Power Sports
Cleveland vs. Minnesota
Pick: Cleveland
I think it's about time the reigning AL Champs began asserting themselves in their own division. Despite being the more talented squad on paper, and having the better overall run differential (+18 vs -24), the Tribe enters the weekend two games back of the surprising Twins in the Central. What's really odd about these two teams is both have losing records at home while winning ones on the road. True to form, Cleveland swept a three-game set here at Target Field back in April. They have what looks to be a clear edge in starting pitching for tonight's opener, thus I offer up this recommendation.
Carlos Carrasco is the starter in question going tonight for the Indians. He comes in w/ a 3.13 ERA and 0.911 WHIP in six prior road starts. He has yet to face Minnesota this year. He should be able to count on an offense which scored 12 times in yday afternoon's victory over the Dodgers.
Clearly, given that run differential the Twins are overachieving right now in terms of wins and losses. They come off a very erratic series w/ the Mariners where they lost the opener 14-3, only to come back and take the second game by a score of 20-7! They'd go on to split the final two games as well. Starting for them tonight is Nik Turley and it's tough to like him in this spot given his big league debut (Sunday) saw him give up four runs (on eight hits) in just four innings. Also, Minnesota's bullpen has been quite terrible at home w/ a 5.87 ERA and 1.61 WHIP.
Will Rogers
Tampa Bay vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit
The set-up: The Tigers opened their four-game home series against the Rays with a 5-3 win last night but it marked just the team's second in its last seven contests. However, Cabrera's walk-off homer leaves him 9-for-22 with four runs scored, four doubles, a homer and four RBIs during his five-game hitting streak. Is the two-time MVP starting to come around? Tampa Bay has now dropped two in a row after winning six of seven plus the team's loss to Detroit was its first in four games against the Tigers this year.
The pitching matchup: Erasmo Ramirez (3-1 & 4.20 ERA) draws the start for the Rays and Daniel Norris (3-4 & 4.41 ERA) for the Tigers. Ramirez has made 18 appearances in 2017 but just six starts. His last three appearances have been as a starter and he's hardly shined, allowing 11 ERs on 23 hits over just 12 1/3 innings (7.52 ERA). Ramirez is 1-1 with a 6.59 ERA in six career appearances (two starts / teams are 1-1) against the Tigers. Norris snapped his six-game win-less streak on Sunday (he was 0-3 but the Tigers were 3-3), when he limited Boston to two runs on seven hits and three walks over five innings of an 8-3 win. Norris permitted five runs (four earned) on eight hits over 4 2/3 innings against the Rays in an April start and is 0-1 with a 3.78 ERA in three career starts against the Rays (teams are 0-3).
The pick: Detroit has to be happy that Cabrera is starting to hit and the fact that Tampa Bay is just 8-15 against lefty starters in 2017 makes this a hopeful start for Norris. I'll back the Tigers.
Zack Cimini
Tampa Bay vs. Detroit
Pick: Tampa Bay
This price has moved twelve dollars from last night with value still left on the underdog side. Veteran Erasamo Ramirez garners another start out of the bullpen for the Rays. Aside from a loss to his former team in the Mariners he has been superb with a 3-1 record. The flip side value here lies with Tigers pitcher Daniel Norris coming off a sound road win over the Red Sox on the 11th. Take the Rays.
Larry Ness
Chicago at Toronto
Pick: Toronto
The 29-36 White Sox (AL Central) and 32-33 Blue Jays (AL East) are both last place clubs but each open this three-game series with at least a little momentum, as both have won three of four. That said, there is quite a bit of difference between the two teams. The White Sox have failed to make the postseason in eight straight years and have sat home in October for 10 of the last 11 seasons since winning the 2005 World Series. As for the Blue Jays, they have made a dramatic turnaround these last two seasons. Toronto ended a 21-year playoff drought in 2015 and has played in each of the last two ALCS matchups (just one step away from the World Series). Toronto stumbled badly out of the gate in 2017 (2-9 its first 11 and just 7-18 by the end of April) but made a slight move in the standings after closing out May on an 8-1 run. However, the Blue Jays are just 6-6 in June. As for Chicago, after reaching a season-high three games above .500 at 15-12 on May 4, the the White Sox are 14-24 since.
José Quintana (2-8, 5.30 ERA) takes the mound for Chicago against Toronto's Joe Biagini (1-5, 3.38 ERA). Quintana has not won since May 2, a stretch of seven starts (he's 0-4 and the White Sox are 3-4). He wasn't bad in his last two outings but he was hammered for 15 runs in his previous two starts over just seven innings (19.29 ERA!). Maybe Quintana's 1.67 ERA in eight career starts against Toronto (he's 5-2 and t Chicago 5-3) will give him confidence?
Biagini's first 14 appearances of 2017 were out of the bullpen but this marks his eighth straight start. He will be going for his second victory of the season Friday night and a Toronto win would put the Blue Jays at .500 for the first time this season. A victory would hardly be a surprise, as Biagini owns a 3.38 ERA in seven starts since moving from the bullpen.
