Wunderdog
Milwaukee @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh -116
Pittsburgh rallied for two runs in the ninth to beat the Cardinals 4-3 on Sunday for its seventh win in its last nine games, while Milwaukee was losing to the Phillies. Chad Kuhl has settled down after a rough start to the season and has a 3.50 ERA his last seven appearances. Kuhl gave up a run in three innings in an emergency start against the Cubs after recording a quality start in a 6-3 win at Philadelphia. The right-hander has allowed only four earned runs in 16 innings in July. Brent Suter is making just his fourth start, including a game the Brewers eventually lost 5-3 to the Yankees on July 8. Milwaukee is 0-4 in Suter's last four road starts. The Pirates have won four of their last five against left-handed starters and is 4-0 in Kuhl's last four starts against the Brewers.
Power Sports
Cleveland vs. San Francisco
Pick: Cleveland -125
Though most (myself included) are willing to concede them the AL Central (weak division), the Indians really need to get their act together. In their first series after the Break, they got swept by Oakland. On the road or not, that's just embarrassing as the money losses at the betting window have now hit -23.1 units, second worst in all of baseball. Fortunately, the new week brings a matchup w/ the one team below them in that department, that being San Francisco, who at -26.4 units has been a complete disaster in 2017.
The Tribe's +63 run differential for the year is actually quite good and can be creditied to the fact they have allowed the fewest number of runs in the American League! Therefore, a matchup w/ one of the lowest scoring teams in all of baseball (Giants are 28th in runs scored) should, theoretically, be advantageous. While their own offense will obviously be affected as well, the fact that there will be no DH in this series should be a giant (pun intended!) boon for Cleveland on the runs allowed side of the ledger in this series.
Josh Tomlin is the starter that has sustained the heaviest losses at the betting window in the Cleveland rotation. He's -10.0 units himself, putting him right at the bottom among all MLB starters. But he pitched well against another NL opponent (San Diego) his last time out and that bodes well for his chances here. The fact that Cleveland is just 3-11 vs. the National League in 2017 is downright shocking. But they are 5-1 this year when coming off three straight losses. SF will go w/ Matt Moore here and he's been downright terrible of late w/ a 7.43 ERA and 2.401 WHIP his L3 starts.
SPORTS WAGERS
MINNESOTA +100 over N.Y. Yankees
Lots of moving parts here. First, the Yanks are in a letdown series after four at Boston over the weekend, including a double-header yesterday. Secondly, the Yanks have been struggling for well over a month with one of the worst W/L records in baseball. Aside from all that, you’ll pay to back the Yankees against any team not named Houston or Boston mainly because Aaron Judge is now the face of MLB with every network trying to turn him into a superstar in his rookie year. At the All-Star game, 40 reporters were around Judge at all times while two or fewer reporters were around everyone else. In any case, this is a very decent spot to fade the Yanks with Bryan Mitchell starting.
Mitchell has appeared in 12 games this season but this will be his first start, which is a completely different mindset. He’s only thrown 16 innings all year, which also puts him a step behind every player. That’s another disadvantage he’ll have to try and overcome. Mitchell threw just 25 innings for the Yanks last season. This hard-throwing righty with a groundball tilt was set to open in the Yanks pen last year but a fractured toe intervened in late March and he didn’t pitch until August. A starter for most of his career, he held his own on paper in five September starts but he had poor peripherals. He still does. Mitchell’s shaky control and weak swing and miss rate tab him as a middle reliever and not the chalk in his first start of the year on the road, no less.
In 65 frames covering 13 starts, Adalberto Mejia has a 4-4 record with a 4.43 ERA. However, if you take out one start against the Mariners in which he was tagged for nine runs in 3.2 innings, his numbers would look a whole lot better. In fact, in 11 of his 13 starts, Mejia has allowed three earned runs or less. In his final two starts in June on the road at Boston and Cleveland, Mejia did not allow a single run. He’s also getting stretched out more. In his first nine starts, the Twins had him on a 90-pitch count but he’s thrown over 100 pitches in three of his last four starts. There are other redeeming qualities as well. Mejia’s 18% line-drive rate (16% over his last three starts) is well below the league average of 21%. His WHIP, K-rate and swing and miss stuff are all trending in the right direction too. The Twinkies are bringing him along slowly and it appears to be working. This prospect with decent repertoire and pitchability was shut down last season shortly after late-Aug MLB debut due to innings limit. Mejia had an impressive 3.00 ERA, 126/30 K/BB in 132 IP at AA/AAA levels and he seems to be figuring it out at this level now. Target Field should be hopping tonight and the Twinkies should not be a dog here.
