Teddy Covers
New York at Baltimore
Play: Under 8
My clients and I have bet on Nathan Eovaldi in each of his last two starts, cashing a right side winner with the Yanks 6-0 win over Toronto and a wrong side winner when the Yanks beat the Rays 2-1 despite getting only one hit. Eovaldi was nothing short of outstanding in both of those outings, an emerging ace level hurler who is not yet fully respected by the betting marketplace.
Make no mistake about it. Eovaldi is now only tasked with throwing six innings thanks to the dominance of the Betances/Miller/Chapman relief trio in the seventh, eighth and ninth. Since Chapman joined the team following his early suspension, Eovaldi has gone 4-0 with a 2.05 ERA, striking out more batters (20) than hits allowed (17). Between strikeouts (8.5 K/9) and ground balls (54.3%), Eovaldi is a good fit for Camden Yards.
Each of Eovaldi’s last three starts have stayed Under the total with room to spare. He’s 6-4 to the Under this year, and it’s surely worth noting that the Yankees scored at least seven runs in all four Overs. I don’t expect that type of offensive outburst tonight, because this Yankees lineup has completely stopped hitting on the road. They’ve managed to plate only 19 runs through the first seven games of their current road trip. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg. For the full season, the Bronx Bombers are dead last in the major leagues in batting average (.223), on-base-percentage (.286) and slugging percentage (.331) on the highway, a consistent track record of offensive futility.
That’s bad news against Chris Tillman. His 7-1 record, 2.92 ERA and 3.78 FIP are all career bests. His 8.5 K/9 ratio and 10.0 swinging strike percentage are also career highs. He held the Yankees to five hits and one run in seven dominant innings against them in his lone previous start against New York this season. In seven previous home starts this year, Tillman has allowed a grand total of nine runs. And the Orioles bullpen behind him ranks #3 in baseball in ERA; a pen that is every bit as elite as the Yankees bullpen they are facing. Expect runs to be rather hard to come by here!
Scott Delaney
My free play is on the Washington Nationals in Cincinnati against the Reds, and we're playing the Nattys on the Run Line.
Gonzalez comes into this one looking to bounce back from his two worst starts of the season, as he's allowed 13 runs over 9-2/3 innings with 13 strikeouts and four walks. This matchup should give him confidence, as he has a 1.83 ERA against the Reds, his second-lowest versus any National League team.
Meanwhile, the Reds are winless in Finnegan’s past eight starts, while he’s gone 0-4 with a 4.96 ERA over that stretch. Though he is pitching on his own mound tonight, he runs up against a stellar lineup and could be yanked by the fouth inning.
Nationals on the Run Line.
3* NATIONALS -1.5
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Royals as the big dog against the Indians.
Why not?
I know Kansas City was edged by a run last night, but the Royals have still won 13 of their last 17 games overall!
Cleveland is just 3-4 their last 7, and while the pitching matchup tends to be in their favor of paper, this price is a little too heavy to lay with Danny Salazar.
Yes, a closer look at the pitching splits between Salazar and KC starter Edison Volquez do show a sizable advantage in favor of the Cleveland hurler, but the Royals have been really making tracks in the A.L. Central, and I see them evening the long weekend set with the win tonight.
Play on the Royals.
1* KANSAS CITY
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the Texas Rangers in their American League West clash with the Seattle Mariners, and I want you listing both scheduled starters: Yu Darvish and Taijuan Walker. This is going to be a mismatch by huge proportions, which is why we're going to lay the price.
Let's start with Darvish, who is in after striking out seven and picking up the win, while allowing one run, in his first start back from Tommy John surgery last Saturday against the hard-hitting Pittsburgh Pirates. I really like what I saw in his return, and am confident he is ready for another one, this being at home.
Darvish catches a Mariners team that is averaging 2.82 runs per nine innings when Walker is on the mound. That's the third-lowest run-support average in the American League among 52 qualifying pitchers. Darvish is 3-3 with a 4.47 ERA in eight career starts against the Mariners, and should look much better than that tonight.
Speaking of Walker, the 23-year-old right-hander might have been 2-0 with a 1.44 ERA in four April starts, but he also went 0-5 with a 4.91 mark in six May outings. He is in after allowing a season-high three home runs to the Twins in 4-1/3 innings on Sunday.
Take the Rangers tonight and list both.
2* RANGERS
Brad Wilton
My comp play winner for Friday is the Rays and Twins to land Over the total just like they did last night in the series opener.
Last night's Over makes it 6 in a row played between the teams since last season that have landed Over the posted price.
Tampa Bay has now played Overs in each of their last 4 games, and 6 of their last 8 games overall.
As for Minnesota, the Twins have seen 8 of their last 10 games land Over the total.
