DAVE PRICE
St. Louis -115
Bargain price here with a floundering Seattle team against the surging St. Louis Cardinals with the red-hot Carlos Martinez on the mound. Martinez has been almost untouchable of late, going 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in his last three starts. The Cards are riding high off of a much needed sweep over the Chicago Cubs and that momentum should carry over to a successful series against Seattle, losers of 6 straight and 10 of their last 12 overall.
JIMMY BOYD
Pirates -126
It's been a miserable stretch here for the Pirates, who lost the final 3 games of the series against the Giants after getting a win against Bumgarner in the series opener. Pittsburgh might not be as good as they have been in previous years, but there's still a lot of talent on this team and it's only a matter of time before they get things turned around.
I like their chances of doing just that tonight, as the Dodgers make the long trip out east after a 7-game homestand. LA is forced to turn to Nick Tepesch, who hasn't started a big league game since 2014. Chances are he's going to struggle and likely won't pitch deep into the game even if he's throwing well.
Pittsburgh will counter with talented youngster Jameson Taillon, who has been up and down over his first 3 big league starts. Now that he's got his feet wet, I look for him to settle in and really start to pitch up his potential.
The Dodgers are an average offensive team at best and are just 1-7 in their last 8 after back-to-back wins by 2 runs or less. LA is also just 4-15 in their last 19 road games after playing 3 or more consecutive games at home and 3-11 in their last 14 road games after 3 or more consecutive wins.
MICHAEL ALEXANDER
Dodgers vs. Pirates
Play: Dodgers +118
The Los Angeles Dodgers are heating up with the summer now upon us while the Pittsburgh Pirates have cooled down considerably with losses in 13 of their last 15 contests. The red-hot Dodgers will vie for their seventh consecutive victory tonight when they take on Pittsburgh. Los Angeles has opted to give rookie right-hander Kenta Maeda an extra day of rest and plans to recall Tepesch from Triple-A Oklahoma City to make Friday's spot start. The 27-year-old Tepesch exercised his opt-out clause with the Texas Rangers earlier this month and signed with the Dodgers, who promptly shuffled to him to their minor league affiliate where he has posted a 3-0 mark with a 2.00 ERA. Tepesch dominated in his last outing by allowing just one run on three hits in eight innings, but will make his first start in the majors since the 2014 season.
SPORTS WAGERS
Montreal +120 over WINNIPEG
Maybe it's the return to the royal blues of their heyday or the signing of a few high profile free agents but there is a buzz around the Blue Bombers heading into Week 1. While the additions of running back Andrew Harris and receivers Weston Dressler and Ryan Smith look nice when it's time to sell jerseys, we see these additions as purely cosmetic. The Bombers still have major problems on the offensive line and free agent signing center, Jeff Keeping is out at least eight weeks after suffering a knee injury. It's so bad that Bombers offensive line Coach, Bob Wylie is already on the offensive, defending a unit that gave up the second most sacks in the league last year with 59. Wylie went off last week, “We let up 59 sacks! Are you sure it was us, we let up every sack? Are you positive with that shit? No, we let up every sack, is that right? We are a part of it, but of the 71 sacks the club allowed two years ago, the offensive line game up 27″. The Bombers did not address their weak offensive line in the off-season and so it is very suspect again.
Four of the five starters from last seasons’ suspect offensive line are back. Richie Hall’s defense was ranked eighth in the league last season, and it allowed a whopping average of 6.8 yards on first down. Winnipeg’s cover teams were atrocious in 2015, costing special teams’ coordinator Pat Tracey his job in September. The Bombers allowed four punt returns for touchdowns.
On offense, the Blue Bombers welcomed former HC Paul La Police back to the fold and he will serve as Mike O'Shea's offensive coordinator this season. That could be a little awkward for O'Shea, as LaPolice’s original ouster came with much controversy. It will be a tough task integrating a new receiving group that was unable to suit up together during the preseason, as Dressler sat out both exhibition games. In game one of the preseason, the Bombers handled the Als 36-13 at Investors Group Field but the only thing that does is give us a better number here.
