Wunderdog
Tampa Bay @ Boston
Pick: Boston -114
Tampa Bay has lost 20 of its last 26 games after Thursday's 5-1 loss to the Los Angeles Angels. The Rays come off a 3-8 homestand after losing seven straight on the road. Chris Archer has a 6.65 road ERA and the Rays have lost eight of his last nine starts. Archer already has allowed 10 runs and 15 hits in 10 2/3 innings against the Red Sox this season and he is 0-6 against them the last three years, including a 5.65 ERA at Fenway Park. Sean O'Sullivan came through for Boston when they needed him to recover from a 21-2 loss to the Angels and he gave up just two runs and four hits in five innings the following day. The Sox have won three of their last four games.
Antony Dinero
Yankees at Indians
Play: Indians
The Indians fell in the series opener against the Yankees as Trevor Bauer suffered through a few rough middle innings and couldn't seriously put a dent in their bullpen. Although Corey Kluber has struggled with inconsistency this season, he's likely to handle the New York lineup well enough for his bats to get him an edge against spot starter Chad Green.
Jeff Alexander
Cubs -1.5 +108
The Cubs have been slumping and are coming off a painful loss last night to the Braves. Chicago needs their ace to deliver a dominant performance and I'm betting that he will. Arrieta is 8-1 with a 2.88 ERA in 9 road starts, 7-1 with a 2.34 ERA in 8 games against division opponents and 5-1 with 1.90 ERA in 7 night starts. Pirates will send out Francisco Liriano, who is in a major slump right now. Liriano has allowed 27 runs in his last 7 starts and has a 6.91 ERA and 1.745 WHIP in his last 3 outings. He's faced the Cubs twice this season and lost both by at least 5 runs, as he's allowed 12 runs on 15 hits (4 HRs) and 9 walks.
Steve Janus
Dodgers -1½ +112
Play Against - Road teams against a 1.5 run line (SAN DIEGO) - with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 7.00 the last 10 games, in the second half of the season. This system is 120-71 (63%) against the run line over the last 5 seasons (6-2 in 2016).
Jack Jones
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 +111
The Toronto Blue Jays are absolutely on fire right now. They have gone 6-0 in their last six games overall while outscoring opponents a combined 49-18.
They will keep swinging the bats well tonight against Detroit's Mike Pelfrey, who is 2-7 with a 5.42 ERA and 1.784 WHIP in 16 starts this season. Pelfrey is 0-1 with a 7.84 ERA in his last two starts against Toronto, giving up 9 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings.
J.A. Happ has been steady all season for the Blue Jays, going 11-3 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 17 starts. The Blue Jays have won 12 of his 17 starts overall, including 7 of his 8 home starts this season.
Toronto is 15-1 (+13.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Blue Jays are winning by an average of 4.1 runs per game in this spot. Toronto is 11-1 in Happ's last 12 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Brandon Lee
Blue Jays -1.5 +111
Toronto has won 6 straight and I look for them to add to it with a easy win at home today against the Tigers. In Toronto's last 14 wins, 13 have come by at least 2 runs, which is why I'm more than comfortable playing the -1.5 run line in this one. The Blue Jays will give the ball to J.A. Happ, who is coming off a dominant outing at home against the Indians, giving up just 1 run on 5 hits with 11 strikeouts in 7 innings of work. Detroit counters with Mike Pelfrey, who is 2-7 with a 5.42 ERA and 1.784 WHIP in 16 starts. He's yet to record a win on the road in 8 starts. The Blue Jays are also 6-1 at home against the Tigers over the last 3 seasons.
