Eric Schroeder
The last time the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees got together, things were awfully different.
It was May 1, and while the Jays were looking to reverse their fortune after going 8-17 in April, the Yankees were 15-8, and on their way to a 21-9 start by May 8.
Now, though the Yankees remain atop the American League East, they've lost seven of their last 14 games and are mired in a 10-11 skid since May 8. But they did win yesterday's series-opener, turning back a Toronto team that went 18-10 in May.
Tonight I'm on the Yankees, and I want you listing Michael Pineda over Francisco Liriano.
Pineda steps to the hill after earning his sixth win of the year, tying his 2016 total and marking his ninth straight start allowing three runs or less. He is facing a potent lineup, but I think he will be able to neutralize the Jays long enough to secure the win.
Liriano, however, returns from the disabled list to make this start, as he's been out since May 10 with left shoulder inflammation. He gets the ball after just one rehab appearance for Triple-A Buffalo, where he allowed three runs over 4.1 innings.
Take the Yankees and list both.
1* YANKEES
Jack Brayman
My free winner for Friday night takes us to the Lone Star State, where I'm playing the Texas Rangers over the Houston Astros. And in this game I want you listing Yu Darvish over Dallas Keuchel.
Let's start with Keuchel, who may lead the bigs in wins and ranks second in ERA and opponent's batting average, but also seems to have a problem against this team.
The bearded southpaw is a disappointing 5-7 with a 4.24 ERA in his career against Texas - including 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA in four starts last year.
He could run into trouble in this marquee matchup, as the streaking Astros have a 12-game lead over the two-time defending American League West champion Rangers.
And since the Astros took three of four from Texas in Houston to start the month of May, revenge is on the brain, too. Keuchel didn't face Texas in the four-game series earlier this season, so the Rangers may go off tonight.
I'd rather side with the home pitcher, as Darvish has labored for eight quality starts in 11 outings, and rolls in with a 4-4 mark and 3.51 ERA in 12 career starts against the Astros. He is in triple-revenge against Houston, with a 0-3 mark in his last seven starts against the Astros.
Tonight you're going to see Darvish hit the corners with his pitches, just as he's done with 11.3 percent of his pitches this season, the second highest rate among starting pitchers.
Play the home underdog and list both.
4* RANGERS
MIKE LUNDIN
Nationals vs. A's
Play: Under 7½
The Oakland Athletics host the Washington Nationals for the opener of a three-game series Friday night. I think runs will come at a premium and I'm recommending a play on under the total.
Stephen Strasburg (6-1, 2.94 ERA) takes the ball for Washington. He's coming off a 15-strikeout effort when he held the Padres scoreless through seven innings of three-hit ball. Strasburg will face Oakland for the first time.
The A's turn to Andrew Triggs (5-4, 2.64 ERA). The right-hander has been tagged with a total of 12 runs through 11 1/3 innings in his last two starts, but "only" six earned. We can note that Washington has scored exactly three runs in four of its last five games, so it's not like the Nats are swinging hot bats at the moment.
Under is 6-1-1 in Nationals last eight overall and 7-2-1 in Strasburg's last 10 starts overall. Under is 6-2 in Athletics last eight overall and 5-2 in Triggs' last seven starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game.
BRANDON LEE
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles +120
Baltimore is getting zero respect here at home against division rival Boston. The Orioles won the series opener yesterday 7-5 as a dog and are now 18-8 record at home this season, which includes a 3-1 record at home against these Red Sox. Boston is sending out reigning Cy Young winner Rick Porcello, but he's 3-6 with a 4.21 ERA in 11 starts and has a 4.74 ERA in his last 3 outings. Not to mention he's allowed a ridiculous 31 hits over his last 3 starts. Baltimore will send out Alec Asher, who has been hit or miss in 3 starts this season, but he was sharp in a start at Boston back on 5/2, allowing just 3 runs over 6 innings. This will also be Asher's first start at home, where I would expect he would have a little more success.
JOHN MARTIN
Rockies vs. Padres
Play: Rockies -113
The San Diego Padres are in line for a letdown here Friday after sweeping the defending champion Cubs in their last series. And the Rockies have the clear edge on the mound tonight with German Marquez, who is 4-2 with a 3.76 ERA in seven starts, and 2-0 with a 1.06 ERA in three road starts. Clayton Richard is 3-6 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 11 starts for the Padres, and 2-3 with a 4.68 ERA in five home starts. Richard is 3-4 with a 4.81 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 14 starts against Colorado.
STEVE JANUS
Rays vs. Mariners
Play: Rays -117
Play Against - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SEATTLE) - with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (AL), red hot hitting team - batting .340 or better over their last 3 games. This system is 34-7 (83%) against the money line since 1997.
