Free Picks for Friday, May 26th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
SERIES - PENGUINS -150
The Nashville Predators are an ultimate Cinderella story. The Preds qualified for the playoffs as the second wild card entry in the Western Conference. Yet here they are heading to the Cup Finals, and I think it’s fair to offer they’ve played better hockey than any other team in this post-season.
Unfortunately for Nashville fans, I suspect the clock is about to strike midnight for their team. I see too many potholes for the Predators to negotiate in this matchup with the Penguins.
The Pens are the reigning champs, and while it’s been ages since any team went back to back in the NHL, I see that championship experience as a big plus for Pittsburgh.
Neither team is in great shape physically at this point, which is not even mildly surprising. The NHL playoffs are incredibly difficult from a physical standpoint, as unlike the NBA, there isn’t much time between games and the entire hockey post-season is an exercise in physical mayhem. But I’d have to give the health edge to the Penguins at this point.
Finally, the time off between the Western Conference finals and the championship series might actually be a bit of a negative for Nashville. While the rest period is nice, I wonder if the time off might take an edge off the remarkable momentum that this team has ridden ever since they wiped out the Blackhawks way back in the opening round.
I’m on the public side here, as the Penguins are certainly going to he the square side in this series. But I also happen to believe they’re the right side. I don’t see this being at all easy, but I’m willing to back the chalky Penguins at -150 to win their second straight Stanley Cup.
Stephen Nover
Baltimore vs. Houston
Play: Baltimore +144
The ERA shows 6.65. But the buy sign is on for me here with Baltimore starter Kevin Gausman. I'm willing to take a calculated leap of faith with Glausman and the Orioles at this tidy road underdog price against Houston.
Gausman is showing definite signs of turning around his year after a disastrous start. He's had two quality starts in his last three outings giving up two earned runs during those two good games. He pitched his best game of the season three starts ago holding Washington to two runs on five hits in seven innings with eight strikeouts. The Nationals lead the majors in runs, batting average and homers.
The Orioles are four-for-20 with runners in scoring position during their last four games. Baltimore, though, ranks third in the league in batting with runners in scoring position. I see them getting back on track against Houston starter Joe Musgrove.
Musgrove is the weakest of Houston's starters. He has a 5.63 ERA. Foes are batting .306 against him and have smacked nine homers off him, including six by right-handers. The Orioles have plenty of right-handed power. Musgrove lasted just three innings in his last start, which came at home against the Indians this past Sunday. He was blasted for seven runs allowing eight hits and walking three.
Baltimore faced Musgrove once last season at home. The Orioles buried the Astros, 13-5, in that contest putting up eight runs on 11 hits and one walk against Musgrove in 5 1/3 innings. Houston is 1-5 in Musgrove's last six home starts.
The Orioles were idle on Thursday, while the Astros had to use their best relievers to nip the Tigers, 7-6, Thursday.
The spot is ripe for the Orioles. They are going against a very vulnerable starter with their own starter displaying positive signs of coming around. Baltimore has been good in these type of situations, too, winning nine of the last 13 times when going against a home team with a winning percentage of better than .600.
Marc Lawrence
Braves vs. Giants
Play: Giants -105
Edges - Giants: Cain 3-1 with 1.19 ERA and 1.10 WHIP at home as opposed to 8.28 ERA and 1.96 WHIP away this season… Braves: Garcia 4.98 ERA and 1.43 WHIP away this season as opposed to 1.88 ERA and 1.05 WHIP home this season. With Cain 9-2 his last elven home team starts during May, we recommend a 1* play on San Francisco.
Mike Anthony
St Louis vs. Colorado
Play: Colorado +117
Charlie Blackmon swing has been ridiculously good, with a .323. avg and 61 hits, tops on the team. The big Colorado CF has certainly not had any problems making contact. And Colorado has some good overall tools on the team, warrant immediate concern for any pitcher. Colorado at home have been nearly impossible to play well against. 34 yr old Yadier Molina, is not really a very fast player so his infield dinkers are not going to get him too far. Carlos Gonzalez can cover a lot of space in the outfield for Colorado - as he is very quick when getting a bead on a fly ball. Getting base to base for St. Louis has been a struggle as they have been playing 50/50 through the 5.23.17 period. Carlos Martinez has been having a tendency to give up a load of hits - over 9 games - this leaves a great chance for a shelling from a big batting team. Colorado wins here at home as an underdog.
Rob Vinciletti
Atlanta vs. San Francisco
Play: San Francisco -106
SF is 3-0 at home off a road loss. The Braves are 0-10 on the road off a home loss. Even better. Road dogs league wide that are off a 5+ run home loss like Atlanta are 1-14 if they scored 4 or less runs on 10+ hits and are playing a team off a loss. SF has won 5 of the last 6 at home and they have Cain and his 1.19 home Era on the mound. Garcia counters for Atlanta and his Road Era is right around 5. Look for the Giants to take the opener.
