Scott Spreitzer
New York vs. Arizona
Play: New York +109
Both teams had to travel from the East Coast, however, New York is coming off two wins while Arizona was humiliated in a three-game sweep by Boston which culminated in a 16-2 loss on Sunday (we had Boston). The ageless Bartolo Colon had two more quality starts his last two appearances, including a 3-2 Mets loss to the Diamondbacks when he allowed just one run in seven innings. Colon is 10-6 with a 3.35 ERA overall and 6-3 and 3.22 on the road. Robbie Ray has been inconsistent all season as he shutout the Mets in seven innings his last time out but allowed 17 runs (13 earned) his previous three starts. Ray is 5-11 overall and 3-5 with a 5.40 ERA at home and the Diamondbacks have lost seven of his last nine starts. Arizona has the second-worst home record in baseball and it has lost 17 of its last 26 home games against right-handed starters and five straight at home against teams with a winning record.
Buster Sports
Miami at Cincinnati
Play: Miami -127
The Cincinnati Reds come home from a 9 game road trip to face the Miami Marlins who are without their superstar Giancarlo Stanton, who will be lost for the season with a groin injury. Although this is a huge loss for the Marlins they actually have a better record without him in the lineup than with him and we believe the Marlins will use this injury to rally the team in their fight for a playoff berth. The Marlins send RH David Phelps (5-6, 2.40 ERA) to the hill tonight and he faces the Reds LH Brandon Finnegan (7-8, 4.45 ERA) Phelps has pitched well since joining the starting rotation with a 0.96 ERA with a WHIP of 1.16 in 2 starts. Finnegan has pitched well of late but at home he has struggled with a 4.31 ERA and with a WHIP of 1.245. He has never faced the Marlins so that does give him the advantage. The Reds however fall into one of our Buster Sports Systems. We had a free play winner with the Brewers yesterday with a similar situation. We believe this gives the Marlins HUGE value tonight. One other advantage we have tonight is that the Fish love hitting against LH starters as they are 20 -8 on the year. Backing our selection is the fact that the Marlins are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings and the fact that the Reds are 1-6 in Finnegan's last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.
Chip Chirimbes
Miami at Cincinnati
Play: Miami -122
The Marlins lost Giancarlo Stanton once again Sunday (most likely for the season) and it may actually be a blessing in disguise as his replacement Ichiro Susuki has been far more productive this season. Stanton still is the most powerful man at the plate in baseball but he has yet to return to form since his horrific beaning. David Phelps (5-6, 2.40 ERA0 has allowed 15 less hits them innings pitched and is 1-2 with a 3.43 ERA against Cincinnati. The Reds will start Brandon Finnegan (7-8, 4.45) and they are 3-7 in his last 10 home starts. T
Wunderdog
Kansas City @ Detroit
Pick: Detroit -132
Detroit has been a streaky team all season, and now the Tigers have won two straight with two shutouts against Texas after losing five in a row. Daniel Norris pitched well his last start allowing one run in five innings before the bullpen blew the game twice for the Tigers in a 15-inning loss at Seattle. Kansas City is 21-39 on the road and has lost seven of Ian Kennedy's last eight starts, although some of that can be attributed to poor run support. The Royals are 25th in the Majors with a .708 OPS and dead last with a .667 OPS on the road. Also, Kansas City is just 4-11 after a win, and the Royals have lost six of their last eight games in Detroit. The Tigers are 33-21 at home with a .796 OPS at Comerica Park.
GoodFella
Seattle TT Over 4.5
These Mariners are on a roll right now & we were on them the last two days. Their line-up is clicking & they're playing extremely confident right now. They face a SP who's really struggled this season (5.14 ERA) in Ricky Nolasco this evening. These Mariners have had good success vs him (.282 AVG) and (.832 .OPS). I also like the fact that the Mariners are in their best hitting posture this evening. Seattle ranks 5th in .OPS (.767) vs right-handed pitching this season. I fully expect Seattle to get to Nolasco eventually & then we get into that poor Angels bullpen. I'm all over the Mariners Team Total going OVER 4.5 runs in this spot on Monday evening.
