Alex Smart
Rockies vs. Dodgers
Play: Rockies +203
Freeland the Rockies starter tonight against the LA Dodgers in game 1 of this series has emerged as the ace of the rotation in his first major league season, going 8-4 with a 3.42 ERA, and must be respected here in this spot as this big an underdog.Freeland faced the Dodgers twice in April, going 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA, and the Rockies won both games. I know the LA Dodgers are hot winning 7 straight, after a 4 game sweep of the NYMets , but the Rockies are no pushovers, and teams off a 4 game sweep have in the past shown a tendency to have let downs, in the first game of their next series. Meanwhile, the Dodgers will send Alex Wood (7-0, 1.90) to the hill to face the Rockies Friday.Wood has made seven appearances against the Rockies, with a 3-2 record and a bloated 5.59 ERA. Wood is admitedly hot, but his team is just is 4-14 against the money line in his career after 3 or more consecutive wins and is still vulnerable to getting lit up vs a Rockies side cn be offensively explosive. Colorado is 10-3 against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season.
COLORADO is 15-9 L/24 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season.FREELAND is 8-2 L/10 against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season.
MLB Road teams like the Rockies - hot hitting team - batting .290 or better over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 1.000 or less over his last 3 starts are 34-19 for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the moneyline.
Rocky Atkinson
Cincinnati at Washington
Play: Washington -1½
Cincinnati is 30-41 SU overall this year while Washington comes in with a 43-29 SU overall record on the season. Luis Castillo will be making his first start for the Reds this year. Stephen Strasburg is 8-2 with a 3.28 ERA overall this year. Cincinnati is 1-6 last 7 games overall where they are scoring only 3.9 runs per game while allowing 6 runs per game. Cincinnati is allowing 5.3 runs per game overall this year and 5.7 runs per game on the road this season. Washington is scoring 5.5 runs per game overall this year, 5.3 runs per game at home this season, 5.9 runs per game against right handed starters, 6.1 runs per game their past 7 games overall, 5.5 runs per game on grass and 6.4 runs per game at night. Washington is allowing only 3.9 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Washington is 30-11 this year when playing at night. We'll recommend a small play on Washington on the Run line on Friday night.
Brandon Lee
Rangers vs. Yankees
Play: Rangers +108
Texas is worth a look here against the Yankees. The hype around this game will be the starting pitching matchup that has a couple old rivals facing off for the first time in an MLB game. Texas's Yu Darvish against New York's Masahiro Tanaka. The numbers really tell the story here for these two. Darvish has a 3.26 ERA in 15 starts with a 2.65 ERA in 6 road starts. He also owns a 2.01 ERA in 5 career starts against the Yankees. Tanaka is having his worst season in the big leagues to date. He's got a 6.34 ERA and 1.487 WHIP in 14 starts. That includes a 5.88 ERA in 6 starts at home. Tanaka also owns an ugly 7.50 ERA in 2 career starts against Texas and the Rangers come in averaging 7.3 runs/game over their last 7.
Mike Lundin
Twins vs. Indians
Play: Over 10
The Minnesota Twins were shut out in a 9-0 loss to the White Sox yesterday. I think they'll make up for it with plenty of runs in tonight's opener of a three-game series at Cleveland.
The Tribe hand the ball to Trevor Bauer (6-5, 5.54 ERA) who held the Twins to a pair of runs on four hits in seven innings of a 5-2 victory at Minnesota his last time out. The Twins does however have the second best road record in the majors, and Bauer's 5.14ERA home at Progressive Field is nothing to brag about. Over is 10-2 in Bauer's last 12 home starts, over is 25-12-2 in Twins last 39 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
The Twins turn to Adalberto Mejia (1-3, 5.53 ERA) who lost to Cleveland on Saturday when he gave up two runs and five hits through 4 2/3 frames. He was lit up for nine runs (eight earned) in 3 2/3 innings by Seattle in his previous start.
