Check out Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Monday, August 1st, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Bruce Marshall
Boston +115
These teams enter tonight off of disparate bits of momentum, with Boston rallying for 5 runs in the 9th to turn over the Angels on Sunday, while the Mariners blew a 6-0 lead vs. the Cubs. More encouraging efforts since the All-Star break for Bosox starter Eduardo Rodriguez, and some value in this number vs. Seattle starter James Paxton, whose OBA of .306 suggests trouble for the Mariners.
Stephen Nover
Milwaukee -100
Some teams are just plain bad on the road. Milwaukee is one such team, which I acknowledge. Yet I see value on the Brewers, opening as underdogs to the Padres.
Both are in heavy rebuild mode. San Diego's offense is down the recently departed Matt Kemp and Melvin Upton. The Brewers have been without Ryan Braun the past four games due to a sore right side. Yet Milwaukee has won each of those games and is hopeful of getting Braun back for this game.
San Diego has dropped nine of its last 13 games. But what puts me into action here is the Padres being favored in a pitching matchup of Jimmy Nelson against Jarred Cosart.
Nelson is the superior pitcher with a far higher ceiling. He has been up and down this season, but finished July with a 2.83 ERA. He has a 1.83 career mark versus San Diego in three starts. The Brewers should be extra motivated to get Nelson a win after they played their worst game of the season in his last start.
This is Cosart's San Diego debut. He was terrible in four starts with the Marlins this season going 0-1 with a 5.95 ERA. He was sent down to Triple-A where he had a losing record and 4.09 ERA, while averaging just five innings per start.
Put simply, I'm not a fan of Cosart. I also much prefer the Brewers' bullpen over the Padres.
Rob Vinciletti
Nationals vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Nationals -185
The Nationals are 14-5 as a road favorite in this range and have Strasburg going. They have won 7 of his 8 road starts and he has a 1.72 road Era. Bradley for Arizona has a 5.15 home era. The Diamondbacks are 0-4 as a home dog in this range and Washington fits a solid 88% system in this game direct from the database. Look or the Nationals to take the opener.
Mike Lundin
Yankees +103
The New York Yankees will visit the New York Mets for the annual Subway Series starting Monday night. The Mets are just 2-8 in their last 10 home at Citi Field and this looks like a reasonable price on the Bronx Bombers.
Left-hander CC Sabathia (6-8, 3.95 ERA) will take the ball for the Yankees. He's 4-2 with a 3.22 ERA in seven career starts against the Mets and off a solid start at Houston where he held the Astros to a pair of runs on four hits in 6 2/3 innings of work. Sabathia is 5-3 with a 3.28 ERA in 10 starts outside of Yankee Stadium this season.
The Mets turn to Logan Verrett (3-6, 4.12) who will face the Yankees for the first time. Mets are 1-6 in Verrett's last seven starts and Yankees are 7-3 in their last 10 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
The Mets snapped a four-game losing streak with a 6-4 win against the Rockies on Sunday, but they're 0-7 in their last seven games following a win.
Scott Spreitzer
Yankees vs. Mets
Play: Mets -105
The New York Yankees, losers of four in a row, have essentially packed it in after trading two of their top relievers, Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller. The Yankees were swept in Tampa Bay and now they face the Mets with C.C. Sabathia, who has given up 31 earned runs and 50 hits in 41 2/3 innings his last seven starts. In two appearances last year against the Mets, Sabathia allowed eight runs and 14 hits in 11 innings. Logan Verrett has had three decent starts in a row allowing seven runs in 18 1/3 innings. Verrett has a 3.29 ERA at home compared to 5.00 on the road. The Yankees have scored a total of eight runs their last four games and they're 28th in the major leagues with a .700 OPS.
Marc Lawrence
Kansas City at Tampa Bay
Play: Kansas City +106
Edges - Royals: Danny Duffy 8-2 team starts at night; and 11-4 last 15 team starts during August. Rays: Archer: 0-5 versus A.L. Central; and 1-7 last 8 overall team starts. With Duffy 6-0 with a 3.00 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP his last six team starts, look for the Royals to improve to 16-3 the last 19 games in this series here tonight. We recommend a 1* play ion Kansas City.
