Free Picks for Monday, August 7th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
PADRES AT REDS
PLAY: REDS -126
On the surface, this looks like a good spot for San Diego. While he’s been much stronger at home overall, Jhoulys Chacin is on a roll for the Padres. Tim Adleman is on what amounts to a reverse roll for Cincinnati.
However, the key for me in this game is an angle that has been highly profitable this baseball season. I’ve mentioned this before, but sweep revenge is a good little system as it has a logical rationale as to why it should work, and in fact it usually does.
There are exceptions, of course, and we just saw one, assuming the Mets end up losing their game with the Dodgers that is in progress as I’m writing this. The Mets were swept by the Dodgers in the previous series this season between the two teams. They’re about to get swept again.
But that is clearly the exception to the rule. Teams that are swept by an opponent will mostly be able to win at least one game in the return series. That applies to this Padres-Reds series. Cincinnati was swept at Petco earlier this season by the Padres. I’m banking on them winning at least once in this set at GAB.
Note however, that I will be playing tonight’s series opener for just a half unit. As this is what amines to a mini-chase system, I don’t want to set myself up for a monster loss if things don’t go well. The fact this is a four-game series enhances that risk, so I’m starting off small. That would also seem to be a decent train of thought considering tonight’s pitching matchup. But in any case, I will be playing the Reds on Monday evening and Cincinnati is the daily free play as well.
Scott Rickenbach
Cardinals vs. Royals
Play: Royals +114
Though the Royals only got a split of their double header they scored 16 runs in the two games and have now scored 6 runs or more in 3 of their last 4 games. Although the Cardinals finally exploded for a big game at the plate in their win at Cincinnati yesterday, St Louis had previously averaged just 2.1 runs per game in their last 9 games! As you can see, the Cards had been cold at the plate and I look for those struggles to resume against the Royals Ian Kennedy. The right-hander struck out 10 in 6 shutout innings the last time he faced St Louis. Though Kennedy is off of a tough start in his most recent outing, he had produced a quality start in 5 of his 6 prior outings. In fact, in those 5 quality starts Kennedy gave up only 9 earned runs in 32 and 1/3 innings. The Royals, before losing his most recent start, were on an 8-1 run in Kennedy's starts! Look for KC to bounce right back with him on the mound tonight. Kennedy will be opposed by the Cardinals Carlos Martinez in this one. Although the St Louis right-hander has good numbers on the season, he has a 1.71 WHIP in his last 3 starts as too many walks and hits have caused him to be constantly trying to work out of jams in recent starts. The Cards are 3-8 in the 11 road starts Martinez has made this season. St Louis is only 3-8 in inter-league action this season. The Royals are 41-22 in August games the past 3 seasons combined.
Art Aronson
Cubs vs. Giants
Play: Under 8
We look for these veteran hurlers to battle into the latter frames and we expect this one to sneak UNDER the number once it’s all said and done.
Jake Arrieta: He’s 10-8 with a 3.88 ERA. Arrieta gave up two runs (just one earned) off three hits and two walks in a loss to Arizona on Wednesdsay (also striking out eight.) Over his last six starts Arrieta has posted a tiny 2.08 ERA and 31:11 K:BB spanning 39 innings of work.
Matt Moore: He’s 3-11 with a 5.80 ERA. Moore gave up four runs over five frames in a loss to Oakland on Wednesday. Moore is enduring the worst season of his career and clearly he’ll be eager to try and finish up strong.
The bottom line: This pick is based primarily on Arrieta’s recent form, which the Giants’ anemic offense could have issues with tonight.
Power Sports
Orioles vs. Angels
Pick: Angels -127
Both of these teams put up 10+ runs on Sunday. Only one of them was victorious, however. That would be Baltimore, who beat Detroit by a score of 12-3. The Angels (who scored 10 runs exactly), unfortunately gave up 11 and lost to the A's. But let's not let yesterday's or even the last two days' results fool us into thinking the O's are the better ballclub here. They're not. They'd in fact dropped the first two games of the Detroit series and now hit the road where they've gone an awful 20-33 this season while getting outscored by an average of 1.2 rpg. That record and performance are the primary contributors to a YTD run diff of -53, one of the American League's worst. As for the Angels, I still view them as a legit threat to capture that second Wild Card spot. The home team is being grossly undervalued here.