Rob Veno
Toronto @ New York
Play: Under 9.5
New and youthful Yankees lineup showed positive signs for the future this past week as C Gary Sanchez, RF Aaron Judge & 1B/OF are all off to nice offensive starts. Have some reservations about that third of the lineup tonight however as they face a top tier knuckleball in Toronto RH R.A. Dickey. Add to that the fact that none of the other everyday lineup veterans except for SS Starlin Castro (.286) have a batting average above .250 against Dickey and it becomes clear that New York may have some run scoring difficulties tonight. The other side of the coin is Yankees hard throwing RH starter Chad Green (avg 94.7 MPH fastball has topped out at 99) who the Bluejays will face for the first time. The unfamiliarity combined with the subtraction of slugging OF Jose Bautista from the lineup due to injury could be advantageous for Green. Toronto has been in the midst of a recent offensive slump scoring 4 or less in 11 of their last 14 games, a stretch in which their game batting average has been below .265 12 times and their on base percentage .290 or less 10 times. Each bullpen has all of their key arms available which can keep the back third of the game quiet. Home plate umpire assignment yet to come but still see sizable value in playing this one under the posted total of 9.5.
Bruce Marshall
Oakland at Texas
Pick: Under
Not sure what is going on with the Texas offense, which was blanked the past two days by the Detroit pitching. Tonight's Oakland starter Ross Detwiler knows a bit about Arlington after having pitched for the Rangers in recent years, and he is off of a breathtaking return to the rotation when pitching eight shutout innings on Wednesday vs. Baltimore. P
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. YANKEES +108 over Toronto
The Blue Jays continue to be overpriced almost daily. They are getting a huge amount of market support because they have an entire country backing them as opposed to a single city. That has influence on the number but there are so many things not to like about them here. First, there is R.A. Dickey and his knuckleball. Knuckleballers are a rare breed in that you rarely know what you are going to get from them. If the knuckler is dancing and/or around the zone, it can be very effective. However, if Dickey is missing the plate and the knuckler isn’t dancing, it’s batting practice out there. While many traditional skill gauges weren't built around this style of pitching, our skills analysis simply does support any type of success going forward. Knuckleballers rely on good fortune rather than actual skill growth. Dickey has 52 walks in 143 innings with 103 K’s which is a K/BB ratio that is below league average. His ERA/xERA split of 4.63/4.61 reveals the risks involved.
Toronto’s offense continues to get praised often but it’s not even league average this season. The Jays are batting .253 over their past 40 games and just .225 over their past 20 games, which is dead last in the AL and second last in the entire league. When R.A. Dickey pitches, he insists that he is caught by Josh Thole. Therefore Thole and his .158 batting average (in 101 AB’s) will be in the lineup tonight. That’s equivalent to having a NL pitcher batting. Naturally, Thole bats ninth. So, with Dickey and his personal catcher going, the Jays are favored on the road here because why?
Chad Green allowed 12 baserunners (eight hits, four walks) in 3.2 innings on his way to a disaster start on Aug. 3, taking the first turn in the rotation slot vacated by the traded Ivan Nova. It was ugly but we never put a lot of emphasis on one start and now Green gets another opportunity. The Tigers selected Green in the 11th round of the 2013 draft and saw him develop nicely as a starter. They dealt him to New York in December 2015. The sleeper prospect has been absolutely terrific since midseason 2015 and has been stingy thus far in 2016. He commands the plate with an easily locatable 90-94 mph fastball despite its late sink and run. Green knows how to pitch and attack hitters with all of his offerings. His slider, which features splitter-like action, and change-up need work, but play up due to his repeatable arm speed and slot. Green limits walks and HR and he has a nifty 52% career groundball rate in the minors and majors. Further, he’s able to register strikeouts by mixing effectively and staying ahead of hitters. Win or lose here, we’re going with the best of it in terms of value because Toronto with Dickey starting does not warrant being road chalk.
COLORADO +170 over Washington
Max Scherzer needs no introductions. Scherzer continues to rack up strikeouts, as he's amassed a major league leading 208 of them through 24 starts. However, this park is unlike the rest so even the best are vulnerable to the conditions here. The over/under total when a guy like Scherzer is pitching is almost exactly the same as when a guy like Tanner Roark is pitching. Tonight’s total of o10 -135 proves so, which is why the Nationals are far too big a risk at this price in Denver. It’s also worth noting that Scherzer has been tagged for 24 jacks this season, which leads the NL. Lastly, Scherzers fly-ball rate of 53% is among the highest in the majors, which explains the numbers of bombs he surrenders. Scherzer is an elite pitcher but nobody is an elite pitcher at this unforgiving park and Scherzer’s profile may not play well here at all.
