DAVE COKIN
ASTROS VS. ROYALS
PLAY: ROYALS +105
Not the most detailed analysis here, but this really came down to just a couple of key components for me, so anything additional would merely be extraneous info.
Houston is coming on strong, but they’re going to have to show me they can get it done on the road. Meanwhile, the Royals have been a disaster away from KC, but at Kauffman this team is still lights out, with a 25-8 record. Just on that alone, the Royals should pretty much not be home dogs against anybody.
The pitching matchup tonight is pretty close, but just as with the team data, we have a pretty significant H/R split for both Dallas Keuchel and Edinson Volquez. Keuchel has better overall data, but when just checking him as a visitor against Volquez at home, it’s the KC righty that wins the duel. Kansas City, as is usually the case, owns the better bullpen.
The one red flag for me is the Astros being on a 5-0 current run. But with the KC home ledger plus the way they’ve hit southpaws at home, I have to grab the small plus here with the Royals.
Rob Vinciletti
Red Sox vs. Rangers
Play: Red Sox -160
Boston has D. Price on the mound and they are scoring 5.5 runs per game on the road. N. Martinez was shaky in his first start for Texas and could struggle again here against this vaunted Boston lineup. For further support we head to the MLB League wide systems database and offer this nice system. Play on road favorites at -140 or higher that come in off a home favored win at -140 or more and scored 5 or more runs, vs an opponent like Texas that is off a home win. these road favorites have won all 9 times they have applies since 2004. Play on Boston.
Mike Lundin
Blue Jays vs. White Sox
Play: Blue Jays -137
The Chicago White Sox are coming off an 8-7 loss to the Red Sox at Fenway on Thursday, but they still did Toronto a favor by taking three of four from the Jays division rival in that series. I don't think the Jays will show any gratitude tonight though, but come out swinging to put a beating on the White Sox.
Aaron Sanchez (7-1, 3.35 ERA) takes the ball for Toronto. He's yet to lose on the road this season as the 23 year old is 5-0 with a 2.43 ERA and .205 batting average against in eight starts. Sanchez held the Orioles to a pair of runs in a 13-3 win at Camden Yards his last time out.
The White Sox turn to Carlos Rodon (2-6, 4.16) who is 1-3 with a 4.55 ERA in six home starts this season. The White Sox have lost eight of his last nine starts overall and the 23 year old southpaw has a 1.49 WHIP on the season while allowing opponents a .289 batting average. We can note that the Blue Jays are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Rodon held Cleveland to a pair of runs on eight hits in 6 1/3 innings his last start but the White Sox are 1-5 in his last six starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
The White Sox are 2-5 in their last seven home games following a road trip of seven or more days and they're averaging just 3.85 runs per game home at U.S. Cellular Field this season. Odds are they'll struggle to keep up with the Jays high-octane offense tonight.
Stephen Nover
Chicago vs. Miami
Play: Miami +142
Given their injuries, bullpen problems and Kyle Hendricks pitching on the road, the Cubs opened way too high for this matchup against the Marlins.
Chicago has lost a season-high four straight games. The Cubs are not that strong with Dexter Fowler and Jorge Soler on the DL and Anthony Rizzo and Miguel Montero questionable. Neither Rizzo (sore back) nor Montero (knee) played on Thursday during the Cubs' 4-2 loss to Miami.
The Cubs have scored nine runs in their last four games, failing to score more than three in any of the matchups. Can they break through against Tom Koehler? He's a bottom-of-the-rotation type, but pitches better at home with a 3.58 ERA compared to 4.17 on the road. Koehler is in decent form, too, allowing three runs or fewer during each of his last nine starts. The Marlins have a rested A.J. Ramos, who is perfect in save opportunities this season, to finish.
The Marlins are 5-2 in their last seven games. They have won six of their past eight games at Marlins Park.
Hendricks is 1-5 away from Wrigley Field with a 4.36 ERA. He has a huge home/road split since he's 4-1 at home with a 1.93 ERA. Chicago has dropped Hendricks' past five road starts. The Cubs' bullpen is going through a tough stretch with a 4.30 ERA this month and 5.40 ERA during their past eight games.
The Cubs' bullpen situation is dire enough that management is resurrecting 41-year-old Joe Nathan, who has begun a minor-league rehab assignment after being out nearly the entire 2015 season following Tommy John surgery.
Jim Feist
Astros vs. Royals
Play: Under 8½
Houston ranks No. 14 in baseball in team ERA, while the defending champion Royals are No. 10. The Under is 38-17-6 when the Astros face the American League Central division. Lefty Dallas Keuchel had a rough start but is helping to lead the Houston surge, allowing 3 runs or less in 5 of his last 9 starts. Houston is on a 13-3 run under the total, 12-2 under against a winning team. KC starter Edinson Volquez is a veteran who has been sharp at home with a 5-2 record and a 2.61 ERA, 9-3-1 under the total when he pitches at home. And the Under is 11-5-1 in Volquez's last 17 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Bob Harvey
San Diego at Cincinnati
Play: San Diego +111
The San Diego Padres go for their fifth victory in six outings when they visit the Cincinnati Reds in Game 2 of a four-game set.
The Padres (30-43, 43-31 RL) took the series opener on Thursday using home runs by Matt Kemp and Derek Norris to post a 7-4 victory. The Reds (28-44, 38-34 RL) have enjoyed an unexpected power source in Adam Duvall hit his 21st shot of the year for Cincinnati, which has lost six of its last eight games. Duvall has been hot of late, swatting four homers and driving in 10 runs over his last 10 contests giving him 20 round-trippers on the year, second only to Nolan Arenado in the National League.
Rea (3-3, 5.02 ERA) is mired in a seven start winless streak. He settled for a no-decision on Saturday against Washington after giving up two runs - one earned - and four hits in 6 1/3 innings. Rea won his only career start against Cincinnati.
Reed (0-0, 5.14) will be making his second career start since having his contract purchased from Triple-A Louisville. The 23-year-old from Memphis struck out nine over seven innings at Houston on Saturday and escaped with a no-decision after surrendering four runs on six hits - two homers - and three walks. Reed went 6-3 with a 3.20 ERA in 11 starts at Louisville before joining the Reds.
Another possible betting angle could be the OVER. Cincinnati is 40-26 to the high side this season.
Bruce Marshall
Arizona at Colorado
Pick: Over
Zack Greinke is on quite a roll for the D-backs but he has never pitched well at Coors Field,,where he has a 5.17 ERA since 2013. he's been even worse this season vs. the Rockies, who have hit him hard twice, as Greinke has a 7.36 ERA and .354 OBA vs. the Rocks (both games at Phoenix) this season. Meanwhile, the Arizona bats ought to do some business vs. shaky Colorado starter Eddie Butler and his 6.26 ERA.
Larry Ness
Tampa Bay at Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore
The Baltimore’s Manny Machado returns to the lineup for the beginning of a four-game series with the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday at Camden Yards. The third baseman was suspended the previous four games for charging the mound and punching Kansas City Royals pitcher Yordano Ventura on June 7 (Orioles went 2-2 without Machado). The series includes a doubleheader Saturday and Baltimore manager Buck Showalter is already making plans for a roster move. "We get to add a pitcher for both games of the doubleheader on Saturday, so we got through this four-game stretch without Manny," Showalter said after a 7-3 victory over the San Diego Padres on Wednesday.
Yovani Gallardo (2-1, 6.26 ERA) will make his second start for Baltimore since coming off the DL on June 18 from right shoulder biceps tendinitis. In that outing, Gallardo allowed two runs, five hits and five strikeouts in five innings of a 4-2 win over the Toronto Blue Jays. The Rays will counter with left-hander Matt Moore (3-4, 4.90 ERA), who has given up nine HRs in his past seven starts and that hardly bodes well as the Baltimore lineup has hit 42 HRs in its last 20 games. The Rays are 5-9 (minus-$500) in Moore’s 14 starts in 2016 and his lifetime mark against the Orioles is 4-5 with a 3.61 ERA in 10 starts (team is 4-6).
Tampa Bay opens this series having lost SEVEN straight and has matched a season worst by falling eight games below .500 (31-39). Baltimore enjoyed a rare off-day on Thursday after playing 29 games in 30 days but despite that tough stretch, the Orioles remain atop the AL East at 41-30 (1 1/2 games up on the Red Sox). Baltimore is 27-13 (averaging 5.08 RPG) at home, giving them the second-best home moneyline mark in MLB at plus-$1104. Considering Moore’s made five road starts in 2016, posting a 6.35 ERA and 1.76 WHIP (Rays are 0-5!), is there ANY reason NOT to back Baltimore?
Marc Lawrence
Cleveland at Detroit
Pick: Cleveland
Edges - Indians: Danny Salazar 2.23 ERA with 1.12 WHIP this season; and Tribe 15-6 this month, and 21-10 versus division foes this season. Tigers: Jordan Zimmerman 4.43 ERA home as opposed to 1.96 ERA away this season. Look for the Indians to improve to 9-3 on Fridays this season here tonight. We recommend a 1* play on Cleveland.
