DAVE COKIN
SEATTLE AT CINCINNATI
PLAY: SEATTLE -129
This year’s Seattle Mariners have been road warriors, and I’ll be hoping that tendency is maintained this evening as they open a series at Cincinnati.
I’m pretty impressed with the Mariners series win at Baltimore. The Orioles have been very tough at home and Seattle was heading east off a disastrous home set with the Angels. If ever a team seemed ripe to possibly hit the skids for a bit, it was the Mariners. Instead they took two of three from the Orioles and now have a chance to keep things rolling against the Reds.
The toughest aspect of this call is backing Hisashi Iwakuma, who has been less than reliable through the season’s first quarter. But all I really need from the veteran righty is a reasonable showing this evening, something along the lines of six innings and three runs. Anything better is a bonus, I’ll settle for a bare minimum quality start from Iwakuma.
The Seattle offense has a chance to do some damage tonight. Dan Straily has been adequate for the Reds, but some of that has been good fortune. Even assuming another decent game from Straily, chances are very good I’ll get three or so innings against the absolutely ghastly Cincinnati bullpen. This is an historically horrendous relief corps, and the whole idea is to simply be even against the Reds through six innings. Accomplish that, and basically whatever team the Reds are facing then assumes the role of favorite.
As for Straily, his career tendencies are pretty clear. He simply gets solved on the third trip through the opposition batting order. Take a look at his numbers on pitches 1-75, and he’s adequate. Once Straily gets past that 75 mark, the decline is significant. Combine that with the ineptitude of the Cincinnati pen, and the results are fairly predictable.
I think this line is dirt cheap at roughly -130 and I have to think it’s going up as the day progresses. So this is a game I’d have to suggest should be played early in the day to attain the best value. In any event, I’ll look for the Seattle side to pick up another road win, while also extending the latest Cincinnati losing streak. Lay it with the Mariners tonight.
Ben Burns
Dodgers vs. Padres
Play: Padres +1½
The Dodgers have won five of six meetings this season, including a 3-game sweep here to begin the season.
You may recall that one, as the Padres didn't score a single run. I like the Padres' chances of getting a little payback tonight though.
While he had some control issues, Friedrich also had excellent stuff in his San Diego debut. He allowed only four hits and one run, through six complete innings. He'll be facing a Dodger team which is averaging only 3.7 runs, in games vs. southpaw starters.
By comparison, Kazmir will be facing a Padre lineup which is averaging 4.5 runs per game vs. southpaws. While Kazmir was better last time out, he's still got a poor 4.89 ERA on the season, an ugly 5.81 mark on the road.
Despite Friedrich pitching well, the Padres lost his debut by a score of 1-0. That was also the score the last time that they faced the Dodgers, as Kershaw outduelled Pomeranz. While I like their chances of an "upset," with four of the Padres' last six overall being decided by a single run, I'm thinking the run-line is the way to go here.
Mike Lundin
Braves vs. Phillies
Play: Phillies -155
Eight wins in their past 11 games have the Philadelphia Phillies just one game back of the Nats for the NL East top spot. This looks like a good time to back the Phillies in the opener of a three-game set against the MLB-worst Atlanta Braves Friday night as they send Aaron Nola on the mound.
Nola (3-2 , 2.89 ERA) has a 2-0 record while permitting three runs in 19 innings in three career starts versus Atlanta. The Phillies have won each of Nola's last five starts as he's gone 3-0 with a 1.32 ERA. The 22 year old right-hander has an impressive 0.85 WHIP this year and has limited opponents to a .188 batting average.
The Braves turn to Matt Wisler (1-3, 3.14 ERA) who has pitched decent enough lately but the 23 year old has received very little run support. The Braves rank among the worst in the majors for virtually all offensive categories and runs will surely be hard to come by tonight as well.
Ray Monohan
Yankees vs. Athletics
Play: Athletics -120
The Athletics and Yankees begin a weekend series and the A's send their ace to the hill in Sonny Gray. The Athletics ace has struggled this season, but a date with the Yankees at home is just what he needs. His ERA in his career against New York sits at 3.43 in 3 career outings.
For New York, they send out CC Sabathia. He has struggled in his career against Oakland going just 4-7 as he sits with an ERA of 5.44 in 15 career outings. New York has also been a bad road team to back this year. They are just 6-12 SU and their offense has been a struggle. They average just 2.83 runs per game while conceding 4.44. This is a completely different team on the road compared to when they are at home.
Some trends to consider. Athletics are 7-1 in their last 8 Friday games. Athletics are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
It's time for Sonny Gray to start pitching like an ace and given these circumstances, he should be able to get himself going here against New York.
Marc Lawrence
Yankees vs. A's
Play: A's -128
Edges - Athletics: Sonny Gray 2-0 last two team starts in this series; and 6-4 last 10 overall home team starts. Yankees: CC Sabathia 5-10 career team starts in this park, including 0-3 the last three. With The Pinstripes just 2-12 in their last 14 games as a visitor in this series, we recommend a 1* play on Oakland.
