Brandon Shively
Saint Louis Cardinals +115
The Giants have opened as a small road favorite with Johnny Cueto on the mound. Usually, I would agree with this line, but not tonight. One reason in particular is that Cueto has been battling some back discomfort and he is a pitcher that uses a lot of his back and core in his delivery with a full turn. Because of this, I have questions about Cueto’s overall effectiveness for this game.
Then there is also the fact that Cueto has lost his last three team starts at Busch Stadium and he has a career 5.59 ERA his last six starts there.. Cueto is facing Adam Wainwright who has been gaining momentum as of late and the Cardinals have won his last seven decisions. Wainwright’s advanced number’s also indicate that he is not as bad as his 5.71 ERA indicates, but the oddsmaker has to list him as a short homedog here because of the high ERA. His advanced numbers pitching at home indicate signs of progression, especially at home with a 2.50 FIP on the season. One key stat that has improved for Wainwright is holding runners on base. Two of his last three starts, he has left stranded all of the runners on base. The other start in between was against the Cubs when he left stranded 72.7% which is also quality. In six of his first eight starts this season, he left only 70% or below of baserunners stranded.
Cueto and Wainwright have faced each other twice lifetime. The result is the Cardinals winning both of those games.
The Giants are already without Angel Pagan and now without Hunter Pence in the outfield. Pence was hitting .298 on the season and leading the team in RBI’s. Pence had a team high 21 RBI’s on the road this season. Last year, the Giants went 12-18 when Pence was out of the lineup.
While the Giants have been winning, one of their weaknesses is the bullpen who is ranked 27th in the Majors using my rankings and has two blown saves within the last week.
The Cardinals have won 80% of Wainwright’s last 30 starts pitching on 5 days of rest. Wainwright hasn’t been listed as a home underdog since the 2009 season when he beat Justin Verlander of the Tigers, 11-2. Look for the Cardinals to pick up the win tonight coming back home as they have won 78% of their last 27 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
Greg Shaker
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Royals / Indians Over 7.5
Lot's of reasons to like the OVER here and not limited to the fact that both teams are playing a lot of those recently. While these pitchers are not so bad neither has had great success verses their opponents, Volquez especially has been Cleveland's Bitch at 2-5 in 8 starts and 8.31 ERA over his career. OVER is now 20-6 at this Hitter's Park this season and combined these teams are 18-2 OVER last 10 Games with both scoring a lot of runs batting against Right Side Throwers. A quick look over the last 10 games for each team we discover that KC is Scoring just Over 8 Per 9 against Righty's and Cleveland right at 5.4. We have 4 MLB Models that display potential run totals based on different factors and all 4 have this number being placed too low. There are still some Good Vig-Worthy Numbers left out there although the best number of +100 is gone.
Wunderdog
Indiana @ New York
Pick: Indiana +5
Indiana has excellent balance, seventh in the league in scoring and sixth in points allowed. They come off an impressive win over Seattle, 85-75, as Indiana shot 61.8 percent in the first half. The Fever are on a 7-2-1 ATS run against the Eastern Conference, plus 36-17-1 ATS playing on one day of rest. New York is home but struggling badly on offense, losing three in a row. They rank #10 in the league in points scored. The Liberty missed 12 of their first 16 shots Tuesday against the Minnesota Lynx, who raced out to a 17-point lead on the way to a 79-69 victory. New York is on a 4-10 ATS run, including 3-10 ATS against the Eastern Conference and 2-10 ATS at home.
Bruce Marshall
Brewers vs. Phillies
Play: Brewers +105
The Phils are fading fast with seven straight losses on the ledger. The offense that stalled over the past week vs. the Cubs and Nats was shackled by Milwaukee's Chase Anderson last night and looks to be in more trouble tonight vs. the Brewers' hot Jimmy Nelson, who has delivered four straight qualify starts with a 1.56 ERA. Meanwhile, Phils starter Vince Velasquez has been struggling, with a 6.31 ERA over his last five starts.
Ray Monohan
Yankees vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -121
The Orioles and Yankees meet in a big AL East showdown and it's the home team with some value here. Baltimore sends out Chris Tillman, who has been absolutely dominant lately. He hasn't lost in 8 starts and has allowed more than 3 runs since the middle of April. Tillman has everything working for him and continues to get the offensive support that allows him to settle in.
New York has also been a bad road team to back this year. With a record of just 12-16, the Yankees are manufacturing just a bit over 3 runs per game. That doesn't bode well for them when they're going up against a solid pitcher who rarely allows hits to be strung together.