Big Al
Atlanta vs. San Francisco
Play: San Francisco -106
Just when the Braves were starting to play some pretty good baseball, they suffer perhaps the one injury that they can least afford. 1B Freddy Freeman - the most productive player on the team (and clubhouse leader) - fractured his wrist and will be out until at least early August. The offense wasn't great with Freeman in the lineup and now it's almost certainly going to be anemic. An early candidate for comeback player of the year is Giants veteran RHP Matt Cain. Cain was all but left for dead the last four seasons and a rotation spot was certainly in doubt coming into 2017. Cain's 4.91 ERA in nine starts is far from ideal, but it's also a bit misleading as Cain has three bad starts while the other six are very good. And all three of those bad ones were on the road as Cain is relishing his home park this season. In four 2017 starts at AT&T Park, Cain is an incredible 3-0 with a sparkling 1.19 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. LHP Jaime Garcia will get the start for the Braves and Garcia has won just once in eight starts this season and it will no doubt be harder for him to win with Freeman out of the lineup. The Giants are 7-3 in Cain's last 10 home starts.
Jim Feist
Cubs at Dodgers
Pick: Under
Dodger stadium is a huge park, great for pitchers. The Under is 8-2-1 in the Cubs last 11 vs. the National League West. LA is tops in baseball in team pitching, and the Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Will Rogers
Baltimore vs. Houston
Pick: Houston
The set-up: The Orioles began their six-game homestand with a pair of wins over Toronto but dropped the series finale and then got swept in a three-game series by the visiting Twins. Baltimore is now 25-20 (2 1/2 back of New York)), as it makes a quick three-game visit to Houston, before returning home to begin a nine-game homestand, which includes three games with the Yankees and four with the Red Sox. The road hasn't been kind to Baltimore of late (Orioles have lost eight of their last 10 away from home) and it won't go unnoticed that Houston owns MLB's best record at 32-16, as well as MLB's second-best moneyline mark (plus-$1115). However, Houston hasn't thrived during its recent 10-game homestand (which concludes with these three games against the Orioles), having gone only 3-4 through seven games.
The pitching matchup: Kevin Gausman (2-3 & 6.65 ERA) will start for Baltimore and Joe Musgrove (3-4 & 5.63 ERA) for Houston. Gausman surrendered a season-high 10 hits in six innings against Toronto this past Saturday but allowed only two runs to escape with a no-decision. Fact is, he has won only one of his last seven outings (team is 2-5), allowing five or more runs four times in that span. Gausman has split his two career starts against Houston, allowing nine runs (eight earned) over 11 2/3 Innings ((6.17 ERA)
Musgrove was tagged for seven runs on eight hits and three walks in three innings of an 8-6 loss to Cleveland on Sunday. That's come a fall-off as he had allowed a total of seven runs in his previous three starts combined (won two of the three). Musgrove lost his only career start against the Orioles on Aug. 18 of last season, when he surrendered eight runs on 11 hits in 5 1/3 innings at Baltimore (OUCH!).
The pick: The Orioles may be third in the majors this season batting .311 with runners in scoring position but the team is just 4-for-20 (.200) in that situation over the past four games, all losses. Musgrove recorded only nine outs in that 8-6 loss to the Indians on Sunday and that follows a pattern that has seen no Houston starter record more than 15 outs in any of the last five games. The good news for Houston is, Musgrove should be fresh and his "opposite number" (Gausman) has only one win over his past seven starts, posting an 8.04 ERA during that stretch. On the season, Gausman owns a 1.86 WHIP with opponents hitting a robust .328 against him. I'll take the Astros.
Mike Lundin
Mets vs. Pirates
Play: Over 8
The over is 29-10-6 in games involving the New York Mets this season, and I think we'll see another game go over the posted total when they visit the Pittsburgh Pirates Friday.
Pittsburgh is coming off a pair of high-scoring wins against Atlanta and hands the ball to Chad Kuhl (1-4, 5.85 ERA). He's coming off his best outing of the season when he allowed one hit in five innings against the Phillies on Sunday. That was however a rare strong outing home at PNC Park as Kuhl has posted an 8.20 ERA in five home starts on the season. Over is 8-3 in Kuhl's last 11 home starts.
The Mets turn to Jacob deGrom (3-1, 3.56 ERA). He's coming off seven scoreless innings of a 3-0 home win agains the Halos, but he has been charged with nine runs on 16 hits in 11 innings over his last two road starts. Over is 4-0 in deGrom's last four road starts.
Over is 22-3-4 in Mets last 29 games vs. a right-handed starter and they average a healthy 6.05 runs per game on the road.
Darryl Tucholski
Cardinals vs. Rockies
Play: Under 10½
Under is 7-3 in the last 10 games in Colorado. Despite teams adjusting to Senzatela (8 ER in his last 10 IP) Carlos Martinez should keep the score in check from his side, as he's only allowed 6 ER total in his last four outings.