Dave Price
Minnesota Twins +163
Don't look now but the Minnesota Twins are actually starting to play their best baseball of the season. They have won 5 of their last 6 games coming in while scoring a combined 48 runs in the process. The Rangers have lost 7 of their last 9 games overall and are going in the other direction. I believe the match on the mound tonight is more even than this line indicates. Kyle Gibson is 2-0 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Gibson has been sneaky good against the Rangers, going 2-0 with a 2.02 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts against them. Cole Hamels sports a 3.99 ERA and 1.458 WHIP in 8 home starts this year. Hamels has never fared well against the Twins, going 1-1 with a 6.26 ERA and 1.609 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts. Texas is 14-35 (-22.8 Units) against the money line in home games after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. The Twins are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
Goodfella
Blue Jays TT Over 5.5
We fade Detroit SP Pelfrey here this evening. He really has struggled this season & sports a whopping (1.72) WHIP. These Blue Jays have had success vs him & I fully expect them to get to him eventually tonight. Then we get into that poor Tigers bullpen (who blew another game last night). We have a nice hitters venue here as well, as these Jays are extremely dangerous when playing at HOME. A tough matchup tonight for Pelfrey and this overall weak Tigers pitching staff IMO. I'm on the TORONTO Team Total OVER 5.5 runs in this spot on Friday Night.
Stephen Nover
Tampa Bay +101
I understand the Rays are 3-19 in their last 22 games. But I don't care if they were 0-22. The oddsmaker opened Boston - with Sean O'Sullivan on the mound - a favorite against Chris Archer. That's enough for me to take Tampa Bay.
Archer is displaying signs of finally coming around working 5 2/3 scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts against the Tigers in his last start this past Sunday. The Rays have their closer, Alex Colome, back, too. Colome has been outstanding with a 1.71 ERA and 19 saves.
The Rays have beaten Boston seven of the past nine times and are 5-1 in their last six games at Fenway Park.
But fading O'Sullivan is my main handicapping factor. The journeyman, with a career-mark of 13-23 and 5.99 ERA, shouldn't be in a big league rotation. But the Red Sox are desperate to shore up their back end so O'Sullivan is getting another chance.
Chris Jordan
Last month, there's no way I even sniff at this matchup, and consider siding against Chicago-ace Jake Arrieta. But today, with how the Cubs are playing and how Arrieta has been slumping, I don't mind playing the home underdog.
I love Pittsburgh's Francisco Liriano, who is out for revenge after his Pirates lost 6-0 to the Cubs and Arrieta the last time the Pirates' southpaw faced the Cubbies.
Arrieta fell behind against the Mets in his last start and admitted he needs to have a more aggressive approach, as he's failed to finish the sixth in his last three starts. I know he is 3-0 in as many starts against Pittsburgh this season, but Liriano will want this one.
And Pittsburgh's lefty picked up a win at Oakland on Sunday, allowing three runs on six hits over five innings. He will be motivated since in two starts versus the Cubs this season, he's 0-2 with a 10.45 ERA.
Take Pittsburgh and list both.
3* PIRATES
Brad Wilton
Friday comp play winner is to back Jose Fernandez at home on the Run Line as the Marlins host the Reds.
Let's face facts, Jose Fernandez - when healthy - is one of the best in the game at his craft, and he enters this contest at 10-4 for the season with an ERA of 2.69. That's good enough to earn him an All-Star selection for next week at Petco Park.
Better still is the fact that Fernandez is 24-1 with a 1.48 ERA in his home ball park for his career!!!!
Dan Straily has a lot to live up to matching pitches with Fernandez, and his 4-5 mark for the season with an ERA of 4.34 does not suggest that the Reds are going to be closer than 2 runs in tonight's series opener.
Miami has won 4 of the past 6 series meetings, with all 4 of the wins coming by 2 runs or more.
Cincy is just 15-36 their last 51 road games.
It all adds up to a Marlins win by at least 2 runs.
3* MIAMI -1.5
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 79-72 run with free picks: Tampa Bay at BOSTON (-110).
