Brad Wilton
Friday night comp play is the Dodgers to keep the Pirates slumping.
Pittsburgh lost for the 13th time in their last 15 games yesterday, and now they welcome the sizzling Dodgers who have won 6 straight and 8 of their last 9 games overall.
A couple of raw hurlers will take the mound tonight at PNC Park, as the Bucs look to right their ship behind Jameson Taillon who will be making just his 4th major league start. He enters at 1-1 with a 3.50 ERA.
The Dodgers will call up Nick Tepesch who has not started in the bigs since 2014 when he was a member of the Rangers. Tepesch will replace Mike Bolsinger, and he is certainly catching the Pirates at the right time, as Pittbsurgh hasn't seen a swoon like this is years.
L.A. just playing too well right now, and Pittsburgh is simply not playing well.
Back the Dodgers.
2* L.A. DODGERS
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie will be the same as your Thursday freebie, and that is to play the Mets and the Braves to once again hold Under the total.
Last night's Under made it 4 straight and 7 of 8 overall played between these East Division rivals having held Under the total.
Sure, Steven Matz and Aaron Blair have both been struggling, but when these 2 matched pitches on the 18th of this month, the result was a 4-3 Under.
Both are capable of reprising that result, so with a dominance of Unders between the teams, have to play the percentages, and look for another Mets-Braves meeting to hold Under the total.
Make it 5 straight between the teams Under after this Friday night at the Ted.
3* N.Y. METS-ATLANTA UNDER
Chris Jordan
Let's get to my complimentary winner, as I like the Milwaukee Brewers against the Washington Nationals tonight. Let's face it, as long as the two best teams in the National League - and quite possibly Major League Baseball - are struggling, it's a good time to look at pure value with underdogs.
And in a game I would never touch as a premium play - you never lay anything with a road favorite that is losing profusely - I'm going to take a shot with the pup in this one.
Now, let me just say I am not going to list pitchers in this one, but the fact Milwaukee turns to its hottest starter - rookie right-hander Zach Davies - for the series opener, makes this even more intriguing. Davies' arsenal is special, and when facing an aggressive lineup like this, you have to have control and confidence in pulling the trigger with your out pitches.
Davies has the tools, and has been lights-out most recently, going 5-0 with a 2.40 ERA. Davies has been electric in June, allowing just three earned runs in 28 innings of work over four starts.
I'm sure the plane ride away from the West Coast and a day off following a walk-off single and a three-base, two-run error for Yasiel Puig has been beneficial for the National League East leaders, but they're still mired in a five-game skid, and most likely want to be at home.
Instead, the Nationals have to open their weekend set against a feisty team that went 2-8 on its recent West Coast road swing and is looking to take advantage of homefield and spark a little something against the struggling Nats.
For added motivation, there is some revenge factor to consider, as the Nationals have won four of the last five meetings with the Brewers, six of the last 10 at Miller Park and four straight season series.
I'm playing the underdog Brewers, as it's the smart play in this game.
4* BREWERS
Scott Delaney
My free winner for Friday night is on the Baltimore Orioles, laying a cheap price to American League East-rival Tampa Bay, at Camden Yards.
The O's are clinging to their lead in the division, sitting 1.5 ahead of the Boston Red Sox and 2.5 ahead of the Toronto Blue Jays. And what makes this series tough altogether for the Rays is Baltimore is a stellar 27-13 at home this season. The Orioles are also one of the best home hitting teams.
Tampa Bay heads into this series on a seven-game skid, which followed a three-game win streak. The Rays have seen their offense decline, as they're averaging a mere 2.1 runs during their losing streak. And in four of the seven losses during the skid, Tampa Bay has scored 0 or 1 run in the game.
On the flipside, the Rays' pitching isn't doing any better, as it's allowed 41 runs during the losing slide - almost six runs per game.
Take Baltimore tonight, as this is a cheap price to pay.