Quintana does own an impressive history against the Blue Jays but his current form is downright 'ugly.' After ERAs of 3.51, 3.32, 3.36 and 3.20 the last four seasons, as well a WHIPs between 1.16 and 1.27, his 2017 ERA is 5.30 (basically two runs per game higher!) and his WHIP is 1.41. I'm on Toronto to reach .500 by earning the win.
Bob Balfe
Mets +135
The Nationals are a great hitting team, but when it comes to left handers they are just average. The Mets are good against left handers and I think this line has value because the Nationals Bullpen is very weak. Matz had a good outing in his opener and will be tough to hit due to players on Washington never facing him before.
Buster Sports
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates +107
The Cubs start a 3 game set in Pittsburgh tonight and the World Champs are definitely not looking like Champs these days. They come into this contest 2-6 in their last 8 starts and send RH Eddie Butler (3-2, 4.03 ERA) to the hill tonight. Butler has had only 6 starts for the Cubs but lately he has been getting beat up as he has a 6.00 ERA with a WHIP of 1.40 in his last 3 starts. The Pirates will send RH Trevor Williams (3-3, 5.13 ERA) to the hill and although he has been hot and cold since he came out of the Pirates bullpen in early May he has pitched better of late. In fact in two of his last 3 starts he allowed only one run. We like the fact that the 25 yr old is starting to get better and we see a good start for him tonight especially at home. We are getting some small plus money with the Pirates tonight and we will be happy to take it. Backing our selection is the fact that the Cubs are 1-8 in their last 9 road games vs. a right-handed starter and the fact that the Pirates are 4-0 in Williams' last 4 starts.
Cal Sports
Chicago vs. Toronto
Play: Chicago +156
Both teams have won 3 of 4 and 4 of their last 6. Blue Jays 1-7 at home vs lefties. Over last 10 days White Sox slight edge being +0.1 runs/game (4.7-4.6) vs Toronto -0.4 (3.7-4.1).
Harry Bondi
NY YANKEES (-125) over Oakland
Yankees dropped a tough one last night to the A’s in extra innings, but the Bronx Bombers have responded very well this season when facing a mini-losing streak, going 3-1 after three straight losses. So, we’ll call for them to bounce back and snap that streak tonight against an A’s team that is a dismal 19-30 (-10 units) when facing a right-handed starter. And with both bullpens taxed after last night’s extra-inning affair, we’ll have a huge edge in the late innings as the Yankees’ pen is much deeper and more versatile that Oakland’s, which has posted a collective ERA of more than 5.00 this season. Lay the road favorite.
Rocketman
San Francisco @ Colorado
Play: Colorado -104
The San Francisco Giants trave„l to Colorado to take on the Rockies on Friday night. San Francisco is 26-42 SU overall this year while Colorado comes in with a 43-26 SU overall record on the season. Jeff Samardzija is 2-8 with a 4.31 ERA overall this year and 1-4 with a 4.28 ERA on the road this season. Antonio Senzatela is 8-2 with a 3.84 ERA overall this year and 6-1 with a 3.18 ERA at home this season. Senzatela is 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA in his 2 career starts vs San Francisco. San Francisco is scoring only 3.9 runs per game against right handed starters, 3.7 runs per game on grass, 3.6 runs per game at night and 3.8 runs per game against division opponents this season. San Francisco is allowing 5.7 runs per game on the road this year and 6.4 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Colorado is scoring 5.8 runs per game at home this year, 5.5 runs per game against right handed starters and 5.4 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Colorado is allowing only 3.9 runs per game against division opponents this season. Colorado is 7-1 overall vs San Francisco this year. San Francisco is 5-14 this year on the road when the money line is +125 to -125.
King Creole
Giants / Rockies Over 11.5
As is always the case in Coors Field games, the ‘bar has been set’ high for Game Two of this Rockies / Giants series. If last night’s Game One result is any indication (a Colorado win by the score of 10-9 with 32 combined HITS), then we should get another slugfest tonight. Especially if the ‘Man in Blue’ has anything to say about it. Working behind the dish for Game Two will be GARY CEDARSTORM. He’s one of only 15 Umpires that have gone OVER in 67% or more of his games so far in the 2017 season (8-4 O/U overall). That includes 5-1 O/U in all National League games this year. And to top it all off, Cedarstorm comes in with a 6-1 O/U record in his last seven games since late April. But what about this particular ballpark? I’m glad you asked. Cedarstorm has gone a PERFECT 3-0 O/U at COORS FIELD in the last 3 years (17.0 combined RPG!). And in the last 5 years, he’s gone 7-2 O/U ‘In this Park’, with an average of 14.5 runs per game). In terms of tonight’s opponents, it doesn’t get any more diverse than the San Francisco Giants. One of the league’s BEST ‘Under’ teams at home this year (11-20-1 O/U). But put the Giants on the ROAD, and they’ve been one of the league’s BEST ‘Over’ teams. San Fran has gone 21-11-4 o/U in their road games, which is second best behind the Houston Astros (18-9-4 O/U). The scheduled pitched for the Giants (Jeff Samardzija) already has an ERA of 8.02 versus the Rockies this season in two starts. And Colorado’s counterpart (Antonio Senzatela) is ‘blowing up’ as of late with an ERA of 6.46 in his last gather starts.