Over is 16-7 in the last 23 meetings at Progressive Field.
Doc's Sports
Rangers vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -114
Yankee Stadium is the site of the matchup between the Texas Rangers and the New York Yankees on Friday, June 23, 2017. The probable starting pitchers are Yu Darvish for the Rangers and Masahiro Tanaka for the Yankees.
Texas opens at +118 while New York opens at -128. The Rangers have a 33-37-1 over/under record and a 41-30-0 run line mark. The Yankees are 41-28-0 against the run line and have a 40-29-0 over/under record.
Valuable Texas Rangers Betting Trends
The Texas Rangers are 33-37-1 against the over/under
The Texas Rangers are 41-30-0 against the run line
Important New York Yankees Betting Trends
The New York Yankees are 40-29-0 against the over/under
The New York Yankees are 41-28-0 against the run line
Useful Pitching Statistics
The Rangers have a 35-36 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Yu Darvish has a 6-5 record with an earned run average of 3.35 and a WHIP of 1.13. He has 99 strikeouts over his 94 innings pitched and he's given up 70 hits. He allows 6.7 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.13. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.51 and they have given up 238 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .262 against the bullpen and they've struck out 211 hitters and walked 98 batters. As a team, Texas allows 8.9 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.1 batters per nine innings. They are 16th in the league in team earned run average at 4.3. The Rangers pitchers collectively have given up 628 base hits and 302 earned runs. They have allowed 100 home runs this season, ranking them 9th in the league. Texas as a pitching staff has walked 246 batters and struck out 499. They have walked 3.5 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.1 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.38 and their FIP as a unit is 4.89.
Hitting Statistics
As a team Texas is hitting .242, good for 26th in the league. The Rangers hold a .420 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .315, which is good for 24th in baseball. They rank 27th in MLB with 8.1 hits per game. Nomar Mazara is hitting .278 with an on-base percentage of .344. He has 69 hits this season in 248 at bats with 46 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .464 and an OPS+ of 109. Elvis Andrus is hitting .288 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .332. He has totaled 80 hits and he has driven in 38 men in 278 at bats. His OPS+ is 100 while his slugging percentage is at .439. The Rangers have 577 hits, including 107 doubles and 99 home runs. Texas has walked 229 times so far this season and they have struck out 642 times as a unit. They have left 425 men on base and have a team OPS of .735. They score 4.9 runs per contest and have scored a total of 348 runs this year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
New York has a 39-30 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 6.34, Masahiro Tanaka has a 5-7 record and a 1.49 WHIP. He has 76 strikeouts over the 76.2 innings he's pitched. He's also given up 93 hits. He allows 10.9 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 5.65. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.23 and they have given up 171 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .207 against the Yankees bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 247 batters and walked 90 opposing hitters. As a team, New York allows 8 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.3 batters per nine innings. They are 4th in the league in team earned run average at 3.78. The Yankees pitchers as a team have surrendered 552 base knocks and 259 earned runs this season. They have given up 83 home runs this year, which ranks 22nd in Major League Baseball. New York as a staff has walked 204 hitters and struck out 637 batters. They give up a walk 3 times per 9 innings while they strike out 9.3 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.23 while their FIP as a staff is 3.90.
Hitting Statistics
As a team, they are batting .273, good for 4th in the league. The Yankees hold a .469 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .350, which is good for 1st in baseball. They rank 3rd in MLB with 9.6 hits per contest. Aaron Judge comes into this matchup batting .331 with an OBP of .438. He has 81 hits this year along with 54 RBI in 245 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .694 with an OPS+ of 190. Starlin Castro is hitting .321 this season and he has an OBP of .358. He has collected 90 hits in 280 at bats while driving in 44 runs. He has an OPS+ of 123 and a slugging percentage of .504. The Yankees as a unit have 663 base hits, including 115 doubles and 114 homers. New York has walked 274 times this year and they have struck out on 617 occasions. They have had 517 men left on base and have an OPS of .819. They have scored 5.71 runs per game and totaled 394 runs this season.
