Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Monday, August 8th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Rob Vinciletti
Giants vs. Marlins
Play:Marlins -144
Miami has won the last 4 here vs SF and the Giants have lost 11 of the last 14 on the road. Home favorites off a road dog win by 2+ runs scoring 10= runs like the Marlins have won over 85% the last 13 seasons if the total was 10 or higher last pout and the opponent is off a road loss. Miami has J. Fernandez on the mound and they are 9-3 behind him here at home as he sports a solid 2.11 home Era. Cueto fro SF has been solid but did allow 5 runs in 5 innings in his last start here. Look for the Marlins to take the opener.
Scott Spreitzer
Tigers vs. Mariners
Play: Tigers -101
Hisashi Iwakuma is 12-7 with a 3.99 ERA and has been effective against most teams, but Detroit is not one of them. The Tigers scored five runs with 11 hits in 4 2/3 innings earlier this season against him and last year Iwakuma gave up seven runs and 14 hits in 12 innings against Detroit. Six players on the Tigers roster have at least a .375 batting average against the right-hander. Michael Fulmer continues his terrific rookie season and the Tigers have won his last seven starts, including a 2-1 win over the White Sox on Wednesday when he allowed just one run and five hits in 6 2/3 innings. Fulmer faced the Mariners once this season and gave up a run and three hits in 4 1/3 innings. Detroit lost to the Mets yesterday but the Tigers still have won 10 of their last 12 games and are just two games behind first-place Cleveland in AL Central.
Marc Lawrence
Rangers vs. Rockies
Play: Rangers -115
Edges - Rangers: Cole Hamels 1.90 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP away this season; and 12-5 last 17 away team starts during August. Rockies: Tyler Anderson 1-3 as a dog this season. With Hamels 3-1 in his last 4 team starts in this park, we recommend a 1* play on Texas.
Mike Lundin
Rangers vs. Rockies
Play: Rangers -115
The Texas Rangers and the Colorado Rockies will do battle in the opener of a four-game home-and-home series Monday night. The AL West-leading Rangers have won seven of their last 10, and I like them to keep that momentum going here in the Rocky Mountains.
Cole Hamels (12-3, 2.89 ERA) takes the ball for Texas. He's 4-4 lifetime with a 3.21 ERA against the Rockies, but he has their current members limited to a combined .184 batting average over 98 at bats. We can also note that Colorado is 1-7 in its last eight interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Colorado turns to another left-hander in Tyler Anderson (4-3, 3.25). The 26 year old rookie has logged three straight quality starts (against Dodgers, Mets and Braves), but the Rangers' bats he'll see tonight will be something else as Texas is batting a major leagues-best .281 against southpaws this season and 7-3 in its last 10 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.
The Rangers are 16-3 in Hamels' last 19 starts vs. a team with a losing record, and I think we're getting a great price on the better team with their ace on the mound tonight.
Bob Harvey
Giants vs. Marlins
Play: Under 6½
Runs figure to be at a premium tonight when the San Francisco Giants and Florida Marlins open a three-game set in South Beach. First pitch arrives at 7:10 PM ET at Marlins Park where the Fish and Jose Fernandez are moneyline favorites over Johnny Cueto and Bay Area bunch. The UNDER is 6.5.
The Giants (63-48, 31-27 road) are just 6-15 since the All-Star break and have seen their lead over the Dodgers shrink to just one-game. The Marlins (59-52, 29-24 home) took two out of three in Colorado over the weekend, giving them a one-game lead over St. Louis in the race for the NL's second wild-card spot.
Cueto (13-3, 2.73 ERA) is 8-1 with a 2.82 ERA in 12 road outings but has allowed at least four runs in four of his last seven outings. The two-time All Star allowed five runs over five frames in a setback versus the Marlins last season, falling to 4-2 with a 4.18 ERA in eight career starts against them. San Francisco has lost three of Cueto's last four starts after winning 16 of his first 18.
Fernandez (12-6, 2.87 ERA) surrendered three runs in six innings during Tuesday's loss to the Cubs, marking only the second time he’s dropped consecutive starts in the same season. He’s been as good as gold at home posting an out of this world 26-2 record and 1.62 ERA in 38 career starts at home. He’s 1-1 lifetime with a 5.25 ERA in two turns vs. the Giants.
Cueto and Fernandez have combined to hold the opposition to two or fewer runs in 28 of their 43 starts this season.
The Giants and Marlins have squared off 13 times since the stadium opened in 2012, and 10 of the contests have been decided by two runs or fewer.
Jim Feist
Rays at Blue Jays
Pick: Under
Toronto has closed the gap in the AL East to just one game behind the Baltimore Orioles. This despite losing two straight games. The Jays have one of the top pitching staffs in baseball, ranking 1st in quality starts, 4th in both WHIP and BAA and 6th in BAA (3.71). The seven runs scored against them on Sunday was the most a team has scored against the Blue Jays in their previous six games. R.A. Dickey starts today. The 41-year knuckleballer is 8-12 with a 4.49 ERA. Dickey had his best start since July 10th last time out, holding the Astros to just one run over seven innings. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is already looking forward to their vacation time. The Rays are 18 back of the Orioles and out of any playoff contention. The Rays offense is horrible, ranking 26th in runs, 29th in batting average and 26th in On Base percentage. Jake Odorizzi is 6-5 with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. With numbers like that you would think that Odorizzi would have a lot more wins, but you can blame that on the anemic Rays offense. Odorizzi has put together three straight scoreless outings, going at least six innings in each. Odorizzi should keep the Rays close in this one, however, with their poor offense I don't see much scoring by either side.
Rocketman
Texas @ Colorado
Play: Texas -109
The Texas Rangers travel to Colorado to take on the Rockies on Monday night. Texas is 65-47 SU overall this year while Colorado comes in with a 55-56 SU overall record on the season. Cole Hamels is 12-3 with a 2.89 ERA overall this year, 8-2 with a 1.90 ERA on the road this season and 2-1 with a 2.21 ERA his last 3 starts. Hamels has a 3.53 ERA in his 12 starts vs Colorado in his career. Texas is allowing only 3.4 runs per game their past 7 games overall and 3.8 runs per game in interleague play this season. Colorado is allowing 6.4 runs per game at home this year and 6.4 runs per game in interleague play this season. Texas is 38-26 this year after a win. We'll recommend a small play on Texas tonight!
Wunderdog
San Francisco @ Miami
Pick: Miami -140
San Francisco is 3,000 miles from home, its seventh straight road game of a long trip. It hasn't been a good second half. San Francisco fell to 6-15 since the All-Star break following Sunday's 1-0 loss in Washington. The Giants are on a 3-11 run on the road, plus 4-13 against a right-handed starter. San Francisco ace Johnny Cueto has a 4.18 ERA in eight career starts against Miami. Miami just took two of three in Colorado over the weekend and have a one-game edge over St. Louis in the race for the NL's second wild-card spot. The Marlins are 16-5 against the NL West. Miami has an ace of its own in Jose Fernandez (12-6, 2.87 ERA), who is 26-2 with a 1.62 ERA in 38 career starts at home. The Marlins are a sizzling 30-4 in his last 34 home starts, so back home field.
Larry Ness
Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins
Pick: Houston Astros
The Houston Astros came out of nowhere to make the playoffs in 2015. They won a one-game wild card playoff over the Yankees but then fell short against the eventual World Series winning Royals in an ALDS matchup. However, the Astros have not been able to build on last year’s success, as at 57-54, Houston finds itself in the third place in the AL West (7 1/2 games back of the Rangers) plus four games out of the final wild card spot. As for the Twins they enter on an 8-3 run but the bottom line is, Minnesota still owns the AL’s worst record at 45-66.
The Twins fired their GM a while back and the team’s 11-11 record since the All Star break is an indication the team is playing “loose and free.” However, Minnesota hosts a Houston team which knows time is running out on its playoff hopes and this figures to be a tough series for the Twins. Tonight’s game is not made easier by the fact that Tyler Duffey (6-8, 6.21 ERA) gets the start for the Twins. He’s on the verge of losing his spot in the rotation and with good reason. While the Twins have been competitive since the break, Duffey hasn’t made it easy on his teammates in that span when taking the mound. He’s lasted just 16 innings in four post-All Star starts, allowing 20 ERs on 31 hits for an abysmal 11.25 ERA. Somehow, the Twins have gone 2-2.
In contrast, Houston’s McHugh enters having allowed three ERs or less in EIGHT of his last nine starts. Let me also note that he has never lost to Minnesota in his brief career, going 3-0 with a 3.04 ERA in four career starts against the Twins (team is 4-0). The Astros need to do well here in Minnesota in this four-game series and McHugh over the struggling Duffey makes for an easy choice.
Don Best Consensus
Brewers TT Over 4.5
The Over is 9-4-1 in MIL last 14 Mon. games. The Brewers are facing Whalen, who makes his 2nd MLB start. He gave up 4 ER over 5 innings his first time out. Some of the Brewers younger players are getting settled in, with Arcia and Broxton having a great hitting series against the Diamondbacks.
Chase Diamond
Houston at Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota
This game has the 57-54 Astros playing the 45-66 Twins. Big emotional series loss to their division rival Rangers yesterday an it was in extra innings after fighting back to tie the game. Now they have to get up to play the lowly Twins. Astros have lost 5 of their last 6 games and I think the Twins will be way more up for this game and I love the plus money here Tyler Duffy struggled in his return to being a starting pitcher look for his and his team to be super motivated tonight and get us a plus money win.
Brandon Lee
Tigers vs. Mariners
Play: Under 7½
The books have set the total too high for tonight's series opener between the Tigers and Mariners. Detroit will send out Michael Fulmer, who is enjoying an amazing rookie season. Fulmer is 9-2 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in 17 starts. Seattle counters with Hisashi Iwaukma, who has won 12 games in 22 starts and owns a strong 3.86 ERA and 1.113 WHIP in 10 home starts. He's also coming off a dominant outing at home against the Red Sox, where he gave up just 5 hits and no walks over 7 1/3 scoreless innings. UNDER is 8-0-1 in the Tigers last 9 following a loss and 8-2-1 in their last 11 road games. UNDER is also 8-2 in the Mariners last 10 against the AL Central and 8-3 in their last 11 against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Jack Jones
Detroit Tigers +111
I like the value we are getting with the Detroit Tigers as road underdogs to the Seattle Mariners in Game 1 of this series Monday night. The Tigers are playing their best baseball of the season right now having gone 10-2 in their last 12 games overall.
Detroit certainly has the edge on the mound tonight behind Michael Fulmer, who is 9-2 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in 17 starts this season. Fulmer faced the Mariners on June 22, giving up just one earned run over 4 1/3 innings of a 5-1 victory.
Hisashi Iwakuma is past his prime and sports a 3.99 ERA over 22 starts this season. He has never fared well against the Tigers, going 1-2 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.364 WHIP in six career starts against them. Iwakuma allowed 5 earned runs, 3 homers and 14 base runners over 4 2/3 innings of a 1-5 loss to the Tigers on June 22 opposite Fulmer.
Fulmer is a sensational 9-1 (+10.1 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season. Fulmer is 11-1 (+10.7 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season. Fulmer is 11-0 (+12.7 Units) against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season.
Jimmy Boyd
Rangers vs. Rockies
Play: Under 10½
Typically I don't want anything to do with the UNDER in Coors Field, but this is a rare situation where the total is simply too high to pass up. We have two starters facing off that are more than capable of keeping this a much lower scoring game than the oddsmakers expect.
Texas will send out Cole Hamels, who is 12-3 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.254 WHIP in 22 starts. He's been at his best on the road, where he's 8-2 with a 1.90 ERA and 1.103 WHIP in 12 starts. Hamels struggled in his first outing at Colorado way back in 2009, but has been dominant at Coors Field since. In his 4 starts since his debut here, he's allowed just 7 runs in 28 1/3 innings over 4 starts. Allowing 3 earned runs or less in each outing.
Colorado counters with Tyler Anderson, who has pitched effectively in his 10 starts this season, posting a 3.25 ERA and 1.262 WHIP. That's even more impressive when you consider 7 of his 10 starts have come at Coors Field. He'll have a slight advantage here with this being the first time he's faced Texas, plus the Rangers are struggling a bit here at the plate. Texas is averaging just 3.0 runs/game and hitting a mere .253 as a team over their last 7 games.
UNDER is 7-1-2 in the Rangers last 10 interleague games, 12-3-1 in their last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record and 15-5 in their last 20 when they come in with a bullpen WHIP of 1.250 or less in their last 15 games. UNDER is also 5-0-1 in the Rockies last 6 during Game 1 of a series, 5-1-1 in their last 7 interleague games and 19-9 in their last 28 games in the 2nd half of the season against a team that averages 7 or more strikeouts/game.