Kevin Glenn is timeless. It's hard to believe he was sent packing by the Bombers in 2009 just over a year after leading the Bombers to the Grey Cup. One could argue he'd have been Winnipeg's best option at QB the last seven years. Regardless, he's bounced around the league but always seems to find himself in the starter’s role. Glenn will not have to wait for an injury before taking the reins, as the Als will let the vet lead the offense from day one. Glenn is surrounded by great talent that includes standout receiver Duran Carter who he hooked up with in Week 2 of the preseason for a 78-yard major. Carter returns following a season of sitting in the NFL. Fellow receiver Kenny Stafford returns as a free agent from Edmonton.Tyrell Sutton, the CFL’s leading rusher last season, returns to the backfield. Offensively more than capable and very dangerous, the Als strength is not even on the offensive side.
Veteran rush-end John Bowman led the league in sacks in 2015, with 19 and that was despite missing two games while being benched by former head coach Tom Higgins. Also back is middle-linebacker Bear Woods, who missed most of the season with a torn pectoral muscle. In 2014, when he was relatively healthy, Woods was the division’s nominee as most outstanding defensive player. The Als signed defensive-tackle Vaughn Martin, a 2011 draft choice who has been playing in the NFL, mostly with San Diego and Miami. Rush-end DeQuin Evans comes over as a free agent following two seasons at Calgary, while veteran cornerback Jovon Johnson was added from Ottawa.
After using seven different QB’s last year, Montreal comes into this season with some stability both at QB and in the coaching ranks. While Kevin Glenn is no Anthony Calvillo, the market would be wise not to sleep on the 15-year vet.
There's going to be a lot of excitement in the Manitoba capital tonight as the NHL Draft will be broadcast before this game. In case you didn't know, the Jets moved up in the lottery and will pick second so there figures to be a buzz in the stadium. We say big deal. The Bombers have a ton of pressure on them to win now. They have missed the playoffs in four straight years and they’re losing fans quickly because of it. Another bad year and theses seats will be empty once the cold weather rolls in. A bad start here and the fans will be booing these Bombers off the field tonight. Montreal is a well-established, soundly run CFL team that has missed the playoffs once since 1996. That was last year and we trust the Als franchise to get back on track quickly much more than we trust the Bombers and it all starts here. Als outright is the call.
TONY FINN
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
Play: New York Mets -1.5 +100
The defending National League champions take to Turner Field for Game #2 of a four-game series when the New York Mets (38-33) tangle with the Atlanta Braves (25-47). The Braves, who have the worst record in the NL, have won seven of their last eight, six consecutive wins, before Wednesday's loss to the Miami Marlins. Atlanta returned to the winners column on Thursday night with a come-from-behind victory over struggling Matt Harvey and look to begin another positive streak tonight versus southpaw Steven Matz
The Braves are relying on a rejuvenated pitching staff and the bat of Freddie Freeman in combination with the power of Adonis Garcia to carry the offense. Freeman was batting .458 (11-of-24) with a homer and four RBI heading into Thursday night's tilt against the Mets. The first baseman was 3-of-15 in his career against Mets starter Matt Harvey with one RBI and was 1-for-4 in the team's 4-3 victory at Turner on Thursday.
As much as New York is struggling with injuries that has effected their offense the Braves have done almost nothing against left-handed pitching in the first two-plus months of the season and the situation of battling a southpaw tonight confronts them once again.
Mets
The Mets players and coaches spoke openly about tonight's starting pitcher, Steven Matz, and the concerns regarding the elbow tightness that left-hander dealt with during his start against the Braves last Saturday.
"He didn't seem too concerned about it," Mets skipper Terry Collins told the press. "He was warming up and it was a little tight. He loosened up and when I told him he was done, he told me his elbow was a little tight anyway."
Matz (7-3, 2.74 ERA) makes his 19th career start against the Braves tonight. The New York southpaw is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA in four outings against Atlanta and he has two wins over the NL foe twice this season. Matz held the Braves to two runs and four hits with seven strikeouts in six innings of a no-decision on Saturday. The young lefty has had his share of hot and not-so-hot stretches this season. The 25-year-old won seven straight starts after losing his season debut and is currently riding an 0-2 starting run with a 4.24 ERA in June.
The New York left-hander was 7-0 mid-month with a 2.71 ERA (3.10 SIERA) with a 4.69 K/BB ratio. Matz has stellar command and an above average strikeout rate (25%).
Braves
Right-hander Aaron Blair has yet to record his first major-league victory. The oddsmakers opened the struggling Mets and Matz has dollar-and-a-half favorites at Turner Field tonight and the money-line has moved the last 12-plus hours making New York minus-170 chalk at some offshore outlets.
The rookie pitched well enough to earn a win in his last start, a no-decision against the Mets on Saturday, giving up three runs and five hits with just one walk in six innings of work. The youngster lefty came into last weekend's turn against New York having allowed six or more runs three times in his previous five outings, walking 11 over 13 1/3 frames in his first three outings in June.
Blair is a typical young left-hander, one that struggles with command and a ground-to-fly ball ratio. The Braves southpaw is making just the 11th start of his career tonight and he takes his turn having given up 26 walks and seven home runs in just 46 1/3 innings.
Outlook
Blair takes the mound tonight in a spot that isn't favorable. He faces a hungry Mets bunch and his offense has been completely quiet this season when facing left-handed pitchers.
Key Stats
The Braves are dead last in all of baseball when examining their stat-line against left-handed arms. As a team they are hitting .224 with an on-base-percentage of just .283. They have hit only 9 home runs against lefties this year in 854 at-bats and their OPS versus southpaws heading into tonight's tilt is a mere .586. No offensive club in either league has such porous numbers against left-handed pitching, not even close.
OSKEIM SPORTS
Arizona vs. Colorado
Play: Colorado -132
I have been extremely impressed by Colorado southpaw Tyler Anderson, who began the season on the Disabled List with a right oblique strain. The 20th overall selection in the 2011 draft, Anderson impressed in his Major League debut on June 12 against the Padres, allowing just one extra-base hit and recording 60 strikes among his 92 pitches (6.3 IP; 1 ER; 6/0 K/BB). The talented lefty followed up that performance with another solid against the Marlins, limited Miami to two runs over 5 2/3 innings of work. Overall, Anderson owns a 2.25 ERA and 0.91 WHIP this season, and boasts a 10/1 K/BB ratio in 12 innings pitched.
Anderson's surface statistics are fully supported by his underlying metrics: 1.70 FIP, 2.67 xFIP and 2.88 SIERA. The 26-year-old also owns a 58.8% GB%, which will certainly help him in Colorado's thin air. Indeed, the youngster has now allowed a home run in his first two career starts. Anderson now faces an injury-riddled Arizona lineup missing outfielders David Peralta (lower back sprain), Chris Owings (plantar fasciitis) and A.J. Pollack (elbow surgery). The Diamondbacks are ranked 17th in MLB in runs scored on the road and have struggled to plate runs in June.
Specifically, Arizona is currently ranked 21st this month in both runs scored and OPS (.715), while also ranking 26th in OBP (.302). Meanwhile, Arizona right-hander Archie Bradley toes the rubber with a 4.83 ERA and 1.31 WHIP this season, including posting a 7.87 ERA and 1.75 WHIP at night, a 6.56 ERA and 1.41 WHIP versus division foes and a 4.67 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over his last three starts. The 23-year-old also owns a 6.14 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in two career starts against the Rockies.
The blue-chip prospect has always struggled with his command, walking nearly five batters per nine innings in the minors (12% walk rate). This season, Bradley owns a 4.39 BB/9 rate and a corresponding 11.4% BB%. Bradley has also been susceptible to giving up the long ball (1.54 HR/9), which is a certain death sentence at Coors Field where the Rockies are 1st in MLB in OPS (.892), OBP (.365) and SLG (.527). Equally important, Bradley's lack of command will be put to the test tonight as the Rockies are 5th in MLB in drawing walks at home, while owning the 4th-fewest strikeouts.
With Colorado standing at 21-12 (+14.7 units) following a one-run loss over the past two seasons, take the Rockies and invest with confidence.
