Chip Chirimbes
Cubs vs. Dodgers
Play: Dodgers
Chicago's Jake Arrieta (5-3, 4.80 ERA) will start for Chicago and he will have memories of his no-hitter against the Dodgers in 2015 his only career win (1-3) against Los Angeles. The Dodgers who have won six of their last eight and are 18-8 at home will send Alex Wood (5-0, 1.88) to the hill and he is working on 18+ scoreless innings. He has allowed just 31 hits in 43 innings with a 0.93 WHIP in his last five starts.
Jesse Schule
Padres at Nationals
Pick: Nationals -1.5
The Nats are running away with the NL East, sitting 7.5 games up on the second place Atlanta Braves. They host the struggling San Diego Padres Friday, and this looks like a bit of a mismatch. Max Scherzer will toe the slab for Washington, and he's owned the Padres in the past. Scherzer (4-3, 3.02 ERA) allowed three runs on four hits and three walks, striking out six in five innings in a loss at Atlanta his last time out. The Padres lineup is batting just .189 over a combined 53 at bats against Scherzer. The Padres hand the ball to Luis Perdomo, who is coming off a disastrous performance. The right-hander was rocked for eight runs on 11 hits in just three innings in a 9-1 home loss to Arizona his last time out. He has yet to win a decision in seven starts so far in 2017, and the Padres have lost five of those games. The Nationals have scored the most runs in the majors, while the Padres a batting a major league worst .221.
Power Sports
Angels vs. Marlins
Play: Marlins -121
The Marlins have had a dreadful May (5-17 overall!) thus far, but they are in a pretty good spot in the opener of this three-game interleague set. Not only were they off yday (while the Angels were shutout in Tampa Bay), but they'll be sending Dan Straily out to the mound. Straily has been the most reliable member of the rotation thus far w/ a 3.70 ERA and 1.028 WHIP. There have been some hard-luck losses along the way, but at home Straily has been REALLY good w/ a 1.95 ERA and 0.832 WHIP. Last time out, he won as a +155 underdog on the ML at Dodger Stadium.
The Angels wound up splitting four games w/ the Rays in their first Floridian series of the week. They won the first two games at Tampa Bay, only to lose the final two. As mentioned above, they were shut out on Thursday and managed only six hits for the entire game. Remember, here they will lose the DH spot from the batting order. That's trouble for a team that's batting only .222 on the road to begin with. Furthermore, this is one of the few AL teams with a losing record in Interleague Play. They're just 18-25 vs. the NL the L3 seasons and just lost two of three up in New York (to the Mets) last weekend. The team is also 8-13 after suffering a shutout loss since the start of the 2015 season.
Jesse Chavez, tonight's starter for LA, last pitched in that Mets series. Despite him allowing three home runs and five runs total (in just 5 2/3 IP), the team still won. But that was thanks to an offensive explosion (12 runs) that I don't see repeating itself here. That's because Straily has held eight straight opponents to four hits or fewer and has allowed only 28 hits in 48 2/3 IP this season. Righties are hitting only .156 against him and lefties haven't been much better at .173. Meanwhile, Chavez has a career record of 30-45 w/ a 4.55 ERA. He started this year by losing five of his first six decisions.
Bruce Marshall
Cardinals at Rockies
Pick: Rockies
Perhaps because Carlos Martinez is 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA in Denver since 2014, or because he blanked the Giants for nine innings in his last start, or perhaps because Rocks rookie Antonio Sentalzela has faltered in his last two starts, the Cardinals are favored tonight at Coors Field. But Colorado has won in 7 of Sentezela's nine starts and owns the best record in the NL, which are more than enough reasons to back the host Rocks.
SPORTS WAGERS
Oakland +150 over NEW YORK
So much is going well for the Yankees. Aaron Judge has exceeded everyone’s expectations. Aaron Hicks has found another level. Top prospect Gleyber Torres has been promoted to Triple-A. Luis Severino and Michael Pineda are dealing it and many believe that it’s better than even odds that we will see Bryce Harper somewhere in the Yankee outfield in 2019. If feels like the next Yankee dynasty is taking shape but you are going to pay for that now. We’re not going to and one guy that is struggling is Masahiro Tanaka. While much of the market is attributing Tanaka’s poor stats to a slow start, a look deeper says it’s more than that. Tanaka is getting crushed by lefties (.352 OBA), but he’s being hit even more forcefully by righties (.411). Tanaka’s trouble appears to be twofold, as he’s relying less on his two best pitchers — his slider and splitter — decreasing their combined usage from 58% last year to 47% this year. He’s throwing his four-seam fastball more and he’s not locating as well with his fastball and splitter. Too often the splitter isn’t splitting. The pitch is flattening out and catching more plate than Tanaka can afford and this is a park that is unforgiving to pitchers that leave a pitch up and flat in the zone. Furthermore, Tanaka is being worked over by scouts, the media and his coaches. They are all offering advice and telling him why he’s struggling. Tanaka is getting all that pounded into his head 15 different ways and now he’s overthinking everything. His confidence is low and he’ll face a team that has a ton of power.
