Teddy Covers
Rangers vs. Cardinals
Play: Over 8
Teddy is riding a scorching 79% MLB totals hot streak that dates all the way back to April. Get onboard with his high scoring Slugfest winner tonight, primed to fly Over the total with ease!
Cole Hamels has had one fatal flaw this season that has doomed his chances of cashing many Under bets. Hamels has been flying Over the total with regularity – six of his last seven starts have cashed Over tickets. A pitcher with a career home run to fly ball ratio of 11.4% has seen that percentage nearly double to 22.7% this year.
Hamels has allowed 15 dingers in 83 innings of work this year. To put that number in perspective, he had allowed only 36 home runs in 417 innings of work over the previous three seasons. Of 99 pitchers with enough innings to qualify, Hamels home run rate ranks dead last in the majors here in 2016.
It’s surely worth noting that Hamels walks per nine innings is also at a career high this season – clearly, the home runs are making him hesitant to throw strikes; bad news against the patient, potent Cardinals lineup that has pounded out five runs or more in seven of their last ten contests.
But Michael Wacha is not a trustworthy hurler tonight either. Wacha has been an Over machine all year, cashing seven straight Overs and 10 Overs in his 13 previous starts. Wacha has been more unlucky than ‘un-good’ this year – his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is 55 points higher than last year and his strand rate is way down, sitting at 60.2%.
Wacha is coming off a 105 pitch effort against the Pirates. Following his last two 100+ pitch outings, in his next start, Wacha allowed a combined ten runs in ten innings of work. Facing a potent and hot Rangers lineup that just pounded out 27 runs in a four game set at Oakland, we can expect some crooked numbers on the scoreboard tonight!
Michael Alexander
Rangers vs. Cardinals
Play: Rangers +100
Texas starter Hamels has made himself at home on the road, posting a 4-0 mark with a 1.94 ERA in six starts this season. The 32-year-old continued that success on Sunday after allowing one run on four hits in seven innings of a 6-4 triumph versus Seattle. Hamels' lone blemish was a blast by Leonys Martin, which served as his 11th homer surrendered in his last seven games after yielding four in his previous six contests. While St. Louis starter Wacha's winless stretch extended to nine outings on Friday.
Goodfella
Seattle TT Over 4.5
Seattle excels vs LH pitching and they face a spot stater tonight in Elias (who used to pitch for SEA). He's been knocked around this season & I fully expect this deep Mariners lineup to get to him eventually. Of course we have an extreme hitters ballpark tonight at Fenway Park, with a good weather pattern. I really do not see Elias going past 5 innings tonight & these Mariners should get a couple off the Boston middle relief. I really like these Mariners to plate at least 5 runs before this game goes final & we also have the visiting club here, so we're assured of getting 9 innings of at-bats. I'm on the SEATTLE Team Total going OVER on Friday evening.
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Marlins over the Rcokies.
Miami is back home after a 4-5 road trip, and they will face a Colorado team that is surging. The Rockies have won 4 straight, and 8 of their last 10, but the Rockies have beefed up their mark with their last 6 games being played at home.
Let's see if Colorado can keep up their winning ways on the road. I don't think that they can.
The Marlins have won 5 of the last 7 series meetings, so give them the slight edge for tonight's series opener.
Jon Gray is 4-2 for Colorado, but the Rockies are just 2-7 his last 9 starts away from Coors Field.
Southpaw Adam Conley is looking to even his season mark at 4-4 if he can come up with the goods tonight. His last win comes just over a month ago, and I would say Conley is a little overdue for a "W", wouldn't you?
Let's go with the Marlins to open with the win.
1* MIAMI
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 67-63 run with free picks: Chicago at CLEVELAND (+105)
The STORYLINE in this game today - Heading into American League Central Division action for my free play tonight, as I like the Cleveland Indians to get it done over the Chicago White Sox. The White have lost eight of 11, and tonight they're on the bad end of a pitching mismatch that is in our favor. Be sure you're listing Trevor Bauer over Jose Quintana.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Bauer steps to the hill after an extra day's rest between starts thanks to yesterday's off day, and rolls to the rubber after two strong starts on the road, pitching 7 2/3 innings in a win over Seattle and eight innings in a no-decision at Anaheim. The right-hander had a 1.72 ERA with 13 strikeouts and two walks in the two starts. Quintana is suffering from a brutal run support, as the White Sox have scored an average of just 2.76 runs in Quintana's 13 starts. That could be why he is just 5-7 this season.