JACK JONES
Texas Rangers +114
The Texas Rangers are showing great value as home underdogs to the Houston Astros, who are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers now that they have the best record in baseball and should be good fade material going forward.
You'll almost never get the opportunity to back ace Yu Darvish as a home underdog. Darvish is 5-3 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.163 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 3-1 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.068 WHIP in six home starts.
Dallas Keuchel is back to Cy Young form in the early going, but he won't be able to keep up this pace. And Keuchel is 2-4 with a 6.08 ERA in his last six starts against Texas, giving up a whopping 27 earned runs in 40 innings of work.
The Rangers are 9-2 in their last 11 home games. Texas is 4-0 in Darvish's last four home starts. Texas is 6-1 in Darvish's last seven starts overall. The Astros are 13-40 in their last 53 meetings in Texas.
CHASE DIAMOND
Indians vs. Royals
Play: Royals +102
This game has the 28-24 Indians at the 22-30 Royals. Jason Vargas has gotten zero respect this guy has pitched well all season and is 6-3 with a 2.39 ERA and has become a stopper for the Royals. Royals were off yesterday while the Indians had to play giving us the better pitcher at home with the rested team. Royals face Josh Tomlin who has been pretty brutal 3-6 with a 5.79 ERA. Choice is simple back the Royals.
DAVE PRICE
Chicago White Sox +166
The Chicago White Sox are heavy dogs today when they really shouldn't be. I like this price with them when you consider how good starter Derek Holland has been. Holland is 4-4 with a 2.97 ERA in 10 starts this year. He has gone 1-1 with a 3.56 ERA in 8 lifetime starts vs. Detroit, and his teams are actually 7-1 in those 8 starts. Michael Fulmer has never beaten the White Sox, going 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA in 4 lifetime starts against them.
DOC'S SPORTS
Texas Rangers +114
Valuable Houston Astros Betting Trends
The Houston Astros are 27-23-4 against the over/under
The Houston Astros are 33-21-0 against the run line
Important Texas Rangers Betting Trends
The Texas Rangers are 26-28-0 against the over/under
The Texas Rangers are 30-24-0 against the run line
Key Houston Astros Injuries
05/30/17 P Joe Musgrove Shoulder 10-day DL (5/27)
05/28/17 P Charlie Morton Back 10-day DL (05/25)
04/20/17 P Jandel Gustave Forearm 10-day DL (04/19)
03/31/17 P Collin McHugh Elbow 10-day DL (03/30)
Key Texas Rangers Injuries
05/30/17 P Dario Alvarez Elbow 10-day DL (5/26)
05/28/17 P Tyson Ross Throat 60-day DL (3/30)
05/26/17 P A.J. Griffin Ribs 10-day DL (5/27)
05/15/17 CF Carlos Gomez Hamstring 10-day DL (5/15)
05/09/17 P Jose Leclerc Finger 10-day DL (5/8 )
05/03/17 P Cole Hamels Oblique 10-day DL (4/30)
04/03/17 SS Hanser Alberto Shoulder 60-day DL (3/30)
04/01/17 P Chi Chi Gonzalez Elbow 60-day DL (4/02)
04/01/17 P Tanner Schepper Abdominal 10-day DL (3/30)
03/31/17 C Brett Nicholas Knee 10-day DL (3/30)
03/31/17 P Jake Diekman Intestinal 60-day DL (2/14)
Useful Pitching Statistics
The Astros have a 38-16 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel has a 8-0 record with an earned run average of 1.81 and a WHIP of 0.88. He has 62 strikeouts over his 69.2 innings pitched and he's given up 45 hits. He allows 5.8 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 3.11. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.44 and they have given up 140 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .211 against the bullpen and they've struck out 224 hitters and walked 67 batters. As a team, Houston allows 7.7 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.9 batters per nine innings. They are 2nd in the league in team earned run average at 3.49. The Astros pitchers collectively have given up 419 base hits and 190 earned runs. They have allowed 67 home runs this season, ranking them 11th in the league. Houston as a pitching staff has walked 166 batters and struck out 537. They have walked 3.1 men per 9 innings while striking out 9.9 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.20 and their FIP as a unit is 3.75.