Scott Rickenbach
Washington at Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee +1.5
Nice home dog spot for the Brewers considering Zach Davies is on the mound for Milwaukee and we can get the +1.5 runs at a pick'em price. Davies is enjoying an incredible stretch as he has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 8 of his last 9 starts! In his last 4 starts he's been particularly hot as the veteran right-hander has allowed only 3 earned runs on just 13 hits in the 28 innings spanning those 4 outings. These are phenomenal numbers and he now has the added edge of facing a Nationals team that has never faced him. While Washington does have Max Scherzer on the mound and the veteran righty is in great current form and has also enjoyed success against Milwaukee in his career, I just don't see the Nationals as being able to create any kind of separation in this game. The Nats come into this game having lost 5 straight and they've only scored 2.4 runs per game in those 5 games. Taking a look at their last 11 games Washington only has 3 victories by a multiple-run margin during this 11-game stretch. 10 of Milwaukee's last 21 defeats have come by just a single run and the Brewers come into this game having won 14 of their last 23 home games!
Dave Essler
Kansas City +110
Keuchel hasn't been right all season, as we know, but even last season he was beatable on the road. Add that to the Royals being 25-8 at home while the Astros are under .500 (15-21) on the road and we've got a great start. In the last three years Keuchel has made four starts against Kansas City and their hitting .302 against him. Only one of those starts was in KC and he was lit up. I'd like to see THAT again, but I'll take the W. Volquez has been all over the map. but what has been consistent about him is the ground ball/fly ball ratio. He's kept it in the park, which should mean a favorable matchup against a team that scores mainly via the long ball, or more so than most teams. The Royals are 9-5 against left handed starters - Moustakas and Gordon not playing isn't a big deal since they were a combined 1-11 off of Keuchel (small size, I get it) - and yes, Houston has been winning of late - at home and against the Angels and the Reds, and when we take the Royals we've got a bullpen advantage over just about every team in MLB.
JEFF ALEXANDER
Indians/Tigers Under 8
The books have set the total too high for this one, as we have two above-average starters facing off in Friday's series opener between the Tigers and Indians. Cleveland gives the ball to Danny Salazar, who is 8-3 with a 2.23 ERA and 1.116 WHIP in 13 starts. Salazar also comes into this game in prime form with a 1.77 ERA in his last 3 outings. Detroit counters with Jordan Zimmermann, who is 9-3 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 13 starts. Zimmermann was dominant in his last outing, giving up just 1 run on 4 hits in 8 innings at KC.
JACK JONES
San Diego Padres +113
Excellent value on the Padres visiting the Cincinnati Reds Friday. The one consistent positive San Diego has had going for them this season is tearing up left-handed starters. As a team they are hitting a good 30 points higher (.272) and scoring almost one and a half more runs per game (5.6) against lefties.
Cincy holds the third-worst record in the Majors and is sporting a losing record at home this season (17-20). They also have a suspect history against the Padres in recent meetings. San Diego holds a 10-3 advantage over the last three seasons, including a 5-2 mark in Cincinnati.
BRANDON LEE
Padres vs. Reds
Play: Over 9.5
I'm expecting a lot of offensive fireworks in Friday's matchup between the Reds and Padres. Both of these teams come in swinging the bat well. The Reds are averaging right around 5 runs/game in the month of June and the Padres lead all NL teams with 116 runs scored in June. With this game being played at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark and two average starters on the mound, both teams should score early and often. San Diego will give the ball to Colin Rea, who has a 5.09 ERA and 1.401 WHIP in 13 starts. Cincinnati on the other hand give the ball to lefty Cody Reed for just his second career start. This will be Reeds first home start and I look for him to struggle to overcome the emotions. He's also facing a Padres offense that has torched left-handed pitching. San Diego is scoring 5.6 runs/game and hitting .272 as a team against southpaw starters this season.
JOHN RYAN
Cardinals vs. Mariners
Play: Mariners +125
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 59-33 over the last 5 seasons good for 64% winners and made 28 units/unit wagered. Play on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SEATTLE) - after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base, with a tired bullpen - throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Seattle is 25-16 (+7.8 Units) against the money line vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season; 22-7 (+15.8 Units) against the money line after batting .200 or worse over a 3 game span over the last 2 seasons. St. Louis is 2-8 (-8.6 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off this season. Matheny is 18-33 (-18.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing with a day off as the manager of St. Louis. Cardinals are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. American League West. Cardinals are 1-4 in Martinez's last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Mariners are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter. Mariners are 6-1 in their last 7 interleague games.
Fundamental Discussion Points The Cardinals are playing in Seattle for the first time since 2002 when they were shut out twice while losing two of three games.Seattle 3B Kyle Seager has four homers over his last 12 games. Seattle is stellar this season in inter-league play posting 9.1 RPG, a .322 average, .402 OBP, and slugging .506. Take Seattle Mariners.