Free Picks for Monday, August 21st, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Mike Lundin
Arizona at New York
Play: Arizona -128
Two struggling teams will do battle at Citi Field Monday night when the New York Mets host the Arizona Diamondbacks for the opener of their four-game series. The Mets are 1-6 in their last seven overall while the Diamondbacks are 1-5 in their last six overall. The D'Backs are still in postseason contention though, and this looks like a good series for them to get back on track.
Tonight Taijuan Walker (6-7, 3.83 ERA) will take the ball for Arizona. The D'Backs have lost each of his last seven starts and the 25 year old is 0-4 with a 4.33 ERA in those games, but note that he's 4-4 behind a solid 3.30 ERA in 11 road starts this season. He held the Mets to two runs on two hits and six walks over five innings in the lone career meeting while with the Mariners back in 2014.
The Mets turn to Robert Gsellman (5-5, 5.98 ERA) who is set to make his second start since being activated from the DL after missing more than six weeks with a hamstring injury. He was tagged with three runs (two earned) on four hits and three walks in 5 1/3 innings against the Yankees his last time out, and I think the D'Backs will feast on the right-hander tonight.
Scott Spreitzer
Rangers vs. Angels
Play:Rangers +136
The Angels have been playing well, winning nine of their last 11 and coming off a 7-2 successful road trip that began in Seattle and ended in Baltimore yesterday. Tonight, without a day off, they suit-up against Cole Hamels, who has had little trouble with the Halos in his career. Hamels has a 2.45 ERA in seven starts against LAA and he's slammed the door on Mike Trout and Andrelton Simmons, holding them to 5 of 41 at the plate. Texas is 7-2 in Cole Hamels' starts since July 1. The Angels counter with Tyler Skaggs, who has not enjoyed much success against the Rangers, saddled with a 5.46 ERA in six starts. Texas has won eight of their last 11 and I believe they'll strike first in an important series in the AL wildcard race.
Marc Lawrence
Arizona at New York
Play: Arizona -129
Edges - Diamondbacks: 7-2 on Mondays this season; and Walker 7-3 last 10 overall away team starts… Mets: Gsellman 0-2 team starts at night. With the Mets just 1-8 the last nine games in this series, we recommend a 1* play on Arizona. Thank you and good luck as always.we recommend a 1* play on Arizona.
Ben Burns
Mariners vs. Braves
Play: Braves -108
I successfully played against Seattle yesterday. Off that 3-0 loss at Tampa, their 4-game winning streak snapped, I expect the streaky Mariners to stumble once again. Prior to their 4-game winning streak, you may recall that the M's had lost five in a row.
Admittedly, Foltynewicz has been pretty bad his last couple of outings. In fairness, however, those were both difficult venues. He's back in his comfort zone now, pitching in his home part. The Braves are 7-2 in his nine starts here this season. Foltynewicz has a solid 3.48 ERA in those games.
Albers was decent in his lone start this season. This will be his first road start of the season though. The last time he started a game on the road was late last August, nearly a full year ago. While he avoided the loss, Albers lasted only two innings, giving up a pair of home runs and walking three batters. Overall, in limited action, he had a 10.38 ERA and 2.31 WHIP on the road last season.
The Braves have hit a little better against southpaws than they have against right-handers this season. They're off a momentum-building 8-1 blowout win yesterday, avoiding an embarrassing sweep at the hands of the Reds. At roughly a pick'em price, I like their chances here.
Big Al
Milwaukee vs. San Francisco
Pick: Milwaukee -117
And the NL award for most pitching victories in 2017 goes to...Zach Davies??? As crazy as that sounds, it could happen. Davies is tied for second in the league right now with 14 behind Clayton Kershaw who isn't going to see any action at least for another couple of weeks. And the Milwaukee RH gets a start tonight in pitcher-friendly San Francisco against one of the worst teams in the league. Sure, his ERA is too high and his strikeout totals too low for Davies to be considered anywhere close for a Cy Young award, even if his win total reaches 20, but you have to call this a breakout season nonetheless. Second year rookie RH Chris Stratton goes for the Giants, and it's been a learning experience for him in his sophomore campaign so far. If Stratton is ever going to be successful as a Major League pitcher, he's going to have to work on his 4.6 walk rate. The Brewers are just two games behind the first place Cubs and they're 16-6 in Davies' last 22 starts.
