Will Rogers
Detroit vs. Colorado
Pick: Colorado -166
The set-up: The Colorado Rockies won Sunday's rubber match of their three-game weekend series in Atlanta. Colorado opened August by winning four of its first five but then lost 11 of ifs next 15, before taking three of its last four. Doing the math, the Rockies are 11-13 for the month and welcome the Tigers to Coors Field for a three-game IL series starting Monday, 3 1/2 games up on Milwaukee for the second wild card in the National League (Rockies are 1 1/2 behind the D'backs for the top spot). Detroit also opened August strong (won its first four) but has since lost 16 of 21 and finds itself 56-73, only four games ahead of the American League-worst Chicago White Sox (52-77).
The pitching matchup: The disappointing Jordan Zimmermann (7-11 & 6.11 ERA) takes the mound for Detroit against the surprising Antonio Senzatela (10-4 & 4.52 ERA) for Colorado. Zimmermann became the first Tiger in 82 years to give up seven runs in three straight outing, when he lost 10-2 at home against the Yankees last Wednesday. He's allowed on 21 ERs hits across just 13 2/3 innings over that span (13.83 ERA), joining Tommy Bridges and Schoolboy Rowe (both in 1935). Ironically, there is some good news here for Zimmermann and Detroit, as he owns a 6-0 (2.48) record in 10 career starts against the Rockies (teams are 7-3). Senzatela has worked primarily out of the bullpen since the end of June but started last Wednesday in KC, settling for a no-decision after yielding two runs over five innings in a 6-4 Colorado loss against the Royals. The rookie has yet to record a decision in August but has posted a 2.84 ERA this month, after struggling in June (8.10) and July (6.00).
The pick: The Tigers are a mess and so is Zimmermann (what has happened to the pitcher we saw in Washington?) and note that the Rockies are 12-7, plus-$601 on the season, in Senzatela's starts (16th-best moneyline mark among starters), including 8-2 in his home starts.
Big Al
Tampa Bay vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City -114
After a pretty successful first campaign in Kansas City in 2016 in which he posted 11 wins with a 3.68 ERA in a full season of 34 starts, RHP Ian Kennedy has regressed significantly this year. In 24 starts, the former first round pick of the Yankees is 4-9 with an ugly 5.09 ERA. Perhaps a start against the Tampa Bay Rays will help get him on track for the final month. He hasn't faced Tampa this season. However, in two starts against the Rays in 2016, Kennedy was near-perfect, allowing one run (zero earned) on four hits in 12 combined innings. The Royals went 1-1 in those two games, but Kennedy won the game that he pitched here at home. The Rays will go with rookie RH Austin Pruitt, who has a winning record on the season at 6-4. But Pruitt's also 0-1 with an ugly 7.56 ERA in his last three, while the Rays are 0-4 in Pruitt's last four starts. This has been an extremely lopsided series of late, with the Rays having gone 7-24 in the last 31 meetings. Finally, the Royals are 10-4 in Kennedy's last 14 starts overall.
Power Sports
Cleveland at New York
Pick: Cleveland -104
Considering that Corey Kluber is typically priced around a 2:1 favorite, getting him and Cleveland at even money here seems like a real bargain. Yes, he'll be pitching at Yankee Stadium, but that's never seemed to bother him before (2.25 ERA in three career starts here) and he's 4-1 w/ a 1.71 ERA in six all-time starts vs. New York. Furthermore, the Indians are coming off a historic series as they shut the Royals out in all three games despite starters logging just 19 2/3 innings. During the current four-game win streak, Cleveland has outscored its opponents 33-6.
Kluber is the best pitcher in the American League. He is #1 in both ERA (2.65) and WHIP (0.911) and just crossed 200 K's for a fourth consecutive season. Making him an even better play tonight is the fact he's off a rare loss, his first since the 4th of July. In a 12 strikeout performance against Boston, he allowed only two runs, but sadly the offense failed to show up for him. Since coming off the DL at the start of June, Kluber has allowed more than 3 ER in only one out of a possible 16 starts. Certainly, he will put his team in a good position to win tonight. The current Yankees lineup has a batting average of .167 against Kluber.