JC Ramirez leads the Angels' staff in victories w/ 12. I played on him the last time he pitched, which was last Wednesday as he tossed eight scoreless innings of three-hit ball against the Phillies. He again gets to pitch at home tonight. He's gone at least six innings in five consecutive starts and allowed 2 ER or fewer in four of those (1.31 ERA L3 starts).
Dylan Bundy goes for Baltimore. He's struggled on the road w/ a 4.80 ERA and 1.344 WHIP, mirroring his team's overall play. Here he'll have to deal with a LA team that is 31-24 at home this year. Bundy was great his last time out (I had 'em!), allowing only an unearned run in 8 IP. But that was at Camden Yards. Two starts ago, also at home, he allowed seven runs. His last road start saw him allow six runs in five innings. Also, Bundy has not delivered B2B quality starts since late May.
Jim Feist
Cardinals at Royals
Pick: Under
St. Louis is on a 17-6-4 run under the total with better pitching than offense. Carlos Martinez (3.59 ERA) takes the mound throwing well, but has a losing record. St. Louis is 37-16-6 under the total against the AL Central division. Kansas City has a hot and cold offense, 7-1 under against losing teams. The Under is 12-3-1 when starter Ian Kennedy gets 5 days of rest. And the Under is 10-2-5 in the last 17 meetings.
Matt Fargo
San Diego at Cincinnati
Play: San Diego +112
The Padres lost on Sunday in extra innings to drop their series with the Pirates but they have still been on a solid run, going 9-7 over their last 16 games. San Diego is the worst hitting team in baseball while scoring a league low 420 runs (3.8 rpg) but the offense has been significantly better during this stretch, averaging 4.7 rpg. Going back, the Padres are 5-2 in their last seven games following a loss. The Reds lost two of three games against the Cardinals including a 13-4 loss on Sunday, allowing 13 unanswered runs after jumping out to a 3-0 lead. It has been an awful run for the Reds as they have lost 36 of their last 52 games including a 3-11 record in their last 14 games at home. One look at Jhoulys Chacin's numbers and it shows he is having a decent yet unspectacular season with a 3.99 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. His statline is severely skewed however and it is the result of only three bad starts. In April and May, he put up bad games against the Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Mets that resulted in an ugly 20.70 ERA and 2.80 WHIP covering just 10 innings. In his other 19 starts, he has a 2.71 ERA and 1.13 WHIP which is a better indication of the season he is having. In those 19 starts, he has allowed three runs or less in all 19 games with 13 of those resulting in quality starts. The Reds counter with Tim Adleman who has been on a horrible run. He had a 4.22 ERA through June 16 but has posted a 7.30 ERA over his last eight starts with only one of those resulted in a quality performance. The Reds have lost eight of his 10 starts.
Andrew Gold
Brewers vs. Twins
Play: Twins -108
Not many times you can get the Twins ace in Santana at home at this price. I will gladly back him as he is 12-7 on the year with a good 3.28 ERA. The problem is that he doesn't always get great run support, but I think he will tonight as Suter finally came back down to earth his last start against the Cardinals getting rocked. The Brewers were very lucky over the weekend to win two of their 3 games despite scoring a total of only 6 runs in those three games.
Doc's Sports
Orioles vs. Angels
Play:Orioles +113
The Baltimore Orioles head to Angel Stadium on Monday, August 7, 2017 to take on the Los Angeles Angels. The expected starting pitchers are Dylan Bundy for the Orioles and J.C. Ramirez for the Angels.
The odds for this matchup have Baltimore at +125 and Los Angeles at -145. The Orioles have a 56-51-3 over/under mark and a 53-57-0 run line record. The Angels are 62-48-0 against the run line and have a 52-54-4 over/under record.
