DAVE COKIN
MARINERS AT RED SOX
PLAY: RED SOX -120
It’s the opener of a weekend set at Fenway Park between the Mariners and Red Sox, and I’m jumping in on the Friday night hookup. Here’s what I’m keying on in tonight’s battle.
Seattle righty Hisashi Iwakuma has steadied somewhat lately, but he really isn’t pitching at his past performance level. I don’t think he’s anything more than a middle of the rotation guy at this point, although he will get by thanks to rarely beating himself with walks. A quick look at Iwakuma’s history vs. the Red Sox offers some ugly numbers, though I don’t really put much into that as that data was accrued mostly against guys he won’t be seeing tonight. Nevertheless, let’s just say that facing Boston hasn’t been a good thing for Iwakuma previously.
Roenis Elias has been called up by Boston and gets to face his former team, which I don’t mind as he figures to be very fired up. Elias has been red hot at Pawtucket lately. Last five starts, 36 innings with a 2.00 ERA, but what’s eye opening is the 8/40 BB/K in that stretch. The key is a revised arm slot and a slower delivery that he’s worked on with Bob Kipper, the pitching coach at Pawtucket. The Red Sox need a #5 starter, and this is the chance for Elias to grab that spot. So if you’re a fan of isolating a little in the way of extra incentive, there’s plenty of it in the Elias column tonight.
The Mariners bullpen was seriously extended in the Tampa series, and I would suspect that neither Joaquin Benoit or Steve Cishek will be available here. So there figures to be an enormous late inning edge for the Red Sox. Given how vital relievers have been to so many results this season, I see the potential fatigue for the Seattle pen being a liability here.
It’s entirely possible that Elias will end up being the latest failure at the back end of the Boston rotation. Clay Buchholz couldn’t get it done, Joe Kelly couldn’t get it done, Henry Owens couldn’t get it done. I’m not convinced Roenis Elias is the long term answer either. No matter how much the Red Sox want to avoid having to deal a prospect or two for a reliable arm as they drive for a playoff spot, I suspect they’re going to have to bite the bullet at some point and make a trade. But for one night at least, I like the concept of taking the very motivated southpaw Elias in what amounts to a big time audition. I have no problem at all with the price, so the Red Sox are on my card tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Pirates vs. Cubs
Play: Cubs -260
The Cubs are 15.3 off a loss and they fit a solid system that is 35-9 since 2004 ths plays on certain home favorites off a road loss vs an opponent like Pittsburgh also off a road loss. The pirates have lost 7 of the last 8 and are 8-42 long term as a road dig of +225 or higher. The Cubs have won 3 of the last 4 here in the series and have Arietta on the mound and he is 11-1 with a 1.41 era vs the Pirates. Liriano is on the mound for the Pirates and he allowed 8 runs here earlier in the year in 4 innings and has a dismal 7.09 road era this season. Look for the Cubs to take this one.
Mike Lundin
White Sox vs. Indians
Play: Under 8
American League Central rivals Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Indians will open a three-game set Friday night. I think runs will come at a premium with two hot pitchers on the mound.
Trevor Bauer (4-2, 3.69) will take the ball for Cleveland. He has posted a 1.72 ERA with 13 strikeouts and two walks in his last two starts, both on the road. Bauer has a 4.75 ERA in seven appearances at Progressive Field on the season, but I think he'll put up a strong performance tonight as he has a solid .213 batting average against over 127 at bats versus the current White Sox team.
The White Sox turn to Jose Quintana (5-7, 2.66 ERA). The White Sox have lost each of his last six starts despite solid pitching from the left-hander, and they've scored just an average of just 2.76 runs in Quintana's 13 starts on the season. Quintana recorded eight strikeouts while conceding three runs on five hits in six innings of 4-3 home loss against Cleveland on May 25. He is 5-2 with a 2.71 ERA in 15 career appearances (13 starts) vs. the Tribe.
Under is 5-1 in Bauer's last six starts vs. White Sox, Under is 5-0 in Quintana's last five starts vs. Indians. Look for this game to go under.
Marc Lawrence
Blue Jays vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles +125
Edges - Orioles: Mike Wright 7-1 at night team starts this season. Blue Jays: Aaron Sanchez off phony ‘inside-out’ win in his last start when he pitched 5 innings while allowing 10 hits, 6 runs and 2 walks. With the Orioles 4-1 the last five games as host in this series, we recommend a 1* play on Baltimore.
Bob Harvey
Los Angeles at Oakland
Play: Los Angeles -134
The Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Angels have won 11 of the last 14 American League West titles but the challenge this season is to avoid a last place finish in the division. Tonight the two longtime rivals open a three-game series in the Bay Area where the Angels and Matt Shoemaker (-134) are favored over Kendall Graveman and the A’s. The total is set at eight. First pitch is set for 9:35 PM ET at Oakland Coliseum.
The fourth-place Angels (29-37, 28-38 RL) have won two straight but have lost seven of their last 10. They have a two game lead over the Athletics (27-39, 33-33 RL) heading into the weekend set. The two teams haven’t met since mid-April when the Halos swept a three-game series in Oakland.
The A's dropped three of four against Texas to begin the week and have lost 10 of 12 overall, nearly getting no-hit by Rangers' right-hander Colby Lewis in Thursday's 5-1 loss. Oakland has been held to one or zero runs in half of its last eight contests and enters the series batting .244 at home on the season. Angels starter Matt Shoemaker, who has been dominant over a five-start stretch, will hope to take advantage as he opposes fellow righty Kendall Graveman.
Shoemaker (3-7, 4.76 ERA) has been dominant over a five-start stretch. He held Cleveland to three hits and struck out 11 in eight scoreless frames his last time out. He has a 1.88 ERA during his five-start surge striking out 48 and walking one in 38.1 innings. Graveman (2-6, 5.28 ERA) has failed to finish five innings in three of his last four starts but does own a 3.38 ERA in five home starts.
Jesse Schule
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: San Francisco Giants +110
The Giants are way out in front in the NL West, and they will be an underdog in Tampa, facing the last place team in the AL East. The Rays are one of the weakest offensive teams in the majors, and with their leader Evan Longoria battling injury, I don't think they have any business being favored here. Longoria leads the team in home runs, RBIs as well as batting average, and he sat out last night with arm soreness. Jeff Samardzija will toe the slab for San Fran, and he's having a solid season in his first year with the Giants. Samardzija (7-4, 3.36 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on seven hits over 4 2/3 innings in a 5-4 win over the Dodgers his last time out. He's been great under the lights, going 6-2 with a 2.51 ERA in night games in 2016. The Rays will counter with ace Chris Archer, who hasn't lived up to expectations this season. Archer (4-8, 4.61 ERA) allowed three runs on six hits over 7 2/3 innings in a 4-3 home loss to Houston his last time out. The Giants roughed him up in the only previous meeting, and Brandon Belt was 3-for-3 with a home run in that game.
Will Rogers
Washington vs. San Diego
Pick: Washington
The Padres sit dead last in the NL West, and they've lost five of their last six overall. The Nats took Game 1 of this series by a score of 8-5, and I see no reason not to jump right back on Washington in Game 2. The Nationals are on a roll, coming into tonight's game as winners of six of their last seven.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Nats will turn to Joe Ross, who has won four straight. Ross (5-4, 3.01 ERA) allowed three runs on five hits, fanning eight in seven innings in a 5-4 win over the Phillies in his last start. His ERA on the road is more than 1 run lower than it is at home (3-2, 2.51).
2. San Diego's Bullpen - The Padres relief pitchers have posted an ERA of 4.68 so far this season. The only two teams that rank worse are Cincinnati and Texas, and at least they have the excuse of pitching in a hitter's park.
3. X-Factor - The Nationals are 8-1 in their last nine road games versus a left-handed starter, while the Padres are 5-17 in their last 22 games versus a right-handed starter.
Jim Feist
Los Angeles at Oakland
Pick: Under
Oakland is a big park and the Athletics' offense is terrible, getting no-hit yesterday into the 9th innings. The Under is 19-8-2 in the Athletics last 29 home games vs. a team with a losing record. LA is in town with a weak offense, too. Starter Matt Shoemaker is throwing better, allowing 2 or fewer runs in 4 of the last 5 starts. The bullpen blew Shoemaker's (3-7) best performance of the season, leaving him with a no-decision versus the Indians on Saturday. He pitched eight scoreless innings, allowing just three hits and one walk while striking out 11. The team is on a 4-1 run under the total when he pitched. Oakland starter Kendall Graveman throws well at home with a 3.38 ERA and the Under is 6-0 when the Athletics face a team with a losing record.
BUSTER SPORTS
Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals
Play: Texas Rangers +100
The starting pitchers for tonight's game are for the Rangers LH Cole Hamels (6-1, 3.14 ERA) and he goes up against the Cardinals RH Michael Wacha (2-6, 4.91) Hamels has been pitching excellent for the Rangers every since his trade form Philadelphia last year. He has been especially good on the road. He has a 4-0 record and a 1.94 ERA with a WHIP just over 1 this year. As for the Cardinals starter Michael Wacha he has not started the year as well as his previous years. In 2014 Wacha had a yr ending ERA of 3.20 in 2015 a year ending ERA of 3.38 unfortunately most of this year his ERA has been hovering just under 5. At home it has been worse for Wacha as he has a 5.54 ERA and a WHIP of 1.487. With Texas being one of the hotter teams in baseball of late we see tremendous value here and we will take it.
Backing our selection is the fact that the Rangers are 14-3 in their last 17 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game and also the Rangers are 13-3 in their last 16 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
SCOTT SPREITZER
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
Play: Detroit Tigers -111
Detroit's hitters have warmed up with the weather and after last night's 10-4 win at Kansas City, the Tigers have averaged 7.2 runs while winning four of their last six games. Victor Martinez hit three of the Tigers' six home runs as they totaled 13 hits after recording 38 hits in a three-game series against the Chicago White Sox. Michael Fulmer has been nothing short of sensational allowing one run in his last five outings covering 34 2/3 innings while allowing just 13 hits and striking out 30. The Tigers are on a 7-0 run when the right-hander toes the rubber. Yordano Ventura is 5-4 with a 4.93 ERA and has had trouble putting two good starts together while still getting in trouble by starting fights. Ventura gave up one run in seven innings in a 3-1 win at the White Sox on Sunday after allowing six runs in 4 1/3 innings at Baltimore. KC has won just one of their last eight following a loss.
Larry Ness
Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics
Pick: Los Angeles Angels
There will be a Game 7 in the NBA Finals come Sunday in Oakland and on Saturday, the San Francisco Bay Area is buzzing due to the return of Tim Lincecum as the Angels' starter on Saturday. However, Friday night it’s the series opener between the Angels and A’s. Oakland has scheduled a fireworks show following tonight’s opener and given the recent forms of the Angels Matt Shoemaker and A's Kendall Graveman, “the show” get an early start. Shoemaker is 3-7 with a 4.76 ERA on the season with Graveman coming in 2-6 with a 5.28 ERA.
Shoemaker owns a 5.27 road ERA in five away starts in 2016 and since April 30 has allowed 14 ERs on 23 hits over 15 innings of three road outings (8.40 ERA). As for Graveman, he’s struggled no matter where he's pitched this season. He’s allowed 32 ERs on 66 hits in 43.2 innings over his last nine starts, going 0-5 with a 6.60 ERA (team is 2-7). Graveman has failed to finish five innings in three of his last four starts and will face an Angels lineup which totaled 19 runs in winning two of three from the Minnesota Twins earlier this week.
The A's were nearly no-hit by Texas Rangers right-hander Colby Lewis on Thursday afternoon (first hit came in the 9th inning) and while the team is in no danger of going hitless against Shoemaker, his recent road struggles may be coming to an end.
Shoemaker limited Cleveland to three hits and struck out 11 in eight scoreless innings his last time out and owns a 1.88 ERA during a five-start surge, striking out 48 and walking just ONE over 38.1 innings. Yes, FOUR of those five have come at home but the bet here is, Shoemaker get his act together on the road.
Scott Rickenbach
Rockies at Marlins
Pick: Over
Marlins southpaw Adam Conley is having a rough time over the past month. He's winless with a 5.27 ERA in his last 5 starts and opponents have hit .308 against him during this stretch. Conley has walked 13 in the 27 and 1/3 innings spanning this rough 5-start stretch. The Miami left-hander will be facing a Rockies team that will be stepping into the batters box with plenty of confidence in this one. Colorado has won 8 of their last 10 games and averaged 6.2 runs per game during this stretch. Even though the Rockies Jon Gray has been pitching well, the Marlins have averaged 5.7 runs per game in their last 9 games and Miami has averaged 10.8 hits per game during this solid stretch at the plate. The over is 8-4 in the Marlins last 12 games. Miami is 22-12 this season when off of a loss. Also, after an off day, the Marlins have gone 23-14 to the over the past three seasons combined. The Rockies are 7-4 to the over this season as a road dog in a price range of +100 to +125. With this line moving down from an 8 to a 7.5 as of early Friday morning, I'll gladly grab the additional line value with the over in this match-up.
CARMINE BIANCO
Colombia -0.8 -116
Peru has had a pretty good dream run to this point but tonight face a tough Colombia side with some top class strikers and a midfield to go with it. The opinion here is they'll have trouble with Rodriguez, Bacca and Cardone much of the night with Cuadrado creating space for that attackers. I think the Peru run comes to an end tonight at MetLife Stadium. The Play is Colombia -0.8 -116 (Split line of -1/2 and -1)
Kevin Rogers
Giants at Rays
Play: Rays
The Giants are riding a five-game winning streak as they travel cross-country to face the Rays. Chris Archer takes the mound for Tampa Bay, as the right-hander is 1-4 at home in spite of a 2.33 ERA. Jeff Samardzija counters for the Giants, as the right-hander has allowed 15 hits and 11 ER in his past two road outings, while San Francisco lost to St. Louis and Atlanta. Tampa Bay couldn't pull off the sweep of Seattle on Thursday, but the Rays are 9-3 in their last 12 games overall.
Steve Janus
Rangers vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -108
Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TEXAS) - after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, a top-level team (winning 62% or more of their games) playing a team with a winning record. This system is 88-34 (72%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons.