Scott Rickenbach
Arizona at New York
Play: Over 9
The Dbacks Taijuan Walker has a 5.62 ERA and has allowed 4 homers in his last 3 starts. Arizona has lost each of his last 7 starts and he has allowed at least 3 earned runs in each of his last 4 starts and the over is a perfect 3-0 in Walker's last 3 starts. The Mets send Robert Gsellman to the mound for this one and the Mets have lost each of his last 4 starts. Gsellman has compiled a 9.68 ERA in those 4 outings. The over is 10-4-1 in his 15 starts this season. Though neither one of these teams has been tearing the cover off of the ball of late, the Diamondbacks have scored 4 runs or more in 4 of their last 6 games. New York has scored 4 runs or more in 7 of their last 11 games. Of course a 4-4 scored guarantees us no worse than a 5-4 final and I like the line value as this total has dropped to a 9 and the over is available at plus money. Keep in mind, Arizona is on a 46-26 run to the over in August games and the Mets are an incredible 54-23 to the over in night games this season.
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota +126 over CHICAGO
This is Game 1 of a double-header with the listed pitchers being Tim Melville versus Carlos Rodon.
After beginning the season in independent ball, the 27-year-old Tim Melville now finds himself in the majors with a spot start in today’s doubleheader (Monday, Aug. 21). Melville was signed by the Twins to a minor league contract in June and is back in the majors for the first time since starting two games with the Reds in 2016. The Twins are his fourth organization—he was with the Royals from 2008 through 2014, the Tigers organization in 2015, and the Reds for 2016. Melville was formerly highly regarded with the Royals, but injuries derailed him in 2012 and 2013. He primarily works off of his 90-94 mph fastball and mixes in a curveball and changeup. Inconsistency, particularly with his fastball command, has been a significant issue for him throughout his career. He has a smooth, repeatable delivery, but he can often live in the fat part of the plate, leaving him vulnerable to hard hit balls. Melville has a curveball that can flash plus, but it lacks velocity and may not deceive advanced hitters. As a flyball pitcher, he’ll need to learn to sequence better and spot his fastball lower in the zone, especially as it lacks movement. Melville has a career 4.58 ERA in the minors over 747 innings. Melville’s 2017 minor league stats are good but it’s a small sample size. However, his first start against the South Side is not a bad matchup and he could therefore hold some value. Is he worth a bet in Chicago? Probably, yes because Chicago is not worthy of being favored over too many teams these days. Melville’s 2017
A year removed from all the hype in 2015, Carlos Rodon enjoyed a quiet growth season last year. It initially looked like a replay of 2015, but he then he parlayed his July misfortune (7.92 ERA, sprained wrist) into a 7-2 Aug/Sept, as his fastball approached triple digits. His first-pitch strike rate and control trends were positive responses to an increased workload. Step by step, inch by inch, yes but he’s not there yet after getting off to a late start this year because of a biceps injury. Rodon has made just eight starts so once again, he’s battling to keep pace.
Carlos Rodon was more famine than feast in July, at least on the surface (6.23 ERA, 1.65 WHIP). He’s been better in August and those wanting to gamble on a starter down the stretch could do worse than speculating on Rondon.
His skills in July were very good even if his wildness (4.9 BB’s/9) was predictable given his ugly 52% first-pitch strike rate and 40% ball%. Rodon will probably hold some great profit potential when being offered a price but he’s a big risk as the favorite because the South Side do not win enough games.
Lastly, Paul Molitor is proving to be one of the best in-game managers in the league. We’re often critical of manager moves because they are so questionable half the time but Molitor has impressed us greatly. His baseball instincts are unmatched because he was such a great player and he’s carried that over to his managerial job. Unlike other managers, Molitor will get the starter out at the first sign of trouble before the damage is done and that’s another good reason to back the Twins here taking back a price.