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Hitting Statistics
As a team Houston is hitting .277, good for 1st in the league. The Astros hold a .466 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .345, which is good for 2nd in baseball. They rank 2nd in MLB with 9.5 hits per game. Jose Altuve is hitting .319 with an on-base percentage of .386. He has 65 hits this season in 204 at bats with 27 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .505 and an OPS+ of 149. Carlos Correa is hitting .316 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .390. He has totaled 59 hits and he has driven in 34 men in 187 at bats. His OPS+ is 155 while his slugging percentage is at .524. The Astros have 512 hits, including 94 doubles and 82 home runs. Houston has walked 176 times so far this season and they have struck out 375 times as a unit. They have left 361 men on base and have a team OPS of .811. They score 5.41 runs per contest and have scored a total of 292 runs this year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
Texas has a 26-28 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 2.97, Yu Darvish has a 5-3 record and a 1.16 WHIP. He has 72 strikeouts over the 69.2 innings he's pitched. He's also given up 51 hits. He allows 6.6 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 4.03. The bullpen has an earned run average of 5.00 and they have given up 182 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .271 against the Rangers bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 146 batters and walked 69 opposing hitters. As a team, Texas allows 8.9 hits per nine innings while striking out 6.9 batters per nine innings. They are 18th in the league in team earned run average at 4.23. The Rangers pitchers as a team have surrendered 473 base knocks and 225 earned runs this season. They have given up 73 home runs this year, which ranks 6th in Major League Baseball. Texas as a staff has walked 188 hitters and struck out 366 batters. They give up a walk 3.5 times per 9 innings while they strike out 6.9 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.38 while their FIP as a staff is 4.77.
Hitting Statistics
As a team, they are batting .242, good for 21st in the league. The Rangers hold a .416 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .314, which is good for 22nd in baseball. They rank 24th in MLB with 8.1 hits per contest. Elvis Andrus comes into this matchup batting .297 with an OBP of .339. He has 63 hits this year along with 29 RBI in 212 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .472 with an OPS+ of 113. Nomar Mazara is hitting .284 this season and he has an OBP of .351. He has collected 54 hits in 190 at bats while driving in 35 runs. He has an OPS+ of 113 and a slugging percentage of .458. The Rangers as a unit have 435 base hits, including 85 doubles and 72 homers. Texas has walked 174 times this year and they have struck out on 467 occasions. They have had 317 men left on base and have an OPS of .731. They have scored 4.8 runs per game and totaled 259 runs this season.
JIMMY BOYD
Indians vs. Royals
Play: Indians -107
I really like the value here with Cleveland as a short road favorite against the Royals in Friday's series opener. Cleveland is 4-1 over their last 5 and are swinging a hot bat, scoring 33 runs over this recent stretch. There's a good chance they keep it going here against Jason Vargas, who has a 6.32 ERA and 1.723 WHIP over his last 3 starts and a 4.25 ERA and 1.299 WHIP in 15 career starts against the Indians.
Cleveland counters with Josh Tomlin, who is coming off a sensational start against these same Royals in his last outing. Tomlin held KC to just 1 run on 6 hits (0 walks) in a full 9 innings of work. That continued an impresive run for Tomlin against these Royals, as he's allowed 2 or less run in 6 or more innings of work in each of his last 6 starts against Kansas City. Tomlin is also working on an impressive 16-5 run over his last 21 starts against division opponents. Take Cleveland!
JIM FEIST
Nationals vs. A's
Play: Under 7½
This is a good pitcher's park and Washington is 3,000 miles from home. Stephen Strasburg is throwing great, off 3-0 and 3-2 wins. Strasburg (6-1) manhandled the Padres on Saturday, firing seven scoreless innings while scattering three hits and a walk and striking out a career-high 15 in a 3-0 win. The team is 7-2-1 under the total when he starts. Oakland is #25 in baseball in runs scored, and the Under is 12-3-1 in the Athletics last 16 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
TEDDY DAVIS
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins
Play: Marlins -113
Despite the records odds makers are showing who they really favor in this situation.
Corbin hasn't been very solid all year long with a 5.28 ERA. He has been just awful on the road with a 9.45 ERA and a 0-4 record to go with it. His recent form isn't any better with a 7.87 ERA.
Marlins dropped game 1 yesterday, but I look for them to bounce back here as they had won 4 straight prior to that. Urena has been respectable with a 3.58 ERA on the year and really good at home in three starts with a 2.70 ERA.
DENNIS MACKLIN
Giants vs. Phillies
Play: Giants +109
Tyler Blach has been decent and while he struggled on the road, has an excellent chance to get healty and build some confidence against a freefalling Phillies outfit that is 4-16 L20 and throwing a winless starter who rocks an ERA of 5.00 for the year. This is a very important 7-game roadies for the Giants who need to make some hay here if they have any hopes of getting back into the playoff hunt in an uber competitive NL West.
LARRY WALLACE
Astros vs. Rangers
Play: Astros -115
Keuchel is 8-0 this year with a 1.81 ERA. While throwing on the road he is 4-0 with a 2.57 ERA. Houston is 6-1 in their last 7 games while playing on Friday. Also, Houston is 6-0 in their last 6 games on the road with Keuchel pitching.