Will Rogers
Chicago at Cincinnati
Pick: Chicago -114
The set-up: The 40-39 Chicago Cubs are just one game above .500 but they’re also just one game behind 42-39 Milwaukee in the NL Central. Chicago rallied for three runs in the top of the 9th on Thursday, with the 5-4 win over the Nats earning them a split of the four-game series with the NL East leaders. The Cubs won last night with three starters on the shelf, as Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist are on the DL and reigning NL MVP Kris Bryant is day-to-day with a sprained ankle. Meanwhile, the Reds had won three of four following a stretch of 13 losses in 14 games before but were routed 11-3 in the finale of their three-game set against visiting Milwaukee on Thursday, leaving Cincinnati 33-45 and in last place in the NL Central (7 1/2 games back of the Brewers).
The pitching matchup: Mike Montgomery (1-4 & 2.50 ERA) gets the start for Chicago and Scott Feldman (6-5 & 4.07 ERA) for the Reds. Montgomery has posted back-to-back quality starts and he has not allowed more than three runs in any of his four outings since moving into the rotation on June 9. However, he's 1-1 in those starts with the Cubs going 1-3. Montgomery has not made a start vs. Cincy, although he does own six relief appearances versus the Reds, including two this season, allowing three runs (all in his last appearance against them on May 17) over 6 2/3 innings. Feldman has recorded quality starts in two straight outings and three of his last four. He's 4-1 over his last five decisions, which covers seven starts (team is 5-2). Feldman faced the Cubs for the first time in his career this past May 17th in Chicago and was roughed up for seven runs (five earned) in just 2 2/3 innings to take the 7-5 loss (16.85 ERA).
The pick: Most keep waiting for the Cubs to "go on a run" and could this be a good place to start? The Cubs have won 23 of their last 28 meetings with the Reds, winning eight of the last nine series. Montgomery has allowed a modest 43 hits in 57 2/3 innings and opponents are batting just .213 against him. I'll bite on the Cubs.
Scott Rickenbach
New York vs. Houston
Play: New York +156
The Yankees are off of a loss late last night but I still like the value that is being offered on the Yanks in this spot. New York had won 2 of their 3 prior games and had averaged 7 runs per game in their 4 prior games. The Yankees are in their "sweet spot" here in terms of the money line range as they are a perfect 4-0 this season as a road dog in a money line range of +125 to +175. Overall, the Yankees have excelled against good teams as the Yanks are 22-9 this season in their games against teams with a winning record! As strong as the Astros have been this season you may be surprised to read this but Houston is only 13-12 (DOWN $4,700) as a home fave in a range of -125 to -175 on the money line. The past three seasons combined the Astros are DOWN $14,100 as a home favorite in this same price range. I know that Lance McCullers has been great this season for the Astros but his 1.04 WHIP is only slightly better than that of Michael Pineda as the Yanks right-hander has a 1.22 WHIP on the season. There is a lot of "upset" line value in this one with a quality road dog and I won't hesitate to step in.
Brad Diamond
Atlanta vs. Oakland
Play: Atlanta +154
Another situation where the public seems to be overreacting. Granted the Braves have slowed up a bit after facing outstanding hurlers Lamet and Perdomo this week at San Diego. However, tonight's starter Foltynewicz (5-5, 4.10) of Atlanta has won 5 straight. And, Atlanta is 3-0 off a shutout loss. One of their hot bats young Adams is questionable for this evening. Oakland starts wily right-hand pitcher Gray (3-3, 4.45). Last time out Gray threw a gem at CWS winning 5-3 while throwing 7 innings allowing one earned run and 4 hits. In a similar effort in May Gray won 4-1 against visiting Miami(?). Then the very next start he was bombed by Cleveland. So, overall, I really don't have much confidence in laying a heavy number considering the Braves lead 4-0 in the series. The A's comes into play 9-20 L29 games, 11-26 in game #1 of a series and 2-10 in interleague games at home. Also, Alonso for Oakland playing status can't be verified this morning.