It may surprise you to learn that the A’s 68 jacks rank fifth highest in MLB and they play in a massive pitcher’s park. The four teams ahead of them play in hitter’s parks. If Oakland played half their games in a hitter’s park, they would be leading MLB in home runs and it might not be close because they are just three off the lead. That bodes well here against Tanaka, who is serving up bombs like crazy.
Kendall Graveman’s first full MLB season last year featured an impressive 2nd half first-pitch growth rate while staying in the game longer (+1.3 IP/G) and maintaining a strong GB tilt. Nothing has changed this year, as his groundball rate is elite at 54% and his first-pitch strike rate is holding up. Graveman’s BB/K split is 14/32 over 47 frames and while we’d like more K’s, his groundball rate compensates for the lack of them. Graveman continues to show improvement in all areas, including ERA and xERA. 3.83 ERA. He’s reliable and getting better while the same cannot be said about Tanaka and now we’re being offered a pretty sweet tag because the Yankees’ stock is soaring once again.
Arizona +104 over MILWAUKEE
The Diamondbacks have won four in a row and nine of 10 while the Brewers have dropped four in a row so we have the hot versus cold angle working in our favor. The Brewers are suddenly struggling after a decent start and one could attribute their struggles to their weakening pitching staff.
Junior Guerra gets this start after being sidelined since leaving his Opening Day start after three innings with a calf strain. He has made two starts on a minor league rehab assignment, pitching into the seventh inning in his most recent start in Triple-A. Guerra will fill the rotation vacancy created when Milwaukee relegated Wily Peralta to the bullpen after making eight largely ineffective starts. Peralta averaged only five innings per start as his relatively poor control and inability to keep the ball in the park proved a flammable mix. Chase Anderson, originally slated for long relief work during spring training, yet forced into the rotation by injuries to other Milwaukee starters, will remain in the rotation.
Guerra went 9-3 with a 2.81 ERA in 122 innings for the Crew last year. This converted infielder spent years in the minors, independent ball, Mexico and Italy before dropping this surprise on everyone. But that's the thing; there's a reason no one expected this and his skills agree. Guerra’s MLB xERA was 4.18 and his command fell in the 2nd half. Therefore our mantra when looking at Guerra will be to look away from that ERA. Zack Godley is another under-the-radar starter worth targeting. Check out his strong skill base during his last four starts last year and first four starts this year: 8.3 K’s/9, 2.4 BB’s/9, and a 56% groundball rate. That elite groundball rate is up to 65% this year with a low 13% line-drive rate. Godley has been especially effective against RH bats and his excellent 13% swing and miss rat gives his current K-rate plenty more upside. Godley is major-league ready and he’s starting to thrive.
COLORADO -1½ +215 over St. Louis
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
9-12 + 12.48 units
Atlanta +107 over SAN FRANCISCO
Jamie Garcia is a 4.00 ERA pitcher and may never be better than that again. He’s a groundball specialist, which is more than enough ammo to back him here. You see, this wager is not about Garcia, it’s about fading a starter that is hanging by a thread.
There are a few starters this year that we’ve targeted to fade every time they take the hill when favored and Matt Cain has to be on that list. Cain has a BB/K split of 14/18 over his last 25 innings. In his last start, he walked three and struck out one. His swing and miss rate is down to 6% on the year and was 4% in his last two starts. His ERA is 4.91 but his xERA of 6.96 is one of three worst xERA’s in the league among qualified starters. As soon as the Giants get some capable arms back, a role change is in order for Cain. He’s headed to the pen at some point for sure. Last year, he was simply awful again with three more DL stints tossed in for good measure. Matt Cain has zero good skills left and if he and the Giants beat us here, good for them but we have to go with the best of it and let the chips fall where they may.
SPORTS WAGERS
Pittsburgh to win Cup +125
Obviously the Penguins have to get by the Senators tonight but we have the Sens +255 to win that series so we can live with an Ottawa Game 7 victory. Should that come to pass, we’ll rip up this ticket but cash just over 5 units so it’ll all work out fine. However, the more likely scenario is that we rip up our Sens ticket, which would then give us a nice bet in the Finals on the Penguins.
