DAVE COKIN
REWERS VS. PHILLIES
PLAY: BREWERS +105
Vincent Velasquez is an impressive young pitcher, and I’m one who’s very bullish on the Phillies righty. But like many of the Phils, he’s struggling right now and I’ll be trying to beat him tonight.
The early season euphoria in the City of Brotherly Love has given way to cruel reality lately. The Phillies will enter tonight’s clash with the Brewers having dropped seven straight games. I think there’s a very good chance the slump gets extended to eight consecutive defeats.
The problem for this team right now is a serious lack of offense. The Phils have been held to two or fewer runs in six of the losses, and the one game where they scratched out three runs was also a defeat. This is not a go with team at the present time, and Velasquez is also mired in a slump of his own.
Milwaukee is actually kind of an under the radar success story right now. The Brewers have been playing some good baseball recently and they’ve got a good form guy on the hill tonight in Jimmy Nelson.
This is one of those games where the betting line is about where it should be, but it isn’t as well. I realize that sounds contradictory. Basically, what I’m saying is that based on the full body of work for both the teams and the two starting pitchers, the Phillies and Velasquez are properly priced at somewhere right around 6:5. But off the current form for both the two teams and the starting pitchers, I see Nelson and the Brewers as being a worthwhile take at any underdog price. Thus, Milwaukee with a plus sign is a play for me tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Mariners vs. Rangers
Play: Under 8½
This game fits a solid totals system that has played under 13 of 17 times since 2004. Play the under for road dogs like Seattle that scored 10 or more runs as a road favorite vs an opponent like Texas off a road loss. Seattle has played under in 6 of 8 vs winning teams. Texas has gone under in 3 of 4 with a day off. The Rangers have Darvish going and he looked good in his first start this year and he has gone under in his last 3 starts vs Seattle. T. Walker for the Mariners has a solid 2.77 road era . Play this one under.
Marc Lawrence
Royals vs. Indians
Play: Indians -153
Edges - Indians: Danny Salazar 3-0 with 2.13 ERA last 3 home team starts in this series, and 12-4 last 16 overall home team starts, including 3-1 with 1.61 ERA and 0.89 WHIP this season. Royals: Ednison Volquez 0-3 with 6.48 ERA last 3 team starts in this series. With Volquez sporting a 6.95 ERA with a 1.91 WHIP away, as opposed to a 2.38 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP at home this season, we recommend a 1* play on Cleveland.
Art Aronson
Mets vs. Marlins
Play: Under 7
The visitors hand the ball to All-Star candidate Noah Syndergaard (5-2, 1.84 ERA) who was ejected in the third inning of a game vs. the Dodgers last Saturday after throwing behind second basman Chase Utley. Syndergaard has been the very model of consistency this year though and is 3-1 with a tiny 1.67 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with Tom Koehler (3-5, 4.50) who comes in off a win, giving up two earned runs with two K’s over seven innings over the Braves on Sunday (note that Koehler is 2-1 with a 3.49 ERA in all “night” games this year). We’re expecting these two competent starters to battle into the latter frames, indeed making the UNDER worthy of a second look in this matchup.
Matt Josephs
Brewers vs. Phillies
Play: Under 7½
Vincent Velasquez is glad to be home where he is 3-1 with a 0.74 ERA and a WHIP of 0.781 in four starts. His numbers are ugly, but roadtrips to Chicago and Detroit will do that to a pitcher. Aaron Hill is the only Brewer to have seen the righty and he's 1-for-2 in those games. Milwaukee's lineup isn't very good as evidenced by the .223 batting average on the road before Thursday. The Phillies bullpen hasn't been terrible with just one loss and one blown save at home. Their offense has been bad hitting around .215 in their last eight games. Jimmy Nelson has allowed three runs and 15 hits in his last three outings so the righty should find some success on Friday. Last year he was touched up a bit by the Phillies, but their offense is much worse this year. These two offenses should be held down on Friday.
Jim Feist
Braves at Dodgers
Pick: Under
This is a big park in centerfield, tough on hitters, and a Atlanta offense is in town ranked No. 29 in runs scored. Atlanta is on a 7-3-2 run under the total, but at least they have a hot starter going in Julio Teheran (2.77 ERA). Opponents are hitting .209 off him, but he's 1-5 because the offense can't get him any runs. The Under is 22-8-2 in Teheran's last 32 starts during game 1 of a series. The Dodgers are home from a long road trip, playing yesterday in Wrigley Field. The Under is 14-4-3 in the Dodgers last 21 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400, plus they are on an 18-8 run under at home.