Rocketman
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks -138
The Colorado Rockies travel to Arizona to take on the Diamondbacks on Friday night. Colorado is 47-34 SU overall this year while Arizona comes in with a 50-30 SU overall record on the season. Jon Gray has a 6.43 ERA on the road this season. Robbie Ray is 8-3 with a 2.87 ERA overall this year and 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA his last 3 starts. Gray is 0-1 with a 6.57 ERA in his 2 career starts vs Arizona. Colorado is 0-7 last 7 games overall where they are scoring only 2.6 runs per game while allowing 7.1 runs per game. Arizona is scoring 6.1 runs per game at home this year, 5.3 runs per game against right handed starters, 5.6 runs per game at night and 5.8 runs per game against division opponents. Arizona is allowing only 3.9 runs per game overall this year and 3.8 runs per game at night this season. Arizona is 30-12 this year when playing at home. We'll recommend a small play on Arizona tonight!
Brandon Lee
Indians vs. Tigers
Play:Indians -119
Cleveland is worth a look here as a short road favorite against the Tigers. Anibal Sanchez has pitched well in his first two starts since moving to the rotation from the bullpen, but I just don't see it lasting. I think he implodes here and that will get us into a terrible Detroit bullpen sooner rather than later. Indians will send out Josh Tomlin, who is one of their worst starters, but he's better than the numbers would suggest and the Tigers offense is pretty average. Tomlin and the Indians have gone 12-3 in his last 15 road starts against a division opponent and Cleveland is 15-4 as a team on the road after playing 2 or more consecutive games at home.
Ray Monohan
Rangers vs. White Sox
Play: Rangers -118
The Rangers and the White Sox face off on Friday night, and with the Rangers as only slight favorites they have all kinds of value. Mike Pelfrey is on the mound for the White Sox and he has had a very up and down season. He has been used out of the bullpen, and as a starter, and it has really messed up his success the last few appearances.
In his last start against the Athletics he went 4.2 innings and gave up three earned runs and five walks. The Rangers will stay very patient against Pelfrey in this game and that will lead Pelfrey into trouble because of the walks. I think the Ranges will turn those walks into runs and chase him early from the game. Some trends to note. White Sox are 1-5 in their last 6 overall. White Sox are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Cappers Club
Twins vs. Royals
Play:Twins +101
The Minnesota Twins and the Kansas City Royals start a weekend series, and as the underdogs, the Twins have a ton of value.
On the mound for the Twins is Ervin Santana who had a few rough starts, but bounced back in a big way in his last start.
He went six innings against the Indians striking out seven and allowing zero runs. He already has one start against the Royals this year, and was dominate.
He went seven innings only giving up two hits and one runs. I would expect he will have no issues slowing down the Royals in this one.
Some trends to note. Twins are 6-1 in Santanas last 7 road starts. Twins are 8-1 in the last 9 meetings.
I expect this game will be a low scoring game and but the Twins will score enough runs to come out ahead.
Tony George
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks -138
The Rockies just got hammered by the Giants and were swept 3-0 in that series. Fading Grey who takes the hill for the Rockies tonight with a road ERA this year of over 6, and frankly the Rockies offense in a slump. D Backs no joke this year and have 50 wins to date and I like their chances with Robbie Ray toeing the rubber at home, he is hot and in total sync. Cheap line in what I see as a mis-match tonight, especially on the mound.
Doc's Sports
Rays vs. Orioles
Play: Over 11
Baltimore has won four of the six games they have played against Tamp Bay this season and neither team had any problems scoring runs in their 3-game series last weekend. These teams combined to score 44 runs over three games in Tampa and I think the first game of this series will be a high-scoring affair as well. Chris Tillman has been terrible this year with opponents batting .365 off him overall. He allowed 5 runs over 4.1 innings in an 8-5 Baltimore win in his only start against the Rays this season and he has allowed 5 runs or more in his last 6 starts. Jacob Faria will be pitching for Tampa and the Orioles scored 3 runs off him, with two of those being home runs in an 8-3 Baltimore win on June 24th and I think Baltimore's offense will be able to produce in this matchup as well. I like the over in this matchup.