Tampa starter Jake Odorizzi has been very steady - 3.36 season ERA - but his counterpart Ricky Nolasco has been anything but, as evidenced by his 6.59 ERA over his last 3 starts, and the fact the Over stands at 7-1-2 for the season when he climbs the mound for Minnesota.
Rays-Twins to play Over on Friday.
4* TAMPA BAY-MINNESOTA OVER
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 64-54 run with free picks: Tampa Bay at MINNESOTA (+105)
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Tampa Bay Rays just suffered through a rough patch against the defending World Series champion Kansas City Royals, and then headed to Minneapolis for a battle with the Minnesota Twins. I liked the Twinkies to get it done against the struggling Rays last night, and once again I'm taking the Twins as my free winner against Tampa Bay, which has lost five in a row and hasn't tasted victory since May 24.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - I'm not listing the pitchers in this one, cause I don't think it will matter. But I will make mention that I think we're at an advantage in facing Tampa Bay's Jake Odorizzi, who has struggled a bit on the road, where his ERA is 4.50. The Rays' pitching has been atrocious. The Rays arrived after concluding a series in which their staff posted a 7.50 ERA with a .375 opponent batting average. It didn't look any better last night.
BOTTOM LINE is - I'm not going to list pitchers in this one, as the Twins will simply take advantage of the Rays' demise and enjoy some home cooking in this series lid-lifter. The Twins were just swept in Oakland, and while I know they're 6-18 at Target Field with losses in 12 of their last 14 and four straight series defeats, keep in mind the Twins won two of three in both series last season. Again, Tampa Bay has lost five straight and 11 of 13.
3* TWINS
Dave Price
Oakland A's +136
I'm going to take a shot with the Oakland A's as big road underdogs to the Houston Astros today. I believe they have the edge on the mound in this one, plus they are playing great baseball coming in. The A's are 5-0 in their last five games overall and have scored a combined 31 runs in the process. Jesse Hahn has pitched well with a 4.15 ERA through 5 starts this year. But what really stands out is that Hahn sports a 2.13 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in 2 lifetime starts vs. Houston. He pitched 6 2/3 shutout innings in his lone start against the Astros in 2016 on April 30. Houston is a woeful 6-11 (-9.5 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season. The A's are 8-3 in Hahn's last 11 starts.
Bruce Marshall
Pirates -1.5 +140
The Pirates were a bit banged up last night with Andrew McCutchen, David Freese, and Francisco Cervelli all having to leave a loss in Miami duw to injury. The status of each is unknown for tonight. But the Bucs will like their chances taking swings vs. the Angels' Jered Weaver, whose fastball has lost all of its former velocity and whose road ERA is 5.79, after a 6.01 ERA as a visitor last season. Edge to Pittsburgh's Francisco Liriano tonight.
Bob Balfe
Brewers -110
The Phillies have been producing only 2.6 runs per game at home this year which is just sad for a park built for runs. As of late, Philadelphia has been awful at scoring runs so when ever you can go against them at even money it is a no brainer. The Brewers bats are starting to get warmed up and if they can put up any multi run innings they should win this game. There is no margin for error with Philadelphia.
Nelly
Chicago White Sox +125
A seven-game slide in late May has put a big dent in the promising start for the White Sox this season but the team is still four games above .500 with a great road record while sitting just a 1.5 games behind the Royals in the AL Central. Chicago’s run differential is 40 runs superior to the Detroit squad that sits behind the White Sox in the standings and a Tigers squad that is just 2-6 in the last eight games looks suspect in the modest favorite role. Detroit is just 3-8 on the season vs. left-handed starting pitchers and while Carlos Rodon has had some inconsistency he has a very high ceiling and has made three strong starts in a row. His K/9 is 8.48 and he has posted decent results despite an elevated .327 BABIP. Detroit’s signing of Jordan Zimmermann looked amazing in April as he allowed two earned runs in five starts. In his last four starts the numbers have eroded with 30 hits and 15 earned runs allowed. His K/9 is below 6.00 and his xFIP is almost twice as high as his ERA as it seems unlikely that he’ll finish the season looking like one of the best pitchers in the AL as his conventional numbers currently read. The bullpen is a big area of strength in this matchup for the White Sox and Detroit had to squeeze in a make-up game yesterday as the team didn’t get a break following last week’s west coast road trip. Zimmermann will be watched closely returning from a groin strain as he last pitched May 22 and the recent scoring numbers are pretty similar for these offenses despite Detroit being valued like the stronger hitting team. Comerica Park has provided just a .500 record for the Tigers this season including a discouraging loss last night and Chicago has been the better team this season across the board and this pitching matchup is much closer than the records and ERAs suggest.