The Indians' offense is also heating up. Yesterday, they scored 12 runs - all in the first two innings. Here, they'll face Luis Severino, who is having a marvelous bounce back season after going 0-8 in 2016. But Severino isn't Kluber and the last time he pitched at home, Boston scored 10 runs on him. He did beat Cleveland earlier this month, 8-1, but for whatever reason the Tribe has been better on the road this season. They're 37-27 and Severino has a 4.14 ERA here in the Bronx.
Rob Vinciletti
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
Play: Red Sox -105
Boston head to Toronto after getting swept at home by Baltimore. Road favorites off a -140 or higher home favored loss scoring 2 or less runs are cashing 88% vs an opponent also off a home favored loss that scored 2 or less runs like Toronto.. Boston has won 6 of the last 7 here and they are 5-1 on turf averaging 6.8 runs. Pomeranz pitching for the Sox has allowed 1 run in 13 innings vs the Jays and he has a 1.76 era in his last 3 starts. Stroman for the Jays has allowed 9 runs in 11 innings in 2 starts vs Boston this year. With Toronto 4-11 at home vs let handers we will back Boston.
Brandon Lee
Indians vs. Yankees
Play: Under 7
I'll take my chances on the Yankees and Indians finishing below this low total on Monday, as we have two of the AL's best starters facing off. Cleveland sends out Corey Kluber, who is 12-4 with a 2.65 ERA and 0.911 WHIP in 22 starts. He's also 4-1 with a 1.93 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in 6 career starts against the Yankees. New York will send out Luis Severino, who is 11-5 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.104 WHIP in 25 starts and has a 1.93 ERA and 0.964 WHIP in 3 career starts against the Indians.
Jack Jones
Mariners vs. Orioles
Play: Over 10
Expect big offensive outputs tonight from both the Seattle Mariners and Baltimore Orioles to push this total OVER the 10 runs. These are two of the worst starters in baseball going at it, and I believe the runs will come early and often in this one.
Chris Tillman is 1-7 with an 8.00 ERA and 2.028 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 13.12 ERA and 2.487 WHIP in his last three. It's amazing that he even still has a spot in the rotation. Tillman is also 1-1 with a 7.43 ERA in his last three starts against the Mariners, giving up 11 earned runs in 13 1/3 innings.
Marco Gonzalez is still looking for his first win for the Mariners, going 0-1 with a 7.41 ERA and 1.791 WHIP in five starts this season. One of those starts came against Baltimore on August 16th. Gonzalez gave up 4 earned runs and 9 hits in 4 1/3 innings of a 7-6 win over the Orioles in that game.
The OVER is 7-1 in Mariners last eight games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. The OVER is 5-2-1 in Tillman's last eight starts vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings. The OVER is 5-2 in Tillman's last seven starts vs. Seattle.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Francisco +104 over SAN DIEGO
The last report on Jhoulys Chacin was that he was nursing some swelling in his pitching hand and it was unknown as to if he will make his next scheduled start Monday against the Giants. He is scheduled to start but sometimes there is a late pitching change so we are making this an “action” bet, meaning listed pitchers do not have to start. We get San Fran +104 regardless of who’s pitching, so when you make this bet, “uncheck”
Chacin must start (should come up after the initial bet as the confirmation bet) and then it becomes an “action bet”.
Even if Chacin does start, his hand was all swelled up five days ago. Even if Chacin does start, he’s walked 16 batters over his past 28 innings to go along with a 5.91 xERA. His ERA over his last three starts is much prettier at 3.68 but that’s a luck-driven ERA. Under the hood, Chacin has been horrible since the beginning of July. Another reason that he and the Padres are favored here is because Chacin has a 1.86 home ERA. While Chacin has indeed performed better at home, that shiny ERA is in line for regression because his relationship with the strike-zone is deteriorating by the start. Jhouly’s Chacin is not a 1.86 ERA pitcher. Not even close.