Some trends to consider. Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 Friday games. Orioles are 7-2 in their last 9 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Given the Orioles solid play as of late, this is a nice spot to back them. Tillman is pitching very well and should be able to keep this Yankees lineup down.
Jack Jones
Baltimore Orioles -119
The Baltimore Orioles come into this series with the New York Yankees red hot at the plate. They have scored a combined 25 runs the past two days in back-to-back wins over the Red Sox. Not to mention, they have the edge on the mound tonight.
Chris Tillman is having one of the best seasons of his career, going 7-1 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.129 WHIP in 11 starts. Tillman is 5-0 with a 2.04 ERA and 1.160 WHIP in seven home starts, and the Orioles are 7-0 in those games. He has gone 2-0 with a 2.19 ERA in his last two starts against the Yankees, yielding only 3 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings.
Nathan Eovaldi has been decent for the Yankees this season at 6-2 with a 3.71 ERA over 10 starts. But Eovaldi hasn't really enjoyed much success against the Orioles, sporting a 3.86 ERA and 1.652 WHIP in three career starts against them, all of which came last season. He never once made it through 6 innings in any of those three starts.
The Yankees are 1-8 in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Orioles are 38-18 in Tillman's last 56 home starts. Baltimore is 78-35 in its last 113 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The Orioles are 49-19 in their last 68 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Brian Hay
Texas Rangers -140
Yu Darvish is back from Tommy John surgery. In his first start on Saturday he went five innings against Pittsburgh and yielded just one run on three hits and a walk. Darvish struck out seven Pittsburgh batters and looked like the same guy we've seen dominate the league the last three seasons. Today's price on Darvish is too good to pass up.
Michael Alexander
Mariners vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers -140
Yu Darvish passed the test in his first start since returning from Tommy John surgery and strives to follow up with another solid outing as the Texas Rangers open a three-game series against the visiting Seattle Mariners today. Darvish allowed one run in five innings in his season debut while beating the Pittsburgh Pirates on Saturday when he tossed 81 pitches. Seattle starter Walker has lost five consecutive decisions and has pitched five or fewer innings in four of them. He was roughed up by Minnesota in his last turn when he served up three homers while allowing five runs and six hits in 4 1/3 innings.
SPORTS WAGERS
Arizona +223 over CHICAGO
Winners of eight of nine and now playing .712 ball, the Cubs stock is through the roof. As a result of that, one must pay a massive premium to back the Cubbies every day and that makes us buyers of the opposition. It would be a daunting task to beat the Cubs if their hitting matched their pitching but that’s not the case at all. Overall, the Cubs are batting .255 this season, which ranks 15th out of 30 teams. However, they have scored the third most runs, which does not correlate with their team batting average. For instance, Oakland’s team batting average is .254 and it is ranked 24th in runs scored. The Angels are batting .257 and they’re ranked 20th in runs scored. The Cubs’ limited hits (they rank 17th in hits overall but 24th over their past 20 games) are being strung together in a very fortunate matter and while they’re a very good team, they are not supposed to be dominating in this fashion with such poor offensive numbers and it’s for that reason that we MUST continue to bet against them. There are great profits ahead in fading Chicago and it could very easily start here.
37-year old John Lackey is mowing them down in very impressive fashion this season. Lackey has 67 K’s in 68 frames to go along with a 3.16 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. It’s beautiful on paper but not so beautiful under the hood. Lackey’s 42%/22%/37% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate is one that suggests some rough outings. He’s been greatly aided by an 86% strand rate, which is the second highest strand rate among starters with seven or more starts this season. Lackey’s skills are absolutely in place for another productive season of which he’s well on his way to. He's stingy with the free pass and misses enough bats to put his command in favorable territory. However, Lackey is priced like a top-10 pitcher when he's not one and he now faces a D-Backs team that is gaining steam and that has hit him well in the past.
Right elbow inflammation for Arizona’s Rubby de la Rosa, which is likely to sideline him for a month, and another “injury” to Shelby Miller have opened an opportunity for Archie Bradley to build upon his good work (1.99 ERA, 2.87 xERA in seven starts) in the Pacific Coast League. Bradley just did that in his return to the Chase Field mound on Sunday, striking out nine Padres in 7 1/3 innings of work while walking just one and allowing three earned runs. Bradley’s fastball averaged 93.8 MPH in the outing, according to Brooks Baseball.Bradley is one of Arizona’s top prospects that made his big league debut in April 2015. He developed shoulder tightness that shut him down in early June last year but he still has excellent, natural stuff and above-average velocity. He owns a plus 91-96 mph fastball and an above-average power curveball in his arsenal. In particular, the depth on his curveball has improved and he’s getting consistent bend on it. Bradley has the potential to be a front-line starter and he is very worth playing in this spot. One game means nothing but at the very least it has to give him confidence. There is no question that he has the talent and if he can stay the course and not try to do too much here, he has a chance to thrive again. Big overlay.
