Eric Schroeder
Tonight my free play is on the Over in the same matchup, as I once again will go with a high-scoring game, as the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies are going to tee off, in tonight's game in Denver, as I see both pitchers getting chased early in this one.
I'll make this short and sweet, as I'd like to enjoy my trip in New York City, rather than sit behind a keyboard.
I'm not a fan of Samardzjia, who picked up his eighth loss against the Minnesota Twins last Saturday, even though his pitching coach believes he threw with authority. He allowed three runs on four hits in six innings, but he constantly gets touched up and loses.
The right-hander is 1-2 with a 3.57 ERA in his last three starts, and tonight he faces one of the most lethal lineups in baseball, and I don't think he makes it out of the fourth inning.
As for Senzatela, the rookie right-hander has been tattered of late, and brings in a rather high 6.46 ERA in his last three starts over 15.1 innings. And with the Giants ranking eighth in the bigs with a .286 batting average in June, it will be a short night for Colorado's right-hander.
Expect this one to go high tonight.
5* Giants/Rockies Over
Jack Brayman
Now on a 6-3 run with my complimentary plays and I want you to play the Colorado Rockies over the San Francisco Giants, for your free winner tonight.
Last night the Rockies jumped out to a 9-1 lead in the series-opener, and held on for a 10-9 win. That has to sting for the Giants, who hand the ball to the brutal Jeff Samardzija (2-8, 4.31 ERA).
Thing is, I don't care about listing Samardzija or Colorado starter, rookie rookie Antonio Senzatela. Fact is, the Giants have lost three in a row, and are in a tough place to play against a first-place team.
The Rockies, who lead the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers by a game in the National League West, have won two straight and seven of 10. They're also 18-13 at home this season.
Frisco, on the other hand, is in the division cellar, and in addition to the three-game slide has lost seven of 10.
Take Colorado tonight, straight action.
3* ROCKIES
Brad Wilton
Friday comp play is Over in the Giants-Rockies game.
Last night these teams opened their series at Coors Field with some big-time fireworks, hanging 19 runs combined on the scoreboard.
Now 3 of the last 4 series meetings between these N.L. West rivals have landed Over the total.
As for the Giants, they have now played 4 straight Over the posted price, and 5 of their last 7 overall Over the total. Starter Jeff Samardzija has seen 2 of his last 3 starts also play Over the total.
Colorado's Antonio Senzatela has also seen 2 of his last 3 starts play Over the total, and the Over stands at 8-5 for the season when he takes the hill, with 5 of his 7 home starts this year landing in the Over column.
Let's call for more runs in Colorado tonight.
4* SAN FRANCISCO-COLORADO OVER
Rocketman
Washington @ New York
Play: Washington -140
The Washington Nationals travel to New York to take on the Mets on Friday night. Washington is 40-26 SU overall this year while the NY Mets come in with a 30-35 SU overall record on the season. Max Scherzer is 7-4 with a 2.36 ERA overall this year, 5-1 with a 1.95 ERA on the road this season and 2-1 with a 1.16 ERA his last 3 starts. Scherzer is 6-4 with a 2.44 ERA in his 12 career starts vs NY Mets. Washington is scoring 5.5 runs per game overall this year, 5.6 runs per game on the road this season, 5.5 runs per game on grass, 6.2 runs per game at night and 5.5 runs per game against division opponents. Washington is 4-0 when playing at NY Mets this season. Washington is 28-10 this year when playing at night. We'll recommend a small play on Washington tonight!
STEVE JANUS
Cardinals vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles +118
Play On - Home teams (BALTIMORE) - average AL offensive team (scoring 4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against a good NL starter (ERA 3.70 or better), with a starting pitcher whose gives up 7 or more hits/start. This system is 34-10 (77%) against the money line since 1997.
BRANDON LEE
Mariners vs. Rangers
Play: Mariners -126
This just missed out on the premium card. The Mariners are certainly worth a look with their best starter of 2017 (James Paxton) on the mound against Tyson Ross, who is making his first start since April of 2016 (only start that entire season). Paxton wasn't sharp in his last start, but is still a dominant 5-1 with a 2.25 ERA in 9 starts. While he's been a little better at home, he's got a sensational 2.60 ERA in 3 road starts. Adding even more value here is the fact that Paxton has a solid track record against Texas. He's made 8 starts in his career against the Rangers and has posted a 2.49 ERA in those outings. Despite scoring just 2 runs on 6 hits in yesterday's loss to the Twins, Seattle's offense is coming off a 4-game set in which they totaled 29 runs on 51 hits. I'll take my chances they get to what figures to be a rusty Ross.