Allen Eastman
Tampa Bay / Minnesota Over 9
The Rays offense has really come alive. This team has gone 'over' in 10 of its last 12 road games, and they are hitting the ball well. The 'over' is 13-5 in Tampa Bay's last 18 games overall and this team has been a dead 'over' bet. The same can be said for Minnesota. They are 7-3 against the total in their last 10 games and they are averaging five runs a game in their last seven. The 'over' is 25-10 in their last 35 games overall, and these are two teams that have very underrated offenses and very inconsistent pitching staffs. Minnesota will be starting Ricky Nolasco in this game, and he has been terrible this year, posting a 5.28 ERA. He is coming off a rare quality start. But Nolasco has gone 'over' three straight times in the start following the quality start. He is not a good pitcher, and I think the hot Rays lineup will get to him early.
Jason Sharpe
St. Louis (+115) over San Francisco
St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright is the type of starting pitcher that I like to bet on in baseball this time of the season. The big story behind Wainwright early on this season was how badly the 34-year-old was pitching after what had been a stellar career before this year. Wainwright made some adjustments with his delivery a few starts back and spoke about them afterwards. Wainwright dropped his arm slot, and since then he's looked much better all around with an ERA of just 3.21 while upping his strikeouts and lowering his walks as well. These changes are huge and most importantly make Wainwright undervalued right now. On the other side of things here San Francisco goes with Johnny Cueto here as it looks like Cueto is having a sensational season, but a closer look shows he's had the good fortune of facing the light-hitting San Diego Padres in 3 of his starts already this season, all of which were 9-inning outings where he allowed just 1 run combined. The Padres are on record-setting levels this year for being one of the worst offensive teams in MLB the last 35 years. If you take those Padres starts out of the numbers you see Cueto with an ERA of 3.30 this season, which would be right around his career numbers overall and making him overvalued here. Added all up and the value here is on the Cardinals in this one.
Raphael Esparza
Brazil -290 to Win Group B in Copa America
Brazil should have no problem winning this 'Group' and I see Brazil going far in this summer tournament. Brazil has an easy 'Group' to win as in this Group they have Ecuador, Peru, and Haiti. The only team that might give them problems will be Ecuador, but the team Brazil is bringing to the US in this tournament has tons of talent and will be too much to handle. I'm a bit shocked that Brazil is not -500 or higher just because Haiti is around 60-1 or high to win this Group, so pretty much you can write them off. Either way Brazil wins and they have no problem advancing to the next round.
Alan Harris
Brazil -290 To Win 2016 Copa America Group B
This may seem like a big price to lay here on Brazil, but a closer look will show you that they are far and away the best team in the group and this price actually seems a bit short to us. Neymar will not be part of this Brazil squad because he will be playing for the Olympic team in Rio later this summer, but Brazil will still send a star-studded roster to the states for this tournament. They have not advanced past the quarter finals of the Copa since they won it back in 2007, and guys like Hulk, Philippe Coutinho, Willian and Douglas Costa will be chomping at the bit to prove that Brazil is much better that the poor showings that they have been putting up in these international tourneys. Their fourth-place finish in the last World Cup was a huge disappointment for the country as a whole, and the Copa is really their first chance to show up on a big stage. They may get some push from Ecuador for the group, but there is an excellent chance that Peru and Haiti won't score on them. So really, their clash with Ecuador will be for the group. We don't see them losing that one, and even with a draw they should have a better goal differential in the other two games to take the group on the tiebreaker. We made them around a -400 favorite here for the group, so we have no problem laying a smaller number on Brazil as we have them winning Group B and advancing to the knockout round pretty easily.
Larry Ness
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
Pick: Texas Rangers
Yu Darvish (1-0, 1.80 ERA) struck out seven and allowed just one run on three hits in five innings of Saturday's 5-2 win over Pittsburgh. He threw 81 pitches in his return from Tommy John surgery, as he made his first big league appearance since August 9, 2014. Darvish passed the test in his first start and he will be on a 95-pitch limit against the Mariners. "Right now, I don't know if I want to push him to 100," manager Jeff Banister told reporters. "That 85 to 95 (limit), and a lot of that is dependent on how he gets to that." Darvish says he is fine with the possibility of being on a pitch count throughout the month of June. "It’s better to have a pitch count than they push you and you overpitch," Darvish told reporters.
