Brandon Lee
Tigers vs. Pirates
Play: Under 9
If you look at the overall numbers of today's two starters, you would probably lean towards the OVER. However, I like what I have seen from today's two starters. Detroit will give the ball to Jordan Zimmermann, who is coming off arguably his best start of the season, allowing just 6 hits and no walks over 7 shutout innings. Pittsburgh will send out Trevor Williams, who has allowed 2 runs or less in 4 straight home starts. You also have to factor in that PNC Park is a pitchers park and with mild conditions expected, the ball doesn't figure to be flying out of the park in this one.
Mike Anthony
Milwaukee vs. Minnesota
Play: Milwaukee -101
The Brewers are getting plus money at Minnesota on Monday night and trotting out Brent Suter, who sports a 2.92 road ERA. The Twins have only won one of Ervin Santana's last seven home starts. Only two teams in MLB have fewer home wins than Minnesota.
SPORTS WAGERS
Milwaukee +102 over MINNESOTA
Minnesota does nothing well except play great outfield defense. They're simply playing over their heads. No team is outplaying their third-order winning percentage by more. It's possible to squint and see them sustaining that but not likely. When the Twinkies are favored, they are fade material and we’ll gladly step in against them here.
Ervin Santana boasts a 3.28 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through 22 starts in 2017. However, after 13 starts, he had a 2.20 ERA and a 0.89 ERA so things have been heading south and they are not about to stop. You see, Santana's actually posting some of the worst skills of his career. Pay attention to the near two-run gap between xERA (5.06) and ERA. Santana's benefited from an unsustainable low hit rate of 23% and high strand rate of 80%. Santana's posting fewer Ks than ever before and it corresponds with a drop in his swing and miss rate. He's been unable to sustain 2016's control improvement and his underlying first-pitch strike rate and Ball% remain mediocre. Santana's current pace simply isn't sustainable. With fewer strikeouts, more walks, and an insane amount of luck, it's time to cash out and sell Santana, as things will get much worse from here.
Minnesota ranks 26th out of 30 teams in OPS against lefties and will face one here in Brent Suter. Suter looked like an upper-tier starter in July, at least on the surface (1.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP). His underlying skills were intriguing too: 7.5 K’s/9, 1.5 BB’s/9 and 47% grounders. With soft-tossing stuff and elite first-pitch strike ability (71%), Suter is looking like a lefty version of Josh Tomlin. That’s good enough for us to get behind in this spot as Milwaukee is simply superior in every offensive category and every pitching category too.
CINCINNATI -1½ +177 over San Diego
If you watched or bet the Reds over the weekend against the Cardinals, it’s real difficult to come back on them here. At the same time, if you have watched the Padres lately, they’ve been extremely tough with nine wins in their past 16 games, which included giving the Pirates much more than they bargained for over the entire weekend series. The Padres lost two of three in Pittsburgh but they scored 15 runs against a tough staff in a tough park and they led in all three games at some point. Recency bias is in play here, as San Diego has more public appeal right now, which is our prompt to step in.
Jhoulys Chacin does not match up well against the Reds' above-average offense (.327 OBA-seventh) vs. RHP. Even though his groundball profile (52%) could help at Great American Ball Park, opposing offenses have hit a number of line drives (25% line-drive %) and home runs (1.7 HR/9 and 24% hr/f) off of Chacin in his away (7.35 ERA) starts. LHB have hit well (.828 OPS) with harder contact (35%) against him too. Chacin has been batting practice on the road and this is about the worst possible park for him to succeed in.
Tim Adleman is not as bad as his 5.42 ERA suggests. For one, he registers more strikeouts (9.3 K’s/9) in his home starts. Secondly, his xERA of 4.86 isn’t even as bad as it looks because xERA does not take park factors into consideration. Adleman’s weak stats on paper does not show that there are some life to his skills that are backed by a strong 12.3% swing and miss rate and decent 62% first-pitch strike rate. A low 69% strand rate and high 17% hr/f have wreaked havoc on his actual ERA but at the end of the day, we’re getting a bargain price on the better offense and better starter. There's some real value here on the Reds and we’re on it. Play Cinci -110 if you prefer but we like to go for the kill and will therefore spot the runs with a big take-back.
Will Rogers
San Diego vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati -114
The set-up: Cincy's Joey Votto needs just one more HR to reach 30 in a season for the first time since his 2010 MVP campaign but so many of his dingers have gone to waste on this last-place club. The Reds have lost 17 of 23 since the All-Star break and get set to open a four-game series with the visiting San Diego Padres on Monday, as the lone team in the NL Central to have lost touch with the other four teams. The Red are 45-66, 13 1/2 games out of first, while their four division rivals are all with 4 1/2 games of each other. The Padres have the misfortune of playing in the NL West, where the Dodgers own MLB's best record at 79-32. The Padres are 49-61, 4 1/2 games better than the Reds, but a whopping 29 1/2 games back of the Dodgers! San Diego swept three from Cincinnati at home by a combined score of 19-7 earlier this year and would need just one victory in this four-game set to clinch the season series for the fourth consecutive campaign.
The pitching matchup: Jhoulys Chacin (11-7 & 3.99 ERA) will take the ball for San Diego, opposed by Tim Adleman (5-9 & 5.42 ERA) of Cincinnati. Chacin's 11 victories on a 49-win team are impressive and he comes into this contest 7-2 with a 2.30 ERA over his last 10 starts, including a win and seven solid innings pitched against the Reds at home June 14. That gives him a 2-2 record (3.06 ERA) in five career starts vs. the Reds (teams are 2-3). In a stark contrast to Chacin as of late, Adleman has only one quality start in his last eight appearances and finished July at 0-5 with a 7.34 ERA in six starts (Reds were 1-5). He has never faced San Diego.
The pick: Sure, Chacin is the pitching much better right now but let's not ignore the fact that he owns a 7.35 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 10 road starts in 2017. Meanwhile, Adleman is a respectable 7-5 in his career at home (Reds are 9-8 in his 17 home starts since 2016). I'll back the Reds in this one.
Larry Ness
Orioles vs. Angels
Pick: Angels -122
The Baltimore Orioles completed a 5-2 homestand with a pair of victories but now begin a 10-game West Coast trip with the first of three contests against the Los Angeles Angels on Monday night. The Orioles fast start (22-10 to open the season) didn't last long, as before winning their final two games before the All Star break, the Orioles were just 40-46, meaning they had lost 36 of their previous 54 games (.333). Baltimore returned from the break and still sat six games under .500 (48-54) in games played through July 28 but before going 5-2 on its just completed homestand, Baltimore had won its last two games at Texas, giving them seven wins in the team's last nine games. The Orioles are unlikely to win the AL East (sit 7 1/2 games back in fourth place) but they are only 2 1/2 games behind Kansas City for the second wild card in the American League.
Los Angeles fell three games behind the Royals in that wild card chase after squandering a five-run lead and dropping an 11-10 decision to Oakland on Sunday. The Angels wrap up a nine-game homestand (currently 4-2) with the Orioles Monday-Wednesday. Mike Trout turns 26 today and is riding a nine-game hitting streak (he has three HRs and six RBI in his past five games). He's batting .343 with 22 HRs and 51 RBI in 67 games.
Dylan Bundy (10-8, 4.24 ERA) will start for Baltimore and JC Ramirez (10-9, 4.03 ERA) for LA. Bundy would tie a career-high with an 11th win this season. He comes off allowing just one unearned run and three hits in eight innings of a 7-2 win over Kansas City last Tuesday. That said, let's not ignore that he had surrendered at least five runs in five of his previous seven starts. Bundy will be making his first-ever start against Los Angeles, after yielding four runs over 1.1 innings of relief in his only career appearance versus the Angels.
Ramirez is also making his first-ever start against the Orioles, but has faced Baltimore twice in relief during his career, allowing one run and three hits over 1.2 innings. Like Bundy, he is coming off an excellent start, as he scattered six hits over eight scoreless innings in a 7-0 triumph over Philadelphia last Wednesday. He has won two straight at home but still owns just a 3-5 record and 4.50 ERA in 12 appearances (11 starts) at Angel Stadium this season.
The pitching matchup seems like a 'wash,' so I'll bet on "the Birthday Boy" and play the Angels.
Marc Lawrence
Detroit vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh -154
Edges - Tigers: Zimmerman 3-0 with 5.95 ERA and 1.66 ERA away this season; and 2-11 team starts at night this season… With the Pirates 3-1 the last four home in Game One of a series, we recommend a 1* play on Pittsburgh.
Gary Bart
Orioles vs. Angels
Play: Angels -1.5
This is a big series for both teams. Both are in contention for a Wild Card spot despite being below 500 on the season. The Angels blew a big lead at home against the A's yesterday. Baltimore are playing great baseball. They are 7-2 in their last nine games.
Bob Balfe
Angels -125
This should be a pretty good game between two starters with almost identical numbers this year. I give the edge to the Angels due to Baltimore’s struggles on the road. The Orioles bullpen is a little shaky away from home as this team gives up a lot of runs. The Angels are looking to avoid a 3 game home losing streak and should do so with recent hot hand of JC Ramirez on the mound.