Jim Feist
Mariners at Braves
Pick: Under
This is a good park to pitch in and Seattle is 3,000 miles from home. Andrew Albers (1.80 ERA) is on the mound, off a 3-1 win over Baltimore. Seattle loses the DH for this series and is 11-4-1 under the total when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Atlanta is on a 23-8-3 run under the total at home. Mike Foltynewicz has excellent stuff and sports a 3.48 ERA at home.
Larry Ness
Seattle vs. Atlanta
Pick:Atlanta +101
The Seattle Mariners are on the second leg of a four-city, 13-day, 12-game road trip. They took two of three from the Rays in Tampa and at 63-62, arrive in Atlanta for the beginning of a three-game series tonight. Seattle sits 1 1/2 games out of the second AL wild-card spot (along with KC), behind the Angels and Twins. It's a very crowded field and if the Mariners plan to stay in the wild card chase, they will have to navigate a stretch that has them playing 21 away games in 28 contests. The Braves salvaged the finale of a three-game home series with Cincinnati on Sunday but Atlanta has no realistic playoff hopes at 55-67, as they've lost 19 of their last 27 games.
Taking the mound for the Mariners will be Andrew Albers (1-0, 1.80 ERA), who was just purchased from the Braves on Aug.11 for cash considerations. In this matchup against his former team, he'll face Mike Foltynewicz (10-8, 4.75 ERA). Albers held Baltimore to one run over five innings to earn his first big-league victory since his rookie season in 2013, as Seattle won 3-1. Albers had made 17 appearances in the majors from 2013-2016 with Minnesota and Toronto (2-5, 4.41 ERA), plus posted a 2.61 ERA in 26 games for Atlanta’s Triple-A affiliate while going 12-3 before joining the Mariners.
Foltynewicz has looked helpless in his last two outings, allowing 14 runs on 16 hits with seven walks in six innings during losses at St.Louis and Colorado (21.00 ERA). However, those two outings came on the road, where he's struggled. He's been very good in SunTrust Park in 2017, going 5-2 with a 3.48 ERA in nine home starts (Braves are 7-2). Overall, the Braves are 13-10 in his 2017 starts, giving him the 10th-best moneyline mark among starters (plus-$695).
Not sure what to expect from Albers as he faces his ex-teammates and I'll give Foltynewicz a mulligan for his last two statst (again, both on the road). After all, his 12 starts prior to these last two saw him go 7-1 (Braves were 10-2) while posing a 3.58 ERA.
Power Sports
Seattle vs. Atlanta
Pick: Under 9.5
We have an American League team venturing into a National League park, which means they lose the designated hitter from the lineup. Furthermore, this particular AL team just got shutout yesterday. The O/U is advantageous too; considering it's one-half run above the key number of 9.0. If the Braves can put this away early, it would be helpful as well as then we don't have to play the bottom of the ninth. Often times, those final three outs can be the difference between a game staying Under or going Over. Take the Under.
The Braves are off B2B eight-run efforts (split the two games), but that was against Cincinnati. They still rank just 20th in MLB in runs scored and are batting just .230 against American League pitching this season. The Under is 32-24-3 in Braves' home games and they'll be facing a pitcher, Andrew Albers, that had a very good 1st start last Tuesday. The veteran Albers held the Orioles to only one run on six hits in five innings of work. Seattle won 3-1.
As for the Mariners offense, it managed only three hits yday at Tampa Bay as the team saw its five-game win streak go up in smoke. The Under is now 32-25-2 in their road games this year. In the few games that the Braves have been favored this year, the Under is 22-15-2. Tonight's starter is Mike Foltynewicz and while he's struggled of late, he'd allowed 3 ER or less in eight of nine starts before the last two (which came at Colorado and St. Louis).
Will Rogers
Rangers vs. Angels
Pick: Angels -147
The set-up: The LA Angels were able to survive with Mike Trout on the DL and since his return right after the break, have been able to make a strong push into wild card contention. Los Angeles capped a 7-2 road trip with Sunday’s 5-4 win at Baltimore and returns home having won nine of 11 overall to earn a virtual tie for the second AL wild card spot with Minnesota (both sit 2 1/2 games back of the Yankees, owners of the top wild card spot). The Mariners and Royals are 1 1/2 games back of the Angels and Twins, while the Rangers, who visit Anaheim tonight for the first contest of a four-game series, are lurking 2 1/2 games back of both LA and Minny. Texas has won five of its last seven but was held scoreless until the ninth inning of Sunday’s 3-2 loss to the Chicago White Sox.
