Free Picks for Friday, June 16th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
GIANTS AT ROCKIES
PLAY: GIANTS -101
Jeff Samardzija might be just 2-8 pitcher for the Giants. But he’s pitching good baseball, and is commanding all five of his pitches. He’s simply not getting anything in the way of good fortune.
But I believe there’s now some real value in backing Samardzija as bettors are simply looking at the 2-8 record and betting against him. I can virtually guarantee that the Rockies will be one of the two highest ticket percentage counts on the Friday schedule.
Buster Posey will be sitting out this game for the Giants, but I think you’ll see the sharper dollars on San Francisco here. The early money line movement indicates just that, with the price having dropped a couple of pennies.
I might as well add that I believe we’re starting to see what I feel is an inevitable regression on the part of Rockies rookie righty Antonio Senzatela.
The oddsmakers are speaking with the line being where it is for this game. The Giants are a bad road team, and they’ve got a 2-8 pitcher on the hill against a Colorado entry that has been a cash cow all season. I’ll fade the public here and will back the Giants to get the win tonight at Coors.
Scott Rickenbach
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies
Play: Under 9
The Phillies finally snapped their 8-game losing streak yesterday with a 1-0 win versus the Red Sox. However, Philadelphia only managed 4 hits in the game and they've averaged just 2.4 runs per game in their last 10 games! They struggled with Chris Sale yesterday and face another southpaw, Patrick Corbin, today. The Phils are hitting just .228 against left-handed pitching this season. As for the Diamondbacks, they were off yesterday but are in the midst of an 8-game road trip. Arizona is hitting only .226 on the road this season. They'll be facing Aaron Nola of the Phillies and he's been cranking back into solid form. Nola has allowed just 4 earned runs on 9 hits while striking out 12 in the 13 innings spanning his last two starts. The under is 9-5 this season when Arizona enters a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Also, the under is 21-11 this season in Diamondbacks road games. The Phillies have had just 1 over in their last 9 games!
Mike Lundin
Dodgers vs. Reds
Play: Over 9½
The Los Angeles Dodgers are coming off a 12-5 loss at Cleveland on Thursday while the Cincinnati Reds return home following an 0-6 road trip. Over is 4-0 in the last four head-to-head meetings and I expect plenty of runs again Friday night.
Tim Adleman (4-2, 4.34 ERA) takes the ball for Cincinnati. He allowed three runs (two earned, both solo homers) on five hits in five innings against the Dodgers on June 11 (9-7 Dodgers win). Over is 6-2 in Adleman's last eight home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
The Dodgers hand the ball to left-hander Alex Wood (6-0, 2.01 ERA) who was tagged with three runs on five hits in 5 2/3 innings against the Reds on June 10 (5-4 Dodgers win). Over is 6-2 in Wood's last eight starts overall. The Reds have the second best batting average against southpaws in the National League this season.
Over is 6-0 in Dodgers last six overall. Over is 4-1-1 in Reds last six overall.
Cappers Club
Indians vs. Twins
Play: Over 10
The Cleveland Indians and the Minnesota Twins start a four game series on Friday night, and the over has a ton of value in this one.
On the mound for the Twins is Nik Turley who is making his second start of his career. In his first start he only made it four innings giving up eight hits and four runs.
I expect another short start in this one for Turley, which spells trouble for the Twins. Their biggest weakness is in their bullpen and I would expect them to have to throw a few too many innings in this one.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the Indians cover the over in this one by themselves. They really got their bats going on Thursday against the Dodgers and I think they will use the momentum in that game to get to the Twins early.
Some trends to note. Over is 6-1-1 in Indians last 8 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Over is 5-1-1 in Twins last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Ben Burns
White Sox vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -148
Toronto Blue Jays. Joe Biagini is just 1-5 as a Toronto starter despite posting a solid 3.38 ERA. In his last outing on Friday against the Mariners he gave up three runs off five hits while striking out five over seven innings of work. Over his last three games he’s posted a 2.70 ERA and 18:4 K:BB (all quality outings). Biagini has struggled on the road (5.52 ERA), but has been dominant in front of the home town crowd (1.01 ERA). Chicago counters with the struggling Jose Quintana (2-8, 5.30) who in his last start looked decent, but who overall has been a big disappointment (note that he’s been particularly pedestrian in this spot all year as well, just 1-4 with a ballooned 4.79 ERA on the road). Ultimately I think this a bigger mismatch than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. Consider a second look at the Blue Jays in this one.
Marc Lawrence
Royals vs. Angels
Play: Angels -118
Edges - Angels: Chavez 3.47 ERA home as opposed to 6.27 ERA away this season; and 4-1 last 5 team starts during June… Royals: Kennedy 2-5 with 8.22 ERA and 1.50 WHIP last 7 overall team starts; and 0-3 career team starts in this park. With that look for the Halos to make it 4 straight home wins over the Royals here tonight. We recommend a 1* play on the L.A. Angels.
Art Aronson
Dodgers vs. Reds
Play: Under 9½
Wood: He’s 6-0 with a 2.01 ERA. Wood made a successful return from the DL by going six innings and giving up three runs off five hits while issuing zero walks and striking out seven against the Reds on Saturday. Note that he’s 1-0 with a 2.21 ERA on the road this year.
Adleman: He’s 4-2 with a 4.34 ERA. Adleman has looked better of late, most recently giving up one run off three hits and two walks over seven innings in victory over St. Louis last Tuesday. Wood owns a 4.13 ERA at home thus far.