Jimmy Boyd
Tigers / Padres Under 8
I think we are getting some great value here with the UNDER in Friday's series opener between the Tigers and Padres. Detroit will send out one of the few bright spots to this season in second-year starter Michael Fulmer, who is tied for 5th in baseball with 11 quality starts (13 total starts). Fulmer has a 3.45 ERA and 1.186 WHIP overall, but has been much better on the road, where he owns a 2.30 ERA and 1.093 WHIP in 6 starts. His ERA over his last 3 is 6.50, but he was sharp in his last outing, giving up just 3 runs in 6 2/3 against the Rays. He's also facing a Padres offense that has scored a whopping 6 runs in their last 4 games combined.
San Diego will counter with Luis Perdomo, who has pitched at least 6 innings and allowed 3 or fewer runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. The only exception coming in a road start against a potent Diamondbacks offense in one of the most hitter friendly parks. In fact, Arizona is the only team to put more than 3 earned runs on the board against Perdomo this season.
UNDER is 21-7 in Padres last 28 home games after scoring 4 run or less in 4 straight games, 4-0-1 in Tigers last 5 interleague road games against a right-handed starter and 5-1 in Perdomo's last 6 starts after he allowed 2 runs or less in his previous outing.
Sleepyj
Cubs / Marlins Over 9
I'm going to take a shot on the over here...Lackey stinks and he has been getting hit left and right...Marlins off a blowout loser should come out for revenge here...I also like the fact that the Marlins just saw him a few games back..He didn't fool Miami as he took another L for the Cubbies...Urena goes for the Marlins and he has been avg at best...Cubs got the bats going yesterday and I'm hoping they can keep it up for one more days..They also saw Urena a few games back and the Cubs should be able to get after him as well...I doubt either pitcher goes deep here and the bullpens for both teams have been down for the most part...I think we see a bunch of runs here..I won't be shocked if this dips to 8.5 for a brief moment and goes back to 9...Lackey stinks.
The Prez
Philadelphia at Arizona
Play: Arizona -200
The club with the worst record in the "bigs" will take Chase Field on Friday night when Philadelphia (23-48) square off against an Arizona
squad with the best home record (26-9) in baseball with first pitch scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET in Phoenix. The Phillies send right-hander Mark Leiter Jr. (0-0, 4.74 ERA) to the hill to oppose Diamondbacks southpaw Patrick Corbin (6-6, 5.19).
Arizona have won seven of their last eight, all of which have come on the road, a 7-1 road trip that included a three-game sweep of tonight's foe Philadelphia.
Leiter makes his first career start and does so by default. The right-hander has surrendered 12 runs in 12 relief appearances this season and during that span he has allowed 14 walks. The son and nephew of former big leaguers was a 22nd round selection and at 26-years-old isn't capable or comfortable on the MLB mound. In his last two trips to the hill he has permitted five runs on four hits and three walks in two-thirds of an inning.
On the farm, last year (2016), Leiter didn't pitch into the sixth inning until mid-season. He is overmatched tonight at Chase by a Diamondback lineup that is slashing .275/.346/.472/.817 versus right-handers this season.
Corbin hasn't done enough to write home about this season but he has rebounded from a difficult late May and early June stretch with two straight wins. His last outing, this past Friday in Philadelphia's CB Park, the lefty allowed two earned runs on five hits in six frames.
There won't be too many occasions when I recommend backing a pitcher with an ERA of 5.19 at -200-plus but tonight the oddsmakers not only have the correct price point on the D'Backs starter Corbin he not only lowers his ERA but secures his seventh win of the 2017 campaign.
