Dave Price
Colorado Rockies +107
The Colorado Rockies have been consistently underrated this season as they've been a great bet for most the year. They are showing good value again here at home tonight as underdogs. They are scoring 6.3 runs per game and hitting .304 at home this year. Tyler Anderson has been arguably their best starter, going 4-3 with a 3.25 ERA in 10 starts. He even sports a 3.32 ERA in 7 starts at hitter-friendly Coors Field, which is getting it done. He's 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA in his last 3 starts as well. Texas is 13-31 (-20.0 Units) against the money line with a tired bullpen - throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games over the last 3 seasons. The Rangers are 2-11 in their last 13 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Rockies are 9-2 in their last 11 games following a loss. The Rockies are 5-0 in Anderson's last 5 starts.
SPORTS WAGERS
Tampa Bay +131 over TORONTO
Jake Odorizzi is one of the hottest pitchers in the majors right now with four walks issued, 27 K’s and a 1.71 ERA over his last 32 frames covering five starts. It gets better too. In his last start, Odorizzi’s groundball rate was 50%. His swing and miss rate over his last five starts was 15%, which is up five percentage points from his overall swing and miss rate of 10%. Before he had spent much time in the majors, minor league analysts projected that Odorizzi would mature into a reliable and very effective starter. Now 26 years old and in the middle of his third full season, that may be coming into fruition. Furthermore, Odorizzi owns current Blue Jays’ hitters. In 134 career AB’s against Odorizzi, current Jays have a mere 20 hits (.149 BA). That’s when the Jays were seeing beach balls. Right now, Toronto is seeing BB gun pellets with a .207 team batting average over the past 20 games, which ranks dead last in MLB over that span.
One can never rely on a knuckleball pitcher because the risk is too high when spotting a tag. That risk becomes even greater when applied to Toronto’s R.A Dickey. At home, Toronto has won just two of Dickey’s last 14 starts. This year at the Rogers Center, Dickey is 2-8 with an ERA of 5.40 over 71.2 innings. What’s even more disturbing is that Dickey has been tagged for 15 jacks in those aforementioned home innings.
This is the time of year that also-rans begin to enjoy the spoiler role. These two are longtime rivals and the Rays would love nothing more than to come in here and make life miserable for the Blue Jays. Tampa has always competed well against Toronto and in fact, the Rays came in here in May and beat the Blue Jays, 6-3, 12-2 and 13-2 in a three-game sweep. Now they’ll come in relaxed with no pressure whatsoever while the Blue Jays continue to squeeze their bats tight.
Cincinnati +174 over ST. LOUIS
The price here on the Cardinals is just plain stupid. The Cardinals are playing foolish baseball by committing too many errors, not moving runners over and leaving pitchers in there too long. Their relievers have been a complete disaster too. They’ll now look to Michael Wacha to turn things around and while it could happen, he and the Cardinals are way overpriced for us to ignore the dog in this one. Wacha has a 1.40 WHIP after 126 innings, which is above our 1.30 threshold for acceptability. In other words, he’s pitching with too much traffic on the bases almost every single game. In his last start, Wacha walked one and struck out three in five innings. His first-pitch strike rate over his last six games is only 57%, which suggests he could be running out of gas. For the most part, Wacha’s season has been a decent one for sure. However, Wacha's xERA of 4.11 isn't anything to get excited about. He hit a wall at the end of last year with an ERA of 7.37 in last six starts and he had serious shoulder issues late in 2014. Backed by solid control, a groundball tilt, and respectable swing and miss stuff, there's a lot to like about Wacha at the age of 25. Thing is, he’s a late season big risk, especially with the signs of fatigue setting in.
We’ve backed Cody Reed a few times this season without much success but we’re not about to give up on this talented starter. Reed has wicked stuff without the results and while said results are ugly on paper (7.30 ERA) it’s all been fueled by some rotten luck. The beautiful thing is that Reed’s surface ERA after eight starts gets us a hugely inflated number here. First off, Reed has 38 K’s in 41 innings, which comes with the full support of his 12% swing and miss rate. He averages 93 MPH on the gun and is often at 95 MPH. In his last start, Reed’s groundball rate was 70%. His overall groundball rate is in the upper echelon of starters at 57% and 63% over his past four starts. Reed’s low strand rate of 65% and high hr/f rate of 31% have combined to torpedo his surface stats. That hr/f rate is actually a sick number that is working against him. More bad luck can be seen in Reed’s BABIP, which is at .367. Typically, balls in play will find holes or drop in three out of every 10 at bats, which explain a hitter that bats .300 every year. Said hitter will ALWAYS put the ball in play and that’s the reason for his consistent BA. Well, the same numbers apply to pitchers too. League average for BABIP is .297, which gives us an idea of just how unlucky Reed has been. This kid has nasty stuff and once his metrics normalize, the wins will follow. At this price against the reeling Cardinals, this is a wager worth making.
