ANDRE RAMIREZ
Yankees vs. Blue Jays
Play: Over 8½
Pineda features a strong 3.11 career ERA against the Blue Jays, and he’s been very consistent all season, allowing three or fewer runs in nine consecutive starts, so I am confident siding with him. Also, Liriano is having huge control issues, walking 23 batters in his 28.1 innings pitched, and the Yankees are a team that will capitalize on free passes, plus overall he has not looked good this season, so I expect the Yankees to get the best of him. The over is the play here. I have the Yankees winning 7-4.
TEDDY COVERS
Astros vs. Rangers
Play: Astros -117
Houston went 22-7 in May, with a remarkable 14 of those 22 wins coming by three runs or more. They entered June ranked #1 in MLB in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS; #2 in on-base percentage. Their pitching has been every bit as good, Top 5 in baseball in both traditional (ERA) and advanced metric (FIP) stats.
Oftentimes, after a team puts together a huge run like the one the Astros have been on, we can and should expect some regression – after all, Houston isn’t going to win 70% of their games for the full season. But this Carlos Correa quote makes me think that the Astros aren’t about to take their foot off the gas pedal here, especially against hated in-state rival Texas: “I think we’re in a good position right now but I’m not going to get comfortable. We’re going to have to try for more. We’re going to try to be 30 games over .500 if we can.”
Astros starter Dallas Keuchel is still considered a ‘home/road dichotomy’ pitcher in the broader betting markets; hence the relatively cheap price to support Houston today. In 2015 and 2016, Keuchel went a combined 10-15 on the highway with an ERA approaching 5.00. This year, in five road starts, Keuchel is 4-0 with a 2.57 ERA and the Astros have won all five of those games; clear evidence that this young hurler is maturing into a savvy veteran. It’s surely worth noting that the last time Keuchel faced this Rangers lineup he threw a complete game shutout.
Yu Darvish has been excellent for the Rangers this season, and the Rangers are 8-3 with him on the hill. But Darvish has shown some regression in recent starts; dealing with high pitch counts. Behind him, the Rangers bullpen has been problematic, to put it mildly. Manager Jeff Bannister, talking about his bullpen: “It’s obviously disappointing. However, these are the guys we have, and we need to find a way to get these guys going.”
Texas ranks #29 out of 30 MLB teams with a 5.00 bullpen ERA and they rank #28 in strikeout percentage. That’s a very bad combo against an Astros lineup that has just pounded out 48 runs in their last four ballgames, red hot right now.
Frank Sawyer
Indians vs. Royals
Play: Royals +100
Kansas City (22-30) looks to bounce-back from a 6-5 loss to the Tigers on Wednesday. The Royals have then won 10 of their last 14 games after a victory. Kansas City has also won 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Cleveland (28-24) has lost 7 of their last 10 games against an opponent that allowed at least five runs in their last game. The Indians have also lost 8 of their last 11 opening games to a new series.
RJ ROBBINS
Chicago vs. Detroit
Play: Chicago +1.5
Detroit is 25-28 and a half a game ahead of the White Sox's who are 24-28. Chicago is 6-3 this year against the Tigers and Holland has defeated the Tigers earlier back on April 29, 6-4. We will take Chicago plus the 1.5 Runs on the Run Line!
SPORTS WAGERS
PHILADELPHIA -1½ +178 over San Francisco
We’re not going to concern ourselves much with Philadelphia’s starter here because this has nothing to do with him. This is strictly a fade against Ty Blach but it is worth noting that Jerad Eickhoff is coming on with a BB/K split of 8/23 over his past 27 frames to go along with a xERA of 3.60 over that same span.
AT&T Park is unique. The dimensions are unique and so are the little intricacies that the Giants have mastered over the years. It is for that reason that the Giants manage to stay in games at home and win a high percentage of them. When they had the talent, San Fran could also play on the road but this year the talent level is worse and those key players from years gone by are past their prime. Get the Giants on the road and nothing is the same. With perhaps the worst bullpen in the majors, the Giants nine road wins in 28 tries is atrocious but because the Phillies are in such horrible form offensively, we get a good opportunity to get behind the host before their stock inevitably goes up.
The slumping Phillies enter this series opener with a 17-34 record, worst in baseball. The team’s problems are manyfold, but two players whose struggles stick out are Maikel Franco and Odubel Herrera. Franco, who hit 25 home runs last season, has mustered a paltry .216 batting average with six home runs and 28 RBI’s in 194 plate appearances this season. Herrera, the Phillies’ lone representative in the All-Star Game last year, hit .286 with 42 extra-base hits and 25 stolen bases last season. So far this season, he’s batting a measly .218 with 15 extra-base hits and four stolen bases in 206 PA. However, just like with pitchers, batters have good and bad luck too and this duo has had horrible luck, thus a correction to the good is on the way. The data doesn’t exactly paint a grim picture of Franco or Herrara. Per FanGraphs, Franco is hitting a few more line drives than he did last year and is making harder contact overall while the same goes for Herrara to a lesser degree. Those hard hit balls are going to drop in or hit some gaps real soon. When Franco’s luck changes, so, too will everything else for the Phillies offense and we’ll gamble that the offense breaks out here against Ty Blach.
Blach is 3-2 with a respectable 3.83 ERA which is made up of three relief appearances and five starts. In his last three starts in which Blach went at least seven full innings in each, he has an ERA of 2.49. On paper, it’s pretty but under the hood it doesn’t get much uglier so things are going to blow up on this stiff big time. Blach has decent control and a strong groundball rate of 50% but that’s not enough. You see, he has the worst K-rate in MLB among qualified starters with 19 K’s in 49 innings. His K-rate and 4% swing and miss rate are highly discouraging and his minor league numbers don't offer much hope either. Blach is at the mercy of batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and that is where his home park plays a big role in his success. Ty Blach’s BABIP is a ridiculous and unsustainable .152. What his surface stats do not reveal is that on the road, this hittable pitcher has an ERA of 9.45 after giving up 21 hits and 16 earned runs in 13.1 innings of work. This park is not going to help him out whatsoever.
OAKLAND +122 over Washington
Is there a hotter pitcher in MLB baseball than Stephen Strasburg? That would be a resounding no! Strasburg struck out 15 batters in his last start. The start before that, he whiffed 11. That’s 26 K’s over his last 14.2 innings. In 10 starts, Strasburg is 6-1 with a 2.94 ERA. The Nationals have won his last five starts and overall, Washington has won eight of his 10 starts. Strasburg has a BAA of .213 and he also has an incredible BB/K split of 18/74 over 67 innings. He also pitches for the first-place Nationals, who have a 10-game lead in their division and we just hit June.
Clayton Kershaw is in Milwaukee today. Stephen Strasburg is in Oakland. Milwaukee is 29-25 and in first place in the NL Central while the A’s are 23-30 and in last place in the AL West. Kershaw is a -220 favorite today while Strasburg is a mere -130 against an unrecognizable starter named Andrew Triggs. We have a serious problem with that discrepancy and you should too. Shouldn’t Strasburg be at least somewhere in the same range as Kershaw today? Strasburg is closer in price to Bronson Arroyo today than he is to Clayton Kershaw. You can join the thousands in line to bet Strasburg today in what appears to be a steal of a price or an early Father’s Day gift or you can join us in betting the team that the oddmakers don’t want us to play. In poker, you will often see a “clever” player make a small wager in relation to the pot in a no-limit game when he has a monster hand. That is called an invite bet, which prompts everyone left in the hand to call because the pot is so big and the bet is so small. This is an invite line that serves the same purpose. It is designed to make you lose money and many likely will accept the invitation. Bright red flags are going off here so be very careful if you were thinking Nats.
SAN DIEGO +108 over Colorado
Clayton Richard is putting up some very respectable numbers. He has a BB/K split of 19/50 in 69 innings. Over his last five starts, Richard’s BB/K split is 8/27 over 33 innings. His groundball rate is elite at 58%. Richard has battled his way back from 2013 left shoulder surgery and 2014 thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. The 33-year-old has emerged from those setbacks with a new throwing motion—a lower arm slot that is essentially side-arm—that has made his sinker even more effective. His sinker-laden pitch mix has led to an exceptionally high groundball rate and it’s worth noting that in 2016 no qualified starting pitcher had a groundball rate higher than 60% and only two relievers induced grounders at a loftier rate. Clayton Richard is a strong play when being offered a price anywhere and even more so at home. Furthermore, few are paying attention to the Padres but we are. They have won four in a row and seven of 10 and their last four wins came against the Nationals once and the Cubs three times.
German Marquez is 4-2 with an ERA of 3.76 after seven starts. Pitching for the Rockies or half your games at Coors, an ERA like that attracts attention. The Rockies are a first place club that is also attracting a lot of attention these days but we’re in the value business and to us, this one sticks out. You see, Seattle was a -140 favorite over Colorado yesterday in Seattle. Yovani Gallardo was starting for the M’s. How can the Rockies be +130 yesterday against that stiff and subsequently be favored here against a superior pitcher and a team that is playing so well? It’s all data based information that the oddsmakers use as part of their criteria for setting lines. The Padres are a team few bet on and that sets up this great opportunity, which brings us back to Marquez.
While Marquez has a very good surface ERA, the underlying numbers say not so good. His swing and miss rate is down to 8% so he’ll be sliding back toward his below average strikeout rate (5.6 K’s/9) from the minors. His first-pitch strike rate is also down, which puts his control and command at risk for further degradation. Marquez has an unsustainable 85% strand rate over his last five starts. At 22 years of age and with only 41 innings of Triple-A experience, some rough outings lie ahead for him and now that there’s plenty of film available to study, those rough outings are going to come sooner than later. Wrong side favored.
Will Rogers
San Francisco vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia
The set-up: Two last-place teams get together for a three-game series this weekend in Philadelphia. The Phillies own MLB's worst overall record at 17-34 (are 15 1/2 games back of the Nats in the NL East) and will host the 22-33 SF Giants, who are tied for last in the NL West with the Padres, 11 1/2 games back of the Rockies. The Phillies were just outscored 21-5 in a three-game sweep in Miami, losing for the 25th time in 31 games. Philadelphia completed May at 6-22, the team's fewest wins in a single month in 20 years. The Giants open a seven-game road trip having gone 9-19 on the road in 2017, while allowing 5.82 RPG.
The pitching matchup: Ty Blach (3-2 & 3.83 ERA) starts for the Giants and Jerad Eickhoff (0-5 & 4.74 ERA) for the Phillies. Blach has been outstanding since he was shifted from the bullpen to the rotation, except for an ugly May 6th outing in Cincinnati when he allowed 10 runs (eight earned) in a 14-2 loss. He lasted a season-high 7 2/3 innings last time out at Atlanta, winning his third consecutive start by allowing two runs on six hits. In fact, Blach has allowed as many runs in his six other starts (10) as he did in that three-inning debacle at Cincinnati. This marks his first start against Phildelphia. Eickhoff pitched at least six innings in each of his first three starts of 2017 but has failed to go beyond that point since. He went 5 1/3 innings and allowed three runs in his last outing, a game the Phillies won 4-3. However, that still leaves the Phillies only 2-8 (minus-$628) in his 10 starts in 2017. Like Blach, Eichoff makes his first starts against this opponent on Friday.
The pick: It's difficult to make a strong case for Philadelphia but the Giants remain a mess. They are averaging only 2.6 runs over their past nine games, rank second-worst in the NL in team batting (.228), are dead last in HRs (42) and are third from the bottom in walks (149).
Brandon Shively
Arizona vs. Miami
Pick: Over 8.5
The Arizona Diamondbacks have been excellent against right handed pitching this year. Jose Urena is wild and he's been very lucky with stranding runners on base all year. That isn't likely to continue for too much longer.
Patrick Corbin has been terrible on the road, and the Marlins are very good against lefties. The over is a whopping 17-4-1 in Corbin's last 22 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is also 6-0 in the Marlins last 6 following a loss.
Look for both teams to put plenty on the board here.
Larry Ness
Twins vs. Angels
Pick: Angels
The Twins opened a 10-game road trip with a 4-2 win last night in Anaheim, the first of a four-game series with the Angels. The Twins were coming off a three-game sweep at home against the Astros, one in which they had allowed 40 runs. However, while Minnesota is just 12-18 at home to open 2017, the Twins own MLB's best road winning percentage at 15-5 (.750) and its second-best moneyline mark at plus-$1,222. The Angels fell to 2-2 on their seven-game homestand and while they may be in second place in the AL West at 28-29, they are 11 1/2 games back of the Astros, who own MLB's best record (38-16). Meanwhile, Minnesota's 27-23 record puts them a virtual tie with the 28-24 Indians for first place in the AL Central.
The pitching matchup features Kyle Gibson (1-4, 7.85 ERA) and JC Ramirez (5-3, 3.38 ERA). Gibson was once thought to be a "rising star" by Minnesota's organization but he posted a 5.07 ERA last season (was 6-11) and got off to such a bad start in 2017 (never lasted more than 5.1 innings in six starts) that he was sent to Triple-A Rochester. His recall on May 22 had more to do with Phil Hughes going on the DL and the team's bullpen woes. Gibson gave up three runs (two earned) on five hits and four walks in no-decision against Tampa Bay on Sunday, matching a season-high of 5.1 innings. He has allowed fewer than four runs in just half of his eight starts in 2017 with a 7.85 ERA, 1.96 WHIP and .329 BAA! Gibson is 0-2 with a 6.21 ERA in six career starts against the Angels (Twins are 2-4).