BOTTOM LINE is - The Indians arrive on the South Side of Chicago after playing a brutal 20 games in 20 days, a stretch that ended with a 9-4 loss to the Royals on Wednesday. While the Tribe escaped with a 10-10 mark in their 20-game marathon, make note that included a 10-game trip to Seattle, Anaheim and Kansas City. This is a long, overdue homecoming, after a long, overdue day off. Cleveland rejoices with a victory.
1* INDIANS
Brad Wilton
Friday comp play winner is to stick with the hottest pitcher in the big leagues - Michael Fulmer as he takes his stuff to the mound against a Kansas City team that saw their 5 game winning streak rudely snapped last night in a 10-4 loss to visiting Detroit.
The Tigers have won 4 of their last 6 on the road, and will send Fulmer to the hill. All Fulmer has done is allow one earned run over his last 34-plus innings pitched, and he has reeled off 5 straight wins.
Yordano Ventura gets the call for the Royals, and this may be his last trip to the hill for a little while, as he appeals his 9-game suspension. Ventura looked sharp his last time out in a win over the White Sox, and he will have to be just as sharp tonight working against the blistering Fulmer.
I will side with Fulmer to outduel Ventura in this spot.
Tigers over the Royals.
4* DETROIT
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the San Francisco Giants, andin this one I want you to be sure you're listing Chris Archer and Jeff Samardzjia.
Let's start with the home pitcher, as Archer is in after lasting 7 2/3 innings in a tough-luck 4-3 loss to the Astros. Archer does a great job of mixing his pitches and isn't afraid of throwing junk anywhere in the count. You never know what will be his out pitch, and that will frustrate the Giants tonight.
Meanwhile, the normally reliable Samardzija has recorded a 7.36 ERA in his last three starts, compared to the impressive 2.54 he registered in his first 10 outings. The fiery right-hander is also a disappointing 2-8 with a 5.46 ERA in Interleague Play. His history against the junior circuit and recent demise won't help.
Take the Rays tonight and list both.
1* RAYS
Scott Delaney
While my premium selection is a total in the American League, between East Division rivals, my freebie is an Interleague total, as I like the St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers to stay low. We have a dynamic pitching matchup, as Cole Hamels toes the slab for Texas, and will face the Cardinals' Michael Wacha.
Hamels is in after beating the Mariners on Sunday by allowing one run in seven innings, and is now 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA in three starts this month. The left-hander is 4-0 with a 1.94 ERA in six starts on the road, so he should be at the top of his game.
Meanwhile, Wacha left his last start with a 2-0 deficit after seven innings, but came away with a no-decision after Matt Carpenter's eighth-inning home run. Wacha allowed a mere three hits with five strikeouts in the Cardinals' 9-3 win.
This should be a duel, no doubt about it, as this one stays low.
1* Cardinals/Rangers Under
Hollywood Sports
Arizona at Philadelphia
Prediction: Arizona
Arizona (29-39) has been a good team away from home. They are 16-14 on the road -- and they have won 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Ray has been better away from Chase Field as well given his 3.06 ERA on the road. Philadelphia (30-37) has lost 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Phillies have also lost 4 straight games at home with Morgan on the mound.
SPORTS WAGERS
BOSTON -1½ +158 over Seattle
Roenis Elias moves into the rotation for this start, replacing the injured Joe Kelly. Elias is no stranger to starting. He started 49 major league games prior to this year and has a career ERA of 4.04. His career xERA is almost exactly the same as his actual ERA. Ironically, Elias started all those games as a member of the Mariners and he’ll now face his former team in his first start for his new team. Elias was battling for a spot in the Boston rotation in the spring. He had a strong spring but the Red Sox opted to go with Steven Wright instead and let Elias work on some things. Elias has some very good off-speed stuff and has been able to miss bats at a solid rate (11% swing and miss rate over his MLB career). He has 241 K’s in 281 MLB innings. At Pawtucket, Elias struck out 60 batters in 60 innings over nine starts. He also won four of his last five starts at Pawtucket with a BB/K split of 8/40 over 36 innings. Elias is not some old journeyman pitcher. He’s only 27-years old and has had a taste of the big leagues before with moderate success. He now gets a huge opportunity to stick in a rotation that is desperate for starting pitching. After being in the big leagues for two plus years, there is nothing more motivating than getting another chance after riding buses and living the life of a minor-leaguer. Elias has the stuff to do well and time spent at Pawtucket may have served him well.