The pitching matchup: Cole Hamels (8-1 & 3.48 ERA) takes the mound for Texas and Tyler Skaggs (1-3 & 3.63 ERA) for the Angels. Hamels spent about two months on the DL but since struggling in his first start back on the mound in late June, owns a 6-1 mark with a 2.93 ERA in nine starts since the beginning of July (Texas is 7-2). Hamels is 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA in seven career starts against the Angels (teams are 4-3). Skaggs will be activated from the bereavement list to make his fourth start since returning from disabled list after missing 85 games with an oblique strain. He's 0-2 (team is 1-2) since returning to the mound on Aug. 5 but he's pitched much better than his record with a 2.93 ERA in his three outings. Skaggs is 2-1 with a 5.46 ERA in six career starts against Texas (teams are 4-2).
The pick: Hard to find fault with Hamels but the Angels look more and more like a wild card team every day. Take the Angels.
Scott Rickenbach
Athletics vs. Orioles
Play:Athletics +156
Oakland's Chris Smith allowed just 3 hits in his 5 and 1/3 innings versus Kansas City last week. Truly he pitched better than what one would think as the statline also shows 3 earned runs allowed in that outing. The A's are 2-1 in his last 3 starts. Though those were at home, there is an expectation that he will pitch just as well on the road as he has produced quality starts in each of his two road starts this season. Smith will be opposed by the Orioles Wade Miley. The Baltimore southpaw has been very inconsistent this season and he has particularly struggled at home. In his 6 home starts since early June Miley has been unable to complete 6 innings in any of those starts. Many of the outings have been shortened due to his lack of success. Miley has compiled an 8.68 ERA in these 6 outings and has averaged less than 5 innings per start! With the Orioles having lost 8 of 12 coupled with the fact Miley has struggled to find success at Camden Yards, Baltimore is heavily overpriced here in the home favorite role. Look for the Athletics to improve to 5-2 this season in road games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. The Orioles are only 26-36 this season when off of a loss and they actually have a losing record in home games dating back to May 21st - a span of exactly 3 months. Grab the value by fading an over-priced home fave here.
Larry Wallace
Arizona at New York
Play: Arizona -129
Walker holds a 4-4 record while pitching on the road. Gsellman this year is 5-5 with a 6.63 ERA. Also, while pitching at home he is 3-3 with a 5.26 ERA. The Diamondbacks are still in the #2 spot in the National League Wildcard. The Mets are 1-6 in their last 7 games overall.
Jimmy Boyd
Athletics vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -157
I got no problem laying big juice on Baltimore at home in Monday's series opener against the A's. I give the Orioles a huge edge on the mound in this one, as they send out the red-hot Wade Miley against the struggling Chris Smith.
Miley has a 2.70 ERA and 1.260 WHIP in his last 3 starts, plus he's 3-1 with a 1.33 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in 4 career starts against Oakland. That includes a recent start earlier this month (8/10), where he allowed 0 earned runs on 3 hits in 7 innings of a 7-2 win. That victory came against Smith, who has a 6.61 ERA in his last 3 starts and gave up 5 runs on 7 hits (4 HRs) in 6 innings.
Orioles are 34-9 in their last 43 home games against a bad team that's got a win pct. of 38% to 46% and 20-8 in their last 28 at home against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. A's 17-37 in their last 54 road games, 0-4 in their last 4 against a lefty starter and 0-4 in their last 4 off a win.
3G-Sports
Seattle vs. Atlanta
Play: Atlanta -103
Mike Foltynewicz is 5-2 with a 3.48 ERA at home this season, with the Braves winning seven of his nine starts at SunTrust Park. Atlanta is 10-3 in his last 13 starts overall. Seattle's Andrew Albers was excellent in his first start of the year, at home vs. Baltimore, but I'll bet against him in his first road outing in this ballpark I think he'll struggle.
Buster Sports
Boston at Cleveland
Play: Over 9.5
The Red Sox come to Cleveland for 4 games starting tonight which could end up being a playoff preview. The starting pitchers for tonight’s game are for the Red Sox LH Eduardo Rodriguez (4-3, 3.97 ERA) and he will face the Indians RH Mike Clevinger (6-5, 3.75 ERA) We will be play on the over in tonight’s matchup. Rodriguez has pitched well of late but when he hits the road, he has a 4.17 ERA in nine starts. The Indians are one of the best teams in MLB against left-handed pitching, as they lead the league by a wide margin in hits and runs scored. We see them getting to Rodriguez tonight. As for Clevinger, he had a great start against Tampa Bay last game however, that was Tampa Bay. The last time he faced the Red Sox he allowed 5 runs in only 3 innings of work. We like the Red Sox to get to Clevinger again tonight.