BALTIMORE -1½ +117 over Oakland
Have you seen Oakland’s Jekyll and Hyde act? Well, we have and it’s not pretty. Oakland’s metamorphosis begins as soon as they start packing their bags. They go from a highly competitive team at home to pathetic little mice on the road. Oakland’s 20 road victories in 59 games is the worst mark in MLB. Even the Phillies and South Side have more road victories. Being the worst road team in the league, the A’s will now send out a starter that does not belong at this level.
Chris Smith has been around the majors before. He appeared in 50 games, all in relief from 2008 to 2010. In 2011, Smith did not pitch in the majors but got whacked (6.75 ERA) in 13 games while pitching for Tacoma of the Pacific Coast League. Smith did not pitch in 2013 or 2014 but reappeared as a starter for San Diego’s Triple-AAA affiliate, El Paso in 2015. In other words, from 2010 to 2015, Smith did not pitch in the majors. He ended up with the A’s in 2016 until the present but has spent most of that time in the minors. Dude is now 36-years old and this year he’s started six games and appeared in relief for one other game for a total of 39 innings pitched. In those 39 frames, Smith has walked 13 and struck out 22 with a 5% swing and miss rate. We all know what happens when you cannot strike out Baltimore hitters at Camden Yards. Over his last 26 frames, Smith has walked 10 and struck out 14. We also all know what happens when you walk too many Orioles and can’t strike out any at Camden Yards. The dictionary defines fodder as 1. coarse food for livestock, composed of entire plants, including leaves, stalks, and grain, of such forages as corn and sorghum. 2. people considered as readily available and of little value. Chris Smith fits both definitions.
It wasn’t all that long ago that Wade Miley was one of the least interesting pitchers in baseball. On the stat sheet, his results and peripherals conspired to paint the picture of a steadfast second-division fourth starter, a sacrifice at the altar of the 162-game season. This season has marked the culmination of a life’s work of being Wade Miley, the experience and the attrition. Little, out of hand, has changed: he still throws the same four pitches—fastball-slider-curve-change—the same amount of the time at the exact same speed. He still strikes out a few batters less than average and walks too many. He should be able to keep his head barely above water forever like this, starting the fourth game of the regular season for the 2025 equivalent of the 2017 Padres. Only, Wade Miley has stopped being boring; he’s become interesting in the worst possible way. Wade Miley can’t throw strikes. Well, he can throw strikes but he also can’t. Wade Miley leads MLB in walks issued with 72 in 126 innings. He’s also struck out 112.
Not throwing strikes is what all the cool baseball-throwing kids are doing these days. With power up for whatever reason, the relative cost of the ball in play is equally increased. Extending that logic, pitchers are encouraged to keep the ball away from the bat at all costs; and as hitters grow better at hitting low pitches, pitchers have fled further, to the zone low and outside. Of course, the ideal is just to throw strikes that hitters can’t hit but there are only a few of those. The strike zone has expanded, especially at the bottom of the zone, forcing batters to protect more area than before. They’ve responded to this massive influx of low pitches by being ready for them, proving that a difficult pitch you expect might be easier to deal with than the easy pitch that surprises you. It’s another indication that sequencing, and tunneling, are important assets for a pitcher, to maintain as much of that surprise as possible.
What we’re getting at here is that the Wade Miley of today most closely resembles a very dissimilar pitcher in Dallas Keuchel, who has been largely excellent. Their bond: neither of them throws strikes. According to Brooks Baseball, Miley recently reintegrated a cutter to his menu of pitches, first tried out last year. The one good thing about being a pitcher, after the injuries and attrition and the unconscious expectation of needing to be perfect, is that they’re never quite dead. Wade Miley might be on the rebound in a big way. His groundball rate in his last start was 57%. He’s struck out 25 over his last 28 innings and he’s getting hitters to chase pitches out of the zone. His surface stats are awful but his xERA over his last five starts is 3.90. This market thinks Miley is the same stiff right now that he’s been all season long but we’re suggesting that’s not true at all. Underneath the surface, Miley is making massive strides but it’s been so subtle that not many have noticed. We now get him at a reduced price against a team he could very easily make look silly up there. Not throwing strikes might be Wade Miley’s best asset because he’s figured out a way to get hitters to swing at those pitches, at least lately.