Bruce Marshall
Orioles at Angels
Pick: Over
The Angels bullpen remains shell-shocked after blowing a big lead on Sunday vs. the A's, and the big bats of the Orioles could do more damage tonight vs. the relievers after JC Ramirez leaves the game. Meanwhile the Halos ought to have some success vs. struggling Birds starter Dylan Bundy and his ERA near 6.
TJ Pemberton
Orioles vs. Angels
Play: Angels -125
The Angels have lost two straight heading into this series but we will back them on Monday night. The Angels are 6-4 over their last ten games and are a much better home team than the Orioles are on the road. J.C. Ramirez will take his spot on the hill for the Angels. Ramirez is 10-9 on the season with 129.2 innings pitched. Ramirez carries a 4.03 REA with 99 strikeouts and 42 walks. Ramirez pitched 8 innings in his last start allowing no earned runs on six hits. The Angels have won four of their last five games against a team from the AL East. The Los Angeles Angels remain at home after host Oakland to welcome in Baltimore. The Angels are 55-56 on the season and 3rd in the AL West 15.5 games behind Houston in the division. LA 6-4 over their last ten games and are 31-24 on their home field. The Angels average just 4.2 runs per game which ranks 26th in the MLB.
Frank Sawyer
Brewers vs. Twins
Play: Under 9
Minnesota (53-56) has won two of their last three games with their 6-5 with over the Rangers. The Under is then 19-6-1 in the Twins’ last 26 games after a victory. The Under is also 14-6-1 in Minnesota’s last 21 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Milwaukee (59-54) looks to bounce-back from a 2-1 loss to the Rays in Tampa Bay yesterday. The Under is then 5-0-1 in the Brewers’ last 6 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last contest. Milwaukee has also played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Take the Under while listing both starting pitchers.
Dave Price
Brewers vs. Twins
Play: Twins -109
Ervin Santana continues to lack the respect he deserves from the books. He is 12-7 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 22 starts and has shown no sign of slowing down. He just tossed a complete game in his last start and now he's ready to take down the slumping Brewers, who have scored a total of just 20 runs in their last 9 games overall for an average of 2.2 RPG. Brent Suter has put up good numbers in limited action this season, but that has him overvalued. The Brewers are 1-5 in Suter's last 6 road starts and 1-6 in his last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Brewers are 34-78 in their last 112 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Twins are 21-9 in their last 30 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Jack Brayman
My free winner for tonight is on the San Diego Padres over the Cincinnati Reds, as I like Jhoulys Chacin over Tim Adleman.
The Padres started off good against the Pittsburgh Pirates yesterday, but fell short in their rally. Tonight I like them against a Cincinnati team that was battered by the St. Louis Cardinals yesterday.
Rumored to be a trade candidate before last week's deadline, Chacin made his first start after the deadline versus the Twins, and looked fantastic. He shut out Minnesota across seven, three-hit innings. Since registering a 5.77 ERA in his first 11 starts, the right-hander has a 2.49 ERA in his past 11 outings.
He will outshine Adleman, who was pulled from the rotation following his July 29 start after going 0-5 with a 7.34 ERA in the month. He will struggle in this one.
5* PADRES
Jeff Benton
No doubt the Cubs have cooled off a little, losers of 4 of their last 5, but their numbers against the Giants suggest laying the run-and-a-half over San Francisco tonight at AT&T Park.
Chicago has won 3 of 4 this season off of San Fran, and have also claimed 7 of the last 9 - postseason included - off of the Giants.
San Francisco has shown a little life of late with 4 wins over their last 6 games, but not sure I trust Matt Moore to keep the winning going.
Moore last won on June 20th, and is 0-4 over his last 7 starts!
Jake Arrieta is off a hard-luck loss to Arizona, as he allowed just 2 runs - 1 of them earned - in a 3-0 setback his last time out. Since the break, Jake has worked 26-plus innings with 6 earned runs allowed.
Arrieta keeps the bats at bay by the bay, and the Cubs get to Moore early in a 3 runs or better win.
3* CUBS -1.5
Brad Wilton
Monday freebie is the Over in the Tigers-Pirates meeting at PNC Park.
First interleague showdown between the teams this season, and it should be pointed out that 7 straight meetings between these teams dating back to 2015 have ALL played Over the total.
This one will head Over the total as well with Jordan Zimmerman and Trevor Williams doing the mound work.
Both pitchers sport ERA's of 4 of higher over their last 3 starts.
Zimmerman has seen 2 of his last 3 starts land Over the total, and the Over is 13-7-1 for the year when he starts.
Williams has been on the hill for more Unders than Overs, but I get the feeling that tonight is a hitter's night in the Steel City.
Tigers and Pirates to make their way Over the total tonight.
2* DETROIT-PITTSBURGH OVER