Jack Jones
Los Angeles Angels -127
The Los Angeles Angels are rolling right now. They have gone 6-1 in their last seven games overall. They have scored at least 7 runs in six of their last eight contests. Look for their bats to stay red hot against Baltimore's Mike Wright in Game 1 of this series Friday.
Wright has gone 2-3 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.359 WHIP in six starts this season. He has been at his worst away from home, going 1-1 with a 7.15 ERA in two road starts. He doesn't stand much chance of turning it around tonight with the way the Angels are swinging the bats.
Hector Santiago remains one of the most underrated starters in baseball year in and year out. Santiago is 3-2 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.160 WHIP in eight starts this season. He has owned the Orioles in three career starts against them, posting a 2.12 ERA and 1.235 WHIP. He has given up only four earned runs over 17 innings in those three starts.
Los Angeles is 30-12 (+12.9 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons. The Angels are 12-2 in Santiago's last 14 starts. Los Angeles is 6-0 in its last six vs. a right-handed starter. The Orioles are 1-5 in Wright's last six road starts.
Art Aronson
Indians vs. Red Sox
Play: Over 8½
The visitors turn to Corey Kluber (2-4, 4.30 ERA) who was rocked for four earned runs and three walks off seven hits over six innings in a 6-3 loss to the Twins on Saturday. It was the third straight outing that the veteran has issued multiple walks and he’s now given up nine earned runs over his last nine innings of work spanning two starts. The hard-hitting home side counters with the volatile Clay Buchholz (2-3, 6.11) who was blasted for five runs off seven hits and three walks over six innings in a fortunate no-decision vs. the Astros on Saturday. Good thing the Red Sox are one of the highest scoring teams in the league with this confirmed “gas can” on the mound. With these two suspect starters going head-to-head, the OVER does indeed become a legitimate investment opporunity in this one.
Jim Feist
Cubs vs. Giants
Play: Over 6½
A low baseball total here because Jake Arrieta is on the mound, but these are a pair of Top 7 teams in baseball in runs scored. Chicago is on a 15-7-2 run over the total with a deadly offense, including 7-1 over when Arrieta starts. While Chicago is No. 2 in the baseball in runs scored, San Francisco is No. 7. Jake Peavy is on the mound with a 1-4 record and a 7.43 ERA! Batters are hitting .324 off him, with the team 6-2 over the total when he starts. And the over is 10-4 when the Giants play Game 1 of a series.
Matt Josephs
Nationals vs. Marlins
Play: Over 8½
A pair of struggling pitchers take the mound in Miami. Justin Nicolino is getting his second look at Washington in a row after allowing four runs, five hits and five walks in just over four innings in DC. He has had issues with getting strikeouts with just four in 24 innings of work. Washington is putting up 5.2 runs per game vs. left-handed starters and over four runs per game overall. Miami's bullpen has seven losses and five blown saves so it can be shaky too. Tanner Roark lost to the Fish last time out giving up seven runs and eight hits in five innings. With that, he became 2-6 with a 5.12 ERA in nine career starts against them. Roark has seen the Fish three times already this season allowing 16 runs and 24 hits in 15 innings. Miami is hitting .272 this season and are putting up four runs per game at home. These two offenses should be able to put up some runs on Friday.
Dave Price
Toronto Blue Jays -121
We'll bet against the worst team in the American League in the Minnesota Twins, who are 10-30 on the season. The Twins have now lost four straight and 16 of their last 19 games overall, so it has certainly been a profitable move to fade them this month. The Blue Jays will be giving the ball to the young, talented Aaron Sanchez, who is 3-1 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.231 WHIP in 8 starts this year. Sanchez has been even more dominant on the road, going 3-0 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in 5 road starts. Tyler Duffey faced the Blue Jays once last season, and he was shelled for 6 earned runs in 2 innings of a 7-9 loss for the Twins. Minnesota is 5-22 (-16.1 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season. The Twins are 0-7 in their last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Minnesota is 1-15 in its last 16 after scoring 2 runs or less in its previous game. The Blue Jays are 43-16 in the last 59 meetings.
Scott Rickenbach
Chicago vs. San Francisco
Play: San Francisco +1½
With yesterday's defeat, the Cubs have now lost 5 of their last 8 games. I realize that Jake Arrieta is on the mound for them tonight but the Cubs offense has averaged just 2 runs per game in their last 4 games. The Giants are off of a 3-1 yesterday and have now won 8 straight games as San Francisco is the hottest team in the league right now. Though Jake Peavy's numbers look ugly on the season, he has pitched better in recent starts and the veteran hurler will absolutely be "up" for this chance to knock off the high-flying Cubs with their ace on the mound. He's catching them at the right time to do just that as the Cubs are certainly in a funk right now after their insane start to the season. Peavy has given up only 16 hits in the 17 innings spanning his last 3 starts and he allowed only 4 earned runs on just 9 hits in 11 and 1/3 innings against the Cubs last season. The Giants have won 4 of their last 6 home games against the Cubs and will be tough on Chicago again tonight in what should be a low-scoring pitchers duel which gives great value to the home dog on the run line.
Larry Ness
Baltimore at Los Angeles
Prediction: Los Angeles
Baltimore has played 25 of its 39 games this season at home, going 17-8 in Camden Yards. That’s the most home wins of any team in MLB and the second-best home winning percentage (.680), bettered by only the Cubs 14-6 (.700) record at Wrigley. The Orioles have played only two road games since April 28, playing at home for the majority of the last three weeks. However, they begin a nine-game road trip Friday night, starting against the LA Angels. LA is just 19-22 but has won SIX of its last seven after beating the Dodgers 7-4 on Thursday. The Angels have won despite having 10 players on the disabled list, including FIVE pitchers.
Baltimore is 24-15 overall but just 7-7 away from home. Manager Buck Showalter knows success on the road will be crucial later in the season. "Everybody's trying to seek their level right now," Showalter said. "We're in the middle of May. Everybody's trying to figure out who they are, whether they're a dancer or someone who spins the records." He believes he'll find out what his team is made of during its upcoming road stretch. "It's two common denominators of teams that play in October -- having an advantage at home and being competitive on the road. We know we have to follow that trend," Showalter told MLB's official website. "It's long, tried and tested. We're going to some places where people are playing well."
Mike Wright (2-3, 5.20 ERA) gest the start for Baltimore up against the Angels’ Hector Santiago (3-2, 3.42 ERA). Wright had his best start of the season Saturday while allowing two runs and three hits in seven innings of a 9-3 victory, while tying a season high with six strikeouts. "I think that seventh inning makes me feel really good," said Wright, who threw a career-high 108 pitches. "If I had gone six, that feels OK as long as we get the win, that's positive. But in that seventh, going out there and throwing that and getting over 100 pitches, it makes me feel really good, and hopefully I ride that the rest of the season." Wright made his major league debut against the Angels on May 17 of last year, allowing four hits in 7.1 innings (still his career high) of a 3-0 victory.
Santiago is coming off a solid outing of his own, outdueling “King Felix” while giving up two hits in a career high-tying eight innings of a 3-0 win at Seattle. He pitched fewer than six in each of his previous three outings. "I feel like if I'm in that situation then I'm pitching good and getting zeros," Santiago said. "If they get 10 hits and I put up six or seven zeros I'm happy just the same.” Santiago owns a 2.57 ERA in three starts (team is 0-3 despite his 2.12 ERA) and three relief appearances against the Orioles, but he hasn't faced them since 2014.
The Angels are 13-7 in Santiago’s 20 home starts (going back to the beginning of last year) and that’s the bet here!
Wunderdog
Los Angeles @ Washington
Pick: Los Angeles -6.5
Los Angeles blitzed Seattle in its opener, 96-66. They are tops in the WNBA in scoring and second in points allowed. Candace Parker was a whirlwind, getting 34 points on 12-of-20 shooting, five rebounds, four assists and three steals as the Sparks forced 24 turnovers. They head East but face a winless Washington squad despite opening the season with three-straight home contests. The Mystics are dealing with the early-season absence of their 2015 leading scorer, point guard Ivory Latta (knee surgery). After two games the Mystics are ninth in the league in points allowed and eighth in scoring.
Strike Point Sports
Indians at Red Sox
Play: Over 9
Boston's offense has been raking at home lately and I think they will be able to continue that kind of production with Cleveland coming into town. The Red Sox scored 73 runs in their most recent seven-game homestand, and Trevor Bauer hasn't been very effective against them. Bauer allowed two runs in an inning of relief this season against Boston and he lasted just 1.2 innings in his only start against them last year when he allowed 5 runs on 6 hits in a 9-1 loss. Clay Buchholz (2-3, 6.11 ERA) hasn't been getting the job done this year and is in danger of losing his spot in the rotation, especially with Joe Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez both being close to returning from the disabled list. Buchholz has allowed 4 runs or more in 6 of his 8 starts this year and Cleveland touched him up for five runs over four innings on April 6th of a 7-6 Cleveland win. The Red Sox have scored the most runs in the American League, with the next closest team scoring 50 runs less, but they have also given up plenty of runs as they have yielded the 5th most in the American League. I think this game goes over, as both offenses will be able to take advantage of the pitching matchup.
Robert Ferringo
Orioles at Angels
Play: Orioles
Yes, it is going to be difficult for the Orioles to wrap up play on Thursday and then fly cross-country and beat the Angels here on Friday night. But the Angels are going to be a in a letdown situation of their own after their early-week series with the rival Dodgers. On top of that, the Angels just aren't very good, they are decimated by injuries, and they are really unsteady in their rotation. That is the only advantage that some teams have over the Orioles - Baltimore's starting pitching is generally mediocre - but that's not a check in the Halos' box in this weekend series. The Orioles have gotten the better of the Angels over the past three years, and I think that they will get off to a strong start in this series with a win.