SAN FRANCISCO +111 over Milwaukee
Zach Davies is 14-6 overall with a 4.26 ERA but on the road, Davies is 7-0 with a 2.52 ERA. Those road numbers will resonate in this market against not only the weak Giants but against an unknown pitcher by the name of Chris Stratton. Thing is, Davies is not even close to being as good as his surface stats suggest. Furthermore, the Giants are coming off a four-game set against the Phillies in which they split but San Fran lost both games on the weekend including yesterday when Ben Lively defeated Madison Bumgarner. Thus, San Fran lost two straight to Philadelphia while Milwaukee won two straight in Colorado, which sets up this buy-low/sell high scenario.
Zach Davies has a weak BB/K split of 45/94 in 144 innings. His weak 7% swing and miss rate backs up his low strikeout total. In his last start against the Pirates, a 3-1 Milwaukee victory, Davies’ swing and miss rate was 4% after he struck out two batters in seven frames. One of the batters he struck out was pitcher Ivan Nova. He's struck out only 13% of the batters he's faced, down from 20% in 2016 and has reached double digit swinging strikes just once in his last 14 starts. The drop in K’s has him walking a pretty thin line. Davies’ 1.39 WHIP is not even at our barely acceptable level of 1.30. Here’s a guy that’s getting tremendous run support along with a slew of good fortune and the result is 14 wins with a great road ERA. All told, he doesn’t miss enough bats, he doesn’t stay ahead of hitters and his home/away xERA split is 4.99/4.89. Other than a strong groundball rate, Davies’ other skills are weak and he therefore has limited upside. On the road as the favorite, he’s nothing but fade material.
Matt Cain gets bumped to the bullpen and the beneficiary of that is Chris Stratton, who has made two starts since Cain’s demotion. Giants manager Bruce Bochy said that Stratton won't be a one-time deal either, meaning the rotation spot is his for the rest of the year with a chance to stick next year too. In his last start against Washington’s respected lineup, out of nowhere, Stratton struck out 10 batters, walked just one and allowed a mere six baserunners in 6.2 innings of work. He now has 18 K’s in 16 innings this year.
We can’t say just yet if his early results are a fluke or not. What we can say is that Stratton didn’t get overly lucky to get these results, as his fastball command was on point with a curveball that induced plenty of bad swings 19.2%). His slider and change hint at upside, though it would be asking a lot for Stratton to touch his ceiling with at least three of his pitches all working on a given night. He does have a four-pitch arsenal but he also had a 5.11 ERA through 15 Triple-A starts in 2017 and had been nothing short of a disappointment in his first two starts in the majors way back in April before this second call-up. Nevertheless, even if he doesn’t pitch at his best, Stratton should be heavily considered here because he was a high prospect back in 2012 and has a 14% swing and miss rate since he returned. He’ll now face a Brewers team that strikes out more than any team in baseball and that is coming off an intense and very important three-game set in Colorado in which the Crew won on Saturday and Sunday to take two of three. Physically and mentally, it’s a letdown spot for the Brewers and even if it wasn’t, Davies is a good fade when favored on the road.
Brandon Lee
Mariners vs. Braves
Play: Mariners -112
Seattle is worth a look here as they look to bounce back from a 3-0 loss on Sunday at Tampa. The Mariners took the series against the Rays and are 4-1 in their last 5. I like their chances of bouncing back here against a Braves team that's just playing for pride at this point. Seattle on the other hand is still in the mix for an AL Wild Card spot. Mariners offense should be able to put up a big number here against Mike Foltynewicz, who has allowed 14 runs on 16 hits and 7 walks in his last 2 starts, which span a mere 6 innings of work. Seattle will give the rock to Andrew Albers, who allowed just 1 run on 6 hits against the Orioles in his first start at the big league level this year. Albers had gone 12-3 with a 2.61 ERA at Triple-A prior to that outing.