Larry Ness
Yankees vs. Mets
Pick: Mets
The Mets and Yankees begin a four-game Subway Series tonight at Citi Field. I guess a Mets/Yankees series always creates a certain sense of ‘buzz’ but the 54-50 Mets hardly look like the defending NL champs and many say the 52-52 Yankees have shelved any postseason hopes with the recent trades of Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miler. However, the Yankees insist they are not giving up on this season. "We needed to have an extreme return for us to complete and finalize," general manager Brian Cashman told reporters. "We're very excited by what we got. But this is very difficult. A lot of tough discussions internally over a player that was very difficult to move."
A check of the standings reveal that the Mets are in third-place in the NL East (6 1/2 games behind the first-place Nats) and open the week 2 1/2 games behind the Marlins in the race for the second National League wild card spot. The Yankees are seven games out in the AL East (in fourth-place), as well as 5 1/2 games out of the second wild card spot with THREE teams ahead of them. The Mets send Logan Verrett (3-6, 4.12 ERA) to the mound up against the Yankees’ C.C. Sabathia (6-8, 3.95 ERA). Verrett has never faced the Yankees while Sabathia is 4-2 with a 3.22 ERA in seven career starts against the Mets (teams are 5-2).
Verrett is looking for his first win since earning a win since a scoreless relief appearance against Cincinnati way back on April 26. Just NINE of Verrett’s 27 appearances this season have been starts but note that he has been solid since the All Star break in three starts. He has yet to receive a decision in any of those starts since July 16 but has posted a 3.44 ERA in that span. Taking in all of Verrett’s home appearances (16 appearances, including three starts), he’s 2-3 with a 3.29 ERA (team is 1-2 in his starts).
Sabathia snapped a six-start winless streak in his last outing, holding the the Astros to two runs on four hits over 6.2 innings in a 6-3 win this past Tuesday. However, Sabathia had struggled badly in his previous six starts, allowing at least four ERs in each of them, posting a 7.46 ERA. This marks the first-ever between the two teams in the month of August and my bet says Game 1 goes to the home team.
Power Sports
Milwaukee vs. San Diego
Pick: San Diego
Milwaukee arrives out on the West Coast fresh off a surprising sweep (at home) of Pittsburgh over the weekend. The result of that is a better value on the Padres for Monday's series opener. Despite the weekend results, the Brew Crew shouldn't fool anyone here. This remains a bad baseball teams, particularly on the road, where they're just 17-31. That's tied for the fewest number of road wins in all of baseball.
San Diego failed to score much over the weekend, managing only four runs in three games against the Reds. They did pick up a win Saturday. You'll recall it was a surprisingly good start to the second half (swept Giants), but since then they've lost 9 of their last 13. Still though, I can't help but think the home team is a little underpriced in this one. It's not like Milwaukee has played any better over the course of the season. San Diego has a slightly better run differential.
For the two starters here, we saw very different results in the respective last outings. The Brewers' Jimmy Nelson was rocked - at home - by Arizona as he gave up eight runs in 4 2/3 innings. San Diego's Jared Cosart tossed five scoreless innings of three-hit ball against Philadelphia, his first start in three months. It was a hard-luck no decision (team lost 4-0), so his fortune is due to turn. Seeing as the Padres managed to split a four-game set at Miller Park earlier this year, they should fare better this week.
Jim Feist
Yankees at Mets
Pick: Under
The Mets snapped a four game losing streak on Sunday with a win over the Rockies, 6-4. The Mets need wins to keep pace in the NL East and the Wild Card races. Meanwhile, the Yankees bring a four-game losing streak into tonight's contest. The Yankees were swept at Tampa Bay, scoring just seven runs in the process. CC Sabathia starts tonight. The veteran is coming off a good start, allowing just two runs over 6.2 innings. The Mets start Logan Verrett, who is also coming off some very good starts. Verrett has allowed three runs or less in each of his last three starts. This series has been a very good UNDER play, with 19 of the last 26 meetings going UNDER. The Mets are also a very good Under team, posting a 5-16-1 O/U/P mark their last on grass. I like this game UNDER tonight. Neither team is hitting all that well and both pitchers are coming off some very good starts.
