GoodFella
Seattle -130
I really do see a SP edge here for the Mariners. The Reds SP Straily has been hit hard by current Mariners & I fully expect this under-rated Seattle offense to get to him eventually. Then we get into that poor and over-used Reds bullpen. The Reds bullpen really got a ton of work in their Cleveland series that they just completed yesterday. These Mariners have been very good playing away from their home ballpark & I do expect Iwakuma to limit the Reds bats tonight. We have a nice edge on the bullpens for these Mariners tonight & I look for Iwakuma to limit Cincy and then hand the ball over to the very solid Seattle bullpen to close this game out. Good value for me on this Mariners club in this spot and at this price on Friday Night & I'm backing SEATTLE here.
Teddy Covers
Seattle at Cincinnati
Play: Over 8.5
Cincinnati has been an Over machine, cashing only 14 Unders in their first 41 games. It’s easy to understand why – their pitching has been nothing short of awful. No starter has lasted past the sixth inning in the last two weeks, and Reds starters have lasted only 208.1 combined innings, the lowest number of innings pitched in MLB.
Poor starting pitching has led to an exhausted, overworked bullpen, a pen that ranks #29 in innings pitched this season. Reds relievers rank dead last in MLB with a 6.48 ERA, 88 walks and 34 home runs allowed. That bullpen has been severely tested and depleted in their last series against the Indians; forced to throw 19.2 innings over the four game set while allowing 20 runs in the process. All four of those games flew Over the total, by a combined 26 runs! And it’s surely worth noting that the Reds lineup is in solid current form, pounding out 25 runs over their last five games.
Seattle won’t lose Nelson Cruz’s big bat despite playing in an NL Park tonight, with Cruz expected to move from his usual DH spot into right field. And the Mariners have been swinging hot bats too, scoring 19 runs in their just concluded three game set at Baltimore. This isn’t new or different for Seattle – they’ve averaged 5.3 runs per game on the highway, but only 3.7 runs per game at pitcher friendly Safeco Field.
Reds starter Dan Straily had blister issues in his last start, never a good sign moving forward. Manager Bryan Price has been trying to string extra outs from Straily thanks to that bullpen ineffectiveness – the five year veteran has exceeded his previous pitch count career high twice in his last three starts. Mariners starter Hisashi Iwakuma certainly hasn’t been throwing at an ace level this season – his strikeouts are down, his walks are up, and he’s not getting ground ball outs on a consistent basis.
Bruce Marshall
Tampa Bay -104
The storyline of the past two weeks in the AL East has been Tampa Bay stater Matt Andriese, with back-to-back wins voer the Angels and A's and surrendering only one earned run over 16 innings, leading to minuscule and matching 0.56 ERA and WHIP figures. Not so much with Detroit's Anibal Sanchez; after leading the league with 29 homers allowed last season, Sanchez has given up eight bombs over eight outings in 2016. Since the start of last year, he has an awful 1.67 HR/9 ratio.
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Pirates on the Run Line over the Rockies.
Nice start to their homestand for the Bucs who just wrapped up 3 wins in 4 games against the Braves, all 3 of the wins coming by 2 runs or better.
Now Pittsburgh will face a Colorado team that has dropped their last pair on the road, getting outscored, 15-7 at St. Louis.
The Pirates have won 7 in a row over the Rockies, and 5 of the 7 wins have come by 2 runs or better.
Gerrit Cole is coming off his best start of the season, as he blanked the mighty Cubs for 8 frames at Wrigley Field his last time out, and he does already own a win over Colorado back in April in a game the Pirates bested the Rockies, 9-4.
Eddie Butler counters and sports a pretty high ERA of 4.74 this season.
Look for the Pirates to remain comfy, cozy at home this evening and dump the Rockies by at least 2 runs.
2* PITTSBURGH -1.5
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 59-45 run with free picks: Colorado (+210) at PITTSBURGH
The STORYLINE in this game today - My free play is on the Colorado Rockies, in Pittsburgh against the Pirates. I don't want you listing pitchers in this game, I'm taking a shot here with this matchup, based on the fact I think the Bucs may not take this one as serious as they should. Everything is pointing to Geritt Cole, but something tells me he won't have the support he should for this one.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Anyone else realize there isn't much difference between these teams? Seriously. The Rockies and Pirates are both around .500, they have similar run differentials, they boast explosive lineups and they struggle in the same areas with their pitching staffs. For me, that should give the Rockies confidence in this game. That's all you really need when you're underestimated as much as the Rockies are in this one.
BOTTOM LINE is - Now, these two went into yesterday's action separated by one game in the standings, while the Pirates and Colorado ranked 1-2 in the National League in batting average. There is no reason the Rockies can't come out swinging against Cole and shock the Bucs at PNC.
