Jimmy Boyd
Yankees vs. Mets
Play: Mets +101
The Mets are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Yankees. New York has thrown in the towel on this season with the recent trades they have made and could pull off a couple more prior to this game starting. I know this is a big rivalry, but I just don't think the Yankees are all that interested in playing hard at the moment.
The Mets on the other are desperate for a win and this is too good a price to get them at home to pass up. Mets will send out Logan Verrett, who has pitched much better of late. Verrett has a 3.44 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in his last 3 starts and is coming off one of his better starts against the Cardinals at home, where he gave up just 3 runs on 5 hits with 7 strikeouts in 7 innings.
Yankees will counter with C.C. Sabathia. He pitched well in his last start, but I don't trust him down the stretch. Prior to his last outing, Sabathia had gone six straight starts where he allowed at least 4 earned runs.
Mets are 24-9 in their last 33 after 3 straight games with 7 or less hits and the Yankees are 3-11 in their last 14 road games after scoring 3 runs or less in 2 straight games.
Kevin Rogers
Yankees vs. Mets
Play: Mets -104
The Yankees have dropped four straight games since taking the first two at Houston last week, as New York was swept over the weekend at Tampa Bay. The Bronx Bombers return to New York City as they begin the annual "Subway Series" with the Mets at Citi Field. CC Sabathia picked up an underdog win his last time out at Houston, but the former Cy Young winner has allowed at least 4 ER in six of his past seven starts. Logan Verrett counters for the Mets, as the right-handed pitched well in his last start against the Cardinals, surviving a three-run third inning to toss seven innings and allow five hits and 3 ER as the Mets' bullpen couldn't hold on in a 5-4 loss. The Yankees are just 2-6 on the road in interleague play this season as I'll back the Mets to grab the home opener.
Dave Essler
Toronto +100
I do not agree with the initial move - and this IS with Fister pitching. I get that Fister COULD be high on adrenaline with the whole paternity thing - but he just can't be TOTALLY focused on a baseball, I wouldn't think. Even if he is, Toronto has had some success against him individually - albeit very small sample. Plus, Houston is in that dreaded first-game-back situation that I just don't like. Fister has been somewhat more hittable of late, and his splits show he's been far better on the road than at home. We've tried to fade Stroman once too often. He's more of a ground ball pitcher and that's the type Houston can have trouble against, seeing as how they're a HR hitting/scoring team more often than not. Houston's pen has been suspect lately - Toronto's is, if nothing else, stable. Valbuena is OUT for Houston, while Tulowitzki is questionable. He (Tulowitzki) hasn't done much with Fister, so it's not a deal-breaker if he's out. My only caveat here is that Brett Cecil MIGHT be unavailable having pitched in the last two games - leaving only Franklin Morales as a LHP out of the pen. Toronto is above .500 on the road - and far more effective this season against RHP - so we'll go with it.
Scott Delane
Let's side with the San Diego Padres against the Milwaukee Brewers tonight, as my free play looks at a team with the best of the pitching matchup tonight.
San Diego's Jarred Cosart was one of the seven players moved in Friday’s blockbuster deal with Miami. The right-hander is set to make his Padres debut versus Milwaukee tonight, and I think he'll be at his best for this start.
He’s never pitched in Petco Park, and he’s faced the Brewers once, tossing six innings of one-run ball. He will make quite a statement against this lineup.
And I think he'll get run support against Milwaukee's Jimmy Nelson, who gave up eight runs in his last start versus Arizona. Of course, thanks to five errors behind him, only two of them were earned. Nevertheless, Milwaukee is 9-12 in his starts this year. He'll struggle in this one.
Take the Padres here and list both.
3* PADRES
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the Indians on the Run Line over the Twins.
Cleveland sure looks like the team to beat in the American League, and tonight I like them to beat Minnesota by at least 2 runs.
The Indians just swept 3 at home from Oakland, and they won all 3 games by at least 2 runs. More of the same tonight when Danny Salazar takes the mound.
Cleveland has gone 10-1 the last 11 times Salazar has started, and he does own a 3-2 career mark against Minny with a 3.63 ERA.
The Twins will start Jose Berrios who is back up from Triple A. In 4 starts this season, Berrios is 1-1 with an enormous 10.20 ERA.
Tribe roll right along.
Cleveland on the Run Line for Monday.
4* CLEVELAND -1.5
Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is on the Cleveland Indians, as I think they will annihilate the Minnesota Twins in this American League Central clash.
The Indians are surviving atop the Central division, and come into this one having won three in a row. The Tribe is also 30-17 at home this season. They need to keep their momentum going with the Tigers catching fire, and just 4 1/2 games back of Cleveland. The Indians are 4-1, including a three-game sweep of the A's, on this nine-game homestand.