Jorge De La Rosa is an unfamiliar 35-year-old pitcher that gets very little attention pitching for this team at this park. We’re not going to sugarcoat this and suggest that De La Rosa isn’t vulnerable because he is. Dude has walked 16 batters over his last 33 frames while striking out just 14. De La Rosa could easily get whacked here. However, we’ve seen this movie before, whereas De La Rosa goes out and pitches a seven-inning gem in his home park. Even though De La Rosa’s numbers aren’t pretty (5.25 ERA), he has several outstanding starts just like he has every season. That includes a 6.1-inning, four-hitter in Baltimore, a six-inning, three-hit shutout in Colorado against the Yanks and at least four other solid outings. We’ll close with De La Rosa’s three year home/road split: Home 23-5, 3.58 ERA, Road 16-19, 4.21 ERA. Thanks for your time.
ARIZONA -1½ +181 over N.Y Mets
Robbie Ray evenly priced against Bartolo Colon is nuts. Ray is one of a select number of starters who can claim excellent skills against both LH and RH bats. He has been untouchable against lefties but he also has been very good against righties with 10.9 K’s/9, 3.7 BB’s/9, 43% grounders. If he can keep his walks under control, Ray will emerge as an elite starter. Ray’s groundball rate is 51% over his last six starts. His swing and miss rate of 13% over that same span is elite too. Everything that Ray throws is elite and the last thing he needs to improve on is his control. The good news is that he has walked just seven batters over his last 31 innings. Overall, Ray has 156 K’s in 128 frames. He’s on the verge of being in the upper echelon of starting pitchers so do not sleep on him for a second.
Bartolo Colon keeps on chugging along with laser-beam control, stellar command and pitching ahead in the count (primo first-pitch strike rate). A subpar k-rate and weak swing and miss rate provide him little room for error, but his shiny 3.35 ERA says he doesn't make many. Colon shrugs off age and girth, but nobody is impervious to natural forces forever, right? Right?? RIGHT!!!!????
Seriously, it’s hard to wrap one’s head around this success. Colon throws an 87 MPH fastball across the plate 88% of the time. Guys that do that never make it out of the minors but this lucky mother***er has been doing it for years. Every single batter knows that a fastball is coming, they know it will be a strike and they know it’ll be in the 86 to 88 MPH range. Colon is the only pitcher we have ever seen get away with this over an extended period of time. Colon continues to utilize a pitch-to-contact approach and elite control to get the most out of what he has left in the tank. However, with sweat pouring down his enormous face after one-pitch and armed with an 86 mph fastball and a puny swing and miss rate, we’ll take our chances that his fat luck runs out here. Bartolo Colon pitches worse than James Shields but he’s priced like he’s John Lackey.
Brad Diamond
Mets vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Mets +104
Before we get to our 10* DIAMOND DUST entry for August, check out our Free winner for today. Brad Diamond is on a consistent 10-3 streak 3-0 MLB TOP PLAYS , so make sure have his ticket punched every day. Here we test RHP Colon of New York in a tough rough set out in Arizona. Actually, the Mets could use the road experience after some negative games back in New York. The veteran Colon (10-6, 3.35) is coming off a sharp 7 innings of work allowing only 1 earned run versus these same D’backs in Pittsburgh. He has a super road scorecard this season…6-3, and 3.22 ERA to boot. The Mets have won 7-of-9 against Arizona, and 9 straight with Colon overall on Monday. Arizona uses lefty Ray (5-11, 4.57) who has been downer at home carrying a 3-5 mark with a 5+ ERA. With the D’Backs 2-11 in game #1 of a series, we’ll look for the veteran Colon to bring home the money for the Mets.
Dave Price
Kansas City Royals +128
The defending champion Kansas City Royals aren't about to give in. While the season has not gone their way up to this point, they have shown some fight, going 6-2 in their last 8 games overall. They have a chance to gain on the Detroit Tigers in this series, and it starts in Game 1 tonight. Ian Kennedy has been solid all year, sporting a 3.91 ERA and 1.197 WHIP in 23 starts with 134 K's in 133 2/3 innings. Kennedy has been even better of late with a 0.93 ERA and 0.983 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Daniel Norris is only averaging 4.2 innings per start this season with a 4.24 ERA and 1.647 WHIP to boot. Kennedy has only given up 3 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in 2 starts against Detroit this season.
Brad Wilton
Monday comp play release is to stick with the recent Yankees Over trend as they play host to the Toronto Blue Jays and we go Over the total.
