Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Monday, August 15th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Sleepyj
Boston / Cleveland Over 9
Well the Redsox decided to finally start hitting the ball...A few days late for my backers, but getting this over 9 runs seems reasonable....Indians will send out Tomlin and he hasn't been all that good in the 2nd half of the season..His last two games might have been his worst of the season and he looks to be tiring down the stretch...He has lasted a combined 8 innings his last two game s and has surrendered a total of 14 ER on 17 hits...He hasn't been sharp and facing Boston won't easy here..He should give up a fair amount here to the Redsox...Boston will send out Pomeranz...He hasn't been great either..His last game was decent, but his prior 4 or 5 starts lacked an all-star outing...Now on the road things will get interesting....He was fortunate to get a bunch of starts at home..Indians will be looking to matchup here with Boston...Redsox bullpen IMO stinks and the Indians can keep this close or win outright..10 runs seems like a doable number..I'll take a shot here with the over.
Rob Vinciletti
Nationals vs. Rockies
Play: Nationals -170
The Nationals have won 6 of the last 8 here in Colorado and 7 of 9 as a road favorite in this range. Colorado has lost 8 of 10 as a home dog in this range. Road favorites of 140 or more off a home favored win, scoring 5+ runs are 11-0 the last few years vs a team off a road loss like the Rockies. Scherzer has a solid 2.96 road era and Delarosa has a 5.63 era. Nationals take the opener.
Art Aronson
Athletics vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers -160
Setting the scene: Veteran Ross Detwiler was impressive in his first MLB start of 2016, but we think he’s in store for some regression tonight. Martin Perez has been inconsistent this year, but has done well in this spot. For a number of different reasons, we think the home side is worth the price of admission tonight.
Detwiler: He’s 1-0 with a 2.13 ERA. Detwiler was horrible in Triple-A and in seven relief appearances for the Indians, but turned it around vs. the Orioles on Wednesday, throwing eight shutout innings. After that gem, we feel that there’s only one way the overachieving Detwiler’s performance can go.
Perez: He’s 7-8 with a 4.22 ERA. Perez comes in with some momentum after holding Colorado to a single run off four hits over 5.2 innings in Wednesday. Perez is just 1-7 with a 6.00 ERA on the road this year, but a near-perfect 6-1 with a 2.47 ERA in front of the home town crowd.
The bottom line: Perez has proven himself at home all season, while the book is clearly still out on Detwiler. If you don’t mind laying chalk, consider a second look at the Rangers in this one.
Marc Lawrence
Miami at Cincinnati
Play: Miami -120
Edges - Marlins: David Phelps 3-0 away career team starts during August. Reds: Brandon Finnegan 6.11 ERA with 1.61 WHIP last 7 overall starts, and 7-13 team starts as a dog this season. With that look for the Marlins to make it 6 straight wins in this series here tonight. We recommend a 1* play on Miami.
John Ryan
San Diego at Tampa Bay
Play: San Diego +159
The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tampa Bay is just 12-30 (-19.5 Units) against the money line facing a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season; 16-29 (-17.7 Units) against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season; 28-40 (-19.6 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. SD is a solid 27-21 (+18.1 Units) against the money line after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season.
Frank Jordan
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians -110
Cleveland put up a pair of runs in the 5th and 6th to jump out ahead for good over LA Angels yesterday to sweep the four game set. Boston had an onslaught of homeruns including three from Mookie Betts to win 16-2 to sweep Arizona. Today these two teams come in both in a playoff position with the Indians in first place in the AL Central and Boston in the second wildcard spot. On the mound Boston has Drew Pomeranz who is 0-2 since coming to Boston and the team is 2-3 when he has pitched. His overall numbers are 8-9 with a 3.03 ERA and on the road he is 4-5 with a 2.88 ERA. Josh Tomlin is throwing for Cleveland and he is 11-5 with a 4.18 ERA. At home he is 5-2 with a 4.33 ERA. Look for a little bit of a slugfest in this one between two strong offensive teams with the home team Indians pulling out the victory 7-5 when the dust settles.
Power Sports
New York vs. Arizona
Pick: New York
These teams just met last week in Queens and Arizona pulled off an improbable sweep. Or maybe it wasn't so improbably given the D'backs' unique home-road split for 2016. On the road, this team is a competitive 29-30. But, in the desert, they are a horrific 19-39. With this one taking place at Chase Field, I'll call for the Mets to gain revenge.