The Twins are in after a series with the White Sox, ending with yesterday's 6-4 win. But the Twinkies are just 17-32 on the road this seasonm and sit in the cellar. They've split their last 10 and could be in big trouble with this series.
The Indians open a five-game trip with a three-game series against the Yankees, starting Friday night at Yankee Stadium, so finishing this homestand on a streak is essential.
2* INDIANS -1.5
Brad Wilton
My comp play for Monday is the Yankees in the opener of this year's Subway Series against the Mets.
Both teams struggling right now, as the Yanks have lost their last 4, while the Mets have dropped 6 of their last 9.
The Yankees took 3 of 4 from the Mets in last year's series, and it has been the team from the Bronx with the overall 6-2 mark the last 8 in the rivalry.
CC Sabathia is 4-2 with a 3.22 ERA in his 7 career starts against the Mets, while Logan Verrett is making his first start in the Subway Series.
Lean towards the Yanks in the opener just a smidge.
1* N.Y. YANKEES
Jack Jones
Kansas City Royals +119
The Kansas City Royals are highly motivated for a victory Monday after going through one of their worst stretches of the season. They have lost four straight and eight of their last nine overall. Meanwhile, the Rays are in a letdown spot here after sweeping the Yankees at home over the weekend.
I give the edge on the mound to the Royals and Danny Duffy, who has gone 6-1 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in 14 starts this season. Duffy has been at his best away from home, going 3-1 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.018 WHIP in six road starts this year.
Chris Archer certainly has been off his game all season, going 5-14 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.350 WHIP in 22 starts this year. Archer has never beaten the Royals, going 0-3 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in four career starts against them. He has allowed 13 earned runs over 12 innings in his last two starts against Kansas City.
The Royals are 6-0 in Duffy's last six starts overall. The Rays are 11-29 in their last 40 games overall. Tampa Bay is 7-19 in Archer's last 26 starts. The Rays are 0-6 in Archer's last six home starts.
Dave Price
Boston Red Sox +104
The Key: The Boston Red Sox picked up a much-needed win last night as they came back from 3-0 down in the 9th inning to win 5-3 over the Angels. Now they carry that momentum into Seattle, which blew a 6-0 lead to the Cubs last night on ESPN to lose in the 12th inning. This is a great spot for the Red Sox because of it. Plus, Eduardo Rodriquez has gotten things figured out of late, going 1-1 with a 3.06 ERA in his last 3 starts. James Paxton is 3-5 with a 4.27 ERA in 11 starts, 1-2 with a 4.82 ERA in 5 home starts, and 1-2 with a 5.29 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Red Sox are 4-1 in Rodriquez's last 5 road starts. The Mariners are 1-6 in Paxton's last 7 home starts.
SPORTS WAGERS
Miami +161 over CHICAGO
Adam Conley drew some buzz from scouts this spring but he’s somewhat fallen off the radar because he hasn’t lived up to the hype but he’s certainly taking steps in the right direction. Conley gets plenty of swings and misses, as seen by his stellar swing and miss rate of 12%. His groundball rate has progressively increased over the past three months. In his last start, Conley had a 47% groundball rate to go along with an 83% first-pitch strike rate. He has 27 K’s over his last 30 innings and he’s 3-0 over his last five starts with an ERA/xERA split of 1.82/3.81.Whether or not Conley thrives here remains to be seen, as anything he throws today, be it good, poor or otherwise would not surprise us one bit. What we know for sure is that the Cubbies are still overpriced daily and these Marlins are dangerous enough to get our attention.
In 19 starts, Kyle Hendricks has 10 pure quality starts. That’s about half. He also has nine wins and seven losses over that span, which is also near 50/50. Hendricks does not possess the raw stuff that others have. That lack of flash hasn't limited his effectiveness but he’s not elite either. Hendricks throws strikes and tries to keep hitters off balance with an assortment of pitches. Sometimes it works and sometimes it does not. Hendricks fastball averages 87 MPH. It remains to be seen if he can sustain top-tier command but Hendricks is a legit starter that every team in baseball would love to have. What he is not is a legit 2.39 ERA pitcher and that ERA will head north as soon as his 27% hit-rate and 81% strand rate inevitably normalizes. Hendricks is good but his ERA combined with the team he plays for has him way overpriced here.
SAN DIEGO +104 over Milwaukee
Jarred Cosart was acquired by the San Diego Padres in the deal for Andrew Cashner and Colin Rea. The Pads continue to acquire prospects that are years from their MLB debut (1B Josh Naylor) or injured (Carter Capps) by dealing from a rotation that had nothing particularly interesting in the way of depth. One-time prospect Cosart is in the rotation immediately. He was coming off five shutout innings in his best MLB game of the season for Miami at the time of the trade but that means little. Cosart had been able to post only a 4.14 ERA with a 30/25 K/BB in 59 IP at Triple-A New Orleans prior to be called up. It may also be worth noting that Cosart had a 62% groundball rate in that last start as well. However, Jarred Cosart is not the bet here.
Who the f**k are the Brewers to be favored on the road with Jimmy Nelson pitching? Nelson does have a 3.42 ERA after 21 starts, which instantly makes us sellers because it is not legit. Nelson is still plagued by shoddy control with 55 walks in 124 frames. Though his strikeout rate is essentially unchanged from 2015, the drop in his swing and miss rate to 7% is worrisome, as it implies downside. Part of this decrease can be attributed to Nelson throwing his best swing-and-miss pitches (slider and four-seamer) less and his sinker more compared to 2015. The issues vs. LHB have persisted but have been obscured due to a fortunate 22% hit rate against them. Luck with hit% (29%) and strand% (80%) has played a major role in his misleading ERA, as evidenced by Nelson’s xERA of 4.96. Don’t be swayed by Nelson’s decent ERA, as he’s a lucky pitcher with nothing but blowup potential ahead.
Don Anthony
Boston Red Sox +108
Solid situational spot here to play on the Red Sox and fade the Mariners. Boston comes into this game with some momentum by scoring 5 runs in the 9th inning last night, after trailing by 3 to the Angels. Seattle will be down in the dumps and kicking themselves after blowing a 6 run lead to eventually lose in extras in Chicago. The M's now have to travel back home from Chicago, ending their road trip late last night. Boston comes in from LA, so it's less travel for them even though they are the visitors. The Mariners send out James Paxton and they have not done well with him starting at home. They are just 1-6 in his last 7 home starts and is 0-4 pitching on 4 days rest.
The Prez
Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners
Play: Boston Red Sox +108
The Boston Red Sox are locked and loaded for a successful August with a primary focus of being crowned American League East champs. The Red Sox lost five of six contests before closing the month of July with a 5-3 triumph over the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday afternoon. Veterans of diamond wars like Dustin Pedroia, who crushed a three-run home run in Sunday's win extended his hitting streak to 11 games. while Clay Buchholz earned the win out of the bullpen in relief of Steven Wright with three hitless innings. Buchholz (4-9) permitted just one baserunner on a walk while striking out one batter.
Seattle's bullpen couldn't hold a comfortable four run lead in the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball event at Wrigley Field. Three bottom of the ninth innings runs prevented the Mariners from having a winning eight-game road trip. The American League West squad held a six-run lead over the Chicago Cubs after three innings but fell 7-6 to the team with the best record in baseball in 12 frames.
The traveling Red Sox send lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (2-4, 6.51 ERA) to the Safeco Field to face the Mariners southpaw James Paxton (3-5, 4.27)
The Boston Red Sox aim to take August by storm and the receive a travel three time zones to face a tired and defeated Seattle club coming off an extra-innings heartbreaker at Wrigley Field. The Blood Sox Eduardo Rodriguez to the hill on a nice run. The lefty has given up a total of six runs in 17 2/3 frames over his last three outings. M's starter Paxton contained the Boston offense in May (5 hits over 8 scoreless innings but the team likely won't have a positive posture tonight at Safeco Field). Expect the Red Sox to continue their red hot roll. Play is on the visiting Boston Red Sox
Tony Finn
Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -123
The Rays have an opportunity to keep a positive trend going on Monday night when they host a injury riddled and slumping Kansas City Royals squad. Tampa has a chance to win their fifth straight, a season high if they continue with their current form, and they send their ace, Chris Archer to the mound against Royals southpaw Danny Duffy.
Royals
KC has been dismal away from Kaufman Stadium this year registering a porous 17-36 record as a visitor. While Duffy has won five consecutive decisions over a nine-start stretch he faces a Tampa offense that has done their best work against left-handers. Their offensive splits offer the largest descrency of failure to success, when examining when the team faces right-handed pitching compared to that of left-handers. Duffy faces a lineup that is hitting .268 with an on-base percentage of .342 and a stellar .789 OPS versus southpaws.
Rays
Tamaa has a lot to play for, considering they are far removed from postseason competition. They aim to continue their winning ways while aiming to extend their current streak to five straight wins. Their primary pitching rotation has executed a span of 10 quality starts in their last 11 games. Archer may not appear to be in good form when looking at his surface numbers, but the young gun has pitched well since the All-Star break, allowing seven runs over 20-plus innings that includes 25 strikeouts. The Rays righty is one of the American League leaders in strikeouts recording 155 in 130 1/3 innings of work.
The Royals' starting rotation has given up 105 homers this season and Duffy faces a batting order that has hit 26 home runs and 85 extra-base hits against southpaws in 798 at bats this season.