The bottom line: Note that LA has already seen the total go UNDER the number in 17 of 31 on the road this season, while Cincinnati has seen the total go UNDER in two of its last three when playing with a day off. Both teams have been playing to some higher-scoring affairs of late, but we think these competent hurlers will battle deep into this one and we ultimatley expect this total to fall below this sky-high number once it’s all said and done. Consider a second look at the UNDER in this one.
Rob Vinciletti
Los Angeles vs. Cincinnati
Play: Los Angeles -170
The Dodgers have won the first 3 vs the Reds this season and fit a powerful 92% system that plays on road favorites that are off a 5+ run road loss scoring 5+ runs vs an opponent like Cincy that is off a road loss. The Reds have lost 9 of 13 off 3+ losses and 12 of 15 vs left handers. They take on A. Wood who has a solid 2.21 Era and is 3-0 vs the Reds and the Dodgers have enough fire power to get to Adelman pitching for the Reds. Look for the Dodgers to take the opener.
Jim Feist
Royals at Angels
Pick: Over
Kansas City's offense has had a great week, 6-0 over the total on the road. They will need to stay hot with Ian Kennedy (0-6, 5.46 ERA) on the mound, with the team 6-0-1 over when he starts. The 32-year-old's 5.40 ERA is his worst mark for any season with 10-plus starts, and his 49-28 strikeout to walk ratio is poor. The LA Angels are 9-4 over the total against the righty, plus 23-8-2 over at home against a team with a losing record. Starter Jesse Chavez (5.06 ERA) has a losing record and gave up 6 runs in 3+ innings his last start.
Mike Davis
Chicago at Toronto
Play: Toronto
There is a lot of value in this selection as Toronto has played much better baseball as of late and they have an underrated pitcher on the mound tonight. Biagini is just 1-5 on the season but he has been so much better than that as of late. In his last three starts, he has pitched a total of 20 innings allowing 16 hits and just six earned runs. The Blue Jays are off Thursday night and I look for them to be focused on this weekend series against Chicago. Chicago sends Jose Quintana to the mound and he isn't striking fear in anyone at this time. He is 2-8 with a 5.30 era this year and I look for the resurgent Blue Jays to have some very good at-bats against the left-hander Friday night. The Blue Jays were at their best the past couple of seasons against left-handed pitchers. That hasn't been the case so far this season but they certainly looked good against one of the best lefties (Paxton) around last Sunday. Toronto is turning the corner and I look for them to make a big run at a playoff spot as the season progresses. I will look to get my money in good with them in certain situations and I love this spot Friday night.
Strike Point Sports
Arizona at Philadelphia
Play: Over 9
Philadelphia's offense got off to a rough start with many of their regulars not producing and struggling at the plate. They are slowly turning things around and getting more production from their younger core guys and facing Patrick Corbin in Philadelphia could certainly help that. Corbin has been atrocious on the road going 0-5 with a 9.00 ERA on the season. He has allowed 25 earned runs (4 more unearned) over 25 innings with opponents batting .357 off him in opponents' stadiums. Luckily for Corbin, Arizona has been one of the best offenses in the majors scoring the 5th most runs in all of baseball. Aaron Nola should help the D'backs add to their run total as he has allowed 8 runs over two starts at home so far this season. I think the total will be around 9 and these teams will go over that.
Chip Chirimbes
Boston vs, Houston
Play: Boston +113
The Houston Astros have been without a doubt the 'best' team in baseball this season but have fallen upon difficult times the past week. They still have the best record in MLB but have lost six of their last eight and four of their last five as they host the Red Sox. Drew Pomeranz (6-4, 4.48 ERA) will get the nod for Boston and even with his getting shelled last time out he is 2-1 with a 3.81 ERA in his last three starts. Houston will start Mike Fiers (4-2, 4.29) who is off his best start of the season defeating the Angels but will come back to the pack here.
Chris Jordan
My free play tonight is on the Milwaukee Brewers on the Run Line, over the visiting San Diego Padres.
I have been someone who has taken advantage of the Padres' good fortune at home recently, with huge series wins over the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds. But when the Friars hit the road, it's downright sinful to believe they can win.
I'd much rather side with the National League Central-leading Brewers, who will carry momentum over to the weekend, after rallying late for a 6-4 victory at St. Louis, where they won another series from the Cardinals for the second time in the 2017 campaign.
Sitting in front of the Chicago Cubs by 2 1/2 games in the Central, and the defending World Series champs in Pittsburgh for a tough divisional series with the Pirates, I think the Brewers have a good shot at extending their division lead.
Tonight's game will set the tone, so let's bank on a blowout win.
1* BREWERS -1.5
Jeff Benton
Friday freebie is the Dodgers to dominate the Reds one more time.
L.A. just swept 3 from Cincy at Dodgers Stadium, as Los Angeles has now won 8 of the last 10 against Cincinnati with 6 of those 8 wins coming by 2 runs or more.
The Dodgers just took 2 of 3 in Cleveland against the Indians, while the Reds are mired in a 6 game slide and will send Tim Adleman to the hill to face the undefeated Alex Wood who stands now at 6-0 for the year.
Wood came off the DL and picked up a no-decision his last time out against the Reds, as he allowed 3 runs in his 5-plus innings worked.
Adleman also got a ND in his start last week against the Dodgers, as he allowed 3 runs in his 5 innings worked.
I know Wood is not going through the season unblemished, but right now his team is blowing hot, while the Reds are blowing cold.
Back Los Angeles to win it by at least 2 runs.
2* L.A. DODGERS -1.5