4* ROCKIES
Brad Wilton
Friday's comp play is the Under in the Braves-Phillies contest.
These teams met just over a week ago in Atlanta, and 2 of the 3 held Under the total, that includes the games that Matt Wisler and Aaron Nola started (they did not face each other).
Overall, the Braves and Phillies have played Under the total in 5 of their last 6 series meetings.
Philly has held Under the total in 4 of their 6 on their current homestand, and Aaron Nola is the owner of a lowly 2.89 ERA for the season.
6 of Nola's 8 season starts have held Under the total.
Matt Wisler counters, and has seen 5 of his 7 season starts hold Under the total as he brings in a 3.19 season ERA.
Not a lot of runs tonight at the Bank.
Braves-Phils Under.
1* ATLANTA-PHILADELPHIA UNDER
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is on the Oakland Athletics against the New York Yankees, as I side with the A's for a third straight day with my complimentary selection.
The A's are in after winning four of five after a sweep of the Texas Rangers, and are sitting five back of division-leading Seattle, while the Yankees are in after a rugged series in Phoenix against the Diamondbacks. I say rugged, because that desert heat can be relentless, and now they don't get time to rest and adapt to the Bay Area chill at night. Though the Bombers won 4-1 last night, I suspect they're getting tired.
And though I won't list pitchers, I don't trust C.C. Sabathia and think it's a plus we're facing him tonight.
Look for the A's to use their 4-1 streak as motivation to continue to drive forward and make a move in the division. Forget the pitchers, the momentum is in Oakland's favor today.
4* ATHLETICS
Mike Lundin
Braves vs. Phillies
Play: Phillies -155
Eight wins in their past 11 games have the Philadelphia Phillies just one game back of the Nats for the NL East top spot. This looks like a good time to back the Phillies in the opener of a three-game set against the MLB-worst Atlanta Braves Friday night as they send Aaron Nola on the mound.
Nola (3-2 , 2.89 ERA) has a 2-0 record while permitting three runs in 19 innings in three career starts versus Atlanta. The Phillies have won each of Nola's last five starts as he's gone 3-0 with a 1.32 ERA. The 22 year old right-hander has an impressive 0.85 WHIP this year and has limited opponents to a .188 batting average.
The Braves turn to Matt Wisler (1-3, 3.14 ERA) who has pitched decent enough lately but the 23 year old has received very little run support. The Braves rank among the worst in the majors for virtually all offensive categories and runs will surely be hard to come by tonight as well.
Tony George
Royals vs. White Sox
Play: White Sox -155
Kansas City hits the road after winning their last 2 series against the Braves and Red Sox but are running into the White Sox tonight who have a red hot pitcher on the hill. Quintana leads the AL in ERA and has given up just 2 or fewer runs in each of his last 8 starts, and with KC’s inconsistency at the plate, and starting Gee on the hill tonight who last lost to Atlanta, I like the White Sox’s chances tonight despite Quintana’s struggles against KC over the years. Kansas City is just 3-12 on the road their last 15 road games, and that is not an impressive number from the defending world champs.
KC hitting just .200 against right handers their last 5 games, and I am not sold on the starter for KC tonight either, despite a good bullpen which KC may be going to earlier than expected.
Jeff Alexander
Royals vs. White Sox
Play: White Sox -155
Kansas City just won back-to-back series at home over the Braves and Red Sox, but are now headed back on the road where they are just 7-13 this season. Getting things turned around away from home won't be easy in game 1 of their series against the White Sox. The Royals will be up against one of the elite starters in the game in Jose Quintana, who is 5-2 with a 1.54 ERA in 8 starts. As good as that is, Quintana has been even better at home, where he's 3-0 with a 0.82 ERA and 0.773 WHIP in 3 starts. Kansas City will counter with Dillon Gee, who was less than impressive in his first start of 2016, giving up 3 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks to the weak-hitting Braves at home.
Brandon Lee
Rays +102
Tampa Bay will head to Detroit riding a huge wave of momentum after sweeping the Blue Jays on the road in a 3-game set. The Rays have won 4 straight overall and I like their chances of making it 5 in a row with the edge they will have on the mound tonight. Tampa Bay gives the ball to Matt Andriese, who has been spectacular in two starts since joining the rotation. Andriese allowed 1 run on 4 hits over 7 innings in his debut and then followed it up with a complete game 2-hit shutout. Detroit will send out the struggling Anibal Sanchez, who has a 5.91 ERA and 1.594 WHIP in 8 starts. Sanchez has allowed at least 4 runs in 5 of his last 6 starts and has a miserable 15 walks in his last 4 outings.
