Mike Lundin
White Sox vs. Mariners
Play: White Sox -136
Two teams struggling to score runs since the All Star break will do battle at Safeco Field Monday night. The Chicago White Sox mustered just one run while getting swept by the Halos over the weekend while the Seattle Mariners totaled five while dropping two of three against Houston. I like the White Sox in this contest with their ace Chris Sale on the mound.
Sale (14-3 , 3.38 ERA) is coming off a pair of rough outings surrendering a total of 13 runs (12 earned) through 12 innings of work, but he has never lost to the Mariners in his career going 4-0 with a 2.66 ERA in seven games (five starts). Current Mariners are batting .218 over 87 at bats against the southpaw and Seattle is 1-5 in its last six when facing a left-handed starter.
Wade LeBlanc (1-0, 3.52 ERA) takes the ball for Seattle as he makes his fourth start of the year. He was roughed up for five runs (four earned) on six hits through 3 1/3 innings at Houston his last time out. White Sox are 4-1 in their last five games vs. a left-handed starter.
The White Sox are 5-2 in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record and Chris Sale is a fantastic 7-1 with a 2.33 ERA in nine road starts this season while holding opponents to a .208 batting average. With two teams struggling at the plate, going with the stronger pitcher is the obvious move IMO.
Marc Lawrence
Minnesota t Detroit
Play: Detroit -130
Edges - Tigers: Matt Boyd 3.86 ERA home as opposed to 8.50 ERA away this season. Twins: Ricky Nolasco 0-2 with 5.98 ERA last two team starts versus Detroit; and 1-7 team starts versus A.L. Central foes this season. With the Tigers having won the last six games in a row in this series, look for more of the same this evening. We recommend a 1* play on Detroit.
Larry Ness
Minnesota vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit
Minnesota lost 6-1 to Cleveland on Sunday, dropping two of the three games over the weekend. The AL-worst Minnesota Twins have fared surprisingly well against some of the league's best teams this season, going a combined 10-11 against AL division leaders Baltimore (0-5), Cleveland (5-4) and Texas (5-2). However, the same cannot be said about their ability to win inside their own division, outside of the Indians. Minnesota is 2-19 vs Kansas City, Detroit and the Chicago White Sox.
The Twins continue their quest for their first victory over the Tigers this year tonight in Detroit, in the opener of a three-game series. More bad news comes in the fact that the Twins have shown little ability to win on the road going an AL-worst 13-29 (minus-$1046). Ricky Nolasco (4-7, 5.22 ERA) gets the start for the Twins and served up an interesting quote. "Obviously I'm not too happy about my (5.22) ERA. At the same time, I'm healthy," he told the St. Paul Pioneer Press. "I've been able to make every start. I've been able to give us a chance to stay in the game. That's the job of a starting pitcher." I’ll let you make the call on that one.
Matt Boyd (0-2, 5.77 ERA) gets the nod for Detroit but is winless since notching his only big-league victory last August. The Tigers are 2-4 in his six starts in 2016 and going back to his LONE win on August 5 of 2015, the Tigers are 5-10 over his 15 starts.
Boyd is filling in for the injured Daniel Norris and it’s difficult to make a strong case for him. However, Nolasco is no better and the Twins’ record vs division opponents (see above) and on the road (again, see above) speaks for itself.
Power Sports
Tampa Bay vs. Colorado
Pick: Colorado
I'm not sure that the thin air at Coors Field is even enough to save this sorry Rays offense. They are dead last in the American League in terms of runs scored this year, so losing the designated hitter certainly will do them no favors in this series. Meanwhile, the Rockies may have been shutout Sunday, costing them a series sweep in Atlanta, but their offense should be just fine back at home. I like Colorado in the opener of this Interleague series.
Tyler Anderson is a name to keep an eye on. The Rockies rookie southpaw looks capable of doing what you need to do to be a somewhat successful pitcher in this hitter-friendly park and that's strike batters out. He has a 32-6 KW rate in 35 2/3 IP, which is very good, especially considering four of his six starts have come here at home. Given that Anderson has allowed 3 ER or less in EVERY start, a 2-4 TSR seems grossly unfair.
Meanwhile, I'm not sure if there's is anything to like with TB starter Drew Smyly. Over his L3 starts, he is 0-3 w/ a 9.19 ERA and 2.042 WHIP. So, it's not as if he's deserving of a win anytime soon. He's obviously not very familiar with the venue and facing a lineup averaging 6.3 rpg here certainly poses some very real problems. Smyly is 2-10 in his 17 starts. Rockies are just the better team here and should be in a loftier price range.
