SPORTS WAGERS
ARIZONA -1½ +149 over Colorado
A season of extreme numbers by Robbie Rays calls for some analyzing. Robbie Ray has an overall ERA of 2.73 after 15 starts. When he pitches at home however, his ERA is 4.73 ERA and his WHIP is 1.40. Truth be told, he owns great skills at home too. An inflated 19% hr/f is the reason for his bad ERA there, and his WHIP has been elevated due to problems finding the strike zone (40% ball %). On the road, his control improves (37% ball% and his skills become electric. Robbie Ray has 119 K’s in 94 innings. He has a BB/K split of 14/45 over his last five starts covering 34 innings. Ray’s success at home hinges on learning how to limit hard contact but he’s close and he’s good. Ray now catches the Rockies at a perfect time because since they were absolutely torched in Los Angeles, the Rocks have not been the same. They were even swept in San Fran afterward.
We have been fading starters off layoffs and we’re not about to stop here, as Jonathan Gray takes the hill for the first time since mid-April. A navicular stress fracture (in the middle of the foot) was the source of Gray’s most recent malady and the month-long course of action was a walking boot followed by rest. Gray has not been able to stay healthy. After layoffs in the past, he’s been horrible. He had a rough first start (11.25 ERA, 2.00 WHIP) to the season and this is like another first start. Gray has breakout potential but that’s a story for another time because this chapter is all about fading a pitcher that hasn’t been able to stay on the hill for prolonged periods. As a result, he is still very much a work in progress that is in real danger of getting rocked here.
Boston +125 over TORONTO
At Fenway, Doug Fister made his season debut last week against the Angels and he was solid in six full innings with six strikeouts, three walks, three earned runs allowed, a 64% first-pitch strike rate, a 10% swing and miss rate and 50% grounders. Anytime you wager on a pitcher like Fister, it’s a risk but it’s something we can’t concern ourselves with because Marco Estrada as the chalk, is a bigger risk. Incidentally, it may surprise you to learn that Estrada is older than Fister and the only difference between the two is that Estrada got luckier over an extended period of time.
Marco Estrada has one very good pitch that he rode to success for two full years. He used his changeup as much as a knuckleballer uses his one pitch and for some strange reason, Estrada kept getting outs. Over the course of his other eight years in the majors, Estrada was nothing more than an afterthought that was traded by the Brewers after being demoted to the ‘pen and that originally didn’t make the Jays rotation out of spring training. Prior to winning 13 games for the Blue Jays in 2015, the most victories that Estrada had previously recorded in a full year was seven. Over the last five years, no pitcher in baseball has a lower groundball rate than Estrada’s 33%. Since the beginning of May, Estrada’s groundball rate of 28% and his line drive-rate of 29% are both bottom three marks in the game among pitchers with six or more starts over that span. During his successful/lucky run of two years, those fly-balls that are leaving the park this season were not then. Throw in Estrada’s 2.08 WHIP over that same span and it’s no mystery as to why the wheels have fallen off, something we insisted was inevitable. ERA’s lie and wins and losses lie but when you look under the hood, you get the truth. Estrada is not unique, as guys like Dan Haren, Bartolo Colon, Hector Santiago and others can and have outpitched their skills for extended periods of time. Eventually, water finds it level and that is what is occurring now with Estrada. If Estrada wins here, he’ll have gotten lucky again. If Doug Fister wins here, he’ll have gotten lucky too. The difference is that the Red Sox, who are in better form than the Jays, are taking back a price. That’s our cue to step in.
Otto Sports
Boston at Toronto
Play: Under 9.5
The last two seasons have been nothing but "extremes" for Toronto's Marco Estrada. In 2016, he pitched to a 3.48 ERA but given his high fly ball rate, was somewhat fortunate to allow only 23 home runs. This year, Estrada's K rate is up, walk rate down, but ERA hovering around 5.00 thanks to a .333 BABIP. If you look at Estrada's career numbers, because he surrenders so many fly ball outs, his BABIP is always amongst the lowest in MLB. So while Estrada's ERA is a run and a half higher than last season, he’s arguably pitched better. Note than one of his best starts of the season came against Boston: 6 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks. Doug Fister was signed out of necessity due to various injuries to Boston's starting staff. After a career year in 2014 (2.41 ERA), Fister, like a lot of arms north of 30, began to decline. And it made it especially tough for him when he moved from Washington to Houston where last season he finished with a 4.64 ERA and even higher 4.75 FIP. Fister however made a positive impression in his first start -- a favorable one -- where he went 6 innings and allowed 3 ERs against Los Angeles. Most notably, Fister's velocity was as high as it's been since 2013 and it showed as he missed 11 bats and struck out six. That was more swinging strikes than he had in any of his 32 starts last season. Pitching for a job -- and essentially his career -- there's a chance Fister puts together a string of quality starts. We'll look to play this game under the total.
Teddy Covers
New York at Houston
Play: Houston -165
The Astros are 12-2 in Lance McCullers 14 previous starts this season, making him #2 in MLB in profitability among big league starters this year, behind only Clayton Kershaw. And there’s absolutely no reason to think that McCullers won’t be a bet-on hurler against the Yankees again tonight.
