third round. Cooper is tough, but Suarez seems like her game is just on another level at this point.
Jim Feist
Mariners at Royals
Pick: Over
Seattle has a strong offense and the Over is 10-4-1 in the Mariners last 15 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Starter Hisashi Iwakuma is aging, with opponents hitting .287 off him. Iwakuma gave up four runs on 10 hits and no walks in six-plus innings Sunday in a win against the Orioles, 10-4. He struck out one. Iwakuma got hit hard, giving up three doubles and a two-run homer. The over is 7-3 when he starts. Yordano Ventura (5.26 ERA) continues to struggle, walking too many batters (39) in 87 innings while allowing 88 hits. He is off a pair of losses, 7-2 and 8-4. The Over is 7-2-1 in the Royals last 10 home games.
Matt Josephs
Padres vs. Dodgers
Play: Padres +1½
The Padres continued their success against lefties last night and face another one on Friday. Scott Kazmir is 7-3 with a 4.37 ERA in 17 starts for LA with nine of them going over the total. Kazmir saw the Pads twice already this season giving up five runs and four hits in just over 11 innings. San Diego is hitting .272 against left-handed starters going over in 16 of 25 contests. They are hitting .281 in their last seven games so a poor offense is actually in good form right now. Andrew Cashner is 3-6 with a 4.42 ERA in 12 starts for San Diego with half going over the total. Cashner has good numbers against Yasiel Puig (3-21), Corey Seager (1-6) and Chase Utley (2-8.). LA has lost three straight at home and are hitting just .237 this season. I think it's a big price that I'm willing to get a piece of with the runline.
Brandon Shively
Nationals vs. Mets
Play: Over 6½
The initial feeling on this game by the majority of bettors is going to be on the ‘under’ here with Stephen Strasburg and Noah Syndergaard on the mound, but I disagree. Looking at past scores this season when these two pitchers take mound, there have been a high percentage of game finishing with a total of 7 runs or more.
There has been a total of 7 or more runs in Stephen Strasburg’s last 14 starts this year! The only game that didn’t was his first start of the season. Much of this is because of the 7.07 runs of support he is getting this season. Do I expect him to get 7 runs of support against Noah Syndergaard?...No, but we only need 3 or 4 runs by each team and I think this can happen. Strasburg has given up 7 career home runs to the Mets, which is the 4th most out of the MLB teams he has faced. Current members of the Nationals are hitting .283 vs Strasburg with a .338 wOBA. The Mets are ranked 1st offensively in ‘WAR’ the last 7 days and rank 2nd in weighted on base average. They have hit 21 home runs in the last week also
It’s been made public about Syndergaard pitching with bone spurs. He made a start against the Nationals 11 days ago and didn’t make it to the 4th inning putting 10 runners on base and giving up 5 runs. Now, he followed that start up with a solid outing against the Cubs, but the 38.9% of hard ball he allowed was the 3rd highest percentage this season. A potential red flag in his last start also is that his velocity on his changeup was the lowest it had been all season long and there are a few other red flags I saw when looking more at his peripherals.
There has been a total of 7 runs or more scored in Syndergaard’s last eight starts and he has gotten an average of 6.1 runs of support in these 8 games, with 4 runs being the lowest and the OVER is 7-0 in his L7 starts overall. The OVER is 5-0 in Strasburg’s L5 starts against the Mets. The OVER is 8-3 in his 11 career starts vs the Mets and when the total is set at 6.5 or lower, the OVER is 6-1 with the only game going under being back in 2012. The Nationals have scored 3 or more runs in 10 of these 11 starts.
Both bullpens got used a lot last night after the starter’s got pulled and there could be a fatigue factor here. Neither pitcher is expected to go deep either as the Mets are being cautious with Syndergaard and the same can be said for Strasburg who is injury prone and the Nationals don’t want to overuse him.