Texas -1½ +185 over BALTIMORE
We’re putting this one in the same category as the Coors Field alternate run line theory, thus we’re playing the dog here on the aforementioned alternate run line. There figures to be an avalanche of runs scored here because this might be the worst pitching matchup in terms of skills in the past 50 years or more. Chris Tillman versus Andrew Cashner would make Marco Estrada versus James Shields look like Clayton Kershaw versus Max Scherzer. Again, there will a bevy of scoring opportunities and with the Rangers being on the road and in better form than the Orioles, we’ll gladly side with them.
Cashner's 2017 stats (e.g., a 3.54 ERA) have been far better than his skills report (5.35 xERA). With a paltry 4.3 K’s/9 entering this start and overall poor command (81 IP - 36 BB - 41 K’s), only a 50% groundball rate and a 77% strand rate have saved Cashner to this point. Add in no pure quality starts and nearly half pure disaster starts and unless things turn around quickly from a skills standpoint, it won't be long before Cashner's sub-4 ERA is history. That said, hopefully every pitcher in that Texas dugout watched Jose Quintana masterfully dominate the free swinging Orioles. Quintana’s effort yesterday should be must watch film for every pitcher that faces the Orioles. You see, Baltimore’s feast or famine lineup will get themselves out by swinging at everything. No team in baseball swings at pitches outside the zone more than the O’s. Now that they’re gripping the bats a little tighter, even a stiff like Cashner has a slight chance to go five full and allow four runs or less. We’ll take an effort like that because Chris Tillman should be nowhere near a pitching mound.
In 2016, Chris Tillman started strong with 2.87 ERA in his first 14 games but things quickly unraveled. His whiffs fell back to his career norms as his velocity diminished from April to October taking his command from passable to poor and leading to 4.64 ERA over his final 16 games. Things have gone from bad to worse this year. Tillman’s shoulder issues resurfaced this past spring, forcing him to miss all of April. The results have been disastrous (7.90 ERA, 2.14 WHIP) through his first 11 starts. Never a control artist, Tillman hasn't been able to hit water from a boat in 2017. An awful 50% first-pitch strike rate and 42% Ball% assures us that he’ll continue to pitch into favorable hitting counts. In a year when most velocities are up, Tillman's has sunk. A meager 8% swing and miss rate says the soft-tossing strikeout rate (36 K’s in 49 IP) is here to stay. This type of skills collapse typically reeks of a hidden injury and given Tillman's April shoulder issues, it's likely that something still isn't right with his arm. Dude is a mess with a 6.96 xERA and a 31%/31% groundball/line-drive split. With a fourth straight year of poor xERA’s, a drop in velocity, and inability to throw strikes or miss bats, Tillman is pure fade material right now and it sure doesn’t hurt that the O’s are coming off a weekend in which they got their heads bashed in by the Cubbies. The Rangers might do the same.
Milwaukee +110 over PITTSBURGH
The Pirates have been a very live dog on many nights over the past six weeks but it’s now time to switch gears, as they now take on the role of “expected to win”. When the Buccos are expected to win, they usually don’t and it sure doesn’t hurt our cause that Chad Kuhl is not comfortable when pitching at home. In nine home starts, Kuhl is 1-4 with a 6.46/5.11 ERA/xERA split. At PNC, Kuhl has been tagged for 28 earned runs in 39 innings with a weak BB/K split of 18/29. He’s been behind in the count at home in 62% of the batters he’s faced, which is one of the worst marks in baseball. On the road, Kuhl has been better so it’s either he’s not relaxed at home or there is something uncomfortable for him on that mound. Regardless, we’re not going to ignore his home struggles.
Pittsburgh is hitting a mere .232 against southpaws and will face one here in Brent Suter. That name sounds more like a hockey player but the kid has been really good since his call-up with a BB/K split of 8/25 in 27 innings. Over his last 15 innings, Suter has a BB/K split of 3/18 with a 73% first-pitch strike rate. It’s a small sample size but this kid is really interesting because he’s a genius when it comes to pitch sequencing. He has hitter’s completely off balance and it’s almost as if he’s toying with them. Brent Suter’s fastball averages 86 MPH. He’s living proof that the best pitch in baseball is still a well located fastball. He has three other pitches at his disposal to keep the opposition guessing but it’s his control and sequencing that makes him so effective. Suter has appeared in 10 games this year and comes in with a 3.95 xERA but that xERA is down to 2.93 in his three games as a starter. It may not last but so far it looks legit so we’re going to ride this hot hand.