2* ORIOLES
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 71-66 run with free picks: Athletics (+115) at ANGELS
The STORYLINE in this game today - Quite an opening game in this series, as Tim Lincecum has a rough one, and an umpires takes a bat to the noggin. Lincecum put the Angels in a hole with a four-run, six-hit second inning, and the Angels are in an even deeper hole as they continue to slump. Oakland is in a good spot here, and I want you listing pitchers, as there is revenge to be had in this one.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Eric Surkamp has struggled mightily this season, I admit it. But I think the crafty southpaw made positive strides Sunday against these same Angels, allowing just two runs and striking out five in six innings. He took the loss in a close one, and it was to Angels veteran Jered Weaver, tonight's starter in Anaheim. Surkamp will be out for revenge, as will be the A's.
BOTTOM LINE is - All that being said, let's talk about the Halos' demise. A 5-4 loss to the Athletics last night dropped the Angels 16 games behind Texas in the American League West, their largest June deficit since 2001, when they fell 20 games behind a Seattle team that won 116 games. Nothing is going right, even with the supposed best player in baseball.
1* TWINS
RAY MONOHAN
Washington Nationals -1.5
The Nationals and Brewers begin a 3 game set and Washington minus the RL is a good move here. Max Scherzer goes for the Nats, and he is in the zone right now. Scherzer is 3-0 in 4 starts in June, with his lone ND coming as a 10 strike out, 1 run decision. He's allowed just 4 runs in 28.0 innings while striking out 38. The Nationals ace was signed for reasons like this.
Washington has gone on a bit of a cold streak and find themselves behind New York in the NL East. His job has been to play stopper and this is a prime spot for him to step up.
Some trends to consider. Nationals are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series. Nationals are 11-4 in their last 15 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Washington has the clear edge here as Scherzer is absolutely dominant. Look for him to put an end to the losing streak, as Washington wins convincingly.
MICHAEL ALEXANDER
Dodgers vs. Pirates
Play: Dodgers +118
The Los Angeles Dodgers are heating up with the summer now upon us while the Pittsburgh Pirates have cooled down considerably with losses in 13 of their last 15 contests. The red-hot Dodgers will vie for their seventh consecutive victory tonight when they take on Pittsburgh. Los Angeles has opted to give rookie right-hander Kenta Maeda an extra day of rest and plans to recall Tepesch from Triple-A Oklahoma City to make Friday's spot start. The 27-year-old Tepesch exercised his opt-out clause with the Texas Rangers earlier this month and signed with the Dodgers, who promptly shuffled to him to their minor league affiliate where he has posted a 3-0 mark with a 2.00 ERA. Tepesch dominated in his last outing by allowing just one run on three hits in eight innings, but will make his first start in the majors since the 2014 season.
SPORTS WAGERS
CINCINNATI -1½ +165 over San Diego
Colin Rea’s impressive control gains and HR-prevention fueled this sinkerballers 1.08 ERA in 75 IP at AA last year before he was called up. He was just modestly effective as he advanced to AAA and SD before a year-ending forearm strain. Rea’s average secondary stuff says his command and groundball rates are crucial to any success he might have. In 72 frames this year, Rea has a BB/K split of 29/54. He has a low 6% swing and miss rate. His groundball rate is decent at 46% but his line-drive rate of 26% is not. Rea comes in with a 5.02 ERA and 4.66 xERA and that’s after pitching a high majority of his games at pitchers’ parks. He will have no such luxury here. In his 13 starts this season, Rea has pitched at home in Petco, an extreme pitchers park, 10 times. One of Rea’s three road games came at Coors in which he lasted three innings and saw five of 11 baserunners score. The other road games were in Philly against a weak offense and at Wrigley with the wind blowing in. He lasted five innings at Wrigley after allowing four runs.
A raw-tools bet by the Royals in the second round of 2013 that looks to be paying off, Cody Reed broke out in a huge way across two levels last year and saw himself packaged alongside Brandon Finnegan and John Lamb for Johnny Cueto. At 6’5” and 220 pounds, Reed has an ideal pitching frame and features two pitches that get plus-plus grades in his mid-90s fastball and mid-to-high-80s slider. The fastball can touch 97 and shows solid late life while coming in with good deception because of a low, three-quarters arm slot. The slider is a true out-pitch for him, which similarly showcases biting, sweeping tilt. Reed also mixes in a low-80s curveball that looks to be an average offering at prime. Reed’s command and control of his arsenal keeps getting better. In his major-league debut last week at Minute Maid Park against the Astros, Reed went seven full and allowed four runs but all four runs were the result of two, two-run shots. He struck out nine batters. Playing rookies are risky but this one is going to be relevant at some point in his career and it could come swiftly because he has that much talent. There is also a nice reward in playing rookies before their stock goes up. Colin Rea only wishes he had this kids’ talent.