Meanwhile, Jeff Samardzija had another rough month on the surface in July (5.64 ERA). His August ERA thus far is better at 3.90, which has led to an overall ERA of 4.67. All told, Samardzija’s surface ERA is one of the most misleading in the game. Here's a starter with a BB/K split of 26/170 in 168 innings! Buy-low targets don't get any better than Samardzija. His skills continue to scream buy with 9.0 K’s/9, 1.2 BB’s/9 and a 43% groundball rate. His skills receive full support from his 11.6% swing and miss rate, 69% first-pitch strike rate, 31% ball % and a terrific xERA of 3.30. A 36% hit rate and 60% strand rate have teamed to torpedo his surface stats. Thus, in an evenly priced game, we can take back a small tag with the superior starter who throws strikes and who has had poor fortune while the favorite is not healthy, he can’t throw strikes and has misleading surface stats. We’re on board for that.
COLORADO -1½ +106 over Detroit
We’re going to ditch the Coors Field underdog, reverse run-line theory and switch to playing the favorite here for several reasons. First, the winner at Coors Field is almost always by two runs or more and this is a horrible matchup for Detroit. The Tigers have a dumpster-fire bullpen that will see action today because Jordan Zimmermann has about a 1% chance of performing well.
Zimmermann has a mere 16 K’s over his last 35 innings covering six starts. He has a 7.01/7.72 ERA/xERA over that stretch. Overall, Zimmermann has a vile BB/K split of 41/91 over 140 frames to go along with his 6.11/6.27 ERA/xERA split. It gets worse too. Zimmermann’s batted ball profile is also vile with 29% grounders, 25% line-drives and 46% fly-balls. That’s not the end of it either, as Zimmermann’s hard-hit ball % is 39.3% (not line-drive because a hard-hit ball could be a smashed grounder), which is the fifth highest mark in MLB among qualified starters. Jordan Zimmermann and the rest of the Tigers pitching staff is in line to get walloped here.
The Antonio Senzatela bandwagon was overflowing when the rookie was 7-2 with a 3.49 ERA at the end of May, but a few have hopped off along the way in response to a 6.92 ERA and the subsequent loss of his starting pitching role. However Senzatela is back in the rotation, where he’s had one good start against the Indians and one shaky start against the Royals. Furthermore, Senzatela had a terrific 2.45 ERA in nearly 500 minor league innings, so it will be interesting to watch if he can recapture some of what worked (e.g. 64% first-pitch strike rate) in the early months. What we know for sure is that the Rocks are a different (better) team at home and Senzatela wins games when he pitches at Coors, as his 8-2 record at home will attest to. We’re merely giving out info on Senzatela but the real wager here is all about fading Zimmermann and the Tigers ‘pen at this unforgiving park.
Kevin Rogers
Braves vs. Phillies
Play:Braves +147
The Braves haven't had much luck with the Phillies this season, losing six straight meetings with Philadelphia. Lucas Sims looks to stay hot for the Braves as the right-hander is coming off victories over the Rockies and Mariners following three consecutive losses to start his Major League career. Aaron Nola has struggled of late following 10 consecutive quality starts as the Phillies' righty allowed 12 runs in losses to the Marlins and Giants. Philadelphia rallied past Chicago on Sunday, but the Phillies are 0-5 in their last five games at home off a win. I'll back the Braves to knock off the Phillies.
John Martin
Tampa Bay at Kansas City
Play: Kansas City -107
The Kansas City Royals return home after getting swept in Cleveland over the weekend. If they want to stay alive for a wild card spot, they need to take care of business in this series against the Rays. Austin Pruitt has been rocked in his last two starts for the Rays, giving up 11 earned runs, 4 homers and 20 base runners in 10 2/3 innings. Ian Kennedy has pitched 12 shutout innings while striking out 15 in his last two starts against the Rays. The Royals are 10-4 in Kennedy's last 14 starts. Kansas City is 24-7 in its last 31 meetings with Tampa Bay.