The Rangers open a three-game series against the visiting Seattle Mariners on Friday. The two teams are tied for first place in the AL West at 31-22, after Seattle overcame a 12-2 deficit to record the largest comeback victory in franchise history with a 16-13 decision over the San Diego Padres on Thursday. Taijuan Walker (2-5, 3.31 ERA) takes the mound against Darvish and he has lost FIVE consecutive decisions, having lasted five or less innings in FOUR of them. He was roughed up by Minnesota in his last outing when he served up three HRs while allowing five runs and six hits in just 4.1 innings. Walker is 1-1 with a 3.47 ERA in five career appearances (four starts / Mariners are 2-2) against Texas and received a no-decision back on April 13 when he gave up one run and five hits in six innings.
Darvish is 3-3 with a 4.47 ERA in eight career starts against Seattle (Texas is 4-4 ) but after a VERY promising first outing last Saturday, I’ll back Darvish here against the Mariners, who could (should?) be more than just a little ‘flat’ after the team’s remarkable comeback win last night.
Power Sports
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
Pick: San Diego Padres
The Padres are not a team we typically associate w/ strong offensive numbers, but all of a sudden their bats have exploded to the tune of 27 runs in the L2 days. Of all the things that could potentially slow them down, a visit from the Rockies and their beleaguered pitching staff certainly isn't on the short list.
Now, I am fully aware that last night saw San Diego give up 16 runs for the second time in the last three games (I won w/ the opponent (Seattle) & the Over in those respective games!). But I firmly believe that tonight's starter Drew Pomeranz is the man to stop the bleeding. With a 2.48 ERA and 1.121 WHIP, he's clearly deserving of better than a 4-6 team start record. That ERA was 1.70 before he allowed 6 ER at Arizona on Sunday, easily his worst outing of the year. But he should bounce back here against a Colorado lineup that was only able to manage six runs total the L2 days in its own hitter friendly ballpark. Here at home, Pomeranz is 2-1 w/ a 1.02 ERA and 0.962 WHIP.
The fact that the Padres blew a 10-run yday is pretty unforgivable. But the Rockies are in just as bad of shape right now after dropping three of four at home to the lowly Reds. They have also lost 14 of their last 18 games at Petco Park. Starter Chris Rusin checks in with a pretty hideous 6.58 ERA and 2.038 WHIP in five starts this season and is still winless. Like Pomeranz, he was rocked (no pun intended) his last time out, but the difference here is that was the third time in four starts where Rusin allowed 10+ hits while not making it out of the fifth inning. I fully anticipate this one going the way of the home team.
Brandon Lee
Indians -165
Cleveland is worth a look at home on Friday against the Royals. The Indians will have a huge edge on the mound in this one, as they send out Danny Salazar against Edinson Volquez. Salazar has been dominant at home this season, going 3-1 with a 1.61 ERA and 0.893 WHIP in 4 starts. Volquez has been the exact opposite on the road, as he has a 6.95 ERA and 1.909 WHIP in 4 road starts. Volquez is also 2-5 with a 8.31 ERA and 2.106 WHIP in 8 career starts against the Indians.
Jimmy Boyd
Rangers -126
Texas is showing some great value here at home against the Mariners. Texas will send out Yu Darvish for his second start of the season. Darvish allowed just 1 run on 3 hits in 5 innings and most impressively only walked one hitter. I look for Darvish to come out just as strong here and cool off the hot bats of the Mariners.
Texas also has an advantage here playing on a day of rest, while Seattle just played in a slugfest last night in San Diego, where they overcame a 10-run deficit to beat the Padres 16-13. Look for the Mariners to come out a bit flat here in this one.
Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning record and 8-2 in Darvish's last 10 starts when their opponent is coming in off a game where they scored 5 or more runs.
John Ryan
White Sox +125
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-13 over the last 5 seasons good for 68% winners and made 23 units/unit wagered. Play on all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CHI WHITE SOX) poor AL hitting team (AVG under .260) against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA over 4.50), ice cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 15 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. CWS are 22-8 (+16.3 Units) against the money line after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs this season and are 17-9 (+10.1 Units) against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season. Detroit is 9-18 (-12.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging less than 0.5 errors/game over the last 3 seasons.
Fundamental Discussion Points The White Sox bullpen is pitching well this season with an ERA of 3.10 and a WHIP of 1.243 which are both better than Detroit's bullpen. They can utilize that with Rodon starting who got support in the last matchup against the Tigers with Chicago getting the win. Zimmerman is just returning to the mound after his groin injury and may have great stats against CWS, however that was years ago with a very different team composition. Jimmy Rollins has a pair of homers against Zimmerman, as Dioner Navarro has a homer in just 2 at-bats with him on the mound.