Wunderdog
Astros vs, Mariners
Pick: Astros +109
The Astros just keep on winning, having reeled off four straight and now sitting at 50-24 - tops in the Majors. Tonight we get a good plus-money price with a pitcher who has posted a 3.63 ERA his last three strats going against a pitcher who has struggled of late. Felix Martinez is having a pedestrian year and over his last three starts, he has allowed nine earned runs. Over the past three seasons, the Mariners have not reacted well to winning, going 47-54 at home when following a win. Meanwhile, the Astros are 74-47 under manager A.J. Hinch after back-to-back wins.
Harry Bondi
SAN DIEGO (+115) over Detroit
Tigers let us down as the FREE WINNER yesterday and if they can’t win versus the Triple A pitcher Seattle beat them with last night, there is no way they should be favored here! San Diego is pretty pathetic themselves, but as a home dog against a team that has lost 6 in a row, we can’t pass up the value. Take the Padres.
Bob Balfe
Rangers/Yankees Over 10
The Yankees have been the best team in baseball at hitting right handed pitching and in their own ballpark tend to put up a lot of runs. The Rangers have been crushing the ball the past few games and get to go against a struggling pitcher with Tanaka on the mound. I think both teams light up the scoreboard with the winner of the game itself getting close to double digit runs.
Bruce Marshall
Rockies at Dodgers
Pick: Rockies
We're not going to say anything bad about the Dodgers, who have been soaring the past two weeks with wins in 12 of 13 to take the lead in the NL West. And Friday starter Alex Wood spun six shutout innings vs. Colorado at Denver on May 13. But the Blue nonetheless appears a bit overpriced tonight against the Rockies and rookie Kyle Freeland, who continues to impress with an 8-4 mark and 3.42 ERA. Can't pass up this price on the Rocks, an NL-best 25-13 on the road.
Jesse Schule
Philadelphia at Arizona
Pick: Arizona
The Phillies ended a five game losing skid by winning the final game of a home series versus St. Louis Thursday, and now they head out on the road for four games in Arizona this weekend. They will send a rookie to the mound in Game 1, and this could be a blowout. Mark Leiter Jr. will toe the slab for Philly, and he's been working out of the bullpen in his first season in the majors. He's allowed 12 runs on 11 hits and a whopping 14 walks in 19 innings of work. The D'Backs will hand the ball to Patrick Corbin, who has been solid at home. Corbin (6-6, 5.19 ERA) allowed two earned runs on five hits, striking out six in six innings in a win at Philly his last time out. He's 5-1 with a 3.51 ERA in eight starts at Chase Field in 2017. Only the Padres have scored fewer runs this year than Philadelphia. The Phillies have also lost seven of their last 10 road games versus a left-handed starter.
Zack Cimini
Houston vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle
Do the Mariners have to change over their future plans with Felix Hernandez as their top starter? Over the last two seasons King Felix has not been in form of his 20s. Yet, the Mariners bats may be the true value here. They've been on a tear as a whole leading the Mariners to five consecutive victories. In those victories they've scored five runs or more. Grab the detracted value here on the Mariners as Houston continues their road trip.
DAVE PRICE
Rangers vs. Yankees
Play: Rangers +108
The Texas Rangers are 9-4 in their last 13 games overall. They have scored at least 5 runs in 10 of those 13 games to really get their bats going. The New York Yankees are mired in their worst slump of the season as they are just 1-8 in their last 9 games overall despite being a massive favorite time and time again. Now we have the wrong team favored in this game Friday considering the Rangers have a big advantage on the mound. Yu Darvish is 6-5 with a 3.26 ERA in 15 starts this year, and 3-2 with a 2.65 ERA in 6 road starts. Darvish is also 3-1 with a 2.01 ERA in 5 lifetime starts vs. New York. Masahiro Tanaka is 5-7 with a 6.34 ERA in 14 starts this season. Tanaka is also 0-1 with a 7.50 ERA in 2 lifetime starts vs. Texas. Tanaka is 0-7 when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. The Rangers are 10-2 in road games after scoring 10 runs or more over the last 3 seasons. Texas is 8-2 in Darvish's last 10 road starts. The Rangers are 6-1 in their last 7 road games.