Jeff Alexander
Dodgers -1.5 +145
Milwaukee will send out Zach Davies, who has a sensational 0.86 ERA and 0.571 WHIP in his last 3 starts, but all 3 of those came at home. Davies has been a different pitcher on the road, where his ERA is a miserable 7.82 and his WHIP is 2.054. He's due for a bad outing and there's a good chance it comes on the road tonight. LA will counter with Julio Urias, who is one of their prized young prospects. The youngster struggled in his first two big league starts, but has allowed just 3 runs on 7 hits with 14 strikeouts in his last 2 starts, spanning 9 1/3 innings. I look for him to only get better as the season progresses and his best start so far has come at home (other 3 on the road). I look for LA to win this one going away.
Chase Diamond
Pittsburgh vs. Chicago
Play: Pittsburgh +230
Big time game for the Pirates as the 33-33 Pirates face off with the 44-20 Cubs. I think this line is way off we are has getting huge plus money with a very good team and a solid pitcher. I think Liriano has been pitching better and the Cubs must start winning and winning now. 62% on the home Cubs as expected but this line is dropping fast. I see this as a great plus money game for us and worth a shot.
Ray Monohan
Baltimore Orioles +1.5 -130
The Orioles welcome in the Blue Jays for a crucial weekend series with AL East first place implications on the line. Baltimore comes in after taking 2 of 3 against the Red Sox with some impressive pitching in the pair of wins. While they take on Aaron Sanchez, who is 6-1, but counter with Mike Wright, who has shown the ability to be shut down.
On June 6th he shut down the impressive royals offense allowing 1 run in 7.0 innings of work. Sanchez was also knocked around by the Orioles last Sunday, allowing 6 runs on 10 hits.
Some trends to consider. Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series. Orioles are 6-1 in their last 7 games on grass.
Baltimore is playing some good ball right now, and grabbing a solid price on them catching 1.5 at home is a nice value play here.
Brandon Lee
Angels -141
I really like the Angels' chances of coming away with a win on Friday against the slumping A's. Oakland has lost 3 straight and 10 of their last 12 overall. The key here is the advantage LA will have on the mound, as they send out a fast-improved Matt Shoemaker. Shoemaker had a 9.12 ERA after his first 6 starts. Since that awful start, he's allowed a total of 11 earned runs in his last 43 1/3 innings of work. His ERA is all the way down to 4.76 and I see no reason not to ride the hot hand here against a mediocre Oakland offense. The A's will counter with Kendall Graveman, who is 2-6 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.647 WHIP in 12 starts.
Jimmy Boyd
Diamondbacks/Phillies Over 8.5
The books have set the total too low for today's matchup between the Diamondbacks and Phillies. Two below average starters take the mound in this one, as Philadelphia sends out Adam Morgan against Arizona's Robbie Ray.
Morgan made 9 starts this season and has a 6.33 ERA and 1.448 WHIP. Most of his struggles have come at home, where he's 0-4 with a 7.09 ERA in 5 starts. Morgan will be facing a potent Diamondbacks offense that is scoring on average 4.7 runs/game and hitting .278 against left-handed starters this season.
Ray has a 4.43 ERA and 1.594 WHIP in 13 starts and rarely goes deep into games. He's only averaging 5 1/3 innings per start this season. The Phillies aren't a great offensive team, but should be able to get to Ray early and take advantage of a weak Arizona bullpen that has a 4.14 ERA on the year.
Yesterday the Phillies lost 2-13 at home to the Blue Jays. The OVER is 13-4 in Philadelphia's last 17 games after a loss by 8 or more runs and 14-4 in their last 18 after a game with a combined score of 15 or more runs. OVER is also 9-1 in Arizona's last 10 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 8-2 in their last 10 against a team with a losing record and 7-1 in Ray's last 8 starts against a team that gave up 5 or more runs in their previous game.
Alex Smart
Pirates vs. Cubs
Play: Cubs -1½
Arrieta has won 21 of his last 22 decisions, and he has a 1.13 ERA over that stretch. He's 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in two starts against the Pirates this season and is 5-1 with a 0.88 ERA in his last seven regular-season outings vs the Bucks. Meanwhile, his Pirates pitching opponent, Lariano has struggled on the road this season, going 1-3 with a 7.09 ERA in six starts, and overall has lost 3 straight starts. The Cubs have outscored the Pirates 38-13 in their six meetings this season, and considering todays starting pitching matchup a repeat of those performances should be expected. (Pirates are 1-7 in the last 8 meetings).