SCOTT SPREITZER
St. Louis Cardinals at Seattle Mariners
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -135
Seattle staggers home after being swept in a four-game series at Detroit and now has to travel three time zones with no rest. The Mariners added to their misery by coming back from a 4-1 deficit only to lose on a wild pitch in 10 innings. Wade LeBlanc is scheduled to start in place of Taijuan Walker, who has tendinitis in his right foot, but regardless the Mariners are in a tough spot facing St. Louis, which is coming off a sweep of the first-place Cubs. Not only is Seattle's starting rotation in a bind, but the bullpen also is in trouble as the Mariners used six relievers on Thursday. Carlos Martinez has four quality starts in a row after a rough stretch in May and the right-hander is 4-1 with a 1.78 ERA on the road. Martinez has allowed only four runs in 21 1/3 innings in June, including seven shutout innings against Texas last Saturday. I'm backing the Cardinals on Friday night.
Zack Cimini
Indians at Tigers
Play: Indians
Two pitching stalwarts take the mound on Friday. For Cleveland it's Danny Salazar and the Tigers Jordan Zimmerman. It seems that the Indians fed off their cities championship vibes as they have won six straight all at home. Traveling on the road to Detroit will put their streak on the line. Yet, I see the value still on the Indians side. Detroit's is coming off a series sweep against the Mariners in which they survived with timely hits against a shaky bullpen. Cleveland's staff has settled in and more importantly the Tribe are confident at the plate. Take the Indians to keep their streak alive with a road win.
Wunderdog
Los Angeles @ Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota -4
The rematch! Defending champion Minnesota showed everyone who is still boss by winning at Los Angeles in an unbeaten showdown the last game, 72-69 as a dog. One weakness Los Angeles has is rebounding, ranked #11 in the league, and Minnesota crushed them on the glass, 42-29, including 12-5 on the offensive boards. Sylvia Fowles had 11 rebounds and helped contain the Sparks' high-powered frontcourt of Candace Parker and Nneka Ogwumike. Parker and Ogwumike have combined to average 32.7 points this season, but the duo was held 18 points against the terrific Lynx' defense (LA shot 40%). Minnesota is second in the WNBA in points scored, points allowed and assists. The Lynx are 8-2 ATS against the Western Conference and the Sparks are 4-10 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Minnesota.
Drew Martin
San Diego at Cincinnati
Play: 1st 5 Under 5
The Cincinnati Reds host the San Diego Padres for the second game of a four-game series. The Padres took the first game last night 7-4. Both teams are dealing with key injuries to the lineup and both are throwing young promising starting pitchers tonight. The Reds send Cody Reed the hill for his second MLB start. Reed allowed four earned runs in seven innings in his first outing. The 23-year-old from Horn Lake, Miss., was a second-round pick in 2013 out of Northwest Mississippi Community College. “He’s a lefty with real good stuff,” Price said. “Very athletic. Fastball, slider, changeup. Extremely competitive. He just seems to me to be a guy who’s really comfortable in competition and doesn’t see an environment as being imposing as others would.” The 6-5 225-pound southpaw will be facing a San Diego lineup that may be shorthanded without Jon Jay, who hasn't played since being hit by a pitch on Sunday. Jay is still experiencing some soreness.On the other side, the Reds lineup might be without their best player, Joey Votto who was not in the starting lineup for the third straight game because of an illness. His availability is still unknown. Votto out of the lineup should benefit Padres starter Colin Rea who is coming off one of his better outings of the season; a 6.1 inning performance where he allowed two runs (one earned) in a no-decision against the Nationals.Each of these young starters project to have success against the opposing lineup, however anytime the Reds bullpen is involved run suppression is in jeopardy. I recommend a wager on the 1st 5 innings under 5.