Tampa Bay (5 inns) +115
Matt Moore has a 4.90 ERA after 82 innings this year. However, he’s also shown flashes of brilliance, as he continues to recover from TJS. Now a little better than two years removed from said operation, Moore may be just about ready to fulfill his top-prospect pedigree. Over his last two starts, Moore has allowed just two runs on eight hits and struck out 15 in 13 innings. He now has 29 K’s over his last 32 innings and 78 on the year in 83 frames. A high 32% hit rate has done a fair amount of damage to Moore’s actual ERA but there is no question as to who the better starter is here. We are betting that Moore is better than Yovani Gallardo in the first five frames.
It’s not rocket science. The equation here is as simple as can be. Gallardo is either going to get lucky or he’s not. His pitches will get hit and they’ll get hit hard and it’s all a matter of where those hard hit balls land. Gallardo’s last start against Toronto landed on the side of luck, as he allowed just two runs in five innings before he was mercilessly yanked. On a normal day, Gallardo would have lasted about three innings after giving up about eight runs. In that start against Toronto, Gallardo walked four batters and his hard hit ball percentage was 74%. League average per game is 28%. He had traffic every inning. In 23 innings this year, Gallardo has 11 walks, 14 K’s, a 6% swing and miss rate, a 38%/41% groundball/fly-ball split, a 1.70 WHIP and a xERA of 6.77. Some idiot in the Orioles organization figured paying this stiff 8.7M per year was a sound decision. We told you last year that Gallardo was no good anymore. Because he’s being paid so much, he’ll take the ball every five days and that is going to provide us with many more outstanding opportunities. The strategy therefore is as simple as the equation. Fade Gallardo.
Power Sports
Washington vs. Milwaukee
Pick: Washington
Yes, I realize that the Nationals have dropped five in a row. But having had Thursday off to regroup from a sweep suffered at the hands of the Dodgers, I really like them tonight in Milwaukee as Max Scherzer will be taking the baseball. Over his L3 starts, Scherzer has a 0.90 ERA, 0.60 WHIP and 27-1 KW ratio.
In his last two starts, Scherzer has allowed all of two runs, both coming on solo home runs. It was a brutal beat for Scherzer backers his last time out as the team blew a late lead against San Diego. The last time he took the mound here at Miller Park, things went quite well. He took a no-hitter into the seventh inning (was perfect through six) and finished w/ 16 K's. That was last year, but 2016 has seen Scherzer continue to strike the opposition out at a very high rate. In his just his last eight starts, he's got 82 K's. This is not good news for a Brewers lineup that has struck out 83 times itself in the L8 games overall.
The Brew Crew's own starter for Friday has accounted quite well for himself lately, that being Zach Davies, who has a 1.35 ERA and 0.750 WHIP his L3 turns. But, he's got less of a track record compared to Scherzer and an inferior ballclub backing him up. Davies also started the season 0-3 w/ an 8.78 ERA. As far as this price range goes, the Nats are 6-1 this year as ML road faves of -150 to -175 (21-7 L3 yrs) while the Brewers are 1-5 as home dogs (4-15 L3 yrs).
Harry Bondi
CINCINNATI -130 over San Diego
Cashed another Free winner last night with San Diego over Cincinnati but will back the Reds and their fine young pitcher Cody Reed over the Padres tonight. Last Friday the much heralded left hander beat Houston in his major league debut and we think he'll pitch well again tonight in front of a sellout crowd there to see Pete Rose inducted into the Reds Hall of Fame. San Diego sends Colin Rea to the hill and he has gotten rocked lately going 2-6 with a 7.18 ERA in his last 8 starts. Padres also have struggled on the road losing 11 of their last 15 road affairs.
Bob Balfe
Royals -120
The Astros have been on a nice run, but they will face a hot hitting team today and they are a totally different team when on the road. Houston has pockets of impressive baseball for being so low down on the payroll compared to other teams, but Kansas City hits left handed pitching well and are great at home.