Pittsburgh will likely be a very small favorite over the Preds in the finals so there is some decent value here with that bet but first things first. Pittsburgh is very likely headed to the finals for several reasons. First, they have utterly destroyed the Senators in the past two games in terms of time of possession and time spent in the offensive end. Only the play of Craig Anderson prevented the Senators from being eliminated last game. The Penguins are getting stronger with each passing game and they also play a more aggressive style with Matt Murray in goal because they trust him so much more than they trusted Marc Andre Fleury. Lastly, an Ottawa/Nashville final is Gary Bettman’s worse nightmare because it’s a network and ratings nightmare. We would never EVER suggest the game is fixed but nothing needs to be said. In other words, this game is in Pittsburgh and if you think the Sens didn’t get a fair shake in Game 6 in terms of calls, things are going to get worse here. If the game is close, Ottawa will not get any calls in their favor and likely plenty against.
Assuming the Pens move on, we’re going to trust them to run over the Predators. You see, Pittsburgh is a composed, disciplined, experienced and extremely talented team that is going to teach the Predators a lesson, just like they did the Sharks in last year’s Cup finals.
The region that surrounds the Predators is in a hockey frenzy right now. It’s a circus atmosphere that is creating way too much hype on this beatable team but the worst part for Nashville is that the players are getting caught up in it too. With almost a week off after they luckily eliminated the Ducks, the players on Nashville have become local celebrities to a high degree and they’re eating it up. These Preds’ players (and the team itself) have become bigger than life and more popular than Garth Brooks and/or Keith Urban in that region. The players are all smiling, laughing it up, partying with the crowds in the street and it’s going to bite them where the sun don’t shine. This is way too much hype on a team whose focus is being misdirected. The Preds are like that first-time Super Bowl team during “Super Bowl week”. They are being hounded by the media. There are parties everywhere and each player on Nashville is being hounded by friends and family that want to come down to that region and join in on the festivities. They also want tickets. The Super Bowl is lined with teams that got caught up in the hype and then got their asses handed to them in the actual game because of a lack of focus, which is precisely the sense we’re getting from the Preds.
Aside from that, Nashville was absolutely dominated by Anaheim in Game 5 and Game 6 and they were the second best team on the ice in five of the six games overall. Now take away Ryan Johansen and perhaps another center in Mike Fisher and it leaves a gaping hole up in the middle for the Preds. Pittsburgh will exploit that big time. When you look at the progressively better offensive-zone time, the possession time, the shots they had, the traffic in front and the amount of scoring chances that Anaheim had against Nashville, it’s hard to think or trust that it’s not going to get worse against Pittsburgh. The puck simply didn’t go in the net for the Ducks but don’t expect that to last against the sharp-shooting Penguins.
Last year in the Stanley Cup Finals, Pittsburgh wiped the ice with a focused San Jose team that looked so good the entire playoffs prior to getting their asses whooped. We’re strongly suggesting that Nashville is going to take just as bad or more of an ass-kicking and by the time it’s over, the Preds will be shaking in their blue suede skates. Invest with confidence.
We have Ottawa in series @ +255 which affords us the luxury of putting three units down here. If you do not have Ottawa in series, the recommendation is still to bet Pittsburgh now for your traditional wager.
MIKE ANTHONY
St Louis Cardinals vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies +117
Charlie Blackmon swing has been ridiculously good, with a .323. avg and 61 hits, tops on the team. The big Colorado CF has certainly not had any problems making contact. And Colorado has some good overall tools on the team, warrant immediate concern for any pitcher. Colorado at home have been nearly impossible to play well against. 34 yr old Yadier Molina, is not really a very fast player so his infield dinkers are not going to get him too far. Carlos Gonzalez can cover a lot of space in the outfield for Colorado - as he is very quick when getting a bead on a fly ball. Getting base to base for St. Louis has been a struggle as they have been playing 50/50 through the 5.23.17 period. Carlos Martinez has been having a tendency to give up a load of hits - over 9 games - this leaves a great chance for a shelling from a big batting team. Colorado wins here at home as an underdog.
CHIP CHIRIMBES
St Louis Cardinals vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: St Louis Cardinals -115
The Colorado Rockies are known for being a team with a huge home field advantage but have failed miserably on the road, but, things appear to have taken a turn as they are now 18-8 on the road and 15-8 overall in May. St. Louis on the other hand is just 2-6 in their last eight and that makes me wonder why the Cardinals are favored on the road here. Colorado will start Antonio Senzatela (6-1, 3.67 ERA) is 4-1 with a 3.77 ERA at home and yet is an underdog here. The Cards will start Carlos Martinez (3-3, 3.28) who has had five straight quality starts going 3-0 with a 2.31 ERA.
Brandon Lee
Indians -1½ +125
I had a premium play yesterday on the Indians -1.5 with Clevinger on the mound in the series finale against the Reds and I'll fire right back with him in a similar spot in what will be the series opener against division rival KC. Clevinger looks to have finally figured this starter gig out and comes in with a 1.59 ERA in 3 starts and was nearly unhittable in his last outing, giving up just 2 runs with 8 strikeouts in 7 shutout innings on the road against a loaded Astros lineup. Now he faces one of the worst offensive teams in the majors in the Royals, who are scoring a mere 3.3 runs/game and hitting a miserable .213 as a team on the road. On the flip side of this, I look for Cleveland's offense to put up a decent number here, as they go up against the struggling Ian Kennedy, who is 0-2 with a 5.79 ERA in 3 road starts and has an ugly 8.49 ERA over his last 3 outings (Royals are 1-6 in his 7 starts this season).