The Yankees played all 3 games this past weekend against Tampa Bay Over the total, and have now been Over in 4 of their last 5 contests.
With Chad Green on the hill, strong chance another game heads Over the posted price. Green has made spot starts for the Yankees this summer, and they have not gone all that well. Over his last 3 starts, he has posted an ERA over 7, and all 3 of the starts have landed Over the total.
R.A. Dickey enters tonight's start with a 1-1 mark over his last 3 starts, and an ERA just over 5. He has seen 2 of his last 3 starts play Over the total.
Expect enough offense tonight between these division rivals for this game to land Over the total.
2* TORONTO-N.Y. YANKEES OVER
Scott Delaney
My free winner for tonight is the Texas Rangers in a blowout, over the Oakland Athletics. With the price being so high, play the Rangers on the Run Line in this game.
Let's start with Perez, who is still looking for his first win since June 26 after picking up a no-decision in his last start. He looked great against the Rockies last Wednesday, allowing just one run on four hits over 5 2/3 innings, and this time out he will be looking to dominate. He has a 2.47 ERA in 12 starts at home this year, so expect a quality start.
Detwiler, meanwhile, was excellent in his A’s debut last Wednesday, when he scattered six hits across eight scoreless innings against the Orioles in his first Major League start since May 14, 2015. There was a lot of questions whether he could handle the pressure of being back on the mound, but his control was outstanding, as he walked none and struck out two in the win.
These two will duel tonight, as it stays low.
2* RANGERS -1.5
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the Mariners to keep the Angels mired in their slump.
Los Angeles has lost 10 in a row as they get set for this home series against a Seattle team that is surging strong right now. The Mariners have won 8 of their last 9 games and 10 of their last 12 overall. Included is a 3 game sweep of the Halos earlier in the month.
Felix Hernandez is coming off a stifling one run, three hit effort over seven innings of work against Detroit. King Felix defeated the Angels in his start prior, working 8 innings with 4 runs allowed.
Ricky Nolasco will counter and he has not won since July 9th.
They have seen better days in Anaheim.
Expect the losing trend to continue for the Angels, as the M's keep up their torrid clip.
4* SEATTLE
Chris Jordan
My free play for Monday night is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the San Diego Padres in Interleague play. This is going to be a struggle for the Friars, as I see a pitching mismatch in this one.
Smyly steps to the hill after posting four straight quality starts, during which he went 2-0 with a 2.52 ERA. He's also won consecutive decisions for the first time since winning five straight from Aug. 21-Sept. 30, 2015. He'll be able to handcuff this lineup today, and roll to an easy win over the Pads.
He'll get plenty of run support, against Perdomo, who has been known to be dominant when he is spot on. This young right-hander has racked up the highest ground-ball rate in the Majors among pitchers with 90 innings, true, but he also struggles to maintain his dominance once fatigue sets in. That could be a problem in this humidity, and the lack of effectiveness could come sooner than usual.
Take the Rays on the run line.
5* RAYS
David Banks
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers
Pick: Detroit Tigers-135
The Tigers did not do themselves any favors by losing five games in a row before beating Texas 2-0 on Saturday. They will face the Rangers once again on Sunday before beginning a series with AL Central foe Kansas City. The Royals trail second-place Detroit by six games but are 3-1 in their last four games.
The defending World Series champs are mediocre at best this season. First baseman Eric Hosmer is batting .274 to lead the team, which ranks eighth in the majors. Hosmer has 15 home runs and 65 RBIs. Designated hitter Kendrys Morales has 19 homers and 55 RBIs but is hitting just .246.
Ian Kennedy (6-9) will pitch for Kansas City on Monday night. The right-hander has not been involved in a decision since July 25. In his last appearance against Detroit on July 15, Kennedy gave up just four hits and one run in 5.1 innings, but he did not take a 4-2 loss to the Tigers.
The Tigers have had some problems recently like the one they had on Saturday against the Rangers. Despite winning 2-0, Detroit stranded 17 runners on base. The Tigers had 14 hits and produced just two runs. That is going to have to change. Miguel Cabrera continues to lead Detroit with 26 home runs, 76 RBIs, and a .312 batting average.
Lefthander Daniel Norris will start for the Tigers. He is 1-0 on the season and earned another start with his performance against Seattle last week. In five innings, he scattered seven hits and gave up just one earned run. A win helps the Tigers keep pace with AL Central leader Cleveland.