New York is off B2B wins over San Diego and almost got a no-hitter on Sunday from Steven Matz. I like Bartolo Colon's chances here against Arizona. Last week saw him hold the D'backs to only one run over 7 IP, his second straight start allowing just 1 ER. Portly as he may be, Colon has been a viable option for the Metropolitans this year. Arizona is the only team he's never been in his career, so motivation won't be an issue.
Colon will again face Robbie Ray, who was fantastic last Wednesday. He didn't give up any runs and didn't walk anybody in seven innings (allowed just three hits). But he still has a 4.50 ERA and 1.445 WHIP in 23 starts (7-16 TSR). I do not anticipate him duplicating the previous performance. Did I mention that the D'backs are just 19-39 at home this season? Or how about the fact they were just swept up in Boston? Sunday saw them lose 16-2, a new low in a very bad season for this ballclub.
Larry Ness
Miami vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati
The 48-68 Reds own one of MLB’s worst records but they’ve gone 16-11 since the All Star break, winning SEVEN of nine series in that span. Miami ended a three-game losing streak with a 5-4 win against the Chicago White Sox on Sunday and at 61-56, are 8 1/2 games behind Washington in the NL East. However, they are in the thick of the NL wild card race with St Louis , Pittsburgh and the NY Mets. The Marlins currently trail the Cards for the No. 2 spot by a half-game, while being up by one game on the Pirates and by two over the Mets. The Marlins’ playoff path became much tougher on Sunday though, with the team placing Giancarlo Stanton (groin) and pitcher Adam Conley (finger tendonitis) on the 15-day disabled list. An MRI revealed Stanton has a Grade 3 groin strain, putting the rest of the season in jeopardy for him. "The best-case scenario is a six-week return," Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill said Sunday. "There's still an opportunity to get (Stanton) back before the end of the season, but it was a significant injury." Stanton has 25 HRs, 70 RBI and a slugging percentage of .497 this season.
The Marlins need to take advantage of this four-game series in Cincinnati and Monday’s opener features David Phelps (5-6, 2.40 ERA) taking on Brandon Finnegan (7-8, 4.45 ERA). Phelps is making his third start since joining the rotation (his first 50 appearances this season came as a reliever) and was sharp in his first two chances, allowing a total of one run in 9.1 innings. He took the loss against San Francisco on Wednesday despite surrendering just one run in five innings. He has scattered nine hits across 14.1 innings in his last six appearances with 18 Ks. Phelps is making his fourth career start against Cincinnati and is 1-2 with a 3.43 ERA in five appearances against the Reds (teams are 1-2 in his starts). Finnegan is facing the Marlins for the first time in his career and is making a team-high 24th start in 2016.
Phelps has had a bounce-back season in 2016 out of the bullpen but I don’t much trust him in the role of a starter. Meanwhile, Finnegan has allowed just three ERs on 12 hits over his last three starts (18 innings for a 1.50 ERA) and as noted earlier, the Reds have been playing solid baseball since the break. The loss of Stanton could be a ‘back breaker’ for Miami plus note that Phelps saw his teams (Miami in 2015 and the NYY Yankees in 2014) go 12-24 in his 36 starts over that two-year span. The bet is on the home dog.
Jim Feist
Miami at Cincinnati
Pick: Under
The Marlins might be a longshot to win their division, but they are right in the thick of things in the Wild Card race. Miami is tied with the Cardinals for the 2nd NL Wild Card spot right now, one game ahead of Pittsburgh and two games ahead of the Mets. The Marlins snapped a two game losing streak on Sunday, taking the final game of their series with the White Sox, 5-4. David Phelps makes a rare start today for the fish. Phelps has been in 52 games this season, but started just two times. Phelps has been solid out of the pen, posting a 2.40 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Phelps two starts have been very good, allowing just one run over 9.1 innings. Brandon Finnegan starts for the Reds. Finnegan is 7-8 with a 4.45 ERA, but has three straight quality starts. Finnegan has allowed just three runs over his last 18 innings and has won four of his last five decisions. Miami has gone UNDER in four of the last five starts by Phelps on the road. In addition, seven of the last 10 meetings between these clubs have gone under.