Doc's Sports
Rays vs. Orioles
Play: Over 11
Baltimore has won four of the six games they have played against Tamp Bay this season and neither team had any problems scoring runs in their 3-game series last weekend. These teams combined to score 44 runs over three games in Tampa and I think the first game of this series will be a high-scoring affair as well. Chris Tillman has been terrible this year with opponents batting .365 off him overall. He allowed 5 runs over 4.1 innings in an 8-5 Baltimore win in his only start against the Rays this season and he has allowed 5 runs or more in his last 6 starts. Jacob Faria will be pitching for Tampa and the Orioles scored 3 runs off him, with two of those being home runs in an 8-3 Baltimore win on June 24th and I think Baltimore's offense will be able to produce in this matchup as well. I like the over in this matchup.
Larry Wallace
Dodgers vs. Padres
Play: Dodgers -1½
Alex Wood is 7-0 this year with a 2.02 ERA. Wood is also 2-0 with a 1.91 ERA on the road. Clayton Richard is 5-7 this year with a 4.42 ERA. The Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 games that were played on the road. The Padres are 3-7 i in their last 10 games.
Jimmy Boyd
Rays vs. Orioles
Play: Rays -119
I really like the value here with Tampa Bay, as I look to continue to fade Baltimore's Chris Tillman until he shows he can put together a strong outing. He faced these Rays in his last start and gave up 5 runs in 4 1/3 innings. That was the six straight start, where he allowed 5 or more runs. He now has a 8.39 ERA and 2.182 WHIP in 10 starts. Given how good this guy was in the past, I just feel that there has to be something wrong physically with him.
I don't see the Orioles scoring enough to make this a game. Tampa Bay counters here with Jacob Faria, who has been sensational since joining the rotation. Faria has 2.10 ERA and 0.974 WHIP in 4 starts and has actually been sharper on the road, where he owns a 1.35 ERA in 2 starts. He limited Baltimore to 3 runs on just 5 hits with 7 K's in 6 innings in his last start.
Jack Jones
Rangers vs. White Sox
Play: Rangers -111
The Texas Rangers played well over the past month to get back to .500, but they've lost two straight to drop to 39-40 on the season. I look for them to take Game 1 of this series against the Chicago White Sox, who have gong 3-8 in their last 11 games overall and sit at 34-44 on the year.
Austin Bibens-Dirkx has held his own since joining the rotation over the past month for the Rangers. He has gone 2-0 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.014 WHIP in four starts, including 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in two road starts.
Mike Pelfrey is 3-6 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.331 WHIP in 12 starts this season for the White Sox, including 1-3 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.463 WHIP in six home starts. Pelfrey has been rocked by the Rangers throughout his career, going 1-2 with a 5.96 ERA and 1.465 WHIP in five starts against them.
The Rangers are 15-6 in their last 21 vs. a team with a losing record. The White Sox are 4-9 in their last 13 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Texas is 82-43 in its last 125 vs. a starting pitcher who lasts less than 5 innings per start.
Teddy Davis
Tampa Bay at Baltimore
Play: Baltimore +111
The real question here is if Tillman is really that bad. While he hasn't shown much I know the price is really starting to play a part in that now which I think you have to buy him here. He just got rocked by the Rays on the road so you know he does want revenge here as well.
While Faria has pitched well in 4 games winning 3 of those and putting up impressive numbers I'm just not buying he can keep that up nor is he that good. The Orioles did manage 5 hits in 6 innings off him including two home runs. I think they get the better of him the 2nd time around tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
B.C. Lions +110 over TORONTO
The Argonauts were the surprise team of Week 1, blowing out the rival Tiger-Cats 32-15 at home at BMO Field. Expectations were low for Toronto coming into the game but quarterback Ricky Ray turned back the clock and had a career day in a career full of them, throwing for over 500 yards and completing an absurd 78% of his passes. Toronto's defense pitched a near shutout with the Ti-Cats only touchdown coming on a punt return. The win, while convincing, was just one game and the margin of victory should have been much greater. There were many holes in the Argo's game in Week 1 but the biggest was on special teams. In what could have been a game-changing play, a blocked Argos field goal was returned for a touchdown on the final play of the first half that tuned what should have been an 18-4 lead into a 15-12 lead. After Hamilton's successful two-point attempt it was a 15 point swing. A couple of dropped balls added to the points Toronto left on the table. As perfect as Ray looked to be on paper, it was not a flawless performance for the Argos. They will have to be much better if they want to hang with the high-octane Lions.