Larry Wallace
Rangers vs. Blue Jays
Play: Rangers +142
Taking the rangers in this game. AJ Griffin has been their most consistent pitcher this year, and while the Blue Jays have played a better May, i still like the Rangers here. Since authoring his second career shutout May 9 to cap a four-outing stretch in which he went 4-0 with a 1.38 ERA, the 29-year-old is 0-1 with a 14.05 ERA in his last two turns. Griffin has performed well in five career starts versus the Blue Jays, going 2-0 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, so look for him to get back on track today. Bolsinger, who hasn't earned a victory in over a year, saw his winless streak extended to seven turns Saturday in Baltimore, settling for a no-decision after getting tagged for four runs on six hits and five walks in 5 1/3 frames. The Arkansas alum has yet to complete six innings despite throwing at least 92 pitches in each of his three outings, issuing 11 free passes over 15 2/3 innings.
Larry Ness
Baltimore vs. Houston
Pick: Houston -136
The Orioles 'limp' into Houston on a four-game slide for a three-game series with the Astros, who own MLB's best record at 32-16. Baltimore just got swept at home by the Twins and at 25-20, are now 2 1/2 games ahead of the Yankees in the AL East and will return home after this weekend for a nine-game homestand, with seven of those games coming against AL East rivals New York (three) and Boston (four).
However, the Orioles, who have lost eight of their last 10 road games, must first face the Astros, who also own MLB's second-best moneyline mark at plus-$1,115. This three-game set with the Orioles will conclude the Astros' 10-game homestand, one which has hardly been anything to brag about with Houston going just 3-4. The pitching matchup features a pair of struggling starters, Baltimore's Kevin Gausman (2-3, 6.65 ERA) and Houston's Joe Musgrove (3-4, 5.63 ERA).
Gausman gave up a season-high 10 hits in six innings against Toronto this past Saturday but allowed only two runs to escape with a no-decision. He's earned just ONE win over his last seven starts (team is 2-5) and no wonder, as he's posted an 8.04 ERA during that stretch. He's 1-1 in two career starts against Houston, allowing nine runs (eight earned) over 11.2 Innings, giving him a 6.17 ERA. Musgrove gave up seven runs on eight hits and three walks in three innings of an 8-6 loss to Cleveland on Sunday. However, he had been much better his previous three, going 2-1 with a 4.02 ERA. He's lost his only career start against the Orioles (August of 2016), getting ripped for eight runs on 11 hits in just 5.1 innings!
Musgrove recorded only nine outs in that 8-6 loss to the Indians on Sunday but taking a positive spin, at least he should be "fresh!" Let's not forget that Houston owns MLB's best record and that the Orioles come in having lost EIGHT of their last 10 road games. Then there is Baltimore starter Gausman, who owns a 1.86 WHIP and .328 BAA on the 2017 season. I'll take the team with MLB's best record.
Wunderdog
Cardinals @ Rockies
Pick: Under 10.5
Colorado comes home after a 10-game road trip. They come into this one off of an 11-inning game in Philadelphia on Thursday, losing 2-1. They face Carlos Martinez tonight and he hasn't allowed more than three runs his last five starts. He threw nine shutout innings while allowing just two hits against the Giants on Saturday although the Cardinals went on to lose 3-1 in 13 innings. St. Louis is 9-4-2 UNDER in Martinez's last 15 starts dating to last season and four of the Cardinals' last five games at Colorado have gone UNDER. The Rockies have stayed UNDER the total seven of their last 10 home games, including four of five against right-handed starters. Antonio Senzatela is 6-1 with a 3.67 ERA in his rookie season with the Rockies. Martinez has made two appearances at Coors Field the last three seasons and he has a 2-0 record and 3.18 ERA.
Teddy Covers
Atlanta vs. San Francisco
Play: San Francisco -115
To say the betting markets HATE Matt Cain is something of an understatement. How much do they dislike Cain? Well, this is only the second time he’s been favored all year (higher than -110). The first came at home against the lowly Padres with Jhoulys Chacin on the hill. And here, against a Braves team that’s five games under .500 and just lost their best hitter to the DL, Cain still is only in the -115 range, even AFTER a market move in his favor in early betting action on Friday.
In his road starts, the markets have been 100% correct in fading the aging Giants hurler – he’s thrown well only once in five tries, including a particularly ugly outing in St Louis last weekend. But pitching in his comfort zone on a typical cool May evening in San Francisco, Cain offers legitimate bet-on potential, especially in this attractive underdog price range.
The numbers don’t lie. Matt Cain has a 8.28 ERA on the highway this year, but he’s allowed only three runs in his four starts here at AT&T Park; a bet-on hurler in a ballpark where fly balls tend to die on the warning track. That home ERA includes 6.1 innings of one run ball against the potent Dodgers lineup in his last outing.
And make no mistake about it – even after a rough week in Chicago, the Giants are on a legitimate uptick right now. They had won eight of ten prior to running into the Cubs. Meanwhile, Atlanta has cooled off too since Freddy Freeman went on the DL, closing out their homestand with a pair of ugly losses to the Pirates.
Atlanta’s Jamie Garcia is a lefty, and San Francisco has struggled in the aggregate against opposing southpaws this season. But Garcia certainly isn’t mowing opposing hitters down these days. He’s notched only one win in eight previous starts, and both his FIP and his xFIP are considerably higher than his ERA. Current Giants Brandon Belt and Buster Posey both have excellent track records against Garcia; a hurler who hasn’t thrown many gems in recent seasons.