RAY MONOHAN
Nationals / Mets Under 7.5
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Washington Nationals and the New York Mets face off on Friday night and even with the total at 7.5, the under has a ton of value. On the mound for the Nationals is Max Scherzer, who has been his dominant self again this year. He has a 7-4 record and an ERA of 2.36.
In his last four starts he has gone at least seven innings in each game and given up a total of four runs. On the mound for the Mets is Steven Matz who was really good in his only start this season. He went seven innings giving up five hits and one run. I think he will build off that and slow down the Nationals offense in this one. Some trends to note. Under is 5-0 in Scherzers last 5 starts on grass. Under is 5-0 in Mets last 5 vs. National League East.
LARRY WALLACE
Giants vs. Rockies
Play:Rockies -107
Senzatela this year is 8-2 with a 3.84 ERA. Samardzija hasn't been good this year with a 2-8 record and a 4.31 ERA. The Giants are 1-5 in their last 6 games overall. The Rockies are 7-1 in their last 8 games following a victory.
DOC'S SPORTS
Yankees vs. Athletics
Play: Yankees -124
The New York Yankees visit O.co Coliseum on Friday, June 16, 2017 to play the Oakland Athletics. The probable starters are Luis Severino for the Yankees and Sean Manaea for the Athletics.
The opening line for this matchup has New York at -145 and Oakland at +135. The Yankees have a 36-27-0 over/under record and a 40-23-0 run line mark. The Athletics are 32-33-0 against the run line and have a 37-26-2 over/under record.
Valuable New York Yankees Betting Trends
The New York Yankees are 36-27-0 against the over/under
The New York Yankees are 40-23-0 against the run line
Important Oakland Athletics Betting Trends
The Oakland Athletics are 37-26-2 against the over/under
The Oakland Athletics are 32-33-0 against the run line
Useful Pitching Statistics
The Yankees have a 38-25 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Luis Severino has a 5-2 record with an earned run average of 2.75 and a WHIP of 1.02. He has 84 strikeouts over his 75.1 innings pitched and he's given up 59 hits. He allows 7 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 3.25. The bullpen has an earned run average of 2.93 and they have given up 146 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .197 against the bullpen and they've struck out 223 hitters and walked 78 batters. As a team, New York allows 7.8 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.2 batters per nine innings. They are 3rd in the league in team earned run average at 3.58. The Yankees pitchers collectively have given up 491 base hits and 225 earned runs. They have allowed 73 home runs this season, ranking them 23rd in the league. New York as a pitching staff has walked 182 batters and struck out 576. They have walked 2.9 men per 9 innings while striking out 9.2 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.19 and their FIP as a unit is 3.83.
For expert handicapping advice on this matchup and other MLB games check out our handicapping tips.
Hitting Statistics
As a team New York is hitting .275, good for 2nd in the league. The Yankees hold a .472 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .352, which is good for 1st in baseball. They rank 1st in MLB with 9.7 hits per game. Starlin Castro is hitting .323 with an on-base percentage of .364. He has 82 hits this season in 254 at bats with 41 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .520 and an OPS+ of 129. Aaron Judge is hitting .338 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .443. He has totaled 75 hits and he has driven in 49 men in 222 at bats. His OPS+ is 195 while his slugging percentage is at .703. The Yankees have 610 hits, including 107 doubles and 105 home runs. New York has walked 251 times so far this season and they have struck out 555 times as a unit. They have left 472 men on base and have a team OPS of .824. They score 5.79 runs per contest and have scored a total of 365 runs this year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
Oakland has a 27-38 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 3.67, Sean Manaea has a 6-3 record and a 1.06 WHIP. He has 66 strikeouts over the 61.1 innings he's pitched. He's also given up 41 hits. He allows 6 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.45. The bullpen has an earned run average of 5.07 and they have given up 214 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .252 against the Athletics bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 204 batters and walked 85 opposing hitters. As a team, Oakland allows 8.8 hits per nine innings while striking out 8 batters per nine innings. They are 24th in the league in team earned run average at 4.83. The Athletics pitchers as a team have surrendered 556 base knocks and 305 earned runs this season. They have given up 77 home runs this year, which ranks 18th in Major League Baseball. Oakland as a staff has walked 212 hitters and struck out 506 batters. They give up a walk 3.4 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.35 while their FIP as a staff is 4.38.
