Free Picks for Monday, August 28th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
TIGERS VS. ROCKIES
PLAY: ROCKIES -165
This is the time of the baseball season where I’m more liberal in terms of being willing to spot bigger prices.
A good example is this game between the Tigers and Rockies. Detroit is playing out the string in what has been a very disappointing season. I’m sure the players are still trying, but everyone knows there are lame ducks galore on the roster right now. Heading to Denver for what is a nothing series from the Tigers perspective makes them potential fade material.
The Rockies have not played great ball recently, and they have to be thrilled at the prospect of getting back in gear for their playoff drive in what is a very winnable series.
Beyond that, I have little problem going against Jordan Zimmermann. He’s not the pitcher he used to be, and has morphed into a fly ball type who doesn’t get many swings and misses. That makes Zimmermann very vulnerable in a hitter’s heaven such as Coors. Mot that I’m wild about Antonio Senzatela, who’s pretty much little more than a back of the rotation type, but I give him an advantage here.
I’m actually a little surprised at the betting line here. The opener was considerably lower than I anticipated, and even after some adjustment, I still feel there’s actually a big of value on the hosts. I’m willing to spot the price here to back the Rockies.
Scott Rickenbach
Braves vs. Phillies
Play: Braves +146
Sometimes a pitcher on a strong run will have an off start and you chalk it up to an 'off night' and then he responds in the next start. However, when a pitcher again has another bad start the cause for concern is real and that is the case right now for Aaron Nola of the Phillies. He had a great stretch of 10 straight starts allowing 2 earned runs or less for the Phillies but he has followed it up with back to back poor starts versus the Giants and Marlins. In those two outings he has given up 12 earned runs in 11 and 1/3 innings and now faces a Braves team that does have familiarity with him. That is an edge for the Atlanta lineup considering Nola's recent struggles. The Braves sent Lucas Sims to the mound and the Phils have no familiarity with him so this is an edge for the right-hander. Sims has given up only 2 earned runs on just 8 hits in 11 innings of work spanning his last two starts. Considering current form of these two pitchers and with the Braves off of a shutout loss and the Phillies off of an upset win yesterday, there is a lot of line value here with the big road dog. The Braves are 13-10 (+$9,600) as a road dog of +125 to +175 this season. The Phillies are 25-57 in night games this season and 30-62 against right-handed starters. The Phils have only won consecutive games once in the past two weeks while the Braves have not lost 3 straight games a single time in the past two weeks.
Mike Lundin
Braves vs. Phillies
Play: Phillies -150
The Atlanta Braves will be on the road all week, starting with a three-game set at Philadelphia. The Phillies have won each of the last seven meetings here at Citizens Bank Park, and I think they have a clear advantage on the mound in tonight's matchup.
Lucas Sims (2-3, 4.13 ERA) will take the ball for Atlanta. The 23 year old is coming off six innings of three-hit ball against Seattle, but this will mark just his sixth career start in the big leagues, and inexperienced pitchers often struggle with consistency.
The Phillies turn to a young pitcher themselves, but 24 year old Aaron Nola (9-9, 3.58 ERA) is already considered the ace of the rotation here in his second season in the Major Leagues. The right-hander has taken a beating in each of his last two outings, but this is a good opportunity to get back on track as he's 4-1 with a solid 2.08 ERA in seven career meetings with Atlanta.
The Phillies own an 11-2 overall record over their division foe this season.
Rocketman
Braves vs. Phillies
Play: Phillies -150
The Atlanta Braves travel to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies on Monday night. Atlanta is 57-70 SU overall this year while Philadelphia comes in with a 47-81 SU overall record on the season. Lucas Sims is 1-1 with a 5.23 ERA on the road this year. Aaron Nola is 9-9 with a 3.58 ERA overall this year and 6-4 with a 3.38 ERA at home this season. Nola is 4-1 with a 2.08 ERA in his 6 career starts vs Atlanta. Atlanta is allowing 5.4 runs per game at night this year. Philadelphia is scoring 6 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Philadelphia has won 11 of 13 meetings overall vs Atlanta this year including a perfect 7-0 at home. Atlanta is 3-9 this year when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season. We'll recommend a small play on Philadelphia tonight!
Stephen Nover
San Francisco at San Diego
Play: San Diego +101
What's worse than backing the Padres? It's taking the Giants on the road. I want no part of that especially at Petco Park when facing Jhoulys Chacin.
Chacin is a bum on the road with a 6.96 ERA, but he's the nuts at home. No pitcher has been more effective at Petco Park this season than Chacin with a 1.86 home ERA and 7-2 record. Chacin has a good history against the Giants, too, with a 3-0 mark and 3.04 ERA.
The Giants are 21-45 on the road. They are 3-13 in their past 16 away games.
San Francisco has managed only 16 runs in its last seven games, an average of 2.2 runs per game. The Giants have hit the fewest homers in the majors and rank second-to-last in runs.
The Giants are pitching Jeff Samardzija, who has a 7.27 ERA in three appearances against San Diego this season. He's 3-7 with a 5.05 ERA on the road this year.
The Padres have beaten the Giants in nine of 13 meetings this season. San Diego is 4-0 versus San Francisco the past four times Chacin has started against them.
Marc Lawrence
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
Play: Red Sox -105
Edges - Red Sox: Pomeranz 5-2 with 1.80 ERA last seven overall team starts; and 10-2 team starts versus AL East this season; and 14-4 team starts at night this season… Blue Jays: Stroman 0-5 as a dog this season… With that look for Pomeranz to improve to 3-0 in his last three team starts against Toronto tonight. We recommend a 1* play on Boston.
Ben Burns
San Francisco at San Diego
Play: San Diego -103
These two clubs already have over 150 losses between them. Both lost again yesterday, each defeat coming against teams with a winning record. SD fell to 6-2 to the Marlins while SF was hammered 11-0 at Arizona.
Stepping down in class to face each other, its worth mentioning that the Padres have fared much better against fellow losing teams than have the Giants. While SF is a dismal 19-37 (-26.2) against sub-500 teams, SD is actually 34-28 (+11.5) against them.
Not surprisingly, the Padres are 9-4 (+7.7) in the season series, 4-2 (+3.1) here at Petco. Chacin, tonight's starter, is already 3-0 in four starts against the Giants on the season. The Padres were 4-0 in those games, winning by a combined score of 24-10. Chacin allowed three or fewer earned runs in each.
Chacin figures to be thrilled to back home. He's 7-2 with a 1.86 ERA here at San Diego. Thats the best home mark in the big leagues. On the other hand, Samardzija is 3-7 with a 5.05 ERA on the road. That includes a 7-1 loss here at Petco in July, Samardzija getting rocked for all seven runs.
Art Aronson
Marlins vs. Nationals
Play: Under 8
A couple of capable hurlers collide in this one on Monday night and in our opinion, all signs point to a lower-scoring “duel.”
Jose Urena: He’s 12-5 with a 3.68 ERA. Urena comes in off a win against Philadelphia on Tuedsay, giving up three runs off five hits over five innings. He’s now won five of his last seven starts, posting a respectable 3.12 ERA and elite 1.07 WHIP in the process (note that he’s 8-0 with a 4.05 ERA on the road this year.)
Max Scherzer: He’s 12-5 with a 2.25 ERA. Scherzer returns from the ten-day DL and will be looking to improve upon his 4-3, 2.77 ERA in front of the home town crowd.
The bottom line: Recent form displayed by these two “studs” suggests that runs will be at a premium in this one. Consider the UNDER.
Jimmy Boyd
Rays vs. Royals
Play: Rays+105
I like the value here with Tampa Bay against a Royals team that is playing with zero confidence right now. Kansas City has list 4 straight overall and were just swept in a 3-game series against division rival Cleveland. A series in which they didn't score a single run, getting outscored 20-0. The Rays on the other hand come in of a 3-2 win yesterday in the series finale at St Louis and are 5-2 over their last 7.
Tampa sends out Austin Pruitt, who will be making his 8th start. While he's got a 4.86 ERA overall, he owns a strong 3.14 ERA and 0.977 WHIP in 3 road starts. He should have an edge here with this being his first start against KC. The Royals will counter with Ian Kennedy, who is 0-6 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.442 WHIP in 12 home starts and enters this with an ugly 7.24 ERA and 1.902 WHIP in his last 3 outings.
Royals are a mere 4-14 over the last 2 seasons off a loss by 8 runs or more, 4-14 in their last 18 home games after being swept in a series by a division rival and 1-10 in their last 11 off a loss by 10 or more runs to a division rival.
ASA
Indians vs. Yankees
Play: Under 7
Very low total for an American League game but runs will be very hard to come by in this one. The Indians just finished a 3 game weekend sweep of the Royals where they did not allow a single run versus Kansas City. Not only has it been back to back to back shutouts for Cleveland, they've got staff ace Corey Kluber on the mound for this one. Kluber is 12-4 with a 2.65 ERA this season. Since June 1st, Kluber has an incredible 1.87 ERA in 16 starts! The Yankees will have Luis Severino toeing the rubber in this one. The Yanks right-hander overall numbers his last 8 starts doesn't really tell the full story of just how well Severino has pitched. The numbers are skewed by one bad start. Incredibly, in the other 7 starts, Severino has allowed 1 earned run or less in all 7 starts. In these 7 outings, Severino has compiled a phenomenal 0.79 ERA. You can see why we're expecting a true old-time pitchers duel in this one. The under is 38-21 in Indians road games this season and also 43-24 when they are off of a win. The under is 17-8 in the Yankees last 25 games facing teams with a winning record. FREE PLAY: Bet the UNDER in the New York Yankees game in early evening action Monday.
Chip Chirimbes
San Francisco at San Diego
Play: San Francisco -102
Both these clubs enter this fray on 3-game losing streaks but that is not so usual for teams that are a combined 44 games under the break-even mark. San Francisco will start Jeff Samardzija (8-12, 4.67 ERA) who has turned his season around going 4-1 with a 3.43 ERA in his last six starts while Jhoulys Chacin (11-9, 4.10) is looking to rebound from his last performance where he hit four batters allowing five runs in four innings.
Jim Feist
Giants vs. Padres
Play: Under 7½
This is a huge park, great for pitchers, and a pair of lousy offenses square off. San Francisco is second worst in baseball in runs scored. The Giants went 6 straight games under the total last week. Starter Jeff Samardzija allowed two runs (one earned) on six hits and two walks over six innings during Tuesday's game against the Brewers. He struck out four and did not factor into the decision, a 4-3 loss. San Diego is last in baseball in runs scored, on a 6-2-2 run under. Starter Jhoulys Chacin has a 1.86 ERA at home and this shapes up as a pitcher's duel.
Larry Wallace
Marlins vs. Nationals
Play: Marlins +200
Marlins are 13-3 in their last 16 games overall. Urena this year is 12-5 with a 3.86 ERA. In his last 3 starts he is 2-0. Urena does have a career ERA of 1.13 against the Nationals. The Marlins are 6-0 in their last 6 road games with Urena on the mound. The Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a win.
Larry Ness
Tampa Bay vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City -115
The Kansas City Royals return home to open a three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday. KC was not only swept in a three-game weekend series at Cleveland over the weekend but lost each contest without scoring a run. Friday's 4-0 loss was followed by a similar 4-0 loss on Saturday, before the Royals got routed 12-0 on Sunday! They have now failed to score in a franchise-record 34 consecutive innings! KC is all but finished in the AL Central (nine games back of the 1st-place Indians) but the silver lining is that they remain alive in the wild card chase, 2 1/2 games back of the Twins, a team the Royals will visit for a three-game series next weekend. However, first up are the Rays, who have won five of their last seven to close to within three games of the Twins.
Rookie Austin Pruitt (6-4, 5.76 ERA) takes the mound for Tampa Bay and Ian Kennedy (4-9, 5.09 ERA) for KC. Pruitt will be making his eighth career start and seventh in a row for the Rays, since entering the starting rotation back on July 28. His first six have not gone smoothly, as he's allowed 20 ERs over 34 innings (5.29 ERA), going 1-3 (Rays are 1-5). This marks his first career start against KC, although he allowed three runs (just one earned) on three hits in two innings of relief against the Royals back on May 8.
It's been a frustrating season for Kennedy, who enters this contest win-less in his last five starts (he's 0-3 with a 7.99 ERA but KC is 2-3). That's quite a drop-off for the pitcher who went 4-1 with a 3.88 ERA during June and July (team was in 8-2 his starts!). Kennedy is just 1-4 with a 4.64 ERA in eight lifetime starts vs Tampa Bay (teams are 3-5)..
It's impossible not to acknowledge that Kennedy is 0-6 with a 5.97 ERA in 12 home starts in 2017 or that he takes the mound tonight win-less in a franchise-record 16 straight home starts! However, while win-less at home in his 12 starts this season, the Royals are 5-7 in that span. Sure, KC comes in on a 34-inning scoreless streak but in Pruitt, faces a pitcher who has allowed 14 ERs on 22 hits over his last three starts (covering 16.2 innings), giving him a 7.56 ERA. KC breaks through!