Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the Over in the Red Sox-Rays opener from Tropicana Field.
A couple of southpaws on the hill tonight, as former Ray David Price and current Ray Blake Snell do the mound-work, and both have been solid Over wager pitchers this season.
Price comes into this start with his highest ERA ever at this point in the season (4.19), and the Over has connected in each of his last 4 starts, and 5 of his last 6 starts overall.
He is also just 2-3 with a 5.11 ERA against his former team since leaving the Sunshine State.
Blake Snell enters with a bunch of solid starts to his credit this summer, but the Over does stand at 3-1 for his last 4 trips to the bump on the year.
Tampa played all 3 games at home over the weekend versus Texas Over the total, and the Over is 8-1 their last 9 at home.
I say look for another Over on Monday as the Sox and Rays tangle.
5* BOSTON-TAMPA BAY OVER
SPORTS WAGERS
CINCINNATI +129 over Los Angeles
After scoring 21 runs in their first two games of this series, Cinci was shut out yesterday but don’t expect their bats to be silent this afternoon against Scott Kazmir. Everything from Kazmir’s durability to his skills is questionable. The oft-injured Kazmir hasn’t logged more than 190 innings since 2007, so there is sizable risk here that he’s tiring and his underlying stats support that. Kazmir walked three batters in his last start while whiffing just one and now has a BB/K split of 10/19 over his past five starts covering 28 innings. The two runs he allowed to Philly in that last start was nothing but good fortune, as many balls were hit hard, Kazmir had to deal with two baserunners or more in every inning and barely made it through five. His 40%/24%/36% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is a weak one that does not figure to play well at Great American Ballpark. It's amazing how helpful or hurtful the hit% and strand% pendulum can be. While Kazmir’s skills continue to erode, he is often saved by a friendly strand rate. Because we can't bet on that happening every start, neither can we expect him to thrive. What we have here is a rising xERA trend. Kazmir’s xERA over his last five starts of 5.52 (7.08 in his last start) is the second worst in the majors. Let’s not dismiss that Kazmir had a huge 2H skill erosion last year too. The recommendation is to stay away from Kazmir when he’s favored because he’ll very likely struggle to return a profit.
The Dodgers are favored here because why? It may surprise you to learn that the Reds have the second best record in the NL since the All-Star break and Homer Bailey is looking better with each passing start. Last year, Bailey started just two games before Tommy John struck in May. He returned just four games ago so that would make it nearly two full years without regular action so yeah, he’s well rested. In his four starts, Bailey has a sweet BB/K split of 6/27 over 20 innings. His throwing at 94 MPH and those 27 K’s has the support of a smart 12% swing and miss rate. The sample size is small but the numbers are not, as Bailey’s xERA of 2.85 is outstanding. He’s likely to get stretched out a little bit more here against the beatable Dodgers. Bailey threw six full innings two starts ago and five full in last start. Over those 11 innings, he struck out 17 and walked just two. Since returning, the Reds have won three of his four starts. Again, the Dodgers are favored here because why? Huge overlay.
N.Y. Yankees -114 over SEATTLE
Michael Pineda is 6-10 with a 4.89 ERA after 24 starts. He had a 5-0 lead against Toronto in his last start after five innings when the rains came and he did not return. Incidentally, the Yanks lost that game and we frustratingly ripped up our tickets. Just like some pitchers are very lucky, others can get unlucky too for an extended period of time and that applies to Pineda. That his ERA is one of the highest among AL starters with 100 innings or more is ludicrous. Pineda continues to be saddled with a trifecta of bad luck with a high 36% hit rate, low 65% strand rate and high 18% hr/f rate. Pineda has filthy stuff. He has 154 K’s in 136 frames with just 38 walks issued. He also has a 15% swing and miss rate, which is in Clayton Kershaw territory. Pineda also owns better skills with runners on base than any starter in MLB not named Kershaw with 10 K’s/9, 0.8 BB’s/9 and 45% groundballs. Again, he has been victimized by a crazy trifecta of terrible luck in that situation with a 38% hit rate and 16% (!) strand rate. With a 3.23 xERA, Pineda is the premier buy-low starting pitcher in baseball. His surface stats (4.89 ERA) keep him grossly undervalued and once we’ll attempt to exploit that.
Cody Martin evenly priced against Pineda is silly. Martin’s ERA is 3.14 but that means jack because he has a mere 14 innings pitched this season. This 26-year-old career minor-leaguer was called up on June 3. Prior to his call-up, Martin was hit hard in the minors, with batters hitting .325 off him. That resulted in a 7.92 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. Martin is a two-pitch pitcher with a slider and fastball. He’s petrified to throw a curve or change because he’s gets slaughtered whenever he does. Therefore, if the slider is missing the plate, big trouble looms. If he’s throwing strikes with the slider, big trouble still looms because Martin’s swing and miss rate is a pitiful 4%. As a reliever, Martin was not striking out guys. He’s made one start over six appearances and has 7 K’s over his 14 innings. In that one start, his WHIP was 2.08. Martin has pitched parts of the last five seasons at Triple-A. He has proven just about all he can there (which isn’t much) and right now he’s just holding the fort until Seattle’s decimated rotation gets healthy. Martin is starting here only because the M’s options are very limited. This is NOT and even pitching matchup and therefore the price on the Yanks (and Pineda) is way off. Invest.
SPORTS WAGERS
Las Palmas +½ +123 over VALENCIA
Las Palmas made their return to the top flight of La Liga last season and expectations were low, as it had been 15-years since their last appearance. Built mostly around inexpensive local players, Las Palmas had a horrible start to the 2015-16 campaign and a 4-0 loss to Getafe was the last straw as manager Paco Herrera was axed. You might think it's hyperbole to say anything an 11th place squad accomplished was remarkable but the fact that Las Palmas was able to overcome their 1-5-2 start to leapfrog nine other clubs was a huge accomplishment. Under new manager Quique Setien, the Yellows had their best finish in the top flight since 1979. They’re now playing with house money and are very undervalued coming into this season. Las Palmas is led by Jonathan Viera, who's playing like a man possessed this summer and after getting a taste of the top flight, he looks determined to stay there. A nation team spot may also be in his future. Las Palmas won five of their seven preseason matches and added some nice players in the off season with Kevin-Prince Boateng from AC Milan, Asdrúbal Hernández from Leganes, and Marko Livaja from Empoli. Las Palmas has a very solid foundation to build on from last year and in the season’s first game, they have a great chance kick off the season right against a Valencia side that finished behind them in the standings a year ago.
For all the positives its opponents have to point to about its middle of the pack finish last year, Valencia is a much different story. Former manager Gary Neville was fired and replaced with one of his assistant, Pako Ayesaran in March after a disastrous season where expectations were high. Valencia missed the final Europa League qualifying berth by eight points, which is pretty embarrassing considering they are one of the richest clubs in the top flight. This has not been money well spent. The Bats are also one of the oldest and most recognized clubs in La Liga and that has them overvalued in nearly every game they play. They shelled out another 7.2 million pounds to snatch Nani from Fenerbache but Valecia's problems will not be solved by one man. Now there is a TON of pressure on Ayesaran to turn things around and ownership has already made it known they are looking for a place in the Champions League, a lofty goal to be sure. It's going to be difficult for the rookie manager to pull the nose up on this thing and he could be in for rude awakening in game one. This is a classic tale of two clubs headed in different directions. Many in the market expect Valencia to return to form here because they are “Valencia” but we find much more appeal in the scrappy underdogs from the Canary Island.
Buster Sports
Yankees at Mariners
Play: Yankees -110
When the Yankees unloaded a bunch of their players before the trade deadline everyone thought they had given up on their season. Well the New Yankees are only 4 games out of a wildcard spot with a lot of baseball yet to be played. Tonight they start RH Michael Pineda (6-10, 4.89 ERA) Pineda has had a real up and down year for the Yankees in 2016 but it seems he has been turning it around of late with a 3.18 ERA and a WHIP of 1.235 in his last 3 starts. The Mariners send RH Cody Martin (1-2, 3.14 ERA) to the hill and Martin has done a good job for the Mariners coming out of the pen this year and this will be his second start for the team. Although taking a closer look and you see Martin has a career record of 3-7 and a 6.40 ERA with a WHIP of 1.60. We believe we have the better pitcher at great value so we will take it. Backing our selection is the fact that the Yankees are 14-3 in the last 17 meetings in Seattle.
Jeffrey James
Cleveland Indians -150
Have to love the Indians here since they have been playing very well right now and Carrasco has been solid all season. This is the first game of the road trip for Cleveland so they should not be bothered by the travel yet and the A's have had trouble at home this season. Take the Indians here to get this win as the play of the day.
GoodFella
Cubs TT Over 5
The Padres sent out Jackson tonight. He's really struggled this season & a match up vs this very talented and deep Cubs lineup does not set up well for him tonight. I fully expect this deep Cubs lineup to get to Jackson eventually and then we get into that poor Padres bullpen for the rest of the game. These Cubs crush RH pitching and rank 3rd in the league in .OPS (.767). I also like the fact that the Cubs are the visiting club, so we're assured of getting our 9 innings of at-bats. I really expect these Cubs to plate at least 5 runs before this game goes final & I'm on their Team Total going OVER 5 runs on Monday Night.
Brandon Lee
Cubs -1½ -128
Chicago is worth a look on the run line Monday against the Padres. The Cubs are going to come out with a chip on their shoulder after yesterday's embarrassing 4-11 loss to the Rockies. It was just a minor setback, as Chicago is still a dominant 19-5 over their last 24 games. San Diego on the other hand is just 3-6 over their last 9 and are at a big disadvantage here on the mound. The Cubs will send out Jon Lester, who is 13-4 with a 2.86 ERA in 24 starts and is in great form with a 2.29 ERA in his last 3 starts. Padres will give the ball to Edwin Jackson, who has a 5.20 ERA in 6 starts and was absolutely rocked in his last outing, giving up 8 runs on 9 hits and 3 walks in just 4 innings of an ugly 15-1 loss at Tampa Bay. I look for the Cubs offense to put up a big number here.
Jack Jones
Milwaukee Brewers +110
The Milwaukee Brewers are undervalued right now after losing six of their last seven games overall. But all seven came on the road against the Cubs and Mariners. The Rockies come in overvalued after winning four of their last five, all of which came at home.
Milwaukee has held its own at home this season with a 33-29 record. Starter Jimmy Nelson has also been at his best at home, going 4-6 with a 3.24 ERA over 13 starts. I believe Nelson is clearly the better starter in this matchup tonight.
Colorado will be giving the ball to Chad Bettis, who is 10-6 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.486 WHIP in 25 starts this season. Bettis has posted a 6.43 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 10 earned runs and 27 base runners in only 14 innings.
Milwaukee is 11-5 (+10.1 Units) against the money line after having lost six or seven of their last eight games this season. The Rockies are 1-5 in their last six road games.
Jimmy Boyd
Pittsburgh Pirates -144
This is a great spot to back the Pirates at home against the Astros. Pittsburgh is going to come out extremely motivated after getting swept at home by the Marlins over the weekend. Houston on the other hand is poised for a letdown after taking 3 of the final 4 at Baltimore, plus they will be playing their 12th road game out of the last 14 games overall.
On top of the motivational edge Pittsburgh has, the Pirates also own a clear advantage on the mound with Jameson Taillon going up against Doug Fister. Taillon has a 1.80 ERA and 0.9500 WHIP in his last 3 starts, while Fister owns a 5.29 ERA and 1.706 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Fister has been especially bad in his last two starts, giving up 9 runs on 15 hits in just 11 innings of work.
Houston is a mere 3-9 in their last 12 against a right-handed starter and 0-4 in their last 4 against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 on the season. Pirates are 5-1 in their last 6 against the AL West, 5-1 in their last 6 during Game 1 of a series, 6-2 in their last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less and 5-0 in Taillon's last 5 home starts.
Michael Alexander
Boston Red Sox -150
The Red Sox are 5-2 so far on their road trip but come in off a disappointing 10-5 setback that left them with a split in Detroit on Sunday. Boston has taken eight of its last 10 overall and will play a combined 13 games against the Blue Jays and the Baltimore Orioles next month as the three clubs battle it out for AL East supremacy. The Rays dropped out of that AL East race a long time ago. Boston starter, Price earned a rain-shortened, complete-game victory at Baltimore on Wednesday, limiting the Orioles to one run and four hits in six innings. That makes two straight wins for the former Cy Young Award winner, who appears to be back in top form after struggling through a winless five-start stretch bridging July and August. Price, who was the No. 1 overall pick by Tampa Bay in 2007, tossed eight scoreless innings against the Rays on July 10.
Dave Price
Cleveland Indians -159
The Oakland A's are 1-7 in their last 8 games overall and had a fight in their clubhouse between Billy Butler and Danny Valencia over the weekend. I don't give them much of a chance today against the Cleveland Indians. Cleveland gives the ball to Carlos Carrasco, who has been virtually untouchable on the road this year. Carrasco is 5-3 with a 1.97 ERA and 0.809 WHIP in 9 road starts. Carrasco is also 1-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.625 WHIP in 2 lifetime starts vs. Oakland. Cleveland is 11-1 in its last 12 vs. AL West opponents. The Indians are 27-9 in their last 36 vs. a team with a losing record. Clevelan dis 8-1 in Carrasco's last 9 starts during game 1 of a series. The A's are 1-10 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Power Sports
Washington vs. Baltimore
Pick: Washington
The first "Battle for the Beltway" comes at an important time. Both teams are in the thick of playoff races in their respective leagues. The Nats are in a much better place w/ an 8.5 game lead in the NL East. You have to think their postseason fate is quite safe. This team has actually played better than its 73-50 record as a +145 run differential indicates a 78-win pace. Meanwhile, Baltimore is just the opposite as their run differential (+18) is indicative of a worse record than their actual 67-56 mark. They just dropped three in row, at home, to Houston. With Strasburg pitching the opener, I like Washington tonight.
Last September, the O's went to D.C. and swept the Nats. Though nearly a year has passed, I think the revenge angle still matters here. Washington lost Sunday, but they'd won three in a row and six of eight previously. They are the better team here and have gone 11-5 vs. the American League this year. They also have the second best road record in baseball. As mentioned before, Baltimore has been slipping. Not only have they lost three straight, but also five of six and all have come at home, which is a bad sign.
Strasburg is 0-3 his L3 starts w/ a 14.65 ERA and 2.571 WHIP. That's obviously terrible. But I still believe in him as he's 8-1 on the road w/ a 3.00 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He's opposed by Dylan Bundy, who allowed five runs his last time out. With Washington averaging 7.0 rpg its last seven and Baltimore allowing 8.1 rpg during the same time, it's obvious which offense is in better form. Washington is the better team.
Micah Roberts
Nationals at Orioles
Play: Orioles
The Orioles have lost three straight and five of their last six, a span occurred at Camden Yards where they had been virtually unbeatable all season. They're at home again tonight against the Nationals for the beltway series. The angle in this game to play off of is not the Orioles recent struggles, but rather how Stephen Strasburg has been hit so often. His last three starts have been horrendous -- all losses: gave up 9 runs at Colorado (-115) in his last starts, gave up 6 runs to the Braves (-235), and before that he gave up 4 runs to the Giants (-210). He had been stellar all season and as you can see by the price, his pitcher rating has dropped probably more rapidly between two starts than any other pitcher this season. While I'm not getting the price I had hoped for I'm going bet against the struggling pitcher rather than the struggling team. The top play here is the O's to win.
Bob Balfe
Braves +115
The Braves have been hitting the ball a lot better the last few games, but were losing to better baseball teams. Atlanta gets a shot tonight to hit the ball and put up a lot of runs against a bad pitching staff and a bad bullpen. The Braves are due for a breakout game the way they have been fighting. This is the perfect opponent for Atlanta right now.
Bruce Marshall
Washington +132
The Orioles are wobbling again as Buck Showalter's overworked bullpen had a difficult time on the weekend vs. the Astros. Monday starter Dylan Bundy also showed signs of weakening in his last start when hammered on Wednesday by the Bosox, allowing five runs and nine hits in just 4 1/3 IP, and the Birds have now lost five of six to fall into 3rd place in the AL East. The Nats have made a late pitching switch with Stephen Strasburg sent to the DL, with AJ Cole recalled from AAA Syracuse to start this game. Still, have to like the price on Washington.
Houston +139
Bad weekend for the Pirates, as the Marlins came into PNC Park and pulled off the sweep just after the Bucs had done toe same at San Francisco. So much for bringing home momentum from a good road trip. Now Pittsburgh has to face a Houston offense that came alive over the weekend in Baltimore, and Pirates starter Jameson Taillon was a bit shaky for the first time since late June in his most recent start on Tuesday at San Francisco. Struggles lately for Astros starter Doug Fister, too, but he also allowed just one run over two starts and 12 IP vs. the potent Rangers and Rays earlier this month.