Nelly
Miami Marlins + over Chicago Cubs
There has been some recent erosion in the numbers for Kyle Hendricks who still owns a great 2.94 ERA and a nearly 4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Cubs have lost four of his last seven starts and for the first time all season Chicago has lost four consecutive games. While the run differential for the Cubs is still remarkable, leading baseball by a mile at +162, the division lead is now just nine games over the Cardinals and the Rangers are actually just a game behind the Cubs for baseball's best record. Hendricks featured a lot of groundball outs in the first two months of the season and there has been a sharp decline in those percentages over his last three starts. His strikeout numbers have been good in that run but he has allowed seven runs in his last three starts, including giving up three home runs. Incredibly the Cubs are only 6-7 behind Hendricks and 41-17 behind the other starters for the team and the home/road splits severely contrast for the right-hander with Hendricks 1-5 on the road with a 4.36 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. The recent slide has mostly been due to the offense however as Chicago is batting just .229 in the last 10 games while scoring 3.8 runs per game, big drops from the season production. Chicago has been held to four or fewer runs in eight of the last 10 games and they face a hot pitcher in Tom Koehler. With rather average career numbers Koehler may be on track for a career year as he has been outstanding since early May. After allowing eight runs on May 1 Koehler owns a 2.58 ERA in nine starts since, posting seven quality starts in that run and allowing only one home run in over 55 innings of work. His season numbers are much stronger in Miami and this is a Marlins team that has quietly charged right into the playoff race including a recent 7-3 run the past 10 games. Miami's bullpen owns a dominant 1.67 ERA in the past 10 games while the late innings have been a recent sore spot for the Cubs and Miami is batting .311 with 5.6 runs per game in that span vs. right-handed pitching. The host has won five of the last six in this series and despite his team playing in its worst stretch of the season Hendricks is a similarly priced road favorite today against a 39-34 Marlins team as he was at home vs. a 34-39 Pirates team in his last start.
Greg Shaker
St Louis -115
So the Seattle Starter gets another shot at the Big Leagues tonight after pitching pretty good at AAA Buffalo. His previous stints up HERE featured 71 starts with 5 different teams and less than good results. He did get a ROUSING Endorsement from GM Jerry Dipoto who stated "He (LeBlanc) might not pitch well, but he won't go out there and panic." I see. Martinez last 4 games = 1.23 ERA. He's also 4-1 traveling with a 1.78 ERA + batters are hitting .192 in the same scenario. Cards just took 3 from the Cubs on the road, a day off and feeling pretty good about themselves. The Mariners on a 6 games losing streak. Better form for the Good Guys for sure. Being Patient has payed off AGAIN for us as this number opened STL -135. It's time to play even though LeBlanc is NOT Likely to PANIC.
Bruce Marshall
Twins / Yankees Over 8
After the Twins could not contain a Phillies offense that was slumping before scoring 22 runs in three games at midweek, we wonder how the weakened Minnesota staff will slow the Yankees tonight. After recording a 5.79 ERA in five appearances before being sent to AAA in early May, Tommy Milone has been recalled for the umpteenth time to take the place of struggling Pat Dean in the rotation. The Twins bats have shown some life lately, however, and might be able to do enough business of their own vs. Yankee starter Masahiro Tanaka to help push this one "over" tonight.
ASA
Montreal / Winnipeg Under 49
First off let’s start with this: The league average for points scored and allowed per game last season was 24.6PPG and 24.5PPG for a combined average of 49.1PPG. Tonight we have two of the CFL’s worst offensive teams from a season ago as Montreal averaged 21.5PPG which was 2nd to last in the league while Winnipeg was dead last at 19.6PPG. These two clubs were the bottom two teams in passing yards per game and passing TD’s per game. While the Blue Bombers were slightly below average in rushing yards per game the Alouettes were the 2nd best rushing team in the league and more running plays means less plays, less clock stoppage and less points. Last year when these two teams met (twice) they totaled 49 and 48 points with one game going over the number and one under. The under has some historical support as combined the Alouettes and Blue Bombers have stayed below the total in 23 of their last 34 games overall. Not to mention the Alouettes are on a 16-6 under streak in their last 22 road games while the Bombers are on a 7-1 under run at home their last eight. There is some potential rain in the forecast for this game tonight and we expect to see two struggling offenses and two ‘OK’ defenses slug it out in a low scoring game.
GoodFella
Baltimore -130
Strong value for me here on these Orioles at HOME at this price. I do see a definite SP edge here with Gallardo. These O's have had great success vs Rays SP Matt Moore. A combined (.296 AVG) and a (.870 OPS) vs him. The Rays are also floundering right now, losers of 7 straight ball games. These Orioles are a dominant (27-13) at HOME and we also have the edge with the bullpens tonight. Baltimore SP Gallardo has had good success vs these Rays. A combined (.192 AVG) and just a (.556 OPS) vs Gallardo. The bottom line for me here, is that I have this game lined 15 cents higher, so great value on the Orioles at this price and in this spot on Friday Night.