SPORTS WAGERS
Tampa Bay -105 over DETROIT
Fresh off a complete-game victory over Oakland in his last start, Matt Andriese has allowed just one run on six hits with eight strikeouts and three walks through two starts (16 innings) since being called up from Triple-A Durham two weeks ago. Andriese works quickly and deliberately on the mound, attacking opposing hitters by filling up the strike zone and pitching to contact. He doesn’t possess lofty strikeout numbers but he doesn’t have to because his hard-contact rate is so low (13% line-drive rate). Andriese is indirectly impacted by Tampa Bay’s tremendous pitching depth and the presence of a supremely talented prospect, southpaw Blake Snell, who remains on the precipice of a permanent promotion from Triple-A. In other words, this kid has others breathing down his neck so he brings that to the park every game. There’s no guarantee that Andriese will remain a permanent fixture in the Rays rotation, but there’s no question about his talent and he’s looking better each game. Incidentally, the Rays offense has scored six runs or more in five straight games.
Like most everyone else that bets on baseball daily, we backed Anibal Sanchez at least once in 2015 and afterward we felt shame, regret, and a determination not to make the same mistake twice. As the chalk, Anibal Sanchez has zero appeal. After posting a 5.00+ ERA in each of the season's first two months of last year, Sanchez drew us back with a 2.63 ERA in June, before resuming his championship-inhibiting ways in July/August. His season finally (and mercifully) concluded when he was placed on the DL with a rotator cuff strain on August 20. In 43 innings this year, Sanchez has walked 24 batters and brings a 5.91 ERA into this start to go along with a 1.59 WHIP. Sanchez’s consistent velocity doesn’t raise any warning flags but his 8% swing and miss rate does. That suggests his pitches lack movement or are “flat”. He’s still getting K’s (39 in 43 frames) but the combination of rising ball%, fly-ball%, and hr/f is a cause for concern and may keep Sanchez from bouncing all the way back to his pre 2015 days. With a weak pen behind Sanchez, there is only one way to lean here.
L.A. ANGELS -1½ +171 over Baltimore
He’s had six starts this season with just one appearance out of the bullpen, covering a total of 36 frames. Wright brings a 5.20 ERA into this start with a BB/K split of 11/27 and while his xERA is 4.04, a lack of skills will prevent him from thriving anytime soon. Aside from his last start against the Tigers, Wright has struggled in every other start. He’s constantly working in and out of jams because he’s hittable and because his control is shaky. Despite his imposing 6’6” size, he hasn't shown much in the way of his weak 7% swing and miss rate. His first-pitch strike rate doesn't offer much hope that better control is near, either. He’ll now face an Angels team that is seeing beach balls at the plate.
More than anything else here, we are backing the Angels because they’re hot. They’re scoring runs in droves, they can’t wait to get to the ballpark and they’re absolutely destroying these mid or backend rotation guys. Over the past 10 games, only the Red Sox have a higher team batting average than the Halos. Outside of facing Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez over the past eight days, the Angels have scored six runs or more in every other game over that span.
Injuries to fellow starting pitchers Garrett Richards, Andrew Heaney, and C.J. Wilson has compelled Hector Santiago to pitch toward the front of the team's rotation right now. Santiago is not a front-end guy but he brings success to this start with an oppBA of just .230. The Angels have won six of his eight starts with his last four winning decisions being by two runs or more. Santiago has made just two home starts this year but he usually thrives at the Big A. Last year at home, Santiago allowed just 71 hits in 98 home innings for an oppBA of .197. In 17 home starts last year, he only had two losses and he’s actually throwing better this year with a better groundball rate, more K’s and improved control. Santiago is almost always worth backing at home but again, this one is more about riding the hot bats of the Halos against an Orioles team that has played fewer road games (14) than any team in the league
Harry Bondi
WASHINGTON -130 over Miami
Nationals and Marlins have already played each other 10 times this year! Washington right hander Tanner Roark has already lost 3 times to Miami this season and he is undefeated against everyone else! He is too good a pitcher to lose to the fish 4 straight times and the Nationals are playing much better baseball than Miami.