Atlanta +141 over MILWAUKEE
Robert Whalen makes just the second start of his MLB career. Whalen was tagged for four runs in the first inning of his first start against Pittsburgh but settled down and did not allow another run over the next four frames. He ended up going five full and allowing four runs for an ERA of 7.20, which looks ugly on paper but does not tell the full story. Whalen began the season in Double-A before getting the call to Triple-A in mid-July. Despite struggling with the injury bug in recent seasons, he’s been fully healthy in 2016. When healthy, he is a command/control starter with average stuff. He consistently throws good strikes to all quadrants of the strike zone with all three offerings. Whalen’s fastball mostly sits in the low-90s, but he exhibits a lot of deception with his throwing motion and arm slot. Additionally, the sinking action on his fastball makes it difficult to elevate. His other pitches include a curveball that serves as his putaway pitch and a solid-average change-up. There is no question that Whalen bring risk but this is simply a scouting report on the guy and has very little to do with our decision to back the Braves. This one is all about the fade.
Not interested in Milwaukee as a big favorite and certainly not interested in Zach Davies as a big favorite either. The Brewers are coming off a six-game trip to San Diego and Arizona where they won once in both cities. The opposition scored 39 times on the Crew in those six games. Davies' stock is high because he has won three games in a row while posting a 2.45 ERA over that stretch but the skills do not support the results. Davies' swing and miss rate in his last start was 4%. He averages 89 MPH on the gun and relies heavily on a change that he throws 20% of the time. He’s decreased the usage of both his cutter and curve so that he’s mostly throwing fastballs and changeups and when he’s inside the zone on those, players are making contact 90.1% of the time. Zack Davies is on quite a roll with an ERA of 1.78 over his last five starts. That’s the same ERA that James Shields had over a recent five-game stretch, which once again proves that pitchers can get very lucky (or unlucky) over an extended period of time. Davies xERA over his last five starts is 4.03 with the fact remaining that excels at nothing. He has a repeatable delivery and induces a fair amount of groundballs but he is average at best and never will be anything more. Davies has far more appeal as a dog.
The Braves pick up Matt Kemp at the trade deadline and subsequently score five runs or more in four of their past five games while winning all four. Against the Cardinals on the weekend, Atlanta scored 13 and six runs respectively on Saturday and Sunday. Feeling good and having fun, these enthusiastic Braves have a great chance to keep it going against here.
Power Sports
Houston vs. Minnesota
Pick: Houston
A weekend that started out w/ so much promise (5-0 shutout of Texas on Friday) quickly deteriorated into disappointment as the Astros then dropped B2B games to the first place Rangers and thus lost ground in the American League West. Now they have to hit the road, but that's not all that bad considering the opponent is Minnesota. For tonight's opener, Houston faces a pitcher in terrible form and should have no problem pulling out a win.
Twins starter Tyler Duffey has a cringe-inducing 14.91 ERA and 2.795 WHIP his L3 starts. During that time, he has given up a total of 16 runs on 25 hits in just 9 2/3 innings of work. Overall, Duffey's numbers are not good this year. In 18 starts, his ERA and WHIP are 6.21 and 1.526 respectively. He's actually been less effective at home than on the road w/ a 7.96 ERA and 1.684 WHIP here at Target Field.
Houston counters w/ Colin McHugh, who comes off a quality outing against Toronto where he struck out 10 over six innings and allowed only three runs. Unfortunately, the Astros still lost that game 3-1. McHugh gave up three solo home runs in the loss. I'm not concerned about the home run ball here as McHugh had allowed just two in his previous five starts. Houston leads the AL in run prevention (448). Minnesota is last (577).