Hitting Statistics
As a team, they are batting .239, good for 27th in the league. The Athletics hold a .426 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .306, which is good for 26th in baseball. They rank 28th in MLB with 8.0 hits per contest. Yonder Alonso comes into this matchup batting .303 with an OBP of .398. He has 54 hits this year along with 36 RBI in 178 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .635 with an OPS+ of 179. Jed Lowrie is hitting .290 this season and he has an OBP of .358. He has collected 69 hits in 238 at bats while driving in 22 runs. He has an OPS+ of 129 and a slugging percentage of .479. The Athletics as a unit have 520 base hits, including 118 doubles and 92 homers. Oakland has walked 201 times this year and they have struck out on 597 occasions. They have had 411 men left on base and have an OPS of .731. They have scored 4.22 runs per game and totaled 274 runs this season.
JIMMY BOYD
Marlins vs. Braves
Play: Braves -114
I really like the value here with Atlanta as a short home favorite against the Marlins. The Braves are returning home feeling pretty good about themselves, as they just crushed the Nationals 13-2 on Wednesday to take 2 of 3 on the road against 1st place Washington. I like there chances of keeping that momentum going at home with the edge they will have on the mound.
Sean Newcomb will toe the rubber for Atlanta in what will be his second career big-league start. He lost his first start, but he certainly wasn't to blame, as he allowed 1 run (unearned) on 4 hits with 7 stirkeouts in 6 1/3 innings of work. He will be up against Daniel Straily of Miami, who is 1-3 with a 5.91 ERA and 1.344 WHIP in 6 road starts. Straily also owns an ugly 7.72 ERA in two career starts against the Braves (both in the last two years).
TONY STOFFO
Mariners vs. Rangers
Play: Mariners -126
Seattle hands the ball to LH James Paxton, 5-1, 2.25 ERA, who dominated the Rangers on April 15 with eight scoreless innings of two-hit ball. The Mariners are 5-2 in their last 7 road games and 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Texas trots out RH Tyson Ross for his seasonal debut. He was not very impressive in four rehab starts at Triple-A Round Rock as he allowed eight runs and three homers in his last turn. The Rangers are 2-7 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 1-5 in their last 6 home games.
JACK JONES
White Sox vs. Blue Jays
Play: White Sox +155
The Chicago White Sox are showing great value as big road underdogs to the Toronto Blue Jays today. They just took three out of four from Baltimore last series and now have their best starter on the mound in Jose Quintana for Game 1 of this series with Toronto.
Quintana hasn't been his best thus far, but the Blue Jays are hitting just .222 and scoring 3.7 runs per game against left-handed starters. That could help explain why Quintana has owned the Blue Jays, going 5-2 with a 1.67 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in eight career starts against them.
Joe Biagini gets the ball for Toronto and shouldn't be getting this much respect from oddsmakers. He is 1-4 with a 3.38 ERA in seven starts this season.
Toronto is 1-8 in its last nine home games vs. a left-handed starter. The White Sox are 5-0 in Quintana's last five starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Blue Jays are 1-4 in Biagini's last five starts. Chicago is 7-1 in the last eight meetings, including 4-0 in the last four meetings in Toronto.
JOHN MARTIN
Dodgers vs. Reds
Play: Reds +159
The price on the Cincinnati Reds today at home is too good to pass up. The Reds have gone a solid 19-15 at home this year, and the Dodgers are just a mediocre 16-16 on the road. The Reds had yesterday off to recover and try and bounce back from their current six-game losing streak, while the Dodgers played yesterday in Cleveland. Tim Adleman has pitched great for the Reds of late, going 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his last four starts while allowing just 6 runs in 26 innings. One of those starts was against the Dodgers as the Reds blew a 7-3 lead in that game on June 11th. Adleman is now 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in two career starts against the Dodgers. The Dodgers are 1-6 in Wood's last seven road starts, and 0-6 in his last six road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Reds are 4-0 in Adleman's last four home starts.