San Diego -1½ +240 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
16-22 + 27.65 units
Scott Rickenbach
Seattle @ Houston
Play Seattle +1½
Quick...who is the hottest team in the American League right now? If you answered Seattle you'd probably be one of the few to get the right answer. But the fact is that the Mariners have very quietly won 4 straight games and no other AL team has a longer winning streak than that. That said, I certainly like the value being offered here with being able to take the M's not only at +1.5 runs on the run line but also getting a plus money return with the run line! Yes, the Astros have the number one record in the American League and Lance McCullers has great numbers on the season. However, Houston was just 3-3 in their last 6 games prior to yesterday's win. Also, McCullers allowed 9 runs (8 earned) on 15 hits in the 9 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts before the All Star break. Ariel Miranda gets the start for the Mariners and the southpaw's ERA may not be "that" impressive but he has a 0.88 WHIP in his last 3 starts! In other words, he doesn't allow many baserunners and over the past two months he truly has only been hit hard ONCE in ELEVEN starts! Miranda got roughed up at Minnesota but, in the other 10 starts he allowed only 35 hits in 63 and 2/3 innings of work. You read that right...the Seattle left-hander allowed only 3.5 hits per outing in those 10 starts! I'll gladly grab the exceptional value being offered here with the big dog Mariners. By the way, as a road dog of +175 to +250 this season, the M's are a perfect 3-0! Look for the Mariners to improve to 7-2 in Monday games on the year. The Astros are a great team but they're very overpriced here and they are 19-20 (-$9,500!) in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs the past 3 seasons.
Brandon Lee
Cardinals vs. Mets
Play: Mets -111
New York is worth a look here as a short home favorite against the Cardinals. New York won 2 of 3 at home out of the break against the Rockies, but are going to come out a little extra motivated after yesterday's ugly 4-13 loss in the finale against Colorado. Losing in blowout fashion is much easier to rebound from than how the Cardinals lost on Sunday. St Louis blew a 3-2 lead in the bottom of the 9th to lose 2 of 3 against division rival Pittsburgh. I just feel this is a great price to back New York given how poor St Louis starter Adam Wainwright has been on the road. Wainwright owns a 8.36 ERA and 1.832 WHIP in 8 road starts.
Jimmy Boyd
Phillies vs. Marlins
Play: Under 9
I like the value here with the total, as I see a much lower scoring affair than the books are calling for in this matchup of NL East bottom feeders. These are two of the weaker offenses in the big leagues and neither was all that impressive at the plate in their first series back from the break.
Phillies will send out Jerad Eickhoff, who comes in at 1-7 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.494 WHIP in 15 starts. That's not good, but Eickhoff appeared to get things figured out going into the break, as he posted a strong 2.12 ERA in his final 3 starts. His last two starts against the Marlins both came in Miami last year and he allowed a mere 3 runs in 13 innings of work. Marlins counter with Tom Koehler, who has atrocious numbers, posting a 7.20 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in 10 starts. However, Koehler was much better in his final start before the break and owns a 3.21 ERA and 1.179 WHIP in 14 career starts against the Phillies.
UNDER is 13-3-2 in the Phillies last 18 games agaisnt a team with a losing record and 7-3-1 in Eickhoffs last 11 starts against the division. UNDER is 6-1-2 Miami's last 9 home games and 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss.
Jack Jones
Indians vs. Giants
Play:Indians -122
The Cleveland Indians were just swept by the Oakland A's in their first series back from the All-Star Break. It's safe to say that they'll be highly motivated to get a win today, and that shouldn't be a problem against the 35-58 San Francisco Giants.
Josh Tomlin certainly hasn't been great this season at 5-9 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.419 WHIP over 17 starts. But he has actually been better than Matt Moore, who is 3-9 with a 6.04 ERA and 1.688 WHIP in 18 starts for the Giants.
Tomlin is 21-7 (+14.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last two seasons. The Indians are 7-1 in their last eight interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Giants are 2-10 in their last 12 home games vs. a right-handed starter. San Francisco is 0-4 in Moore's last four home starts.
John Martin
Rangers vs. Orioles
Play: Rangers +105
The Baltimore Orioles are just 2-8 in their last 10 games overall after getting swept by the Cubs over the weekend. They are 42-49 on the season and trending in the wrong direction. They Texas Rangers have fought their way back to 45-46 and are in position to make a run at the playoffs after taking two of three from the Royals over the weekend. It's hard to believe that the Orioles are favored in this game with Chris Tillman on the mound. Tillman is 1-5 with a 7.90 ERA and 2.14 WHIP in 11 starts. Andrew Cashner has posted a solid 3.54 ERA in 14 starts this season for the Rangers. Tillman is 3-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in seven previous starts against Texas. The Orioles are 1-7 in their last eight home games.
Dave Price
Rays vs. Athletics
Play: Rays -101
The Tampa Bay Rays are 49-44 on the season and right in the middle of the AL East and AL Wild Card races. This is a team with an underrated lineup that is scoring 4.9 RPG against right-handed starters this season. Jake Odorizzi sports a 3.97 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts vs. Oakland. He pitched 8 shutout innings against the A's in his last start against them toward the end of last season. The Rays should score plenty of runs off Daniel Gossett, who is 1-4 with a 6.23 ERA in 6 starts this year, including 0-2 with an 8.16 ERA in his last 3 starts.
ASA
Rays vs. Athletics
Play: Rays +101
Both these teams have been hot but we like having the Rays here off of a loss. Tampa Bay has not lost back to back games since late June. The Rays are 8-4 in their last 12 games and they now visit an Oakland team that has won 3 straight games but is on a 15-22 run when they are entering a contest on a winning streak of 3 or more consecutive games. Daniel Gossett gets the start for the A's in this one and he is 1-4 with a 6.23 ERA on the season. Also, the right-hander has an 8.16 ERA in his last three starts and he has been hit hard in those outings. The Rays will have Jake Odorizzi toeing the rubber in Oakland tonight and he rates a big edge over Gossett. Odorizzi is off of a bad start in his final outing before the All Star break but he previously had gone at least 5 innings while holding the opposition to 3 earned runs or less in 8 of his 12 prior starts. In his last two visits to Oakland Odorizzi has allowed only 2 earned runs on just 8 hits over 14 innings. We look for another strong effort here and will grab the superb line value with the road team in this one!
The Prez
Seattle at Houston
Play: Over 9
Seattle at Houston on Monday Night is scheduled to see first pitch at 8:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park. The Mariners sit rest as the second place team in the American League Central 16.5 games behind tonight’s opponent, the Astros. They have won four straight, three of those coming against the AL Central last place Chicago White Sox to open their road trip. But the M’s are in the thick of the AL Wild Card just 2.5 games outside of the second slot currently owned by the New York Yankees.
The Mariners send Ariel Miranda (7-4, 4.15 ERA) to the Minute Maid mound to oppose the Astros Lance McCullers Jr. (7-2, 3.05).
Ariel Miranda threw seven shutout innings allowing just two hits, two walks, while recording four strikeouts in his last turn against the Los Angeles Angels. However, tonight’s lineup via the Houston Astros is much different than that of the Halos. Miranda has the appearance of a solid option from start to start with his 4.15 ERA but the lefty has benefited from a .218 BABIP and 81.3% strand rate this season. Additionally his FIP is north of 5.00 and the Astros slash (.280/.349/.474/.824) an MLB best versus southpaws this season.
Miranda has a walk rate of 3-plus and a pedestrian K ratio of under 7.00. He has also seen favor in a career high 13-plus percent of his fly balls being infield pop-ups.
McCullers Jr. had won five in a row before his last turn versus the Toronto Blue Jays in which he allowed six runs in just 4-plus innings of work. McCullers ERA sits at a stellar 3.05 over 16 starts. His near 11.00 K/9 ranks in baseball’s Top-10 this season and he can credit the overwhelming success of his change up to an increased swinging strike percentage and his career 2-plus BB/9 this 2017 campaign. But regression should be expected tonight, continued from his last outing against the Jays, as his walk ratio is nearly half of what it was last year and he is working on a career campaign best 26% hard contact percentage.
The Mariners rank in baseball’s Top-10 percent with batting average against change ups and the healthy lineup is in good offensive form.
We benefit from the two pitchers traditional numbers and the fact that the Mariners are running well winning four straight, this in terms of the Over/Under posted by the oddsmakers tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh -116
The Pirates have Kuhl on the mound and are 4-0 vs Milwaukee when he starts as he has a superb 2.25 era against the Brewers. Milwaukee counters with Suter who is 0-2 on the road with a 4+ Era. Road dogs off a home favored loss scoring 2 or less runs have lost over 85% of the time vs an opponent like the Pirates that come in off a home dog win. Look for the Pirates to take the opener.
Nelly
Milwaukee Brewers + over Pittsburgh Pirates
After dropping a game to the NL Central lead on Sunday the Brewers are in a big spot Monday night in Pittsburgh with the Cubs picking up some momentum with a three-game winning streak since the break and a great showing from new acquisition Jose Quintana. Brent Suter has worked his way up to the big leagues with success as a reliever last season and early this season before getting a starting shot. His three starts this season have been solid including back-to-back quality starts bringing his season ERA to just 2.96, with an even lower FIP. Suter has good strikeout numbers and he gets to face a Pirates squad with a .701 team OPS in the past 22 games for barely four runs scored per game. Pittsburgh has only hit 20 of its 89 home runs vs. left-handers, posting a 10-12 mark vs. southpaw starters on the season. Despite Milwaukee's success this season the Pirates have won four of seven meetings as this will be a big four-game road set for the Brewers. 24-year old Chad Kuhl has adequate numbers this season but he has really struggled at PNC Park with a 6.46 ERA in 39 innings of work. Kuhl has pitched pretty well in the last month but four of those five starts were on the road with one home outing vs. lowly San Francisco. The Pirates have shown a bit of life of late but this is still a favorable price on a first place Brewers team that has a great record vs. right-handed starters as well as on the road.
Andrew Lange
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
Play: Under 9
Chad Kuhl's seasonal numbers don't get many bettors excited. But since increasing his fastball velocity a few starts back, he's quietly been effective. Over Kuhl's last seven outings he flashed a 3.50 ERA with solid 29-15 K-to-BB ratio over 36 innings. He was asked to throw on short rest right before the All-Star Break but has had over a week to recover and should hit the ground running in this his second season. He's not a bad matchup against the free swinging Milwaukee Brewers. Kuhl's command is the one thing lacking but in two outings against the Brew Crew, Kuhl fanned eight batter in 8 innings and allowed only two walks and two runs. Milwaukee's Brent Suter is another young arm that has the potential to thrive in the National League. Suter has primarily been used as a reliever but due to injuries is being asked to fill in as a spot starter. A soft-tossing, late blooming lefty, Suter relies on a heavy dose of strikes (187 walks over 679 career innings). In two starts against Baltimore and the New York Yankees, Suter allowed just two runs while fanning 13 and walking only two batters. He's in a favorable situation tonight against a light-hitting Pirates lineup and in a ballpark that heavily favors southpaws. We'll look to capitalize on Suter's first-time-through-the-league as well as Kuhl's steady improvement and play this game under the total.
Rob Veno
New York at Minnesota
Play: Minnesota -102
Good situational spot here for the Twins as they get New York off of a grueling four game set at Boston which ended with a doubleheader yesterday. Reliever Bryan Mitchell is forced into the rotation tonight so the Yankees can keep their starters on normal rest. It’s uncertain how long Mitchell can go in this one since he’s only thrown 7.1 innings this season in his 12 relief appearances. Minnesota has a huge opportunity here if they can get to Mitchell and chase him early because the Yankees bullpen is extremely thin tonight. With their top three arms heavily used over the weekend, have to figure closer Aroldis Chapman (has thrown three straight days), setup man Dellin Betances (threw two of last three days) and Tyler Clippard (thrown back-to-back days) are all either unavailable or only if necessary. Either way, their effectiveness should be less than 100%. Add to that Adam Warren (pitched 2 of last 3 days) and Chase Shreve and Chad Green (have each pitched back-to-back days) and you can see the difficulties Joe Girardi faces with his pitching tonight.
Meanwhile, the Twins send 24-year-old Adalberto Mejia to the hill with a rested bullpen behind him. Mejia owns a 2.79 ERA over his last five starts which encompass 29 innings. Walks remain an issue for the LH as he’s now given 32 free passes in just 65 innings and he’s had some troubles at home owning a 5.62 ERA at Target Field. However, he has been tougher on right handed bats than lefties (.553 SLG% vs. LH/.429 vs RH) which bodes well here since New York power sources Aaron Judge & Gary Sanchez are righties. He’s allowed just 1 HR every 25 AB to right handed hitters. Overall he’ll need to give the Twins 5-6 solid innings in this contest and let Minnesota’s bullpen do the rest.
This is an important series for the Twins who sit just 1.5 games out of first place in the AL Central and the second Wild Card spot behind these Yankees. They seem to remain in pretty good form as indicated by playing the AL’s top team Houston very tough this weekend despite losing the series. The offense is likely to capitalize and put up a lot of runs in this spot which makes the cheap price worth taking.