The STORYLINE in this game today - A battle of American League East rivals meet at Fenway Park, with the Tampa Bay Rays in town to face the Boston Red Sox. And this line is far too cheap to ignore, as I like the Red Sox to take advantage of a slumping Tampa team that has lost three in a row.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Boston - which is just three games back in a tightly contested East, behind first-place Baltimore and second-place Toronto - is 27-20 at home. The Sox just devoured the Rangers two nights ago, 11-6, and come into the weekend pumped after taking last night off. The momentum is the key, as it's on Boston's side.
BOTTOM LINE is - Tampa Bay has lost eight of 10, and is a disappointing 16-23 on the road. And now the Rays have to try to tame one of the hottest hitting teams this month, as the Red Sox rank No. 1 with a .366 batting average in July, while their 42 runs scored rank sixth. All Boston tonight with a cheap price, and don't bother listing pitchers.
5* BOSTON
Scott Delaney
My free winner is on the Kansas City Royals against the visiting Seattle Mariners, who have lost four straight. Kansas City was slumping terribly, and it appeared they'd be on their way to yet another loss until last night's walk-off win. This might be the streakiest team in the majors - both good and bad. But the Royals are desperate right now, and have a chance to end the first half of the season on a good note.
The Royals peaked at the end of May, with a six-game win streak that put them two games ahead in the AL Central on June 2 with a 30-22 mark. Since then, the defending World Series champs are mired in a 14-19 slide and are sitting in fourth place, seven games back of front-running Cleveland.
The Royals’ starters are allowing the highest home run rate in the American League, but today will be different. They have to approach this series with a sense of urgency.
Seattle is in third place in the AL West, and just finished up a series in Houston, where they lost three straight. The Mariners will struggle, still being on the road, and will lose for a second straight night at Kauffman.
1* ROYALS
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Royals over the Mariners.
Seattle is snake-bit on the road, that is for sure!
Last night the M's gave up a pair in the 8th, and a pair more in the 9th to get nipped 4-3. It marked the 16th time in their last 21 games away from home that they have suffered the loss.
As for the Royals, it pushed their home mark to 34-18 over their last 52 games at Kauffman Stadium.
For sure the pitching edge rests in the Mariners dugout, as Iwakuma has been throwing the ball very well of late with a 7-2 mark his past 9 starts, but as you saw last night, the Seattle bullpen is not 100% trustworthy.
Go with the strong home/away trend that I just listed, and play the Royals to get the job done once again on Friday.
2* KANSAS CITY
SPORTS WAGERS
KANSAS CITY -104 over Seattle
Yordano Ventura finally showed signs in June of being able to turn his season around with 7.8 K’s/9, 1.9 BB’s/9 and 53% groundballs. Ventura has posted a BB/K split of 4/23 over his past 26 innings covering five starts and his xERA over that span was 3.21. That any pitcher in the Royals' rotation is a dog at home against Hisashi Iwakuma is incorrect, let along Ventura.
Iwakuma has been on our fade radar for weeks now and we’re not about to relent. Like so many others in this league, Iwakuma relies only on the luck of batted ball variances for success. His skills are completely underwhelming. We’ll start with his batted ball profile of 38% grounders, 23% line-drives and 39% fly-balls. That’s a weak profile. His fastball now sits at an average of 86.7 MPH. Iwakuma’s swing and miss rate his last start was 3% and is now at 5% over his last five starts. Iwakuma’s xERA of 5.57 over his past eight starts is the bottom 10 among qualified starters. What is left is a whole lot of middle-of-the-road performances of which he will either get very lucky or not. Hisashi Iwakuma CANNOT be favored or evenly priced in Kansas City. That’s nuts.
L.A. Angels +110 over BALTIMORE
Matt Shoemaker keeps rolling along. He was one of the best SP in MLB during June (2.14 ERA, 1.07 WHIP), and his peripherals provided full support of those marks: 9.6 K’s/9, 1.1 BB’s/9, 45% grounders. His 15.2% swing and miss rate and 33% ball% were some of the best in the game too. Shoemaker’s off-speed stuff, that he can locate beautifully, has hitters guessing and it could be a nightmare matchup for a Baltimore lineup that has never seen a pitch they didn’t like.