DAVE PRICE
Royals vs. Angels
Play:Royals +104
The Kansas City Royals are flying under the radar right now. They have won 5 straight with 4 of those coming as underdogs, and they have scored at least 7 runs in all 5 wins. Their lineup is heating up and they're right in the thick of the AL Central race now. The Angels are still without Mike Trout and today's starter in Jesse Chavez has a 4.89 ERA in 13 starts this year. Ian Kennedy faced the Angels on April 16th earlier this season, pitching 8 shutout innings while allowing only 4 base runners and striking out 10 in a 1-0 victory for Kansas City. The Royals are 10-1 in their last 11 during game 2 of a series. The Royals are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Francisco -1½ +175 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
13-15 + 23.40 units
San Diego +150 over MILWAUKEE
It’s time to switch gears again. The Brewers just finished a four-game set in St. Louis and after losing the first game of a double-header on Tuesday, they won the nightcap and the next two to take three out of four in St. Louis. Much of the general public got buried in that series and now they’ll switch gears and hop on the Crew while we’ll take the opposite approach. Milwaukee’s stock is a bit too high and with the Padres coming in for a weekend series, we may catch the Crew off guard here. The Brewers focus may be off too. You see, there’s a big golf tournament in the area that is about 30 miles from Miller Park and some players have even suggested that they would love to get over there. That’s probably not possible but anything that can take away focus helps.
Junior Guerra is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA after five starts. Guerra was sidelined earlier after leaving his Opening Day start after three innings with a calf strain so he’s still behind the rest of the league. His 2.45 ERA on paper looks very pretty against a Padres lineup that struggles on the road but we’re not in the habit of backing misleading ERA’s and we’re surely not going to get into that habit here. Guerra’s xERA is 5.15. He has walked 13 batters in 26 innings but an unsustainable 90% strand rate makes him look much better than he actually is. From his 58% first-pitch-strike rate to his below average 42% groundball rate to his 10% swing and miss rate and to his 0% pure quality starts, Guerra is about as ordinary as they come. Win or lose here, Guerra is overpriced to be sure.
Miguel Diaz does not look pretty on paper with a 6.92 ERA after one start and 21 relief appearances. Diaz is another Rule-5 player that the Padres have to keep on their MLB roster for the entire season otherwise they risk losing him and that’s something they do not want to risk. Incidentally, Diaz came over from the Brewers and now he’ll face the team that gave up on him. Diaz’s best pitch is a plus 94-96 mph fastball that he gets good tailing life on due to his short, quick arm action. Diaz is much more comfortable as a starter, as that’s been his role his entire career and it’s also worth noting that he held the opposition to a .233 BA in the minors. Indeed this kid is raw and there is always a risk when backing raw rookies but his feet are wet and he has produced a 13% swing and miss rate in his 26 innings at this level so far. Diaz has 19 K’s in those 26 innings and while he has waked too many (16), he has the ability to be effectively wild against a Brewers’ team that has struck out more times than any team in the NL and that might be way out of focus here.
ATLANTA -1½ +177 over Miami
The hard-throwing Sean Newcomb made his major league debut with a start on Saturday, June 10, against the Mets. Newcomb has a gargantuan build at 6’5”, 255 pounds that provides him with a significant amount of durability and stamina. He may struggle with his command and control at times but he can fire bullets with his power arsenal. He generates a high-quality, plus fastball in the 92-97 mph range and complements it with a hard curveball, also a plus offering. With those two pitches, Newcomb can dominate hitters with relative ease. He also has a solid change-up that he throws with the same arm speed as his fastball. His pitches play up due to his unique ability to hide the ball in his delivery. This allows his fastball to look quicker than the radar gun suggests. Newcomb has legitimate stuff. Hitters have difficulty making hard contact against him and if he’s throwing strikes, look out. He was originally a first round pick of the Angels in 2014 before they shipped him to Atlanta in November 2015, a move they’ll likely end up regretting. In his first start against the Mets on June 10, Newcomb struck out seven and walked two in 6.1 scoreless innings. To that we say, “oh-oh” because now he knows he can get major-leaguers out and we’ll gladly ride him again here.
We often target golfers that suit the course and this one plays along those lines, as this pitcher, Dan Straily, does not suit this track. Straily is 4-4 with a 3.89 ERA after 13 starts but it’s his home/road splits that make him very unappealing here. Straily has been tagged for seven jacks in 32 road innings. His home park holds in those hard hit balls but some road venues do not and this one will not either. Straily’s wretched 38% line-drive rate on the road spells big trouble at this hitter-accommodating park. Straily is 1-3 on the road with a ERA/xERA split of 5.91/5.77 and he’ll now face a hot Braves lineup that just scored 29 runs in three games at Washington. Straily’s 47% fly-ball profile led to an NL-high 31 jacks allowed last year but luckily, 24 were solo shots. Issues with the long ball aren't going away, which means the opposition always has a chance to post a crooked number, prompting us to step in.