Valuable Baltimore Orioles Betting Trends
The Baltimore Orioles are 56-51-3 against the over/under
The Baltimore Orioles are 53-57-0 against the run line
Important Los Angeles Angels Betting Trends
The Los Angeles Angels are 52-54-4 against the over/under
The Los Angeles Angels are 62-48-0 against the run line
Useful Pitching Statistics
The Orioles have a 54-56 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Dylan Bundy has a 10-8 record with an earned run average of 4.24 and a WHIP of 1.22. He has 97 strikeouts over his 127.1 innings pitched and he's given up 115 hits. He allows 8.1 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.84. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.92 and they have given up 386 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .254 against the bullpen and they've struck out 345 hitters and walked 137 batters. As a team, Baltimore allows 9.6 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.6 batters per nine innings. They are 29th in the league in team earned run average at 4.95. The Orioles pitchers collectively have given up 1046 base hits and 538 earned runs. They have allowed 162 home runs this season, ranking them 3rd in the league. Baltimore as a pitching staff has walked 389 batters and struck out 830. They have walked 3.6 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.6 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.47 and their FIP as a unit is 4.92.
Hitting Statistics
As a team Baltimore is hitting .259, good for 8th in the league. The Orioles hold a .434 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .315, which is good for 22nd in baseball. They rank 8th in MLB with 9.0 hits per game. Adam Jones is hitting .271 with an on-base percentage of .311. He has 115 hits this season in 425 at bats with 53 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .454 and an OPS+ of 104. Jonathan Schoop is hitting .305 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .356. He has totaled 124 hits and he has driven in 80 men in 407 at bats. His OPS+ is 141 while his slugging percentage is at .553. The Orioles have 987 hits, including 188 doubles and 155 home runs. Baltimore has walked 285 times so far this season and they have struck out 941 times as a unit. They have left 717 men on base and have a team OPS of .749. They score 4.64 runs per contest and have scored a total of 510 runs this year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
Los Angeles has a 55-56 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 4.03, J.C. Ramirez has a 10-9 record and a 1.32 WHIP. He has 99 strikeouts over the 129.2 innings he's pitched. He's also given up 129 hits. He allows 9 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 4.61. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.96 and they have given up 318 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .235 against the Angels bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 368 batters and walked 114 opposing hitters. As a team, Los Angeles allows 8.5 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.2 batters per nine innings. They are 11th in the league in team earned run average at 4.16. The Angels pitchers as a team have surrendered 928 base knocks and 456 earned runs this season. They have given up 150 home runs this year, which ranks 7th in Major League Baseball. Los Angeles as a staff has walked 339 hitters and struck out 895 batters. They give up a walk 3.1 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.2 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.28 while their FIP as a staff is 4.42.
Hitting Statistics
As a team, they are batting .245, good for 26th in the league. The Angels hold a .390 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .314, which is good for 23rd in baseball. They rank 26th in MLB with 8.2 hits per contest. Mike Trout comes into this matchup batting .345 with an OBP of .462. He has 81 hits this year along with 50 RBI in 235 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .698 with an OPS+ of 211. Andrelton Simmons is hitting .301 this season and he has an OBP of .353. He has collected 123 hits in 409 at bats while driving in 49 runs. He has an OPS+ of 119 and a slugging percentage of .455. The Angels as a unit have 912 base hits, including 165 doubles and 118 homers. Los Angeles has walked 336 times this year and they have struck out on 813 occasions. They have had 710 men left on base and have an OPS of .704. They have scored 4.23 runs per game and totaled 469 runs this season.
John Martin
Marlins vs. Nationals
Play: Nationals -1½
Taking the Nationals on the -135 run line today certainly beats laying -300 with them. That's a nice discount as the Nationals shouldn't have a problem winning by two runs or more over the Marlins. Max Scherzer faced Chris O'Grady just six days ago. Scherzer left that game with a 6-0 lead after the first inning with neck stiffness, and the Nationals proceeded to blow that lead and lose 7-6. O'Grady gave up 6 earned runs in 3 innings and is now 2-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in five starts this year. He's in over his head against Scherzer, who is 12-5 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in 22 starts. He is 6-3 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 12 previous starts against Miami. The Nationals are 27-11 in Scherzer's last 38 starts and 6-1 in his last seven home starts. The Marlins are 15-36 in the last 51 meetings in Washington.
