Free Picks for Friday, June 2nd, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
YANKEES AT BLUE JAYS
PLAY: YANKEES -125
Francisco Liriano returns from his latest DL stint to make tonight’s start for Toronto as the Blue Jays host the Yankees. I’m basically suggesting that Liriano is going to have to prove to me he can handle a potent big league lineup. The veteran southpaw can still be a handful when he has good control, but that’s not something that can be consistently counted on.
Michael Pineda continues to pitch pretty well for the Yanks. Pineda is always going to be prone to the long ball. But that liability isn’t as damaging for Pineda as much as some other pitchers thanks to his consistent reliable control. Walks have not been a problem at all for Pineda, and in fact the three issued in his more recent start were his high water mark for the season to date.
The Blue Jays are a stronger looking team now that Donaldson and Tulowitzki have come off the DL. But I have little confidence in Liriano and have to think the Toronto pen will be pretty busy tonight. The Yankees will be an ultra-public side tonight, but I also happen to believe there’s a good chance they’re the right side as well.
Scott Spreitzer
Giants vs. Phillies
Play: Giants +109
Ty Blach appears to be the real deal as he's thrown four quality starts in a row and the Giants have won the last three. Blach has allowed only seven runs his last 28 2/3 innings while issuing just six walks. Jerad Eickhoff is 0-3 with a 6.08 ERA his last five starts and he's 0-5 and 4.74 for the season. The Phillies have lost eight of his 10 starts and opponents have a .279 batting average against him. Philadelphia has lost four straight and seven of its last nine home games and 40 of its last 58 overall dating to last season. The Phillies have scored more than two runs just twice their last 11 games and were outscored 21-5 in a three-game series at Miami.
Marc Lawrence
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins
Play: Marlins -108
Edges - Marlins: Urena 2.70 ERA at home as opposed to 4.91 ERA away this season… Diamondbacks: Corbin 0-4 with 9.45 ERA and 2.00 WHIP away team starts as opposed to 6-1 with 3.27 ERA and 2.36 WHIP home this season… With Corbin 0-3 his last three team starts against the Marlins, we recommend a 1* play on Miami.
Dustin Hawkins
Washington at Oakland
Play: Washington -138
Nationals pitcher Stephon Strasburg is 21-3 against the money line in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Oakland is 2-13 against the money line in home games when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.Dusty Baker is 20-6 against the money line in road games after allowing 1 run or less as the manager of Washington.
TJ Masterline
Colorado vs. San Diego
Play: Colorado -114
Although the Padres are playing their best baseball in quite a long time, the Rockies continue to lead the division and are 19-9 on the road this season, whereas the Padres are under .500 at their own park. The pitching matchup edge goes to the Rockies as well in this one, with Marquezs being a solid performer of late, with a 2.16 ERA over his last 3 games while Richard has an ERA of 4.29 over his last 3 starts. Here are some other stats that back up our play: Rockies are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series. Rockies are 14-3 in their last 17 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Rockies are 8-3 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Rockies are 10-4 in their last 14 road games. Rockies are 5-2 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Rockies are 12-5 in their last 17 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Rockies are 14-6 in their last 20 vs. National League West. Rockies are 9-4 in their last 13 Friday games. Rockies are 4-0 in Marquezs last 4 starts. Rockies are 4-0 in Marquezs last 4 starts on grass. Padres are 5-11 in their last 16 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Padres are 2-5 in their last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Padres are 3-10 in their last 13 games following an off day. Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 Friday games. Padres are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. National League West. Padres are 8-21 in Richards last 29 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Padres are 1-4 in Richards last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Padres are 1-4 in Richards last 5 starts. Padres are 1-4 in Richards last 5 starts on grass. Padres are 1-5 in Richards last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Padres are 1-5 in Richards last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Padres are 0-5 in Richards last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Padres are 0-4 in Richards last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
Rob Vinciletti
Pittsburgh vs. New York
Play: New York -109
The Mets Have Harvey going and he pitched well in Pittsburgh on Sunday. in his last 2 starts vs the Pirates he has allowed just 2 runs in 12 innings. Cole for the pirates has lost 7 of his last 8 road starts and has a 4.67 Road Era. The Pirates are 1-7 on the road of the total is 8 to 8.5 and they are 0-4 as a road dog off a home loss and 1-6 in game 1 of a series. the Mets are 4-1 on Fridays and 4-0 of late in game 1 of a series. Even more impressive is their 7-0 record as a home favorite off a home loss where they had 4 or less hits. And now to tie in a database system. Since 2004 Non division home teams that are off a home loss and scored 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits are 5-0 vs an opponent off a home loss like the Pirates that scored 5 or more runs and had 1 or no errors in that loss. This rare system and the powerful angles above have us on the Mets tonight.