Bruce Marshall
Tampa Bay at Toronto
Pick: Tampa Bay
We're usually not looking to go with Tampa Bay, but will take a chance tonight at Air Canada Centre behind red-hot starter Jake Odorizzi, who has not allowed a run in his last three starts covering 20 2/3 IP. Meanwhile Toronto's R.A. Dickey is off of a quality start in the Houston humidity, but has really labored lately at Rogers Centre, allowing 12 runs in his last two starts covering 8 2/3 IP.
Big Al
Texas vs. Colorado
Pick: Under
A lot of major league pitchers are intimidated by Coors Field, but Cole Hamels is not one of them. Indeed, his ERA at Coors Field is a spectacular 1.90 since 2010 (6 ER in 28 1-3 innings pitched). And he's also had eight quality starts vs. the Rockies (of 9 outings) since 2010, regardless of venue. Tonight, Hamels will match up against another southpaw: Tyler Anderson. Anderson's having a fine season, with a 3.25 ERA in 10 starts.
Scott Rickenbach
Giants vs. Marlins
Play: Under 6½
Jose Fernandez gets the start for the Marlins and he is 9-2 with a 2.11 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in his 12 home starts this season. Not surprisingly, the under is 8-4 in his dozen home games this season. Johnny Cueto gets the start for the Giants and his last start went over the total but each of his four prior starts stayed under the total. Cueto has allowed a total of 7 earned runs in his last two starts but gave up 2 earned runs or less in 11 of his last 14 starts! The veteran right-hander has a solid 2.70 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Marlins. The under is an incredible 10-1 in the Giants last 11 games against teams with a winning record on the season. The under is 33-22 (60%) in the Marlins last 55 games as a home favorite of -125 to -150. The Giants have had just 2 overs in their last 11 games and this game has the makings of a true pitchers' duel. That's why the number set by the odds maker is so low but don't let that scare you away as this game should be a 1-0, 2-1, or 3-2 type of game!
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the Under in the Giants and Marlins from Miami.
Miami returns home after a high-scoring Saturday and Sunday in Colorado, but with Jose Fernandez the owner of a career 26-2 mark at home, and a scant 1.62 ERA in those home contests, I doubt the punchless Giants who were blanked yesterday are going to muster much offense tonight.
Johnny Cueto has remained solid even during the Giants tailspin, as the righty stands at 8-1 with a 2.82 ERA in his away starts for the season. The Under has cashed in 4 of Cueto's last 5 starts as well.
Going to play it low in Miami tonight.
Giants-Marlins to hold Under the total.
3* SAN FRANCISCO-MIAMI UNDER
Scott Delaney
Taking a longshot for my free play tonight, as I like the Cincinnati Reds against the St. Louis Cardinals, at Busch Stadium. And in this one I want you listing the starting pitchers, Cody Reed and Michael Wacha.
This is a pitching rematch from last week, and Reed is still in search of his first Major League win. The young left-hander has allowed first-inning runs in five of his eight starts, including four against St. Louis in his last outing. That was an eye-opener and a lesson learned for this kid.
Tonight will be the night he shocks everyone, and gets off on the right foot, rather than getting pelted. I mean, of the 33 earned runs he’s allowed in 40 2/3 innings, 13 have come in the first. That has to change. No better game to make the change than with revenge on the brain.
As for Wacha, he will be facing the Reds for a second consecutive start. He struggled to find his fastball command early in his last one and lasted only five innings, allowing two runs on six hits. Though Wacha has won his last five decisions, I think he struggles in this one.
Take a shot with the road pup.
5* REDS
Brad Wilton
The Twins have been both hitting it, and allowing it to be hit lately. I am talking about the little sphere that has been pinballing all over the field when Minnesota plays a game this month.
Minny has played 9 straight Overs, and tonight's starter Tyler Duffey isn't exactly fooling anyone when he starts, as his Over 14 ERA for his last 3 starts proves.
The Over has cashed in each of Duffey's last 3 starts, and is 11-4-3 for the season when he starts for Minnesota.
Collin McHugh's ERA is near 9 for his last 3 starts, and the Over in the series is 4-1-2 the last 7 times the Astros and the Twins have met.
Look for the runs to add up tonight.
5* HOUSTON-MINNESOTA OVER
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 97-80 run with free picks: Tigers at MARINERS (-110).
The STORYLINE in this game today - My free play tonight is on the Seattle Mariners minus the money against the Detroit Tigers, and I do not want you listing pitchers, as this is all about momentum. Right now, the 'mo' is working against the Tigers, who have to travel and play a streaking Mariners team that probably still has postseason aspirations.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - The key here is Seattle's three-game win streak. The M's are in second place in the American League West, 7.5 games back of the division-leading Texas Rangers. They're 3.5 games back in the A.L. Wildcard race, and would love nothing more than to be able to make a run at this point, and pick up even more momentum this week.
BOTTOM LINE is - Okay, so I really don't care about the scheduled starters being listed on your ticket, but you best believe I'm confident knowing I have Hisashi Iwakuma on the hill. The right-hander is coming off of one of his best starts all season: 7 1/3 innings of shutout baseball against the Red Sox. Iwakuma has a 2.40 ERA over his last five starts. This is a great spot for Seattle.
4* MARINERS
Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is on Texas Rangers, over the Colorado Rockies, and in this one I want you listing the scheduled starters: Cole Hamels and Tyler Anderson.
Let's start with the fact the hard-hitting Rangers are playing in Denver, and with the thin air always being a factor inside Coors Field, make note that Texas ranks second in the bigs with 82 home runs on the road. Don't be surprised to see the Rangers take advantage of Anderson, who has allowed 15 earned runs over his last six starts. He's also given up at least one home run in four of his 10 starts since debuting in June. I wouldn't be surprised to see him give up a couple today.
Meanwhile, with Hamels, we have a guy who allowed three runs over seven innings in a 3-2 loss to the Orioles last Wednesday, and will be looking for a little redemption. Hamels is now 3-1 with a 1.59 ERA in four starts since the All-Star break, and is familiar with the Rockies' dangerous ballpark. Remember, he spent some time with the Phillies, so he knows National League venues. The left-hander is 4-4 with a 3.21 ERA in 10 career starts against the Rockies.
Take the Rangers and list both scheduled starters.
4* RANGERS
Buster Sports
Tigers at Mariners
Play: Under 7.5
Tonight in Seattle the Tigers and the Mariners start a 3 game series with Detroit holding a slim lead with a wild card berth and Seattle only 3 1/2 back. So we expect the pitching to be playoff type and we have the right guys for the job. The Tigers send RH Michael Fulmer (9-2, 2.42 ERA) to the hill and the rookie has been everything the Tigers were hoping for and more. In his last 7 starts he has a 2.42 ERA with a WHIP of 0.94. The Mariners send RH Hisashi Iwakuma (12-7, 3.99 ERA) to the hill tonight and he is starting to turn things around for Seattle as in his last 7 starts he has a 6-1 record with a 2.95 ERA and a WHIP of 1.15. Backing our selection is the fact that the UNDER is 8-2 in Mariners last 10 vs. American League Central and the fact that the UNDER is 8-0-1 in Tigers last 9 games following a loss.
Micah Roberts
Orioles at A's
Play: A's
The A's have lost eight of their last nine and after winning eight straight behind Kendall Graveman, they lost his last two and he was hit hard each time by the Angels and Indians. But we get him at home tonight against an O's squad that is only 24-30 on the road. Bets home record in MLB, but on the road, they have issues. They've also gone UNDER in 21 of their past 26 games. Kevin Gausman has bene just the O's home/away disparity going 0-7 with a 5.62 ERA in 11 road starts. He doesn't get beat up though, so I can trust him to keep the ball in the park and a low score. I'm jumping on the A's to win and UNDER. Not that it matters much, but the A's have gone 7-1 in their last eight Monday games.
Bob Balfe
Rangers -110
Cole Hamels at even money is something I will take just about all the time. Anderson has pitched very well this season in his limited work, but I will take Hamels every time. The Rangers are a better baseball team and should cash the ticket tonight. Take the Rangers.
GoodFella
Twins TT Over 4
The Astros send out SP Collin Mchugh this evening. He has really struggled when taking the ball on the ROAD this season. In 10 road starts, he has a very high (5.44 ERA) with a (.306 BAA). His last road start, he was torched by the Tigers. He's really struggled with his command and has been very inconsistent this season. These Twins rank 6th in the American League in .OPS vs right-handed pitching. I do expect the Twins to get to Mchugh eventually tonight. These Twins have faced him one time this season already, and they put up 4 ER, 2 HR's and 7 hits in just 5 1/3 innings off of him. We have game time temps in the low 80's for tonight's game, so some nice weather for the game. I really like these Twins to plate at least 4 runs in this spot tonight & I'm on their Team Total going over on Monday evening.