SPORTS WAGERS
OTTAWA -1½ over Calgary
Although it’s just two weeks in, if there is a superior team than the Redblacks in the CFL, we have not seen them yet and that's without the league's most outstanding player last year, Henry Burris. Hell, Smilin' Hank might not even be the best quarterback on this team anymore. Ottawa made a very savvy move in recruiting Trevor Harris and there has to be a team or two (lookin' at you Bombers) that would do anything right now to have the league leader in passing yards (687) and touchdowns (6) under center. The array of offensive weapons at Harris's disposal is almost unfair. Speedster Chris Williams is always a threat to break one and he's done so in two straight games. He leads the league in catches (15), yards (363) and touchdowns (3). His teammate, Brad Sinopoli is second in yards with 189. Ottawa is third in the league in rushing and that balance has allowed them to do pretty much anything they want offensively. The Redblacks have suffered injuries to their top two running backs this season but they always have somebody ready. This week it will be no different as Kienan LaFrance will step into the starter’s shoes. He can catch balls and has already found the end zone through the air this season. On the ground, LaFrance is averaging four yards per carry. It would appear to us that Ottawa has put a heavy emphasis on depth and it keeps paying off.
The Stampeders beat up on the Bombers last week and to that we say, “big deal”. Calgary looked awful in their 20-18 loss in B.C in Week 1 and therefore we won't be swayed after just one win against a sad sack squad like Winnipeg is. We saw B.C. dominate Hamilton last week and lose last night to the Argos. We saw Hamilton bury Toronto in Week 1 and then bet buried at home the very next week by B.C. We saw the Argonauts getting whacked by Hamilton in Week 1 and then come up big in Saskatchewan in Week 2. The point is that one good outing means nothing when a bad outing is also attached to it. Calgary had just one more first down than the Bombers did last week. Furthermore, Calgary is coming off back-to-back weeks of extremely poor fourth quarters. It cost them in a victory in Week 1 but went virtually unnoticed in Week 2 because of the big lead they had. It may not mean anything but then again it might. We pointed out last week that new Head Coach, Dave Dickenson’s first order of business was to change how the Stamps’ practice. Former coach, John Hufnagel was notoriously old school with brutal two-a-days that players hated, especially the vets. This spring, Calgary moved to a single practice that would allow players more free time away from the field since they'd be wrapping up football activities much earlier. Are we seeing the effects of that? We very well could be.
The Stamps still have a ton of pedigree in the marketplace, which puts their stock higher than it should be. That makes us sellers. Bo Levi Mitchell is fifth in the league in passing, trailing the likes of Kevin Glenn and Jeremiah Masoli, not exactly elite company. He's thrown for just three touchdowns this season, half as many as his counterpart this week. By contrast, Ottawa still has expansion status by many in the market. While that is somewhat true in the literal sense, the product on the field is as good as or better than any team in this league. Ottawa has played not one, but two outstanding games thus far and both were on the road. No other team can make that claim and that’s something we’re not going to ignore. If this game was scheduled in Calgary, the Stamps would be anywhere from a -4½-point choice to a -6-point choice. Ottawa at home absolutely deserves that same respect but they are not getting it because of pedigree. We now get the host at a deflated price, which is something we will attempt to take advantage of.
Saskatchewan @ EDMONTON
Emotions are going to be running high Friday night in the Alberta capital, as the Esks’ welcome their former coach Chris Jones back to Commonwealth Stadium. Jones led the Eskimos to the Grey Cup last season but split for greener pastures, a promotion and a big fat pay cheque in Regina. Jason Maas took over and Edmonton really didn’t miss a beat in their opening game OT loss to a very good Ottawa team. Grey Cup MVP, Mike Reilly threw for 383 yards while hitting seven different receivers in Week 1. The Eskimos played well enough to win but didn’t get the bounce at the right time. Coming off a tough loss, off for two weeks and wanting to stick it to their former coach, Edmonton appears primed for a strong showing. However, to bet Edmonton here, you would have to pay a premium and that’s something we rarely recommend doing. This isn’t a recommendation against Edmonton, it’s simply a recommendation to take back inflated points.
The Saskatchewan Roughriders were dreadful last year, as they opened the season 0-9 and eventually finished up with a 3-13 record. Their biggest off-season acquisition wasn't a man that can throw or catch a football, it was luring coach Chris Jones away from Edmonton fresh off his Grey Cup victory. The Riders threw a boatload of money at Jones but after Week 1 it looks like perhaps they should have spent their money on some guys that could hold on to the football. Both Rob Bagg and Nate Roosevelt lost fumbles and the Roughriders could not finish drives in their opening 30-17 home loss to the Argos. Throw in last week’s result with last year’s results and what we have here is inflated points on the Riders. Now Saskatchewan goes from a 5½-point favorite over Toronto to a 10-point dog in the span of one week. That’s a 15-point swing in a very competitive league. Let us point out that results don’t always tell the story of what occurred on the field. Saskatchewan had 24 first downs to Toronto’s 11. They Riders also had 216 return yards, not to mention 389 yards in the air to the Argos 259. On the scoreboard, Toronto beat Saskatchewan by 13 points. On the football field, the Riders dominated play and should have won by 28 points. Now they’re getting 10.