Teddy Davis
Rangers vs. Angels
Play: Angels -142
Odds makers are clearly hinted here who they believe will come through in tonight's game. Hamels is in great form and having a great year with an 8-1 record. His ERA on the road is just average at 4.00. The Angels are just quietly a red hot team that no one is paying attention to. They have won 10 of their last 12 games and Skaggs is in really good form with a 1.64 ERA his last three starts.
Jack Jones
Minnesota Twins +131 Game 1
The Minnesota Twins are currently in a tie for the 2nd wild card spot in the American League with the Los Angeles Angels. They just swept the Diamondbacks last series and are now 11-3 in their last 14 games overall, playing their best baseball of the season at the right time.
We are getting tremendous value on the Twins in Game 1 of this double-header with the White Sox, who are 47-74 on the season and own the worst record in the American League. The White Sox are just 2-6 in their last eight games overall coming in.
Tim Melville is 4-3 with a 2.70 ERA at Triple-A Rochester. He has a 2.42 ERA with 49 K's and 15 walks in 49 innings over his last eight starts. He'll go against Carlos Rodon, who is 1-4 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.389 WHIP in nine starts this season.
The Twins are 10-2 in their last 12 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The White Sox are 16-38 in their last 54 overall. Minnesota is a very profitable 32-24 (+15.1 units) on the road this season.
Brad Wilton
Comp play for Monday is the Giants and Browns to land Under the total.
The starters get longer looks here in Week 2, and of course next week as well, but that doesn't always translate to points.
Take yesterday's 2 games for example, as both the Falcons-Steelers, and the Saints-Chargers held Under the posted total.
The Giants were only able to score 12 points last week at home against Pittsburgh in a game that stayed Under the total, while the Browns racked up 20 points in a home win over New Orleans. That game against the Saints holding Under the total.
I see tonight's game landing in that 20-14, 17-14 price range which would mean another Under is in store for this spotlight preseason contest.
Play the Giants-Browns to hold just Under for Monday.
1* N.Y. GIANTS-CLEVELAND UNDER
Rob Vinciletti
Arizona at New York
Play: New York
The Mets may be struggling but they have won both times as a home dog off a -140 or higher home favored loss and Arizona is 3-6 as a road favorite in this range. In fact road favorites since 2004 that lost by 2+ runs on the road and are now taking on a team off a -140+ home favored loss and scored 3 or less are a dismal 2-12, Arizona is hitting just .217 the past week. We may see a motivated Robert Gsellman on the mound tonight after GM Sandy Alderson seemed to light a ire mentioning that Gsellman needs to pitch well to stay up here. Look for the Mets to take the opener.
Bruce Marshall
Arizona at New York
Pick: Over
This looks a rather dubious pitching matchup tonight at Citi Field. Struggling Arizona has not been getting too much lately from Taijuan Walker, losing in his last 7 starts, games in which Walker allowed at least one homer in each. Meanwhile, the Mets' Robert Gsellman is just one start into a return from a near 2-month spell on the DL and owns a 5.98 ERA.
Doug Upstone
Mariners vs. Braves
Play: Under 9½
Atlanta's Mike Foltynewicz (4.75 ERA) has been shelled in his past two starts after being effective most of the year. After striking out 11 with no walks versus Miami, Foltynewicz has walked seven and struckout six in only six innings over two starts and been crushed for 14 runs. Both of those starts were on the road and being back home, where he is has a steadier 3.68 ERA, Foltynewicz should be more reliable.
Andrew Albers will start for Seattle and his motivation will be high, after being traded by the Braves to the Mariners recently. Albers had a 2.61 ERA at Atlanta's Triple-A club this season and allowed one run in five innings six days ago in his only start this season. Probably tempting fate with these two pitchers, but my money will be on the UNDER 9.5.