JC Ramirez is off back-to-back wins and has worked seven innings in four of his nine outings since joining the rotation. He has allowed only four ERs over his last three starts (1.77 ERA). He's been outstanding," Los Angeles manager Mike Scioscia said. "It is not an easy transition to make (to be a starter), especially since he's spent his entire career working out of the bullpen. The big thing is his consistency. He's working deep into games, and there (have) been very few where he hasn't kept us in the game." Ramirez is 3-1 with a 2.35 ERA in his past seven starts (Angels are 6-1). This will be his first career appearance against Minnesota but I'll back him.
Bruce Marshall
Pirates at Mets
Pick: Over
The Mets played a couple of lower-scoring games in the just-completed series vs. the Brewers but still show only seven "unders" in their last 38 games. Tonight at Citi Field, both of these offenses get looks at pitchers they saw just last weekend. NY's Matt Harvey has pitched better in his last two starts but still has a 4.95 ERA. Meanwhile the Bucs; Gerrit Cole has allowed nine runs and 20 hits over 9 2/3 IP covering his last two starts.
Cal Sports
Los Angeles at Milwaukee
Play: Los Angeles -1.5
Kershaw only lasted 4.33 innings in his last start and gave up 3 HR's while on the season in his 10 other starts he allowed a total of 7 HR's. Kershaw has actually pitched berrter on the road this season posting a 2.10 ERA in his 5 starts. The Brewers offense has slowed down of late as they are averagibng 3.9 runs/game over the last 10 days. On the flip-side Brewers pitcher Jimmy Nelson is off the best game he pitched this year and we do not expect a repeat performance.
Buster Sports
Minnesota at Los Angeles
Play: Los Angeles -125
The Angels and Twins continue their series in LA after Minnesota scored 3 runs in the 9th last night for a come from behind 4-2 victory that broke their 4 game losing streak. Tonight we believe they will start a new losing streak as we will be on the Angels in this one. The starting pitchers are for the Twins RH Kyle Gibson (1-4, 7.85 ERA) and he will face the Angels RH JC Ramirez (5-3, 3.38 ERA) Gibson has had a real rough start to the season and he has been just brutal on the road sporting a 8.79 ERA with a WHIP of 1.675. When he faces the Angels in his career his numbers are not much better, with a 6.48 ERA and with a WHIP of 1.380. As for Ramirez he has never faced Minnesota which will give him a clear advantage. Ramirez has been lights out in his last 3 starts. He has a 1.74 ERA with a WHIP under 1. The Angels tie up their 4 game series with the Twins tonight.
The Prez
Washington at Oakland
Play: Washington -133
The Washington Nationals (-133, 7.5) are in Oakland on Friday night to face the Athletics with first pitch scheduled for 10:05 p.m. ET. The Oakland Coliseum mound will find Nationals Stephen Strasburg (6-1, 2.94 ERA) opposing A's Andrew Triggs (5-4, 2.64).
Strasburg has returned to his dominating form and is coming off a 3-0 win over the Padres in which he allowed three hits and one walk in seven innings this past Saturday. The Athletics are similar to that of San Diego offensively. The lineup doesn't draw walks and strikes out at a high ratio compared to the free passes they draw. Strasburg has 26 strikeouts in his last two turns and is 4-0 with a 2.70 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and .203 batting average against in five road affairs this season.
The A's send Triggs and his unorthodox delivery to the mound. The long reliever has become a starter for the Athletics due to injury and his season has been nothing short of inconsistent. Ignore is 2.64 ERA as he has been extremely fortunate with standing runners. Triggs is supposed to be tough on right-handed hitters because of his 3/4 delivery but lefties are hitting .157 while righties have averaged .283 against him this year.
Harry Bondi
ARIZONA (+105) over Miami
Arizona is playing as well as any team in the league right now and has won 13 of there last 17 games. Tonight’s Miami starter Jose Urena has really struggled at home winning just 2 of his last 13 home starts!
Bob Balfe
Arizona / Miami Over 8.5
This line is a bit low to me as Arizona is great at getting to right handed pitchers and the Marlins are great at getting to left handed pitching. I think the first 4 innings will be all we need to get both teams to four runs to send this one over the total. Both pitchers have struggled in their past few starts so I don’t see either one pitching a gem.
Dave Essler
Atlanta +100
Fading Arroyo, and Foltynewicz can keep the ball down. Arroyo hasn't made it through the sixth inning is his last three starts, and in those starts gave up 9 jacks. He's allowed 16 on the season in 51 innings. The Reds' pen has an ERA of 6.08 over the last week - Foltynewicz was crushed in his last two starts, which I attribute to high pitch-count games. Obviously his last start was a short one, so he should be back to "respectable." The Braves are expected to get Adonis Garia (and O'Flaherty) back, which makes their offense much better. The Braves pen has actually got "elite" numbers of late, and it's all about "right now" for me.