For us, we truly believe the right play is the Riders. However, with all the sub-plots here, we don’t have as much conviction about it as we would like to have to bet it. Therefore, we are going to sit this one and make it a non-wager. NO BETS
SPORTS WAGERS
Thiago Tavares +175
Friday night's Ultimate Fighter Finale will be all about the completion of another season of the prospect competition, culminating in the Woman's Straw weight championship. Before this, there are a handful of very good fights, highlighted by this featherweight gem between Brazilian veteran Thiago Tavares and South Korean super prospect Doo Ho Choi.
Choi enters his third UFC bout following two quick knockout wins over Sam Sicilia, and Juan Puig. Overall, the 13-1 Choi is riding an 11-fight win streak consisting of nine knockout finishes. This kid has very good power for this weight class and is drawing mass appeal from fans and from the UFC, as he begins his rise into the division's rankings. Prior to Choi's UFC debut, he dominated the Japanese based "Deep" fighting organization. The level of competition in Deep is not very impressive to put it politely, however, for a fighter in his early 20's to dominate as he did, IS very impressive. In Choi's UFC debut, he was pitted vs. fellow newcomer Juan Puig. Puig was a low level competitor on the Ultimate fighter 19, and had the pleasure of being knocked out in the first round by Adriano Martins in his official debut, before being knocked out in the first round to Choi 10 months later. Puig has not fought for the UFC since. In Choi's second UFC appearance, he was gifted a perfect matchup in his home country on the main card vs. Sam Sicilia. Sicilia is a striker as well, and attempted to go toe to toe with Choi with a significant reach disadvantage but his night was over in a hurry. Sicilia's career has been sprinkled with wins over bottom of the barrel UFC fighters, many of which are not under contract currently by the UFC. While it's impossible to take away from Choi's accomplishments, it's very clear that he is being given every opportunity to succeed with a cupcake matchup vs. Puig and an overwhelming situational advantage over Sicilia.
As seen in the UFC over the years, these amazing prospects get themselves into difficult situations where they rise too fast, and face greater competition that are above their learning curve. The flashy first round knockouts do not help curb this trend, as fight promoters can't wait to get these guys in the spotlight as often as possible and eventually groom them for eventual title contention. Most recently, 20-year-old Super Sage Northcutt was a 12-1 favorite over Cody Pfister, and while he overcame a few massive mistakes to get a second round finish, he was way overpriced and could very well have lost to anyone not name Cody Pfister. Following this victory, the UFC's most glowing prospect was a large -350 favorite over Bryan Barberena. This time the mistakes that Northcutt made cost him, as he was submitted in the second round by the much more diverse, experienced fighter. Everyone wants to key in on the kids with championship potential, and the result is extremely overpriced kids, taking on experienced men that are not one trick ponies.
Enter Thiago Tavares. Tavares has been fighting in the UFC for 10 years. He has compiled a 10-6-1 record in the UFC, and is 5-2 in his past five years of high level competition. Tavares is not a striker, but a powerful grappler, specializing in Muay Thai, and submissions. In his recent run, Thiago has accumulated wins over Clay Guida, Sam Stout, Justin Salas, and a couple of lesser known UFC fighters. What stands out in his recent fight history is his two losses. In January 2013, Tavares was pitted against the now #1 ranked 23-0, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and in June of 2015, Tavares battled #10 ranked 11-0, Brian Ortega. While the loss to Khabib was not a close fight, the fight vs. Ortega was in the hands of Tavares, before Ortega pulled out what is becoming his trademark, the late third round finish. While the result is what it is, Tavares should have beaten Ortega, and would/should be in the rankings for the featherweight division. Losing to two undefeated featherweights has everyone overlooking the 31 year old Brazilian, but impressive first round submissions in each of his past three wins, should have Tavares in the rankings, and realistically, in the top 10.
This fight is being viewed as another stepping stone for 'Korean Superboy' Doo Ho Choi, however, the more experienced, better overall fighter Thiago Tavares will not be walked over. The great unknown here will be how Choi deals with a world class Muay Thai artist, and what happens when he is taken down. While Choi will be swinging for the fences early and often, Tavares will be planning the takedown that could end the match in a hurry, or pacing himself to a grappling showcase victory. Choi does have the ability to win this fight in the fashion that the odds are indicating but he is extremely overpriced due to the hype, and could find himself on his back early and often. Tavares just might be the best value on Friday's card.
Bob Balfe
Red Sox -115
This is another one of those games I am going in with basic simple logic. There is no need to out think ourselves. Tampa stinks. Tampa struggles scoring runs so they pretty much have to pitch flawless and play a perfect game to win a low scoring affair. I don’t like their chances and at basically even money I will go with the home team that has been hitting the ball very well.
Harry Bondi
Philadelphia / Colorado Over 11.5
Coors Field in Denver has always been an over park but lately it has been ridiculous! Since June1, 70% of the games at Coors have gone over the total and tonight's match-up between Philly and the Rockies looks like another one. Both teams are starting young quality pitchers but going inside the numbers we find that 7 of the last 9 of Phillies starter Vince Velasquez starts have gone over the total and 7 of the last 9 of Rockies starter Jon Gray starts have also gone over! In addition, 7 of the last 8 games at Coors have, you guessed it gone over. Again tonight it's OVER.