MINNESOTA +110 over Tampa Bay
Minnesota is playing .300 ball. The worst teams in history didn’t play .300 ball and the Twins are surely not one of the worst teams in history. This is a very playable underdog because of the inevitable correction that will occur to its overall record. Tampa Bay is a banged up squad that has little appeal as a road favorite with Jake Odorizzi starting. Oddorizzi has been taken yard six times in his last four starts covering just 22 innings. He has a 4.50/4.57 ERA/xERA on the road over five starts and he has trouble keeping his pitch count down. Batters are seeing many pitches per AB against him. The Rays have won four of Odorizzi’s five road starts but that’s only because his offense has bailed him out. He’s left the game trailing in three of those five starts.
Ricky Nolasco comes in with a 5.28 ERA after 10 starts. He does not have a great history (6.75 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over 37 injury-plagued innings last year) so this market is ready to toss Nolasco atop the proverbial scrap heap. We say, “not so fast", as Nolasco's skills indicate improvements are on the way. Nolasco's solid swing and miss rate is sufficient to sustain his current 8K’s/9 over an entire season. It s achieved by drastically changing speeds via a 90 mph fastball, 82 mph slider (20% swing and miss rate), and 74 mph curve (16% swing and miss rate). Nolasco’s volatile ERA ranges from 3.70 to 6.75, but xERA ranges tighter, between 3.62 and 4.34, and illustrates luck's impact on his results. If indeed Nolasco’s elbow problems are largely the cause of 2015's lack of control, a return to full health may enable him to return to 2012-2014 control levels. Combine that with a strong swing and miss rate and we can't rule out the possibility of a sub-4.00 ERA. With almost no demand for his services and a thin Minnesota rotation, Nolasco is a decent buy when being offered prices at home against a beatable team like the one he’ll face here.
Seattle +132 over TEXAS
In his first big league game in 659 days, Yu Darvish didn't look like he had missed a beat, as he threw sizzling stuff and blazing heat to overpower the Pirates through five innings. It was actually an incredible performance considering the long layoff. Thing is, Darvish is still on a pitch count. He’s unlikely to go past six innings or 85 pitches so the Mariners will be looking to get his pitch count up with some good AB’s. One cannot assume that Darvish will thrive again but even if he does, there are no guarantees that the Rangers will emerge victorious.
Seattle brings a wave of momentum into this game after rallying from 10 down in San Diego of all places last night. We may not see a team rally from 10 down at that park again for the next five decades. Furthermore, Taijuan Walker is pretty good too and he’s under the radar after a bad season a year ago. Walker never outran the hideous start last season (7.33 ERA in first nine starts) which masked a pretty strong summer (3.62 ERA in last 20 games). An innings-pitched cap hit in mid-September. Walker threw more strikes (control gains) too. It's all here, stuff, skills, size, pedigree, so next step is cutting down disaster starts to reach his huge potential and he’s on his way to that too.Walker is enjoying a breakout so far in 2016, both on the surface (3.31 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) and beneath it: 8.7 K’s/9 1.7 BB’s/9, 49% groundballs. His first-pitch strike rate is all the way up to 65% over his last five starts in which he’s struck out 21 batters over 24 frames. First place in the AL West is up for grabs this weekend so we’re going with the price on the overall superior squad.
Chicago +120 over DETROIT
Carlos Rodon was a top 2014 draft pick that held his own in his first MLB exposure. Rodon’s strikeouts and swinging strikes held firm all of last season and his groundball % and HR avoidance were pluses. Control was a different story, as his first-pitch strike rate says he has work to do. Rodon’s dominant start/disaster start split says we have to take the good with the bad for now. Rodon has 54 K’s in 57 frames. He continues to fight his control but has walked two or less in seven of his past eight starts so it’s getting better. That said, this one is all about fading the Tigers’ starter.