Power Sports
Tampa Bay vs. Seattle
Pick: Tampa Bay -116
For the second straight season, I can make a pretty clear cut case that the Rays are better than their WL record indicates. In 2016, they were doomed by a league-worst record in one-run games. This season, they haven't been much better in that department (just 4-9), but at least they're two games above .500 overall. There are also signs of better luck being on the horizon. Such as Wednesday's come from behind effort at Texas. (I had 'em!). That made it six wins in the last eight games and w/ a YTD run differential of +26, I view this as a legit playoff contender moving forward.
Meanwhile, Seattle is not a team I'd be buying stock in right now. Granted, they did just take three of four from Colorado. But they're at a disadvantage tonight having played Thursday while the Rays were off. Christian Bergmann is the starter here and I certainly don't believe him to be capable of repeating his last performance, that being seven shutout innings at Boston. Consider that in his start previous to that one, he allowed 10 runs in four innings and that came in a NL park (Washington). Bergmann is a low strikeout pitcher, which is never a good sign. In three of four starts this year, he's registered 2 K's or fewer. That's bad.
Jake Odorizzi will get the baseball for TB. While the team didn't win either of his last two starts, both were quality outings where the offense failed to show up. In seven of his last eight turns, Odorizzi has allowed 2 ER or fewer, which is really impressive. The Rays' offense has been a lot better of late (6.0 rpg over the last 7 days), so support should not be an issue here, especially against Bergmann. Note that in the month of May, the Rays offense led all of MLB in home runs w/ 52! Odorizzi has a solid 2.35 ERA in four career starts vs. the M's.
Robert Ferringo
San Francisco at Philadelphia
Play: Under 9
I kind of like what I've seen from young Jerad Eickhoff lately. He has struck out 16 to just three walks in his last three starts against three decent lineups. I think that he will have a solid outing here against a Giants team that is in a letdown spot after an emotional series with Washington. They won't be up for this game at all. Ty Blach will likely take the ball, and he has rung up four straight quality starts, going at least seven innings in each one and posting just a 2.50 ERA. And those games have come against some really good lineups like the Dodgers and Cubs. Philadelphia is hitting just .230 against lefties this year and they really just aren't hitting, period. This is one of the worst lineups in the league. And it is not as if the Giants are any better. The Giants are last in the league in runs per game, OPS and home runs, and they are second-worst in the league in batting average. I think the relative obscurity of the two young starters will help keep this total up. But I see a game that neither team really wants to play and a game that should end up somewhere around 4-2.
Strike Point Sports
Cleveland at Kansas City
Play: Kansas City
Kansas City and Cleveland have split the six games they have played so far with each team winning a series 2-1 on the road. The Royals have been struggling this season in large part to them not taking care of their business at home like they have done in recent years, as they are just 12-12 at Kaufmann Stadium so far this season. Someone who hasn't had any problems there this season is Jason Vargas, who is 3-1 with a 2.05 ERA in 5 starts. He has kept the Indians off the board in two starts this season as he has allowed just 2 earned runs over 11.2 innings. Josh Tomlin will be on the bump for the Indians and he is 1-2 with a 5.25 ERA on the road this year and he has allowed at least 4 runs in two out of his last three starts. I think Kansas City picks up the win in game 1 of this series.