Jimmy Boyd
Cubs vs. Dodgers
Play: Cubs +123
I really like the value here with the Cubs as a decently priced underdog in the series opener against the Dodgers Friday night. Chicago put their early struggles to rest with an impressive 7-2 homestand and come in having won 3 straight. A big part of their surge has been the offense coming to life with the warmer weather, as the Cubs have hit 26 home runs over their last 14 games.
I know that LA starter Alex Wood is 4-0 with a 2.15 ERA in 7 starts, but he's had his struggles containing this Cubs lineup. He faced them earlier this season in Chicago and didn't even complete 4 innings before getting pulled. Not to mention he's due for a clunker after not giving up a run in 3 straight starts. As for the Cubs, they turn to Jake Arrieta, who has had a disappointing start to the season, but I believe it's only a matter of time before he gets going and he just might have turned the corner in his last start, where he allowed just 5 hits (1 walk) in 6 innings (didn't allow and earned run).
Cubs are 40-14 in Arrieta's last 54 starts after throwing a Quality Start in his previous outing, 21-8 in his last 29 in Game 1 of a series and 37-17 in his last 54 road starts. Dodgers are 2-9 in Wood's last 11 after a Quality Start, 1-6 in his last 7 during Game 1 of a series and 1-4 in his last 5 against a team with a winning record.
JOHN MARTIN
Phillies -132
The Philadelphia Phillies are the right side today even as a decent-sized favorite. They have the edge on the mound and it's not really even close. Aaron Nola is one of the bright young starters in today's game. He is 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA in four starts this season. Nola has faced the Reds twice in his career, posting a 1.29 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in those two starts while allowing only two earned runs in 14 innings. Tim Adleman is 2-2 with a 6.75 ERA in six starts this year, including 0-2 with a monstrous 11.37 ERA in two road starts. The Reds are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Reds are 7-21 in the last 28 meetings in Philadelphia.
DARRYL TUCHOLSKI
Cardinals vs. Rockies
Play: Under 10½
Under is 7-3 in the last 10 games in Colorado. Despite teams adjusting to Senzatela (8 ER in his last 10 IP) Carlos Martinez should keep the score in check from his side, as he's only allowed 6 ER total in his last four outings.
JACK JONES
Orioles vs. Astros
Play: Over 9½
I expect plenty of offensive fireworks from the Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros today to push the final score of this game OVER the posted total of 9.5. These are two below-average starting pitchers against two great lineups, and the wind will be blowing 15 MPH out to straightaway center come gametime.
Kevin Gausman has been awful in 2017, going 2-3 with a 6.66 ERA and 1.859 WHIP in 10 starts. He has been at his worst on the road, going 1-2 with a 9.47 ERA and 2.105 WHIP in five starts away from home. Gausman is also 1-1 with a 6.17 ERA in two career starts against Houston.
Joe Musgrove is 3-4 with a 5.63 ERA and 1.554 WHIP in nine starts this season for the Astros. He has been at his worst at home, going 1-4 with a 6.44 ERA and 1.671 WHIP in six starts. Musgrove gave up eight runs, three homers and 12 base runners over 5 1/3 innings in a 5-13 loss to the Orioles in his only career start against them.
The OVER is 5-1-1 in Gausman's last seven starts overall. The OVER is 12-3 in Astros last 15 games vs. AL East opponents. The OVER is 5-1-1 in Musgrove's last seven starts vs. a team with a winning record.
TEDDY DAVIS
Cardinals vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies +108
The Cardinals are getting a lot of respect here because Martinez is a house hold name. St Kouis isn't exactly lighting it up right now either winning just 2 of their last 7 games. Martinez has also pitched his worse on the road this season with a 5.51 road ERA.
The Rockies send out Senzatela who has been very impressive to say the least with a 6-1 record in 9 starts and a 3.67 ERA. Also worth noting his last two home starts came against the Dodgers and Cubs he has no problem winning both of those
DAVE PRICE
Minnesota Twins +128
The Twins have been one of the most profitable teams to back in all of baseball this season. They are 25-18 on the year with +7.8 units of profit. They are 6-1 in their last 7 games overall and we're getting a great price on them again tonight as home dogs to the Tampa Bay Rays. Hector Santiago is 3-0 with a 3.07 ERA in 5 home starts this year for the Twins. Chris Archer is 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA in 4 road starts for the Rays. Santiago is 9-1 against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. The Rays are 5-23 in Archer's last 28 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Twins are 9-1 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series.