ASA
Phillies -1½ +130
The Phillies have been tremendous in one run games this season. That said, it may seem a little tough to lay the 1.5 runs here but the key is that this truly should be a blowout. Atlanta has the worst record in the National League and 23 of their 30 losses have come by 2 runs or more. The Braves are 40 games into the new season and that means that if you laid -1.5 against Atlanta all season you would be 23-17 and you would be getting some nice plus money returns, just like we are getting today with the Phillies at +130 on the run line. Philadelphia has won 8 of their last 11 games and we expect the Phillies to get a strong start from Aaron Nola today. He is undefeated in his last three starts with a 1.80 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP and the Braves haven't seen him since last season. Nola is piling up the strikeouts this season and he is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in his three career starts against the Braves. Atlanta will have Matt Wisler toeing the rubber tonight. The disadvantage for Wisler is the Phillies just faced him less than two weeks ago. Also, in his only career start at Philadelphia, Wisler gave up 7 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work. This one shapes up to be a pitching mismatch and the Phillies offense has picked up in recent weeks.
Jimmy Boyd
Nationals -134
I cashed in on the Nationals with my free pick on Thursday and I'm firing back with Washington on Friday. The Nationals have got their offense going with 16 runs in their last two games and when this team is swinging the bat well they are extremely difficult to beat.
I look for the offense to put up another big number tonight against Miami's Justin Nicolino, who has a 5.40 ERA and 1.680 WHIP in his last 3 starts and a 4.50 ERA and 1.500 WHIP at home. Nicolino has also had a difficult time slowing down the Nationals. He's made two starts against them since last September and has allowed 11 runs on 12 hits and 7 walks in 10 1/3 innings of work.
Washington will counter with Tanner Roark, who often gets overlooked in their loaded rotation. Roark is just 2-3 on the season, but has pitched better than his record would lead on. He has a respectable 3.10 ERA and 1.257 WHIP in 8 starts. He's pitched very well in his last two outings on the road, giving up just 3 earned runs in 13 1/3 innings of work. He faces a Miami offense that has scored just 3 runs in their last 2 games.
Nationals are 5-0 in their last 5 against a left-handed starter, 8-3 in their last 11 road games against at team with a losing record and 12-4 in their last 16 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. T
Michael Alexander
Nationals -134
After working 7 1/3 scoreless innings in his season debut on April 27, Nicolino has allowed 10 earned runs in 16 2/3 frames and lost at Washington on Saturday. The Nationals got to the 24-year-old for four runs in 4 2/3 innings, drawing five walks against just one strikeout. Nicolino, who has issued 31 free passes while fanning only 27 in his career, is 0-2 with a 9.58 ERA in two meetings with Washington.
SPORTS WAGERS
Pittsburgh -½ +118 over TAMPA BAY
Regulation only. Once again we are not in a position to bet this game because we have 6 units invested already on the Penguins. However, if you do not have a series bet or want to gamble a little bit more, the Penguins once again come recommended.
As true form would have it, the Penguins are indeed dominating this series and had it not been for the stellar play of Andrei Vasilevskiy, this series might be 3-0 already. The past two games have also been closer than they should have only because of Vasilevskiy. The Pens have outshot the Bolts by a combined count of 124-69 in the three games thus far and it’s getting progressively worse, as Pittsburgh recorded 35, 41 and 48 shots on net in games one, two and three, respectively. They have tripled the Bolts in high quality scoring chances. Now the Penguins killer instinct figures to kick in with a chance to put the Lightning out of their misery. We said it before the series began and we’ll say it again that this is not a fair fight.
We also have to question the mindset of the entire Tampa team now. Hockey is a team sport. You win together and you lose together. Sometimes the goaltender wins games on his own and sometimes the goaltender costs his team a game. The same can be said for a defenseman that makes a horrible miscue and costs his team a goal, which just happens to turn out to be the winner. Andrei Vasilevskiy was under siege last game and instead of just playing the game, he acted like a spoiled little brat by shaking his head at his teammates for allowing the Penguins to attack like they did. He walked off between periods and after the game shaking his head also. This is a rookie that is supposed to be on the bench. He’s played a handful of NHL games in his career and he’s humiliating guys like Ryan Callahan, Alex Killorn, Victor Hedman, Tyler Johnson, Anton Stralman, Valtteri Filppula and others? These guys have paid their dues and deserve better and while it may be water under the bridge, we can guarantee you that it didn’t sit well with anyone in the Lightning locker room. It may not matter one bit but it’s still there and for a team that needs to be 100% focused and on the same page to even have a slight chance of defeating this beast, it’s something else to think about. The Bolts are outclassed and while they figure to respond to all the backlash they’re taking, it’s still likely not going to be enough. After humiliating his teammates, Vasilevskiy had better come up big again tonight, as he has put that type of pressure on himself because of his childish actions. Many things have to go right for the Bolts to pull off this Game 4 upset and even if they do go right, it may still not be enough.