This pitching matchup may appear to favor the Mariners, which is why this number on Boston is so low. The Red Sox are usually a bigger price at home but perception is reality and the markets’ perception of Hisashi Iwakuma is that he’s a reliable and consistent starter. We will now try and take advantage of that incorrect perception.
Iwakuma is coming off a 7-5 win over the Rangers. If you watched that game than you saw 22 of the 27 batters that Iwakuma faced rip the cover off the ball. The only problem was that most of those were hit right at people. After watching roughly nine of Iwakuma’s 13 starts this year, including the last three, we’re suggesting that he’s hanging by a thread and his day has now arrived. Iwakuma’s velocity is way down to 87 MPH. He failed a physical with the Dodgers last off-season when they traded for him and sent him right back to where he came from because they didn’t like the results of said physical. Iwakuma’s strikeout rate is beginning to shrink. His struggles can be summed up in his 17%/25% dominant start/disaster start split. Rarely dominant with disasters starting to pile up, this park and this offense should absolutely destroy Iwakuma. Furthermore, Iwakuma has struggled greatly with the long ball over the last month, surrendering eight jacks in his last five starts. Iwakuma has a 14% career hr/f, so his 13% hr/f this season is not out of character for him. The Red Sox, who have a .863 OPS at home this season, are precisely the team to expose his weak profile in a big way. The Mariners have dropped four of five and their bullpen continues to struggle almost daily. The strategy is to keep fading the 35-year-old Iwakuma because he’s damn close to the end. We'll put that to the test here.
Power Sports
Washington vs. San Diego
Pick: Washington
These teams are simply miles apart in terms of class, as we saw in last night's 8-5 Nationals victory. I expect the domination to continue for the balance of the series. Washington has now won six of seven, the lone loss coming by a single run to the Cubs. They are +82 in run diff for the year while the Padres are -60.
That run differential for the Nats is tied for the second best in all of baseball, trailing obviously the Cubs. Meanwhile, only four teams have performed worse than the Padres and those are: Minnesota, Philadelphia, Atlanta and Cincinnati. Since the start of last year, the Nats are 6-2 against the Padres and that includes tonight's starter John Ross throwing six scoreless innings of one-hit ball against them last season. Three of Ross' last four starts overall have been quality.
San Diego sends Christian Friedrich to the bump, but the problem for the southpaw is that Washington is 8-4 this season in games where they face a left-handed starter. Washington also likes this price range as they are 20-7 their L27 games as a road favorite of -150 to -175 (5-1 this season). The Padres, meanwhile, are 3-10 as a home dog in the same price range. Friedrich might have an unbeaten TSR in three home starts, but his WHIP is 2.000.
Harry Bondi
DETROIT -125 over Kansas City
Another FREE WINNER with Detroit over Kansas City last night and we will continue to ride Tigers tonight behind the hottest pitcher in baseball, AL Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer. The 23 year old right hander has pitched 28 STRAIGHT SCORELESS INNINGS and allowed just 1 earned run in his last 34 innings of work! He faces Kansas City crazy man Yordano Ventura who is pitching while on parole as he is appealing a nine game suspension for throwing at Baltimore's Manny Machado FOUR TIMES before finally hitting him which led to a dugout clearing melee.
Bob Balfe
Rangers/Cardinals Over 8
Two big league pitchers at a 2015 price. What happen to Wacha this year? This total is based on a line we would see last year, but Wacha is just not the same and it will be a tough outing against a hot hitting Rangers team. I like St. Louis to put up runs of their own because they hit left handers very well. Look for a lot of runs.
Bruce Marshall
Indians -1.5 +160
The time is right to go against Chisox starter Jose Quintana, who has lost six straight starts, mirroring the Chicago descent to .500 status. Pale Hose batters are not helping Quintana, scoring a combined eight runs over his past six starts. Cleveland starter Trevor Bauer was not part of the sweep the Royals inflicted upon the Tribe earlier this week, in fact he has produced four quality starts in a row, and has worked at least seven innings in three straight starts.