Teddy Davis
Padres vs. Reds
Play: Reds -109
The Reds are worth a look here tonight going up against the Padres. San Diego is sending Chacin to the mound who is in good form but the key for him is that he has by far had his best stuff at home. Now he is on the road where he owns a 7.53 ERA. I think the Reds get the job done tonight.
Jimmy Boyd
Cardinals vs. Royals
Play: Royals +117
I like the value here with Kansas City as a short home dog in Monday's series opener against NL rival St Louis. The Cardinals are getting way to much respect here on the road. The reason they are is becuase they send out Carlos Martinez. He's a big name, but has struggled this season. He's 2-6 in 11 road starts and has a 5.29 ERA and 1.706 WHIP in his last 3 outings. I know Royals starter Ian Kennedy doesn't have great numbers, but he's pitched a lot better than his 4-7 record would lead on.
Cardinals are 2-8 in Martinez's last 0 road starts as a favorite of -110 or more. It's also worth noting both offenses are coming off a big showing Sunday. However, St Louis is just 9-17 in their last 26 after scoring 10 or more while the Royals are 15-5 in their last 20 after scoring at least 9 runs. Royals are also 32-19 in their last 51 as a dog of +100 to +150.
Jack Jones
Orioles vs. Angels
Play: Angels -122
The Los Angeles Angels will be highly motivated for a win Monday after blowing a 10-5 lead to the A's on Sunday. They take on a Baltimore Orioles team that is coming off a nice homestand, but they are just 20-33 on the road this season.
JC Ramirez is having a solid season overall at 8-9 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.299 WHIP in 21 starts this season. He has been very good of late, going 2-1 with a 1.31 ERA in his last three starts while allowing just 3 earned runs in 20 2/3 innings to the Red Sox, Indians and Phillies.
Dylan Bundy got off to a great start this season but has cooled of late. He is now 10-8 with a 4.24 ERA in 21 starts this season, including 4-4 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.344 WHIP in nine road starts.
The Orioles are 11-26 in their last 37 road games, including 6-20 in their last 26 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Angels are 27-13 in their last 40 home games vs. a team with a losing record, including 5-1 in Ramirez's last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Larry Wallace
Orioles vs. Angels
Play: Angels -122
I like the Angels in this match-up against Baltimore. Ramirez this year is 10-9 with a 4.03 ERA. Ramirez is coming off a great outing against the Phillies. Also, Ramirez is coming off 2 straight wins while pitching at home. The Angels are 5-1 in their last 6 games with Ramirez pitching against a team with a losing record.
Mike Lundin
Milwaukee at Minnesota
Play: Milwaukee +101
The Milwaukee Brewers enter the week just a half-game back of the Cubs who are top of the NL Central division. They had won three straight prior to a 2-1 loss at Tampa Bay on Sunday, and I think they'll start the new week with a victory.
The Twins hand the ball to Ervin Santana (12-7, 3.28 ERA). He was excellent his last start when he fanned nine and allowed just a pair of runs in a complete game at San Diego. Santana might be in for a rough outing here though as he's 0-2 with a 7.41 ERA in three career starts against the Brew Crew, and he's been far better on the road (2.52 ERA) than at home (4.09 ERA) this season.
Brent Suter (2-2, 3.04 ERA) will toe the rubber for Milwaukee. He is 2-1 with a 2.55 ERA in six starts since filling in for the injured Chase Anderson in the rotation. Suter was knocked around for five runs on eight hits in 5 1/3 innings of a 5-4 home loss to St. Louis his last time out after a pair of homers from Yadier Molina. He will however not have to deal with Molina this time around, and I think he'll do well in his first start against Minnesota.