Joseph D'Amico
Blue Jays vs. Orioles
Play: Blue Jays -143
Toronto has won 3 in a row and 6 of their L7 to climb within 2 games of the 1st place Baltimore team. The Orioles pitching staff has gotten shredded for 31 runs in their L4 losses (2-4 L6 overall). Today, the Blue Jays give Aaron Sanchez the nod. The RH is 6-1 with an ERA of 3.38 in 2016. The O's send Mike Wright to the bump. The RH is 3-3 with a 5.31 mark on the campaign and owns a career, 0-3, 7.13 record in 5 appearances vs. the BJ's. Toronto is 12-3 their L15 vs. the AL East, 7-3 their L10 on the road, and 5-0 in Sanchez's L5 starts on 4 days rest.
Sleepyj
Arizona / Philadelphia Under 8.5
Nothing I have says over here...We can grab the under at a plus price as well...I'm hoping this ticks up to 9 and then fire a play under 9...Still feel great laying 8.5 however...Pitching should rule the day and both guys on the mound can confuse either side here from what i see...Under is the only way I can look here.
SPORTS WAGERS
Croatia -½ +106 over Czech Republic
The Czech Republic is coming off of a game in which they were scored on very late by powerhouse and Group favorite Spain. They were three minutes away from doing what they were designed to do, and that was to sit back and keep the game level, relying on one of the best goalkeepers in the world. With a disadvantage of 70%-30% in possession, 17-7 shots at target, and 14-3 corner disadvantage, it would seem that they were very fortunate to be in a 0-0 situation that late in the game. The true story in this game was that the Czechs were unbelievably lucky not to lose by 2+. Recent form from Czech Republic isn't very inspiring, as they have gone 2-3-1 in their past six. Amongst the loss to Spain, the Czechs lost to South Korea and Scotland before the tournament. Since the end of a very impressive qualifying round, the Czechs only win was over an opponent that made it to the tournament (2-1 vs. Russia). Besides Goaltender Petr Cech, their best player is Tomas Rosicky, who is a slightly above average steady Midfielder for the EPL's Arsenal.
Croatia has superstars. They have the strongest midfield in the tournament, and have at least 3 players of higher quality than Tomas Rosicky. Mario Mandzukic is a premier striker for the best team in Serie A, Luka Modric is one of the best midfielders in the world on one of the best teams in the world in Real Madrid and Ivan Rakatic is an every game starting midfielder for Barcelona. There is little argument to who is the better team in this matchup, and likewise to the form. Croatia has won five of their last six, and drew the other. Their last loss occurred in September in qualifying, and before that November 2014 vs. Argentina. Croatia are also rock solid on defense, as their superstar midfield are excellent in support for the back line. They have conceded only two goals in their past eight matches. In Croatia's 1-0 win over Turkey in the first leg of the tournament, the possession numbers were split down the middle, but that was about all that was even, as Croatia put 18 balls towards target to Turkey's nine and had two goal posts that could have broken this game wide open.
Added to the form and star power is an important emotional angle. Croatian Captain Darijo Srna lost his father following the 1st game on the group stage. If this were any other player, this angle probably wouldn't be mentioned in this write-up, however when it’s the captain of a national team it definitely carries some weight. Croatia will want this one even more for Srna and his family.
Croatia may have a very deep tournament run in them, and they will absolutely need to lock down three points here so they won’t be feeling the pressure in their 3rd match vs. Spain. The Czechs are not tournament contenders, and this situation for them may be similar to what they attempted vs. Spain. Unlikely to score and trying to defend all game won’t be a recipe for success. Unfortunately for them, the star power will prevail and at a small take-back for the win, (ties lose) taking the better team in all facets (except goaltending) is prudent choice here.
Bruce Marshall
Seattle at Boston
Pick: Seattle
Former Mariner Roenis Elias gets a chance to pitch vs. his old team as he has been called up by the Bosox to start this game. His recent efforts at AAA have been good but he was shelled in his lone MLB appearance back in April vs. the Astros. And the Bosoton confidence might be a bit shaken after losing the midweek AL East series vs. the visiting Orioles. Seattle's road form has been good all season and the Mariners have won four of the last five starts made by Hisashi Iwakuma, who has fared decently ion the road (23.20 ERA) this season.
Ian Cameron
Los Angeles at Oakland
Play: Los Angeles -135
We have bet against Kendall Graveman a handful of times in the past and will continue that trend this evening in Oakland. The A's are just 3-9 in his 12 starts and after starting the season off strong with three solid outings, he's been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball. Over his last nine starts (43.2 IP), Graveman has allowed 66 hits, nine home runs, and sports a dismal 32-19 K-to-BB ratio. The Angels will send a resurgent Matt Shoemaker to the mound. Shoemaker has incorporated more off-speed pitches into his repertoire and it's resulted in just eight runs allowed over his last 38.1 innings of work. That also includes a ridiculous ratio of 48 strikeouts to only one walk during that span. His swinging strike rate this season has jumped up from 9.1% to 14.2% thanks to a split finger that grades out as one of the best pitches in baseball. Consider this: Last season Shoemaker's season-high for swinging strikes in a start was 14. Over his last five starts he's AVERAGED over 20. The betting markets have obviously caught wind of Shoemaker's recent dominance, hence the 30 cent move towards the Angels. Perhaps we wait till later this afternoon for the line to be bet back. Either way, Shoemaker has the big edge in this matchup.
Wunderdog
Toronto @ Baltimore
Pick: Under 9
This is the third straight road game for Toronto. We have a high total here, but the UNDER is 23-9-2 in the Blue Jays last 34 road games. The Blue Jays go with Aaron Sanchez (6-1, 3.38 ERA), having a strong campaign with 83 strikeouts in 85+ innings while opponents hit just .235 off him. He is also undefeated on the road with a 2.36 ERA in 49+ away innings. Toronto is 13-6 UNDER the total when he pitches, plus the team is 15-5-1 UNDER on the road against a team with a winning record. Baltimore has a strong bullpen and starter Mike Wright is throwing well, allowing three or fewer runs in six of the last nine starts, making this total too high.
Jack Jones
San Francisco Giants +120
The San Francisco Giants are showing great value as road underdogs to the Tampa Bay Rays today. The Giants come in red hot having won five straight and look to make it six in a row with another victory tonight.
Jeff Samardzija is certainly enjoying his new home in San Francisco, going 7-4 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.179 WHIP in 13 starts. Samardzija has posted a 3.21 ERA and 0.929 WHIP in two career starts against Tampa Bay as well.
Chris Archer is having a down year, going 4-8 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.437 WHIP in 14 starts. He has a propensity to give up the long ball, allowing 15 homers in 80 innings already this season. Archer gave up 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 7 innings of a 1-4 loss to the Giants in his only career start against them.
San Francisco is 20-3 (+16.9 Units) against the money line after a win by 6 runs or more over the last two seasons. The Giants are 17-4 in their last 21 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Rays are 1-4 in Archer's last five starts overall.
ASA
Yankees vs. Twins
Play: Twins +1½
The Yankees have struggled against left-handed starters this season (8-14 record) and southpaw Pat Dean will be toeing the rubber for the Twins in Minnesota tonight. Dean just held the powerful Red Sox lineup to only one earned run on just three hits in six innings in his most recent start. The Yanks are averaging only 3.6 runs per game on the road this season and only 3.5 runs per game in their match-ups with left-handed starting pitchers this season. While it is true that Minnesota has an ugly overall record this season, the Twins have gone 4-1 in Dean's five starts! The Yankees have lost 2 of the last 3 starts that Tanaka Masahiro has made and laying a run and a half with Masahiro in all of his starts this season would have resulted in a 5-8 record. The value is clearly with the Twins +1.5 runs in this one as the Yanks struggles against lefties continue. As a road favorite of -150 to -175 the Yankees have a record of 2-5 the past three seasons. That bodes well for a Twins upset win here but we'll grab the run line in case Minny suffers a tight loss and loses by a run. Minnesota is 2-1 this season as a home dog of +150 to +175 and the one loss came by only 2 runs. They are nearly perfect on the run line in this scenario.
Dave Price
Oakland A's +132
I'll take a stab on the Oakland A's tonight as big home underdogs to the Los Angeles Angels. First and foremost, Matt Shoemaker has no business being this heavy of a favorite. Shoemaker is 3-7 with a 4.77 ERA in 12 starts this year, and 2-3 with a 5.27 ERA in 5 road starts. He is also 3-2 with a 3.99 ERA in 7 lifetime starts vs. Oakland. Kendall Graveman has been solid at home, posting a 3.38 ERA through 5 starts this year. But what really stands out to me is that Graveman sports a 2.12 ERA and 1.235 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles. He has only given up 4 earned runs in 17 innings over those 3 starts.