Free Picks for Monday, July 17th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
MARINERS AT ASTROS
PLAY: ASTROS -1.5
This Houston team just continues to churn out big profits for those who back them regularly. It’s as if the oddsmakers can’t overprice them enough to stop the money flow, and the powerful ‘Stros keep producing.
Consider this. While most sharps will tell you that laying -1.5 runs is poor value, this Houston entry is now ahead right around 28 net units for the season on the Runs Line. That’s just stupid, but it’s also true.
As for tonight, Lance McCullers gets the call for the hosts and his numbers at home are nuts. The flip side is Seattle lefty Ariel Miranda, who is more than two runs per game worse on the road than he is when throwing at Safeco.
Add in a potentially weary Mariners bullpen and this is a bad spot for a very average team against one of the two best entries in all of baseball.
I actually think the Money Line is short on this game, as I make the Astros more like -260. So it’s not like a straight play is a terrible idea. But I can see this one being a blowout, and as one who prefers to reduce liability as far as prices are concerned, I’ll willingly take the Runs Line gamble with the Houston side.
Mike Lundin
Mariners vs. Astros
Play: Astros -1½
The Seattle Mariners are coming off a three-game road series sweep of the White Sox, but I think they're about to run into trouble at Minute Maid Park in Houston Monday night.
Lance McCullers Jr. (7-2, 3.05 ERA) takes the ball for the Astros. He's 5-2 with a 2.09 ERA in seven career starts against the Mariners, and he's held them to two runs in 11 innings over two outings on the season. McCullers Jr. is 4-0 with a 2.34 ERA in seven home starts on the season.
The Mariners hand the ball to left-hander Ariel Miranda (7-4, 4.15 ERA) who will take on Houston for the fourth time this season. Miranda has been tagged with 10 runs on 17 hits in 18 frames in the previous three turns against the Astros, and he has posted a 5.48 ERA in nine road starts on the season.
The Astros are 10-2 in McCullers Jr.s last 12 starts vs. a team with a losing record while the Mariners are 8-20 in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Marc Lawrence
St Louis at New York
Play: St Louis +108
Edges - Cardinals: Wainwright 3-0 last three team starts in this park, and 11-1 last 12 team starts during July, including 4-0 the last four way… NY Mets: Wheeler 6.34 ERA with 1.81 WHIP last seven overall starts, and 0-4 team starts versus NL Central this season… With Wainwright in fine KW form with 23 Ks and only 2 BBs his last three starts, we recommend a 1* play on St. Louis.
Ben Burns
Padres vs. Rockies
Play: Under 11½
Luis Perdomo (4-4, 4.54 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, he most recently allowed two runs (one earned) off nine hits over five innings in a victory over the hard-hitting Indians on Wednesday (Perdomo has been decent on the road with a 3.99 ERA.) Kyle Freeland (9-7, 3.77) counters for Colorado, he most recently went 8.1 scoreless innings against the White Sox on Sunday, striking out nine. Freeland has been surprisingly good at home by posting a 5-4, 3.23 record/ERA. Recent form displayed by these two starting pitchers suggests that this total is just a little high, consider the under.
Scott Spreitzer
Cubs vs. Braves
Play: Cubs -146
The Cubs caught fire over the weekend with a sweep of the Orioles. We said on our Friday ESPN radio show that we felt the Cubs had a great shot to finally bust loose at the plate and they did. I expect the runs to continue to pile-up against Julio Teheran, who has struggled at the Braves' new "digs" in 2017. Atlanta is on a 1-7 slide in his home starts and Teheran has been smashed for a 7.58 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, and .298 BAA, with a horrible 2.52 HR's per 9 IP ratio. Teheran simply serves up too many flyballs to be successful in this venue. That's scary news for the home team facing a Cubs' team that has seemingly found their bats. Jon Lester struggled in his last two starts before the break, but we expect the veteran hurler to put it behind him tonight. Lester has owned the Braves over the last few seasons and he had allowed just 7 earned runs and 23 base runners in his previous four starts, spanning 26 innings, before the two-game skid. The Cubs have won 22 of Lester's last 27 starts against teams with a losing record and the Braves have won just 6 of Teheran's last 27 starts at home (SunTrust & Turner).
Teddy Davis
Detroit vs. Kansas City
Play: Kansas City -1½
The Royals won yesterday in a walk off and look for the momentum to carry over here tonight with their best pitcher on the mound in Vargas. He is 12-3 on the year and 7-1 at home. He owns a 2.62 ERA for the season and a very good 1.84 ERA at home.
Zimmermann just isn't what he use to be. He is 0-4 on the road this season with a 6.99 ERA. His last three starts his ERA is 9.94 ERA.
Will Rogers
Cubs vs. Braves
Pick: Over 9
The set-up: The defending champs returned from the All Star break and swept the Orioles in three games at Baltimore, scoring 27 runs in the three games while also holding Baltimore to just three runs on Saturday and Sunday after allowing eight runs in a one-run win on Friday. The sweep allowed the Cubs to climb over .500 (46-45) but the Brewers won two of three over the weekend and still own a 4 1/2 game lead on the defending champs in the NL Central. The Cubs head to Atlanta to open a three-game series with the Braves, who are also coming off a sweep by winning three games at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Atlanta sits at 45-45 but in the NL East, trail the Nats by 9 1/2 games.
The pitching matchup: Jon Lester (5-6, 4.25 ERA) gets the nod for the Cubs and Julio Teheran (7-6 & 4.79 ERA) for the Braves. Lester has certainly not looked like the same pitcher who won 19 games a season ago in the first half of the 2017 season and in fact, was pummeled for 10 runs (four earned) in just two-thirds of an inning in his final start of the first half on July 9. He has allowed nine ERs in 5 2/3 innings across two July starts, giving him .a 14.29 ERA. Lester is 4-2 in seven career starts (teams are 5-2) against Atlanta, including going 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA in two outings last season with two walks and 17 strikeouts over 14 innings. Teheran ended an up-and-down first half with two strong road starts to begin July, allowing two runs on seven hits in 13 1/3 innings in a no-decision against Oakland and a victory against Washington (1.35 ERA). However, Teheran posted a 6.35 ERA in June. He is 2-0 with a 3.11 ERA in six career starts against Chicago (Braves are 6-0).
The pick: It's hard to completely overlook Teheran's strong career numbers against the Cubs but those Chicago bats "got going" over the weekend. There's more. Teheran has not found SunTrust Park to his liking, as in nine home starts in 2017, he owns a 7.58 ERA and 1.64 WHIP with seven of the nine going over. That's the play.
Bruce Marshall
Chicago at Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta
The Cubs might be ready to make their long-awaited move after sweeping the Orioles out of the All-Star break, but the uptick needs to be put in some context because of the sad state of the O's. Not sure we can assume the recently-struggling Jon Lester continues the momentum. Instead, reasons to like the surging Braves, especially at this price, and off of their own sweep of the D-backs. Starter Julio Teheran has hurt his ERA with a few bad outings, but has seven quality starts in his last ten trips to the mound.
Jim Feist
Cleveland at San Francisco
Pick: Cleveland
Cleveland has a strong offense, sixth in baseball in on-base percentage. The Indians are 20-8 on the road against a team with a losing home record, plus 18-8 in their last 26 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. San Francisco is home but has a weak offense, bottom 10 in runs scored and on-base percentage, on a 4-14 run here. The Giants are 6-14 vs. a team with a winning record. Starter Matt Moore (3-9, 6.04 ERA) served up five runs on 12 hits and struck out just one over 3.2 innings in a loss Friday to the Marlins.
Larry Ness
St Louis at New York
Play: New York
The Cards will open the season's second half on a 10-game road trip and they dropped two of three at Pittsburgh this past weekend to begin that trek. That leaves them 18-23 on the road so far in 2017 and only 44-47 overall, 6 1/2 games back of the Brewers in the NL Central. The Mets are stuck in the NL East with the Washington Nats and find themselves 13 games back in the division, as they get set to host the Cards for a four-game series at Citi Field. The Mets opened the second half by winning 14-2 and 9-3 over the visiting Rockies Friday and Saturday but were then routed 13-4 in Sunday’s series finale.
Adam Wainwright (10-5, 5.20 ERA) and Zack Wheeler (3-6, 4.86 ERA) will square off tonight, just as they did July 8 in St Louis, right before the break. Wainwright allowed just one run while recording seven strikeouts over 6.2 innings in the 4-1 St Louis win, giving him three consecutive wins, while striking out at least seven in each outing. He's 4-5 with a 4.66 ERA in 12 career appearances (10 starts / Cards are 5-5) against the Mets.
Wheeler hasn't won since May 20, going 0-4 (team was 2-5) in that span. He had a stretch of three straight starts in which he didn’t make it past the fourth inning before he had a strong outing in that July 8 game at St Louis, when he allowed two runs over six innings in a hard-luck loss. That marked his first career appearance against the Cards.
Wainwright got off to an awful start in 2017 but has somewhat turned things around. He has allowed two ERs or less in eight of his last 11 starts but in those other three in that stretch, has allowed 24 ERs over just 10.1 innings (that's ugly!). One just never knows with Wainwright at this stage of his career. In this quick "re-hook," I'll back Wheeler.
Ray Monohan
Phillies vs. Marlins
Play: Phillies +135
The Philadelphia Phillies and the Miami Marlins face off on Monday, and with the Phillies at plus money they have good value. On the mound for the Marlins is Tom Koehler who has been flat out bad this year. He comes into this game with a 1-4 record and an ERA of of eight. He comes into this game really struggling. In his last three starts he has gone a total of 9.2 innings and given up 18 innings. I think the Phillies will be able to get to him early again and that will lead them to running up the score.
On the mound for the Phillies is Jerad Eickhoff who has pitched well in the last two games. He has gone a total of 11 innings and only gave up one run. Some trends to note. Marlins are 1-7 in Koehlers last 8 home starts. Marlins are 0-5 in their last 5 home games.
Handicappers Hub
Cubs vs. Braves
Play: Over 9½
Jon Lester is coming in 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA in his last 3 starts and 2-3 with a 4.96 ERA on the road this season. Meanwhile, Teheran is 1-6 with a 7.58 ERA at home this season and 1-1 with a 4.96 ERA in his last 3 starts. Look for both starters to struggle tonight and this over to hit pretty easily in Atlanta.
sleepyj
Washington at Cincinnati
Play: Washington
Simple handicap here...Nats have been hot and they get Strasburg on the mound today....He is coming of a loss in a game in which he had a little trouble....Reds lumped up Strasburg the last time they saw him, but my gut feeling is he comes ready today....Feldman goes for the Reds and he has been average..Nats just saw him a few games ago and the Nats lost that game...I think the Nats complete the sweep and Strasburg gets right back in the win column...Price looks fishy, but at -146 I'll go ahead and bite.
Jim Feist
Indians at Giants
Play: Over 8.5
Cleveland has a strong offense, sixth in baseball in on-base percentage. When Tomlin is on the hill, the tribe are 7-2-1 in his last 10 Interleague starts. San Francisco is home but has a weak offense, bottom 10 in runs scored and on-base percentage, on a 4-14 run here. Despite their weak offense, the Giants 5-2 in their last 7 IL home games. Matt Moore has not been good this season for the Giants. Moore has a 3-9 record with a lofty 6.09 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. In addition, Moore has allowed 11 runs in his last 13.1 innings. Walks have also been an issue, as the 28-year-old southpaw has given up nine free passes during those 13.1 innings. This game has all the markings of an over for me.