Jordan Zimmermann comes off a slight groin injury that caused him to miss his last turn in the rotation. He last pitched on May 22 against the Rays and threw 5.2 innings of five hit, two run ball. Zimmermann is now 7-2 with a 2.52 ERA after nine starts. What is so sweet about that is that this market buys surface stats, which creates opportunities to bet against overpriced teams and pitchers. Zimmermann is the poster boy for misleading surface stats. No starting pitcher in baseball is outperforming their skills more than Zimmermann is. His 4.59 xERA is more than two runs higher than his actual ERA. His ERA went from 1.50 to 2.45 after blowing an 8-0 lead two games ago. He still emerged smelling like roses. Zimmerman has 40 K’s in 61 innings but take away one game against the Twins and he would have 31 K’s in 55 innings. While we can bank on continued good control from him given his low 33% ball%, his awful swing and miss rate and 41% groundball rate tells us there is more to come in terms of an ERA correction. Zimmerman continues to be priced like an upper-to mid-tier starter when he’s not even close to being one. Jordan Zimmermann is our #1 fade among all overpriced starters in the game.
Atlanta +169 over LOS ANGELES
Julio Teheran goes from a -130 home favorite (Atlanta is 6-23 at home) over the Marlins to a big road dog against a Dodgers’ squad that is just 13-12 at home this year and that is batting .227 over their past 20 games. Teheran is just 25 years old and he’s good. He took his 33 turns in the rotation last year and posted a 4.04 ERA after posting a 2.89 ERA in 33 starts in 2014. However, his struggles last year are overstated and primarily confined to a handful of hideous starts as opposed to sustained mediocrity (or worse).Teheran’s five starts of 6+ earned runs were tied for the third-most with a large group. It should come as no surprise then, that as he cut down the implosion outings, he looked more and more like himself. From July on, he posted a 3.23 ERA in 106 IP with just one of those 6+ ER outings on his ledger. Teheran finished with a bang, notching six starts of 0-2 earned runs en route to a 1.62 ERA in 39 innings with 32 strikeouts. Teheran brings his 2.77 ERA after 11 starts this year into this start. This kid is consistently good and has 62 K’s in 68 innings.
Kenta Maeda is getting a lot of good press around the league because he’s the owner of a sparkling 3.00 ERA and 1.05 WHIP after 10 starts. While his base skills are good, he stands some significant risk of regression. His favorable 25% hit rate and 85% strand rate likely will normalize. When that happens, his 4.01 xERA is a more likely level of where his ERA will end up. Maeda has just five pure quality starts in those 10 tries. He has just one pure quality start over his last five tries. In his last start, Maeda walked two and struck out just three in five innings. Are we seeing signs of fatigue? We might be. You see, Japanese teams use six-man rotations. They traditionally get five days of rest between starts, and with off days, many even get six days of rest. That was his routine for years in the Japanese League and it’s not an easy transition. The rigorous schedule at this level has ruined many Japanese pitchers before and while it’s way too early to diagnosis anything, Maeda is showing signs of trouble and he’s not as good as advertised to begin with.
SPS Investors
Arizona vs. Chicago
Pick: Chicago -1.5
The Chicago Cubs currently lead the Majors with a 37-15 overall record and have taken 3 of 4 from the Diamondback already this season. They have also been dominant in Game 1 of a series, going an impressive 22-6 in their last 28 series openers and are one of the most dominant home teams that we have seen as they have gone 45-17 in their last 62 games at Wrigley. Meanwhile, the Arizona Diamondbacks have not had much success in this venue having won just 5 of their last 19 meetings here.
John Lackey is thriving in a Cubs uniform and will no doubt be out for redemption in this contest. The last time Lackey faced off against the DBacks, he was pummeled, giving up six runs and eight hits in just six innings of work. While that was a poor performance, has been outstanding since and has allowed more than three earned runs only once. In his most recent trip to the mound, he gave up just a single run on four hits in seven innings in a victory over Philadelphia. It was his fourth start this season in which he went at least six innings and gave up one or zero runs. He finished the month of May with a 2-1 record and 2.09 ERA, striking out 40 over 43 innings and with six quality starts!
The Diamondbacks will send out one of their top prospects this afternoon in right-hander Archie Bradley. While Bradley has shown some bright spots, he is still technically classified as a 'rookie' since he did not meet the league innings minimum last season. He still has a lot to learn on the mound and will be facing an incredibly dangerous Cubs lineup. The Chicago bats flourished in their first series meeting this season and outscored Arizona 27-14 at Chase Field. Dexter Fowler was 5-for-11 with two RBIs and three runs scored. Ben Zobrist was 5-for-15 with three RBIs and four runs. Jason Heyward was 5-for-15 with five runs. Kris Bryant was 6-for-19 with three doubles and Anthony Rizzo went 4-for-15 with a homer, seven RBIs and four runs. If the Cubs continue to hit the ball as they have been, they should be able to do some damage to Bradley and make it a short outing for him.