John Ryan
Pirates vs. Cubs
Play: Cubs -157
Today, the Chicago Cubs (69-60) open a series with the Pittsburgh Pirates (63-68). The Cubs are currently leading the NL Central, and the Pirates are looking ever more desperate for a win as the season winds down to the playoffs. Mike Montgomery (4-6 3.43 ERA) will be starting for the Cubs, and Trevor Williams (5-6 4.40 ERA ) will take the mound for Pittsburgh. We run hundreds of analytical systems each day, and for this game, we have found a system taking the Cubs to win in the first game of a series after the All-Star break and have won their previous game and their starter in the current game has won both of his previous two starts. The Cubs are 17-2 in this scenario since 2014.
Bruce Marshall
Indians at Yankees
Pick: Indians
These teams might meet in the playoffs, so we could be looking at an October preview. For the Tribe and Corey Kluber, a chance to extend some stellar pitching over the weekend when the Cleveland staff spun three straight shutouts (the first time since 1956!) vs. the Royals, and Kluber off of a rare loss (vs. the Bosox).
Dave Price
Colorado Rockies -1.5 +107
The Colorado Rockies should win by multiple runs over the Detroit Tigers with ease tonight. The Tigers are dealing with a ton of injuries and suspensions right now. They are 5-16 in their last 21 games overall and have nothing to play for. Jordan Zimmerman is 0-2 with a 13.84 ERA and 2.27 WHIP in his last 3 starts, giving up exactly 7 earned runs in all 3 outings. Antonio Senzatela is 8-2 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 10 home starts for the Rockies. The Tigers are 1-9 in their last 10 road games. Detroit is 3-11 in Zimmerman's last 14 road starts. The Rockies are 6-1 in Senzatela's last 7 home starts.
Cappers Club
Giants vs. Padres
Play: Over 7½
Both starting pitchers are vey sub par, boasting ERAs into the 4s.
Padres starter Jhoulys Chacin comes in off a start that saw him really struggle with his command. That has been a career problem for him as he hasn't been able to avoid the free passes. The line is very thin here in terms of this total and any sort of command issues will really blow this total up.
The Giants Jeff Samardzija just hasn't been the same pitcher this year as in the past. Traffic on the bases has been a common theme for him and he has really been a struggle as a whole more times than not.
This total is just too low. Look for a lot of base runners both ways.
Chris Jordan
My free play on Monday night is the Under on the Miami Marlins-Washington Nationals, one day after scoring an Over in the Nationals-New York Mets early game.
Tonight, in Washington D.C., we're going to see a pitchers' duel.
Urena is the club leader with 12 wins, and rolls into this one with a 3-0 mark and 2.95 ERA in four starts in August. The right-hander's four-seam fastball has been top-noch, sitting around 95 miles per hour while he is on the bump. His WHIP is 1.22, while he has struck out 89 in 129.2 innings.
On the other hand, Scherzer returns from the disabled list after missing his turn through the rotation with left neck inflammation. The staff-ace continues a campaign that has made him the frontrunner for the National League Cy Young Award.
Take this one under as the pitchers are the stars.
4* Marlins/Nationals Under
Jeff Benton
Monday freebie is the Under at Yankee Stadium when Cleveland and New York meet for the second time this month.
It will be a pair of All-Stars handling the mound-work, as Corey Kluber and Luis Severino take to the bump, and I just cannot see either team mustering too much offensively this Monday night.
Kluber shutdown the New York attack back on August 3rd, as he worked ALL 9 innings with just 3 hits and 1 run allowed. He also struck out 11 batters in going the distance. Kuleber's ERA for the season stands at 2.65, and 4 of his last 5 starts (beginning with that Yankees effort) have landed Under the total.
Cleveland stands at 7-3-1 Under the total their last 11 on the road, and facing Severino this evening sure looks like another Under.
Severino has had one bad start since the All-Star break, as he has worked 7 of his 8 starts since the break with no more than 1 run allowed! His last start against the Tribe came on August 6th when he worked into the 7th inning and allowed just 1 run to score while fanning 9.
I see lots of goose eggs on that big scoreboard in the Bronx. Not too many crooked digits.
Indians-Yankees Under on Monday night.
4* CLEVELAND-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER