Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Monday, August 22nd, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
CHICAGO VS. SAN DIEGO
PLAY:CHICAGO 1ST HALF
Generally speaking, laying juice while also trying to beat the runs line with the favorite is not what I’d term a winning strategy. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t occasions where it’s an unacceptable process, and I see tonight’s Cubs-Padres game falling into that category.
Jon Lester has regained his usual winning form for the Cubs. It seems unlikely to me that the Padres will do much damage to the talented southpaw. If you look at the full season data for the Friars, it appears that they’re quite productive against opposing lefties. Maybe that should read that they were putting up some impressive numbers. But this team is no longer configured the same way with the trading deadline maneuvers, and the current performance data against southpaws has dropped off in a very big way.
I’ll admit that Edwin Jackson sure surprised me with a couple of strong starts for San Diego. But even a broken clock is correct twice each day, and sure enough, what I’d call the real Edwin Jackson resurfaced in his most recent start. Jackson got blown up, and I expect a similar fate for the veteran righty this evening.
Jackson just doesn’t have the right stuff to stifle the Cubs. The BB/K ratio is unimpressive. Jackson is no longer a particularly hard thrower, with his average fastball now in the 92 range. Therefore, location is more vital than ever for a guy who simply doesn’t have great command. Jackson doesn’t induce much in the way of soft contact, so there’s a pretty good chance we’re going to see a bomb or two launched tonight by a team that can ravage this type.
Anything is always possible in any one baseball game, so maybe Jackson has one of those nights and the Padres get to Lester. But the paper trail is pretty clear on this one and after getting waxed yesterday at Coors, I expect a much different result tonight at Petco. I’m going to spot the -1.5 here and roll with the Cubs.
Rocketman
Boston @ Tampa Bay
Play: Boston -140
The Boston Red Sox travel to Tampa Bay to take on the Rays on Monday night. Boston is 69-53 SU overall this year while Tampa Bay comes in with a 51-70 SU overall record on the season. David Price takes the mound for Boston where he is 2-1 with a 3.32 ERA his last 3 starts. Blake Snell hasn't pitched bad this year but his control isn't that great. He has 10 walks his past 3 starts, 22 walks in 7 starts at home and 35 walks in his 12 starts overall this season. Snell has a 6.75 ERA in his one start vs Boston in his career. Boston is 6-1 last 7 games overall where they are scoring 6.9 runs per game. Boston is allowing only 2.3 runs per game their past 7 games overall where their opponents have a combined team batting average of only .193. Tampa Bay is scoring only 3.9 runs per game at home this year. Tampa Bay is 19-40 this year when playing a team with a winning record. We'll recommend a small play on Boston tonight!
Sleepyj
Dodgers / Reds Under 9
Needing 10 runs to beat us seems a bit tough with these two on the mound....Dodgers bats have slowed down a decent amount on the road in this series...Now they face Homer Bailey who has looked ok in his 4 starts....Bailey has limited his walks and hits in 3 of those 4 starts this year...Strikeouts have been solid and the Dodgers not seeing him leads me to believe it could be a struggle to get the Dodgers a bunch of runs...Dodgers will counter with Kazmir... He has been avg this season, but the Reds haven't had a look at him since late May...So the hitting will need to be on par for both sides here...Both pitchers coming off solid outings should give them confidence in this one...Reds struggle Vs. LHP and we have that today...Dodgers are rather sharp Vs. RHP.....A concern here would be the Dodgers looking to get out of dodge being this is the last game of the road trip..Perhaps they look ahead here in this one and come in a bit sluggish Vs. Bailey....Under looks good here needing 10 runs to beat us..Under we go !!
Rob Vinciletti
Braves vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks -143
Arizona has won 4 of the last 5 here in the series against Atlanta. The Braves are a dismal 1-11 as a road dog off a home dog win and 2-10 on Mondays. Arizona is averaging over 6 runs the past week and qualify in a nice Power system that has won 15 of the last 17 times playing on home favorites off a 5+ run road loss scoring 2 or less runs on 5+ hits vs a team off a home win. Godley pitches better at home and the Braves have lost all 3 starts Fltynewicz has made against Arizona and he has a6.23 era in those starts. Play on Arizona.
Art Aronson
Rockies vs. Brewers
Play: Over 9
Setting the scene: Chad Bettis has struggled on the road. Jimmy Nelson has lost six straight. We think these struggling starters will get chased early which will then ultimately lead to this one sneaking above the number at the end of the night.
Bettis: He’s 10-6 with a 5.29 ERA. He’s looked brilliant at times this year, but also very average in others. Note that he owns a poor 5.20 ERA on the road.
Nelson: He’s 6-13 with a 4.31 ERA. A strong start to the 2016 campaign is in the rear view mirror now, most recently he’d give up six runs to the Cubs over six innings on Wednesday.
The bottom line: With these two explosive hurlers colliding on Monday night, we’re going to highly recommend a second look at the OVER in this matchup.
Matt Josephs
Rockies vs. Brewers
Play: Rockies -109
Jimmy Nelson is lost right now as he takes the mound against the Rockies on Monday. Nelson has lost six straight starts allowing 34 runs over his last 28 innings. He is 4-6 with a 3.24 ERA in 13 starts this season. Colorado's in good form offensively after beating up on Cubs pitching on Sunday. Milwaukee's bullpen has a 4.26 ERA at home. They are flying home from a rough series in Seattle although they did pick up a win on Sunday. Chad Bettis is 10-6 with a 5.28 ERA in 25 starts this season. Bettis beat the Brewers last year in Colorado holding them to one run and five hits in just over six innings. The Brewers entered Sunday hitting just .202 in their last seven. The Rockies have won four of their last seven in Milwaukee. I like that trend to continue on Monday.
Scott Rickenbach
Indians vs. A's
Play: A's +1½
Though the Indians got a come-from-behind win yesterday, they were only 3-3 in their 6 prior games. Also, yesterday's game was the 4th straight one run game that Cleveland has been involved with. 4 of the last 5 wins that the Indians have had have come by just a single run. As a result, there is great value being offered with the run line (+1.5 runs) on Oakland Monday. The A's Andrew Triggs has only made 3 starts this season but he has compiled a 0.79 WHIP in those outings as hits have been few and far between and he's not walked a single batter in his 3 starts. Though he may not pitch deep into this game he's supported by an Oakland bullpen that has a 3.38 ERA in home games this season. Cleveland will start Carlos Carrasco. Though the right-hander has some solid numbers on the season, he has given up 30 hits in the 24 innings spanning his last four starts. Also, Carrasco has a 6.66 ERA in those 4 outings. Grab the underdog value here.
John Ryan
Indians vs. A's
Play: A's +143
Technical Discussion Points: The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oakland is a solid 15-7 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a good team winning between 54% to 62% of their games in games played in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Cleveland starts Carrasco and his team record is a money losing 10-22 (-17.1 Units) against the money line facig teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season since 1997. Further, Oakland is a solid 16-9 (+9.2 Units) against the money line in home games with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games this season. We know how much Biene loves OBP.
Frank Jordan
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds +118
Cincinnati and LA Dodgers playing the ever rare wrap around series Friday through Monday. Cincinnati took the first two games 9-2 and 11-1, but it was all LA on Sunday winning 4-0. That win by the Dodgers plus the loss by San Francisco puts the Dodgers in first place in the West in the NL. The Reds are throwing Homer Bailey and they are 3-1 in his four starts this year. Bailey is 2-1 with a 3.66 ERA and has allowed just one run in his last two starts. LA Dodgers are throwing Scott Kazmir who is 10-6 on the year with an ERA of 4.41, but is just 1-3 in his last four starts. Kazmir has made 11 road starts and comes into this game with a 6-0 record and 4.77 ERA. Look for the Reds to get back to winning over the Dodgers behind Bailey and send Kazmir to his first road loss of the season winning the game and series 3-1.
Larry Ness
Boston vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay
The set-up: The Boston Red Sox will cap an 11-game road trip with four games at Tampa Bay Monday thru Thursday. Boston owns a 69-54 record, which has them a half-game behind the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East, while also currently holding down the No. 1 spot in the AL wild card spot. As for the Rays, their role the remainder of the season can be nothing more than that of a playoff ‘spoiler.’ Tampa Bay does come in with seven wins in its last eight games, giving them an 18-16 record since the break. However, it’s a little difficult to overlook the team’s 52-70 mark on the year.
David Price (11-8, 4.19 ERA) will take the mound in a very familiar spot tonight, Tropicana Field. He was drafted first overall in the 2007 MLB Draft by the Rays but was traded back in 2014 to the Tigers. The Tigers then sent him to the Blue Jays last season, with the 2012 Cy Young winner signing a seven-year, $217 million FA contract with the Red Sox before the start of the 2016 season. Price has hardly delivered as hoped in 2016, with just 11 wins in 26 starts. Boston is 13-13 in those starts, losing $841 vs the moneyline at $100/game. Blake Snell (4-5, 3.06 ERA) gets the nod for the Rays but takes the mound having not completed six innings in any of his last four starts.
However, Snell also takes the mound having allowed two ERs or less in his previous seven starts and note that in winning SEVEN of its last eight games, Tampa Bay has averaged 7.9 runs. I’m jumping on this VERY live home dog!
Jim Feist
Atlanta at Arizona
Pick: Over
The Braves snapped a seven game losing streak on Sunday, beating the Nationals, 7-6. The Atlanta pitching staff has fallen apart, allowing 42 runs over their last five games.Mike Foltynewicz will try and improve those stats today. Foltynewicz has had trouble getting through innings without a lot of pitches. The righthander has been averaging 17.3 pitches per inning, which places him at the bottom of the efficiency chart. Arizona has won only three of their last 10 games. The D'backs will start Zach Godley tonight. The one-year pro has seven starts and 14 appearances this season. The D'Backs have gone over in Godley's last four starts. In addition, Arizona has gone over 19 of their last 26 home games. The last four meetings between these clubs has resulted in a 3-0-1 O/U mark.
Marc Lawrence
Washington at Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore
Edges - Orioles: Dylan Bundy 3.77 ERA with 0.96 WHIP home starts this season. Nationals: Stephen Strasburg sky-high 14.74 ERA last three starts. With the Birds 14-6 the last 20 games in this series, and 13-6 the last 19 games as a series host, and owning the best home field record in the A.L. this season, we recommend a 1* play on Baltimore.
ChaseDiamond
Dodgers at Reds
Play: Reds
This plus money game for us has the 68-55 Dodgers and the 53-70 Reds. Reds are playing better Baseball winners of 7 of their last 10 games.Scott Kazmir has been a ok pitcher this year for the Dodgers going 10-6 with a 4.41 ERA and that's pitching in a pitcher friendly division. Homer Bailey has been out most of the year but has come back and shown signs of his old self as he is 2-1 with a 3.66 ERA. Last time out he got a no decision and a week ago he struckout 11 batters. Dodgers are on the last game of a long 7 game road trip. Reds were shutout yesterday but I look for them to get back on the scoreboard today and I love the plus money with the home team and better pitcher. 66% of the public are backing the road team here but not us we will take the plus money and the home
Don Best Consensus
Chicago at San Diego
Pick: Chicago
The Cubs are 20-7 in their last 27 overall. San Diego are 1-11 in their last 12 games following a win. Cubs starter Lester is 6-2 with a 3.88 ERA on the road.