Chase Diamond
Pirates vs Giants
Play: Pirates
Big game between the 59-56 Pirates and the 66-51 Giants. Pirates have been playing well 6-4 in they're last 10 games and off a big 11-3 blowout of the Dodgers. Ryan Vogelsong has looked very good despite his 1-2 record since his return to the big leagues. He has a 2.67 ERA through 33.2 innings pitched. He faces off with Matt Moore 2-10 team starts at night. Pirates are also 5-1 last 6 games in San Francisco this team has proven to be comfortable on the west coast. Look for a little extra motivation from Vogelsong to get a win against his old team.
Mike Lundin
Miami at Cincinnati
Play: Miami -131
The Miami Marlins will be without their star slugger, Giancarlo Stanton, who's out with a groin strain. I still like the Fish to claim the opener of a four-game set with the Reds at Cincinnati tonight.
Miami hands the ball to David Phelps (5-6, 2.40 ERA) who started the season as a reliever, but he's been excellent since joining the rotation with just one run conceded while covering 9 1/3 innings over two starts. Phelps is making his fourth career start against Cincinnati and he's posted a solid 3.43 ERA in his previous five outings against the Reds.
Cincinnati turns to left-hander Brandon Finnegan (7-8, 4.45). He was reached for three runs on six hits and six walks in six innings at St. Louis his last time out. He's taking on the Marlins for the first time in his career, and I think several Marlins hitters will raise their game with Stanton possibly out for the season to give Finnegan a rough time tonight.
The Marlins are 4-1 in their last five road games vs. a left-handed starter and the Reds are 3-7 in Finnegan's last 10 home starts.
Brandon Lee
Red Sox -110
Boston is worth a look here as a small road favorite in Monday's afternoon clash against the Indians. The Red Sox have won 3 straight behind an offensive explosion, scoring 31 runs on 38 hits. They are in a great spot to keep it going at the plate, as they face the struggling Josh Tomlin. In Tomlin's last 2 starts, he's given up 14 runs on 17 hits in just 8 2/3 innings of work. Cleveland is just 1-7 in their last 8 against the AL East, while Boston is a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 series openers.
Jack Jones
San Francisco Giants -137
The San Francisco Giants are coming off a tough 7-8 loss to the Baltimore Orioles yesterday where they blew a big lead in the closing innings. They'll come back motivated today as they are a perfect 5-0 in their last five games following a loss.
Matt Moore has certainly enjoyed his new home in San Francisco. He has gone 4-3 with a 2.22 ERA in his last eight starts overall, giving up just 13 earned runs in 52 2/3 innings. Moore is 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA in his last three starts, two of which have come with the Giants.
Ryan Vogelsong is getting way too much respect tonight from oddsmakers. He has pitched well in four starts this season, but he's only averaging 4 2/3 innings per start. Three of those starts have come at home while the other was on the road against the lowly Atlanta Braves. Vogelsong is 0-1 with a 5.93 ERA and 1.829 WHIP in three career starts against San Francisco.
The Pirates are 3-14 in Vogelsong's last 17 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is 1-5 in Vogelsong's last six starts overall. The Giants are 37-18 in their last 55 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Jimmy Boyd
Reds +118
Cincinnati is showing great value here as home dog against the Marlins in Monday's series opener. The Reds will send out youngster Brandon Finnegan, who has been throwing lights out of late. Finnegan has a 1.50 ERA and 1.157 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
Miami counters here with David Phelps, who will be making just his 3rd start of the season. Phelps has pitched well in each of his first two outings, but he's still working on building up his stamina. He lasted just 4 1/3 innings in his first start and only 5 innings the second time out. The Reds will be into the Marlins bullpen early and they have a ugly 4.10 ERA and 1.366 WHIP on the road this season. Cincinnati also comes into this game swinging a hot bad, averaging 5.9 runs/game over their last 7 games.
Reds are 10-1 in their last 11 games following a loss, 7-2 in their last 9 during game 1 of a series and 5-1 in Finnegan's last 6 starts. Miami is 1-6 in the last 7 during game 1 of a series, 0-4 in their last 4 after a win and 0-6 in Phelps last 6 road starts against a team with a losing record.