The Lions highly touted offense stumbled out of the gate in their season opener at B.C. Place but finished strong in a loss to the Eskimos. While B.C. had trouble moving the ball early, they were able to make some halftime adjustments and came out with a much better game plan after the break. Unfortunately for the Leos, they had to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns. Despite all that, the Lions still had a chance to take a lead late in the game but kicker Ty Long missed the 32-yard convert in the final minutes. It was one of those games where whoever had the ball in their hands at the end was going to win it and the Esks kicked the game-winning field goal as time expired.
It's easy to overreact to one week and the Argos are the prime target in Week 2. The Boatmen went from a +3½ point home pooch in Week 1 to a 2½ or -3-point favorite this week. The Argos also come into this game after capping off Week 1 on Sunday but the CFL's awkward scheduling has them back on the field just five days later. There's no way around the fact that the Argos are old at some key positions. The combined age of their best offensive players in Week 1, Ray and receiver S.J. Green are 69 and both of those guys have a ton of CFL miles on their well-worn treads. Also working against the Boatmen today will be the crowd (or lack thereof) at BMO Field. To the casual viewer watching Week 1 it looked like a home game for Hamilton, as Steel City was well represented. Tonight, it will be a much different story because there could be fewer than 10,000 in the stands at BMO. It's Red Seat Night again in Toronto.
We’re all about playing value. Over and under-reactions in football are a big part of our criterion. If this game was the opener for both teams, B.C. would be a six-point choice here. Again, Toronto goes from being a dog to Hamilton to a favorite over the superior Lions and the Lions go from being a four-point choice over a very good Edmonton squad to a dog against the Argos. That can’t be but it is based on one week. Too much emphasis is being put on Toronto’s win over Hamilton last week but trust us when we tell you that the Ticats came in unprepared and not ready for the season opener. Hamilton was pure junk and could not have looked worse. Now B.C. has a great opportunity to expose the Argos for being what they truly are, which is a much weaker team than the public perceives. Lions outright is the call.
EDMONTON -8½ over Montreal
The Eskimos' Week 1 win in B.C. was impressive for a number of reasons. Edmonton was able to stymy the hyped Lions offense while quarterback Mike Reilly and crew put up some impressive numbers of their own. Reilly completed 70% of his passes for over 300 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. Reilly didn't even have to rely on star receiver Adarious Bowman, who only had two catches for 13 yards. The loss of Darrell Walker to the NFL was no bother either, as both Brandon Zylstra and Duke Williams stepped up huge and combined for 11 catches and 262 yards in his absence. Edmonton’s offense now takes a massive step down in class when facing Montreal’s defense and the Eskies defense also takes a massive step down in class when facing Montreal’s offense.
Sports are so interesting because what one set of eyes might see is totally different than what another set of eyes see. With a new QB, new coaches and a new system, some folks saw the Alouettes victory over Saskatchewan last week as a momentum builder while we saw it as a horrible and very lucky home win over a nothing opponent. Fact is, a supposedly motivated Dariant Durant looked anything but motivated in another one of his lousy performances. Durant looked terrible in throwing for just 233 yards. Sure he had two touchdowns with no picks but in the CFL that stat line is going to lose 90% of the time. Remember, Montreal was a 7-point choice at home over Saskatchewan and were the second best team on the field in all four quarters. The Roughies could not capitalize on the Al's defensive shortcomings but Montreal likely isn’t going to be so lucky with the CFL's number one offense from 2016 waiting for them in Edmonton.
Look it, you can’t turn cat shit into caviar. Montreal was a mess last year and they actually look worse this year. While we understand that it is just one game, there is a difference between having good talent and playing poorly to having little talent and playing poorly. The Als are the latter. The transition period is going to take longer than a week or two while the Eskies are an established group that their coach said, “is the deepest team he’s had since he’s been here”. Edmonton has tremendous talent throughout. They are a legit 1-0 playing a team that is not a legit 1-0 and when it’s all said and done, the mismatch in every area in Edmonton’s favor will be revealed on the scoreboard. Eight points is not enough and 21 points might not be enough either.