Free Picks for Friday, June 30th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
CHICAGO AT CINCINNATI
PLAY: CINCINNATI +105
If you like angles that win at a pretty good rate, there’s one that applies here. This is series sweep revenge for Cincinnati. What that means is that the last time these teams met this season, the Cubs swept the series. So there’s payback on the minds of the Reds as they open this weekend set on Friday evening.
For those who want to see the e evidence for themselves, check out the results for this season on this simple little theory. Go back a few years and see how well it’s performed overall.
Beyond the angle, the Cubs have been a mediocre road team and have had trouble producing offense against righties when away from Wrigley. Cincinnati has dumped badly following their surprising April, but they are still in possession of a winning record at home. I’m taking the home dog Reds tonight.
Cappers Club
Twins vs. Royals
Play:Twins +101
The Minnesota Twins and the Kansas City Royals start a weekend series, and as the underdogs, the Twins have a ton of value.
On the mound for the Twins is Ervin Santana who had a few rough starts, but bounced back in a big way in his last start.
He went six innings against the Indians striking out seven and allowing zero runs. He already has one start against the Royals this year, and was dominate.
He went seven innings only giving up two hits and one runs. I would expect he will have no issues slowing down the Royals in this one.
Some trends to note. Twins are 6-1 in Santanas last 7 road starts. Twins are 8-1 in the last 9 meetings.
I expect this game will be a low scoring game and but the Twins will score enough runs to come out ahead.
Ben Burns
Twins vs. Royals
Play: Under 8
Recent form displayed by these two starting pitchers suggests we’ll have a bit of a “pitchers duel” on our hands in this one. Ervin Santana (10-4, 2.80 ERA) comes in off a gem against the hard-hitting Indians on Sunday, going six scoreless while striking out seven. Santana had struggled a bit prior to that, but he’s back on track with 10 wins for the year to go along with a 2.80 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 6.9 K/9 ratio (note that Santana has been at his best on the road as well this season, 6-1 with a minuscule 1.50 ERA.) Jason Vargas (11-3, 2.29) gave up two runs off eight hits while striking out two over seven innings in the Royals’ victory over Toronto on Saturday. Vargas has posted a winning decision in each of his last six trips to the hill and has been very sharp at home this year by going 6-1 with a tiny 1.92 ERA.
Jesse Schule
Phillies vs. Mets
Play: Mets -1½
The Mets return home to face the Phillies Friday, and they are winners of five of their last six. The Phillies are coming off back to back wins at Seattle, but had lost 10 of their previous 11 road games. I like the Mets to win big behind Jacob deGrom in the series opener. deGrom (7-3, 3.71 ERA) allowed one run on four hits, striking out seven in eight innings in a win at San Francisco his last time out. He totally owns the Phillies, with a record of 4-0 and a 2.42 ERA in his last seven starts against them. Philadelphia will hand the ball to rookie right-hander Ben Lively, who was hammered by the D'Backs his last time out. He was torched for five runs on seven hits over 5 1/3 innings in the loss at Arizona. The Phillies have lost 40 of their last 53 road games, and four straight when Lively starts. They are 0-8 in their last eight versus the Mets when deGrom starts.
Scott Spreitzer
Giants vs. Pirates
Play:Pirates -122
Gerrit Cole was struggling badly before tweaking his deliver following a bad start on June 8. The right-hander has posted a 1.35 ERA & 0.90 WHIP in three starts since. I expect the hot streak to continue for Cole, facing a SFO team that's won just 13 of 43 road games this season. The Giants will counter with Johnny Cueto, who's ERA is a decent 3.81 in June, but with a hefty 1.43 WHIP I'm not quite a believer at this point. Cueto has been knocked around on the road this season, including allowing 13 home runs in 55 IP, for a 2.13 HR's per 9 IP ratio. He's had his troubles with Andrew McCutchen, who's hitting .397 in June. I don't believe Cueto will receive the kind of offensive support he will need in tonight's contest.
Rob Vinciletti
New York vs. Houston
Play: Houston -170
The Astros won 3 of 4 vs NY earlier in the year and are averaging nearly 7 runs per game the past week. They fit a powerful database system that has won 27 of 35 times playing on home favorites in this range that are off a home favored win by 5 or more runs vs an opponent that was a road favorite in their last game like NY. The Yanks are 5-13 on the road with a total that is 8 to 8.5. Houston is 42-16 vs right handers. Pineda pitches for NY and he has a 6.25 road Era and has struggled in his last 3 starts with a 7.47 era. Mccullers for Houston is 6-0 at home with a 1.95 era and is 2-0 with a 0.75 era vs the Yankees. Look for Houston to win this one.
Zack Cimini
Phillies at Mets
Pick: Over
Jacob Degrom looks to close out June with his fourth consecutive stellar start. In his last three starts he has allowed just two runs. Furthermore he has pitched eight innings or more in all of those starts. Couple that with the Phillies issues of scoring and the draw of the total may be on the under. Yet, look for this to trickle just over the total of eight.
Jim Feist
Mariners at Angels
Pick: Over
This is a good home run park and Seattle is in town with a strong offense. The Over is 10-3-1 in the Mariners last 14 during game 1 of a series, plus 16-5 over following an off day. Ariel Miranda is on the mound with a 6.56 ERA on the road. The Over is 25-9-3 in Angels last 37 home games vs. a team with a losing record. And the Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
Marc Lawrence
Minnesota at Kansas City
Pick: Minnesota
Edges - Twins: Santana 6-1 with 1.50 ERA and 0.94 WHIP away team starts this season… Royals: 1-8 last nine games in this series… With the Twins 10-1 away in Game One of a series this season, we recommend a 1* play on Minnesota.
Strike Point Sports
Tampa Bay at Baltimore
Play: Over 10.5
Baltimore has won four of the six games they have played against Tamp Bay this season and neither team had any problems scoring runs in their 3-game series last weekend. These teams combined to score 44 runs over three games in Tampa and I think the first game of this series will be a high-scoring affair as well. Chris Tillman has been terrible this year with opponents batting .365 off him overall. He allowed 5 runs over 4.1 innings in an 8-5 Baltimore win in his only start against the Rays this season and he has allowed 5 runs or more in his last 6 starts. Jacob Faria will be pitching for Tampa and the Orioles scored 3 runs off him, with two of those being home runs in an 8-3 Baltimore win on June 24th and I think Baltimore's offense will be able to produce in this matchup as well. I like the over in this matchup.
Indian Cowboy
Minnesota at Kansas City
Play: Kansas City
This Friday evening we like the Royals, who are streaking right now, over the Minnesota Twins. The Royals send their ace to the mound in Jason Vargas, who has been nothing short of phenomenal and has been highly clutch for this team. As we write this analysis note the Royals are 7-3 over their last 10 and are sitting at .500, which is a far cry for a team that was well below .500 and looked like this team was done before mid May came around. Vargas has pitched inspired baseball and put together 6 straight quality starts, including helping his team win its last 6 games. Combine that with the fact that Santana pitches for the Twins and he has a tendency for classic let downs after not yielding a run to the Indians. The last few times he has put together a quality start he has a tendency to struggle in the next outing. For example, after a quality start against Houston this year he gave up 7 runs in 4 innings to the Angels or shutting out the Giants to 0 earned runs to his next start giving up 5 runs to Seattle in 5 innings. Look for a letdown from Santana and a strong performance for Vargas as the Royals keep playing quality baseball.
Alan Harris
Montreal vs. Edmonton
Play: Over 51.5
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Montreal Alouettes hit the road to take on the Eskimos at Commonwealth Stadium in Edmonton, AB on Friday night. The Eskimos have posted an 8-2 record to the over in their last ten games following a straight up win and they have gone an excellent 16-6 to the over in their last 22 games where they were listed as the favorite. They have also gone up and over the number in five of their last seven games played on a Friday night and they are an impressive 10-4 to the over in their last fourteen home games. The Alouettes have been an over team as well in the spot they are in on Friday as they have gone 4-1 to the over in their last five games following a straight up win. Throw in the fact that these two teams have gone 6-1 to the over in their last seven head to head meetings at Commonwealth and 8-2-1 to the over in their last eleven overall and that’s where we’ll have our play as we expect both defenses to struggle a bit in Edmonton on Friday night.
Doc's Sports
Minnesota at Kansas City
Play: Kansas City -113
The Kansas City Royals are somehow doing it again. They're in the playoff mix in the American League despite a depleted roster and rumors of some big guns getting dealt at the deadline. The Twins are currently in the lead for the second wild card, with a slew of teams right behind them. The Royals are one of those squads, just 2.5 games behind. Things are starting to unravel for Minnesota, as they usually do around midseason. I like the pitching matchup here for Kansas City.
Power Sports
Minnesota vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City -122
We have what appears to be - on paper at least - an outstanding pitching matchup here w/ Santana vs. Vargas. But sometimes looks can be deceiving. From monitoring the early morning line movement, it certainly looks like sharp money has decided that KC & the Over is the way to go here. I'm set endorse the first leg of that potential parlay, that being the side as I still have MAJOR questions concerning Minnesota's sustainability.
The Indians (reigning AL Champs) were expected to "run away" w/ the Central this year, but here we are on the final day of June and the Twins trail them by just 1.5 games. But that's misleading to say the least as Minnesota has actually been outscored by 48 runs this season while Cleveland is +56 in run differential. So, the Twins should feel VERY fortunate right now to be three games above .500. A 7-1 record vs. the Royals has certainly helped, but how long can they continue that? Plus, an overall 24-12 road record is due to get worse as well.
Santana pitched very well his last time out, shutting out Cleveland, although he did allow nine hits. But he struggled mightily in three of his four starts previous to that one, giving up five or more runs. It's largely been feast or famine for the Twins pitcher this year and it was certainly the former when he faced the Royals back on Opening Day. But Vargas is 6-1 at home this year w/ a 1.92 ERA and 1.064 WHIP and that should prove too difficult to overcome. Santana is just 6-9 w/ a 4.45 ERA in 22 career starts vs. KC.