John Martin
Mariners vs. Braves
Play: Mariners -109
The Seattle Mariners are just 1.5 games out of the last wild card spot right now. They have a lot to play for and will certainly be going into Atlanta on a mission Monday. The Mariners are 4-1 in their last five games overall and have scored at least 7 runs in three of their last four. The Braves are just 8-19 in their last 27 games overall. Mike Foltynewicz has been rocked in his last two starts, giving up 14 earned runs in 6 innings for a 21.00 ERA. Andrew Albers was efficient in his first and only start this season on August 15th, giving up 1 earned run in 5 innings of a 3-1 victory over the Baltimore Orioles. The Mariners are 14-6 in their last 20 road games, including 9-2 in thei
Dave Price
Rangers vs. Angels
Play:Rangers +146
The Texas Rangers are chasing the Los Angeles Angels in the wild card race, making this a big series for them. The Rangers are 8-3 in their last 11 games overall with all 3 losses coming by exactly one run. They are playing well right now, making this +146 price a very nice value. Not to mention they have their ace on the mound in Cole Hamels, who is 8-1 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 15 starts this year, including 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Tyler Skaggs is getting too much love from the books today. He is 1-1 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 3 home starts this year. Hamels is 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 7 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles, while Skaggs is 2-1 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 6 lifetime starts vs. Texas. Hamels has allowed just 1 earned run and 12 base runners in 14 2/3 innings in his two starts against the Angels in 2017.
Pro Computer Gambler
Twins vs. White Sox
Play: Twins +131
Since 2004, weekday divisional road dogs off of a win have gone 1078-1282 +185.57 units +8.1% roi. After August 20th's (and into the playoffs), pitchers with under 3 starts (that's usually a callup or a guy coming off an injury) on the season filtering out guys who are 2-0 go 117-69 SU +67.45 units +31.5% roi with high totals (>9.5).
Eric Schroeder
My free play is on the Over in the National League showdown between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Pittsburgh Pirates.
For the year, the Dodgers are hitting just .257, which ranks 15th in the league. But they're also ranked sixth in the bigs with 621 runs across the plate. This team can score, with a lineup loaded with hard hitters. And if Pittsburgh wants to keep up against what might be a travel-weary team that played in Motown over the weekend, it will need to attack offensively.
It's hard to knock Wood, has been lights out. But it doesn't mean he isn't hittable, and it doesn't mean he can't give up three of the runs we need.
Cole, meanwhile, just gave up three home runs in six innings on Wednesday in Milwaukee, and has now allowed 26 homers this season - more than double his previous career high. He could be in trouble tonight, as the Dodgers were held to one run yesterday and will be looking to rebound.
2* Dodgers/Tigers Over
Chris Jordan
My free play for Monday night is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Pittsburgh Pirates, and we're going to play this on the Run Line.
Wood has won his last three starts to improve to 14-1 on the season. He steps to the hill with confidence tonight, as he threw five shutout innings while striking out 11 versus the Pirates on May 8 in Los Angeles.
Meanwhile, fireballing Cole continues to be hurt by the long ball, as he allowed four runs on five hits - including three home runs - over six innings last Wednesday in Milwaukee. The hard-throwing right-hander has been tattered for 26 homers this season, more than double his previous career high.
Take the Dodgers on the Run Line.
3* DODGERS -1.5
Jeff Benton
Monday freebie is the Over in the Boston-Cleveland meeting with Rodriguez and Clevinger serving them up.
Boston just played 2 of 3 Under at home against New York, while Cleveland just played 2 of 3 games Over on the road at Kansas City.
Eduardo Rodriguez did allow 4 runs to score in his last start, and he has allowed 4 runs to score in 3 of his last 5 starts overall. Cleveland has the bats to put up at least 4 on Rodriguez tonight.
Mike Clevinger worked out of the bullpen his last time to the mound, allowing 2 runs on 3 hits in just under 3 innings of relief work. His season ERA at Progressive Field stands at 5.08. He did make a July start against Boston and was tagged for 5 runs on 7 hits in his 3 innings of work.
Let's look for the runs to score Monday night in Cleveland.
3* BOSTON-CLEVELAND OVER