McCullers dominated this lineup in the Bronx last month, throwing six strong innings of four hit shutout ball. This isn’t new or different – McCullers advanced metric numbers are right there with Chris Sale and Alex Wood, two of the best pitchers in baseball this year. With a strikeout rate of more than 11 K’s per nine innings and a ground ball rate of higher than 60%, McCullers is in truly elite territory. Pitching behind one of the most potent lineups in baseball (21 runs in their just concluded three game set against the A’s), with a rock solid bullpen to close out the game behind him, McCullers is in prime positon to continue his winning ways.
Michael Pineda has one fatal flaw that has doomed him to mediocrity – his vulnerability to the gopher ball. Pineda’s got great advanced metric stats, with one exception – his home run to fly ball ratio, right there with bottom tier hurlers like James Shields. Pineda has allowed home runs on more than 22% of his fly balls this year, bad news against the hot hitting Astros lineup. New York’s bullpen just suffered several hiccups in their series against the White Sox, and last night’s long rain delay means the Yanks are likely to be a tired team today. Throw in a 2-8 skid on the highway for the Bronx Bombers and this is clearly chalk worth laying!
ASA
Philadelphia vs. New York
Play: Philadelphia +1½
The Mets are a big favorite here as you would expect but this is a Mets team that has won just 6 of their last 14 games. Also, New York has lost 4 of their last 6 games at home. The Phillies are having another tough season but they've suffered a lot of tight losses in recent weeks. The point is that Philadelphia has been playing plenty of competitive baseball and there is value here with the Phillies available at plus money on the run line. Not only is Philadelphia available at +1.5 runs but you don't have to lay any juice to get that. The Phillies are off of back to back outright wins and their current run at +1.5 runs is quite impressive as they've been ultra competitive since mid-June. Philadelphia is 12-5 at +1.5 runs their last 17 games! The Phillies are starting Ben Lively tonight and he has a respectable 3,90 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in his five starts this season. Jacob deGrom has been throwing very well for the Mets and gets the start here. Though he beat the Phillies earlier this season it was a one-run win. The Mets have struggled at home overall this season and, specifically they are 2-4 as a home favorite price from -175 to -250 and New York is 4-8 in home games where the total is set at 8 or 8.5 runs. Look for a tight one here and grab the value with the extra run and a half as well as a plus money return in this one.
ANDRE RAMIREZ
Braves vs. A's
Play: A's -152
The A’s come in off a tough series in Houston, while the Braves have been playing well of late. Atlanta is just 17-20 on the road, while the A’s have goon 22-17 at home and they have an edge on the mound with Gray over Foltynewicz. Mike Foltynewicz has a 6.91 ERA in his last three starts and he has gone 1-3 with a 4.62 ERA on the road, while Sonny Gray has gone 2-1 with a 4.11 ERA here at home. In his career, he has gone 22-19 with a 3.63 ERA here at the Coliseum. The Braves really need to play well in this series, but the Braves are 1-7 in their last eight games against the AL West and the A’s will take advantage of that.
DAVE PRICE
Pittsburgh Pirates -128
The San Francisco Giants are just 13-30 on the road this season. Johnny Cueto has struggled on the road to the tune of a 3-5 record and a 4.58 ERA in 9 starts away from home. Gerrit Cole is 2-2 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 7 home starts this year, and 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in his last 3 starts overall. Cole certainly enjoys facing the Giants as he's 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts against them. The Giants are 19-44 in their last 63 games following a win. The Pirates are 5-1 n Cole's last 6 starts. Pittsburgh is 54-25 in its last 79 against NL West teams. The Pirates are 4-0 in Cole's last 4 starts vs. San Francisco.
JOHN MARTIN
New York Yankees +150
The New York Yankees are a big underdog today for one of the first times all season. I think they're worth a bet here at this +150 price Friday. Michael Pineda is 7-4 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 15 starts this year with 88 K's in 87 1/3 innings. He is having a nice season overall and is fully capable of shutting down the Astros. He has given up just 4 runs and 14 base runners in 13 2/3 innings while striking out 15 in his last two starts against Houston. The Yankees are 9-3 as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season. New York is 11-5 in its last 16 meetings in Houston.
Eric Schroeder
My free play for tonight is on the Pittsburgh Pirates, against the visiting San Francisco Giants. And I want you listing Gerritt Cole over Johnny Cueto.
True, the Giants have seemingly improved and look better than they did last month. But they still have the second-worst record in the majors, and I like the way Cole has performed of late. He steps to the hill after producing a third straight strong outing, against the Cardinals on Saturday.
The fiery, hard-throwing right-hander limited the Redbirds to one run over six innings. Cole has posted a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts, and comes in with a career 1.59 ERA in four starts against the Giants.
He will outshine Cueto, who I know is in after a one-run, seven-inning effort versus the Mets, which dropped his ERA from 4.42 to 4.20. But he also has just one win in his last five starts. His troops just haven't rallied around him like you'd expect, and that will be a problem once again versus Cole.
Take the Bucs and list both.
5* PIRATES
Jack Brayman
Now on a 14-7 run with my complimentary plays. and my free play for Friday night takes us to Queens, where I'm playing the New York Mets over the Philadelphia Phillies. With the line being so high, I'll play this on the Run Line.
I like the way New York's righty has performed, as he's in the midst of what some are saying has been the best span of his career. deGrom went 3-0 with a 0.72 ERA and a 0.76 WHIP in his last three starts, and tonight he'll stifle the fifth-worst lineup in the bigs, as Philadelphia's .242 batting average ranks 26th.
Philly's young right-hander finally touched down on Earth, after starting his big league career with four consecutive quality starts. On Saturday, against the D-backs, he was tagged for five runs (four earned) on seven hits over 5.1 innings of labor.
I'm going to lay the run line with the Mets in this one.
1* METS -1.5
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the frustrated Chicago Cubs, who are just looking for a punching bag to exert aggression, and this weekend it will be the Cincinnati Reds.
The defending World Series champs have had nothing short of a tumultuous first half of the season, and closing in on the All-Star Break, I think the Cubbies simply need a gimme of a series to put in work.
Enter the Reds, who are in last place in the National League Central and have lost six of 10. They were just hammered yesterday at home, by the Milwaukee Brewers, 11-3. Now they get this angry Cubs team, and it will be trouble.
I'm listing the scheduled starters, as I think Chicago's Mike Montgomery will outpitch Scott Feldman.
Montgomery is in after a loss to the Miami Marlins in which he allowed three unearned runs in the first inning, then didn't allow another. He'll be out to avenge that, since he he lasted six innings, matching his longest outing of the season, and threw a season-high 91 pitches. He is 1-1 with a 2.65 ERA over his last three starts.
Feldman, on the other hand, gave up seven runs (five earned) in just 2.2 innings of work against the Cubs earlier this season.
Take Chicago here.
2* CUBS
Brad Wilton
Friday's free play is the Cubs and Reds to play Under the total.
I am aware of the fact that all 6 season series meetings this season, and each of the last 10 series meetings dating back to last season have all ended up playing Over the total, but I will go against that trend tonight with Mike Montgomery and Scott Feldman on the rubber.
Chicago has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the total, and Montgomery has seen the Under go 3-1-1 for his 5 starts this season.
Cincy's Scott Feldman has allowed 2 runs or less in 3 of his last 4 starts, and 5 of his 8 starts at home this season have ended up playing Under the total.
The Cubs bats have been pretty quiet this month, so let's look for an Under to finally be played between these two division rivals.
3* CUBS-CINCINNATI UNDER
Jeff Benton
Friday's comp play is to side with Houston to roll the injury-riddled New York Yankees.
The Yanks are dealing with a slew of injuries, the latest coming last night in Dustin Fowler's major league debut, as the outfield slammed into the rightfield wall and is now out for the season with injury. Throw in Starlin Castro, Aaron Hicks, Matt Holliday, CC Sabathia, and the still sidelined Greg Bird, and you can see the Yankees are not in good health.
Houston has already claimed 2 of the first 3 off of New York, including a May 12th win by Lance McCullers who worked 6 scoreless with 7 strikeouts.
Michael Pineda has struggled on the road, as he is just 1-2 in 6 road efforts with an ERA over 6. Pineda is also 2-3 with an over 4 ERA for his career against the Astros, including a May 11th home loss in which he allowed 3 runs in 6-plus innings of work.
This one is all about playing against the reeling Yankees.
Houston RUN LINE big!
5* HOUSTON -1.5
Harry Bondi
MIAMI (-105) over Milwaukee
We go for our 4th straight free winner tonight with Miami and their improving starter Edinson Volquez. On paper, this looks like two even pitchers. Both are former aces now finishing out their careers as .500 pitchers but Volquez has been the much better pitcher recently. He is 4-1 in his last six starts while Garza is 1-4 with a 6.32 ERA in his last six outings. Take the Marlins!
Bob Balfe
Dodgers -1.5
Alex Wood has been perfect this year for the Dodgers. San Diego can’t hit the ball, but are even worse when they face left handed pitching. I would really be shocked if they can get more than 2 runs on the board tonight. The Dodgers have a huge advantage on the mound and should win this game with ease.
Wunderdog
Chicago @ Cincinnati
Pick: Chicago -104
The Cubs have struggled to get on track this season, but have won five of the six meetings with the Reds, including a sweep of a three-game series in May while scoring 25 runs. Mike Montgomery gave up three runs in the first inning his last start against the Marlins, but then pitched well the rest of the way for a total of six innings. This will be Montgomery's fourth start and he has an overall ERA of 2.50. The Cubs are 38-13 the last 51 meetings with Cincinnati, which comes off an 11-3 loss to Milwaukee on Thursday. The Reds are 3-11 after a loss and they are 4-15 their last 19 games overall. The last time Scott Feldman faced the Cubs, he was pounded to the tune of seven runs (five earned) in just 2 2/3 innings. Feldman is 1-4 with a 5.29 ERA in night games this season.