Jimmy Boyd
Cardinals -125
St Louis is showing great value here as a small road favorite against the Brewers. The Cardinals snapped their mini 3-game skid and avoided getting swept at home with a 5-1 win over the Pirates on Thursday. I look for the Cardinals to carry over that momentum into Milwaukee, where they have won 16 of the last 22 meetings at Miller Park.
The Brewers will send out Jimmy Nelson, who has an impressive 2.40 ERA in 9 home starts, but is 0-5 with a 7.98 ERA and 1.637 WHIP in 6 career starts against the Cardinals. He also just faced St Louis on 7/2, so the Cardinals' hitters are going to be very familiar with his stuff.
St Louis will counter with Michael Wacha, who has won each of his last 3 starts and is 3-0 with a 3.20 ERA in 5 career starts against the Brewers. Keep in mind the Cardinals are scoring 6.0 runs/game on the road this season and Milwaukee is hitting just .250 and scoring 3.7 runs/game against right-handed starters. Brewers are also hitting just .232 and scoring 2.9 runs/game over their last 7.
Cardinals are 33-13 in their last 46 as a road favorite of -125 or more, 8-1 in their last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record, 12-3 in their last 15 against the NL Central, and 7-1 in Wacha's last 8 starts against a team with a losing record overall.
OSKEIM SPORTS
Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays -175
Detroit soft-tosser Mike Pelfrey is 2-7 with a 5.42 ERA and 1.78 WHIP this season, including going 1-5 at with a 5.34 ERA and 1.83 WHIP at night. Pelfrey's peripherals are equally as disturbing: 5.29 FIP, 5.06 xFIP and a 5.29 SIERA over 92.1 innings of work. The 32-year-old also possesses a woefully inadequate 10.5% K%, an 8.4% BB% and a 2.2% K-BB%. In his last two starts against the Blue Jays, Pelfrey has allowed a combined 11 runs (9 earned) in just 10 1/3 innings.
Meanwhile, Toronto's potent lineup is averaging 7.1 runs over the last seven games (.295 AVG.; .378 OBP; .846 OPS) so Pelfrey's disastrous 2016 campaign is certain to continue north of the border tonight. Let's also note that Detroit's bullpen owns an alarming 5.69 ERA and 1.61 WHIP on the road and a 5.40 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over the last seven games (21 2/3 IP; 13 ER; 22/10 K/BB). In contrast, Toronto relievers have posted a 2.49 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in their last seven games (25 1/3 IP; 7 ER; 24/4 K/BB).
Toronto southpaw J.A. Happ is just one win away from marching his career best of 12, which was set back in 2009 with the Phillies. Happ is 11-3 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.20 WHIP this season, including going 6-1 at home and 3-0 in his last three outings. Mediocrity defines the 33-year-old veteran, but his 4.21 FIP makes him a lot for serviceable than his counterpart. Happ has also displayed greater command and control, ate home (7.47 K/9 & 2.30 BB/9 vs. 6.18 K/9 & 2.87 BB/9 on the road).
The Blue Jays are 16-5 in Happ's last 21 starts versus teams with a winning record, including 11-1 in Happ's last 12 outings against .501 or greater opposition. Toronto stands at 39-15 in its last 54 home games versus teams with a losing record, 46-21 in its last 67 home games versus right-handed starters, 14-3 in its last 17 games versus starting pitchers with a WHIP exceeding 1.30 and 6-0 in its last six games overall (5-0 in Happ's L/5 starts). The Tigers have also lost six straight meetings in Toronto and have lost four of Pelfrey's last 5 road starts.
Finally, Detroit's crumbling bullpen could be missing right-hander Bruce Rondon, who was sent back to the team's hotel Thursday night with the flu. "He's been sick for a couple of days," Tigers manager Brad Ausmus said. "He was sick on the plane last night, too....We were short. That's why we were kind of stretching (Shane Greene) and Justin (Wilson) both, trying to get through. I think at the end, really, Justin was kind of out of gas, so we went to Alex (Wilson)."