Chicago holds the edge in nearly every facet of this matchup and should not only win the game, but should do so convincingly and by more than a single run. While there is not much value laying this amount of juice on the Cubs, there is a much better risk vs reward option in taking the runline.
BUSTER SPORTS
Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Atlanta Braves +167
Pitching in tonight's matchup is for the Braves RH Julio Teheran (1-5, 2.77 ERA) and on the hill for the Dodgers RH Kenta Maeda (4-3, 3.00) Teheran has been pitching his usual consistent baseball for the Braves. As usual the Braves, one of the worse teams in baseball have not given him any run support this year and this has been the case for a long time in Teheran starts. Teheran is getting much better as the year has gone on after going 0-3 with a 4.60 ERA in April he turned that around in May with a ERA of 1.38. On the road this year Teheran has been very good with a 2.20 ERA and a WHIP of 0.767. His opponent tonight Kenta Maeda has been starting to regress of late. In his last 3 starts he has a ERA of 5.14. Maeda has really struggled at Dodger Stadium with a 4.08 ERA and a WHIP of 1.256 this year. The Dodgers are coming home from a 7 game road trip and we like that situation as well to bet against them here. The Braves are playing their best baseball of the year winning 4 out of their last 7 games. Not bad for the worse team in baseball.
Dave Essler
Braves / Dodgers Over 7
It's difficult to fade someone (Lackey) that sits on an 0.97 WHIP for the season, but I'd certainly try and make that case first. He did beat the D-Backs earlier in the season but DID allow six runs in six innings - one of his only bad outings this season. I wonder if Arizona found some momentum winning in extras Wednesday and shutting out Houston Thursday. Clearly it's tough to back Bradley or really get a feel for what he brings yet, and he has thrown a lot of pitches early. I could make the case for a F5 under here, simply because it could take the Cubs a couple of times through the order to figure him out. Or not.
Harry Bondi
MILWAUKEE -110 over Philadelphia
Classic case of two teams going in the opposite direction. After a feel-good start to the season, the Phillies ship is sinking as they are losers of seven straight and nine of 10. The offense has been the culprit, scoring more than three runs in just three of its last 13 games. Meanwhile, Milwaukee got off to a sluggish start, but has won seven of 10. And we expect the Brewers to have the better pitcher on the mound for the entire game tonight since starter Jimmy Nelson has an ERA of 1.31 in his last three starts and the Brew Crew bullpen has been outstanding, especially on the road where it has posted a 2.86 ERA. Ride the streak against the Phillies.
GoodFella
Cincinnati TT Over 3.5
The Reds bats are really clicking right now & they are back home in another very hitter friendly ballpark tonight. A nice weather pattern & the ball does fly out of this tiny ballpark. Gio is a fly ball pitcher as he takes the ball for the Nationals this evening. I do expect these Reds to get a few off of Gio eventually & really expect them to plate at least 4 runs in this spot on Friday Night. I do lean to the over for the full game as well, but I like the Reds Team Total going over better. Best of luck if you choose to play along with us here.
Ian Cameron
New York at Baltimore
Play: Under 8
Baltimore’s Chris Tillman continues to pitch at a rock solid level and should be a candidate for MLB Comeback Player of the Year. Tillman currently sports a 2.92 ERA and an even better 2.04 ERA in seven home starts at Camden Yards in which Baltimore has gone a perfect 7-0. His strikeouts per 9 innings have jumped from 7.1% in 2015 to 10%. His is making better pitches and inducing a lot more swings and misses. Tillman has dominated the Yankees in seven career starts at Camden Yards having allowed three runs or less in each outing. That is bad news for a Yankees lineup that is slumping miserably right now. They were held to two runs or less in four straight games (5 runs total) before last night’s outburst against Detroit’s suspect bullpen. New York’s Nathan Eovaldi has the look of a ‘bet on’ hurler as well. Eovaldi has always been able to throw hard but appears to finally be harnessing his talents. He enters off of three straight dominant outings (2 runs in 18 IP) against Arizona, Toronto and Tampa Bay. The Yankees have also won each of his last five starts. He has historically fared well against the Orioles with seven runs allowed over 16.1 innings. The under is 4-1 in Eovaldi’s last five road starts and 6-1 in Tillman’s seven starts at home. And despite Betances, Miller, and Chapman all throwing last night, they were rested heading in and should be available tonight if needed. Britton is available for the Orioles as well. Play this one under the total.