If you’re a fan of the Baltimore Orioles and baseballs being hit really far and over outfield fences, then the month of June was lovely. Back in 1996, the Oakland A’s hit a record 55 home runs during the month of June, with the awesomely-named Geronimo Berroa’s 19th homer of the season being #55. Mark Trumbo’s homer on June 30 was Baltimore’s 55th of June so they officially equaled what that A’s team did 20 years ago. It’s not a huge shock that the Orioles have reached a power-hitting record. This team was built with the idea that they could mash their way to the top of the AL East, and it’s been working well so far. They’re leading baseball in homers, they’ve got the individual leader in homers, and they put up crooked numbers regularly. But like everything else, what goes up must come down and these Orioles are coming down quickly. This is a team of designated hitters that does not do anything well except hit home runs and protect leads in the eighth and ninth innings. After that, there are not many weaker teams’ in every other area than the Orioles so they are officially our top fade team in the second half when they are favored like they are here.
Ubaldo Jiminez wouldn’t be able to crack the Twins’ rotation, let alone anyone else’s rotation. We used to speculate on him but his 2H of last year and first half of this year told us why we shouldn't. Jimenez has a 1.92 WHIP after 16 starts. Four of those starts or one in four has been of the pure quality variety. Three out of every four starts have been of the disaster variety, which does not bode well against a hot-hitting team like the Angels. Over his last 24 frames, Jimenez has walked 16. He now has 48 walks in 80 innings and his 14% hr/f rate says a lot of those walks come around to score. Ubaldo’s 6.95 ERA says the same. Jimenez has produced negative results in four of the last five seasons and his 89-mph fastball so far in 2016 continues a gradual decline from its prior mid-90s peak. There are much better places to speculate than Jimenez and not many better to take a price back against.
San Diego +183 over LOS ANGELES
First and foremost, the Dodgers aren’t good enough to be priced in this range and neither is Scott Kazmir. Playing the 25th ranked schedule out of 30 teams, the Dodgers are 14-16 against top-15 teams and they have also dropped three in a row. Kazmir has seven pure quality starts in 17 games this season. He does have 101 K’s in 95 innings, which allows him to get out of jams on his own but he also walks too many batters and his fly-ball rate of 39% warns us that walks plus homers = runs scored. Kazmir has been tagged for 14 jacks already this year in 94 innings and there is a dramatic deterioration of strikeouts the second and third time through the order (11.6 to 6.7 to 5.6). Kazmir’s 4.37 ERA is legit and we’re not in favor of spotting close to 2-1 with a pitcher that is readily capable of giving up five runs each time he takes the mound.
The Padres are this year’s Rodney Dangerfield of MLB. Here’s a team that has won 11 of their past 17 games. After a horrible first month, San Diego has been very good ever since, ranking in the top 10 in just about every key offensive category, which includes team batting average (.274) and runs scored (third in MLB from May 15 to the present). Despite their modest success, the Padres come in underpriced almost daily and this is just another one of those times.
Andrew Cashner’s 4.47 ERA is almost identical to Scott Kazmir’s actual ERA. However, Cashner was dealing with some aggravating injuries and missed a month before returning against the Yankees on July 3. That was his first start back off the DL and he posted a very nice 13% swing and miss rate. Prior to his DL stint, his swing and miss rate was just 6%. That’s only one start but the Yankees have struck out the fourth least amount of times in the majors so that’s something. Cashner’s average velocity was 94 MPH in his return so there is that as well. We’re not saying that Cashner is going to dominate anyone right now based on one start. Thing is, Cashner compiled a 2.87 ERA in 2014 with the skills to back it up. In fact, few were better that year. He subsequently had a very rough 2015 season although he got crushed by left-handed bats and struggled with his control. Injuries also played a part. If he’s healthy and feeling like 2014 again, he could offer up some great value over the next few weeks. We already know that the Padres are undervalued and playing well and Cashner may be feeling really good too.