Wunderdog
Cleveland @ Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City +101
Kansas City beat the Indians 5-2 on Saturday when tonight's pitcher, Jason Vargas, was the winning pitcher allowing two runs in 5 2/3 innings. Vargas is 6-3 with a 2.39 ERA, including 3-1 and 2.05 at home. He's already faced Cleveland twice this season and given up just two runs in 11 2/3 innings. The Royals are 14-6 in Vargas' last 20 starts and 10-2 his last 12 home starts dating to last season. The Royals lost 6-5 to the Tigers on Wednesday, but they are 10-4 when following a loss this season and they have won four of their last five home contests versus right-handed starters. Josh Tomilin is 3-6 with a 5.79 ERA and Cleveland has lost three of his last four starts. Tomlin is 1-5 with a 6.61 ERA in night games this year and he doesn't often put two good performances together as the Indians are 3-8 with Tomlin following a quality start in his last appearance.
Scott Rickenbach
Diamondbacks at Marlins
Play: Marlins -110
The Marlins Jose Urena continues to prove to be tough to hit. He has allowed only 20 hits in his 5 starts this season and that has spanned nearly 28 innings of work. He'll be opposed by the Diamondbacks Patrick Corbin and the Arizona southpaw has proven to be very hittable. Corbin has a 7.87 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts overall. Also, in his 4 road starts this season he is 0-4 with a 9.45 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP. The Marlins lost a tight one yesterday but had previously won 4 straight games and they have a pitching edge here and the Dbacks are only averaging 3.6 runs per game on the road this season. Despite the disparity in records between these teams this season, the Marlins are favored with good reason and this is the perfect spot to be a contrarian.
Jeff Benton
Friday's comp play release is the Giants over the Phillies.
Not sure how the Phillies could even be a slight favorite over anyone right now, as the Phils are mired in a 4 game slide, and have lost 25 of their last 31 games overall!
True, the Giants are not much better, as Bruce Bochy's clubs just got swept at home by Washington, and has lost 7 of their last 9, but they have won 15 of the past 21 in the series, and they do have a youngster in Ty Blach that has given them a spark on the mound.
Blach is 3-0 with a 2.49 ERA his last 3 starts, while his counterpart Jerad Eickhoff has yet to break his 2017 maiden at 0-5 with a 4.74 ERA. The Phillies have also lost 8 of his 10 season starts this year.
Give me the Giants in this battle of cellar-dwellers on Friday.
2* SAN FRANCISCO
Brad Wilton
Friday freebie is Under the total in the Pirates and the Mets series opener.
Nice pitching matchup on paper as Gerrit Cole and Matt Harvey take to the hill.
Looking at recent pitching splits, both Cole and Harvey have seen their ERA's rise a little higher than they are used to, and both teams have also been playing their recent games a little higher than would be expected for me to call an Under, but consider this....9 of Cole's 11 season starts have landed Under the total, although his last start against the Mets saw him allow 4 runs and 10 hits in just 5 innings worked!
Harvey's last start was 6 innings of 1 run ball against Pittsburgh, so look for him to reprise that effort with another quality start tonight, and look for Cole ro redeem himself for his last start against New York.
I see the pitchers controlling the action tonight.
Pirates-Mets Under.
2* PITTSBURGH-N.Y. METS UNDER
Chris Jordan
We have an interesting weekend set in San Diego, as the National League West-leading Colorado Rockies are in town to visit the last-place Padres.
And my free pick for tonight is on the Padres, who have won four straight games - the first time they've strung together four in a row since 2015 - not to mention seven of their last 10.
The Padres and Rockies have split their first six games of the season, so there should be enough confidence on San Diego's part, to pull off a win in the series-opener.
I'm taking a shot with this comp winner, as the Pads get it done over Colorado.
2* PADRES