Chase Diamond
Royals at Rays
Play: Rays
This game features two teams one of which is selling at the trade deadline the 49-55 Royals face off with the 42-61 Rays. Chris Archer is on the trade block and that is my only worry for tonight so make sure you check off that he must start in your wager. Chris is starting to get back into form this guy is a stud that is just having a rough year. Archer is 0-3 all-time versus the Royals I'm sure he is aware of this and will be motivated to beat them at home tonight. Only 35% of the public is backing the home team here but this line is really moving the other way pushing the squares towards the Royals.
David Banks
Yankees vs. Mets
Pick: Mets+102
It’s a perfect time for a Subway Series. In the first of four games, two at Citi Field and two at Yankee Stadium, the Mets and Yankees will try and fix what has been going wrong for both teams over the last week. The Mets have lost four straight, including dropping a three-game series to the super-hot Colorado Rockies. The Yankees haven’t fared much better dropping three in a row. They will try and get back on the winning track on Sunday at Tampa Bay.
The Mets will start righthander Logan Verrett, who just can’t seem to get a break. He is just 3-6 on the season and has pitched well in his last three outings, all no decisions. Against St. Louis last Wednesday, Verrett went seven innings allowing just five hits and three runs, but closer Jeurys Familia blew an opportunity for a save.
Verrett will go up against C.C. Sabathia who at age 36 still has some fuel left in the tank. The big lefty beat Houston last week giving up just four hits and two earned runs in 6.2 innings. Sabathia will go up against a Mets lineup whose star, Yoenis Cespedes, is struggling. In the past week, the Mets centerfielder has hit just .182 (4-for-22). Cespedes leads the Mets with a .291 batting average, 22 home runs, and 58 RBIs. Second baseman Neil Walker has been picking up some of the slack though. He is 9-for-18 over the past seven days. Whoever it is, the Mets need to produce some runs. They have scored just eight total in their past four games.
The Yankees have scored just five times total in their three-game losing skid. They will look to Carlos Beltran (.301, 21 HR, 62 RBIs) to lead their offensive attack. The Subway Series moves to Yankee Stadium on Wednesday.
Jesse Schule
Royals vs. Rays
Play: Over 7
We see an extraordinarily low total in tonight's game between the Royals and the Rays at The Trop. Chris Archer will toe the rubber for the Rays, and he's having a challenging season to say the least. Archer (5-14, 4.42 ERA) allowed three runs on four hit over seven innings in a loss at LA his last time out. He's really struggled in previous clashes with the Royals. He allowed five runs on eight hits and two walks over six innings in a loss at Kauffman earlier this year, and the Royals lineup is batting .373 over 83 at bats against him. The Royals hand the ball to Danny Duffy, who has pitched quite well of late. Duffy (6-1, 3.22 ERA) allowed three runs on seven hits and two walks over six innings in a home win over the Angels his last time out. He gave up three runs on seven hits in a winning effort against the Rays earlier this year. These teams have gone over the total in eight of the last 10 meetings, and the over is 10-2 in the Royals last 12 versus a team with a losing record. The once mighty Kansas City bullpen has been rather average of late, slipping from first to eighth in ERA by reliever.
Ray Monohan
Kansas City Royals +115
The Royals open a series in Tampa on Monday night and the visitors from Kansas City hold some value here. The Royals catch plus money and throw a red hot Danny Duff here. Duffy is 6-0 with a 3.00 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in his last 6 starts overall.
He'll face Chris Archer, who has a lot of distractions to deal with. Archer is at the center of just about every rumor out there, which has to get into his head. He has no idea whether he'll even make this start, with the deadline today.
Some trends to consider. Royals are 6-2 in Duffys last 8 Monday starts. Royals are 15-6 in Duffys last 21 starts during game 1 of a series.
At plus money here, Kansas City is the move. They have the value and with Duffy hot on the mound, Kansas City gets the edge.
Brandon Lee
Royals vs. Rays
Play: Rays -125
Tampa Bay is worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Royals. Kansas City is in a free fall at the moment, as they have lost 8 of their last 9. A big part of their struggles, is their inability to score runs on a consistent basis. The Royals are hitting just .190 as a team over their last 7 games. I know it's been a disappointing season for Tamp Bay's Chris Archer, but this is prime spot for him to dominate. Keep in mind that Archer has looked much better of late with a 3.10 ERA and 0.885 WHIP over his last 3 outings. He's also got a very good 2.95 ERA in 10 home starts.