Jim Feist
Rangers at Angels
Pick: Over
Texas brings a top 10 offense into Anaheim, a good offensive park. The Over is 9-4-2 when the Rangers play Game 1 of a series, plus the team is on a 7-3-1 run over the total. Starter A.J. Griffin is off a 15-5 loss to Minnesota while LA starter Nick Tropeano has allowed 97 base runners in 66 innings. The Over is 6-2 in the Angels last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
ChaseDiamond
Marlins at Phillies
Play: Phillies
I love this pitching match-up as the 49-42 Marlins take on the 43-50 Phillies. Marlins are off a big win over the Cards which we backed now have to travel to play one of the worse teams in Baseball right now. Aaron Nola started the year off great but has not been good leading into the break. Nola was given an extended break and I believe will have his best stuff tonight. He is a very good pitcher that being said Jose Fernandez is one of the best in the league with a ultra low 2.52 ERA. Phillies are 6-4 last 10 and have been playing better ball I love all the plus money in this game great value here.
Dave Essler
Detroit -140
Here we have a pitcher in Nolasco that's allowed 15 home runs in 108 innings pitched, and allowed 127 hits. Interestingly enough his WHIP is "only" 1.37 because he usually doesn't walk many. That's a goof thing (pitching more to contact) against a team like Detroit that doesn't take a lot of pitches. That theory is born out by the fact that he gave up five runs in five innings to the Tigers at home earlier this season. What's really interesting is that from 2013-2015 he started five games against Detroit, lasting a total of 27 innings - but WALKING a dozen - by FAR more than any other team he faced in that time span (yes, I accounted for the other division rivals he sees more often). At Comerica park he's thrown 19 innings in four starts and allowed 24 hits in that same time span (which doesn't take into consideration THIS years beating). This is also a huge series for Detroit in that they've got these three games before heading out to Chicago and Boston, so they can perhaps get closer to the Indians, who are obviously on the road AT Kansas City. The Tigers' pen has been "better" at home (on the season) while the Twins' pen has a 5.26 season-long ERA on the road, with exactly THREE saves and seven blown saves. Now,Matt Boyd is certainly hittable, but it IS the Twins on the road where they are 13-29. They've seen Boyd collectively for a total of 12 at bats with one hit - so although the truth may lie somewhere in between what Boyd IS and what the Twins ARE - we're still at HOME with a better bullpen and clearly the more potent offense. I am clearly considering the over in this one - almost as a "if the Tigers get five" type of bet.
OSKEIM SPORTS
Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies -133
Colorado rookie Tyler Anderson takes the mound with an impressive 3.03 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over four starts this season. The talented southpaw also possesses very strong underlying metrics, including a 3.33 FIP, 2.94 xFIP and a 3.18 SIERA over 35.2 innings of work. Interestingly, Anderson has excelled in the thin air of Coors Field where curve balls don't curve and sinkers don't sink. Indeed, the 26-year-old owns a 2.62 ERA, a 2.57 FIP and a 2.60 xFIP in 24.0 innings pitched at home.
Anderson also owns a 24.5% K% (9.75 K/9), a 3.8% BB% (1.50 BB/9), a 20.8% K-BB% and a 0.75 HR/9 rate at home despite having an incredibly unsustainable .392 BABIP. I also like the fact the underrated lefty boasts an elite 59.8% ground ball rate. Anderson's changeup is inducing swing-and-misses on more than a third of swings, while his cutter is inducing ground balls almost a 70% of the time.
According to Alex Chamberlain of FanGraphs, if the season ended today, Anderson would own the highest single-season ground ball rate of any Colorado pitcher since 2002 when Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) began tracking that data. Anderson should have continued success against a scuffling Tampa Bay lineup that is average just 3.9 runs per game this season (.300 OBP; .709 OPS), including 3.7 runs per game in interleague play (.312 OBP; .729 OPS) and 2.3 runs over its last seven games (.270 OBP; .611 OPS).
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay left-hander Drew Smyly has grossly underperformed this season as evidenced by his 5.47 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Smyly is also 2-4 with a 6.02 ERA and 1.51 WHIP on the road, 1-7 with a 5.07 ERA and 1.23 WHIP at night, 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.27 WHIP versus National League foes and 0-3 with a 9.19 ERA and 2.04 WHIP in his last three outings. The struggling 27-year-old has allowed six runs in three consecutive starts for the first time in his career and is 0-6 in his last nine starts overall.
Smyly's 4.46 FIP, 4.08 xFIP and 3.75 SIERA suggest that he hasn't pitched as poorly as his surface statistics suggest, and he has also been incredibly unlucky with men on base (63.2% LOB%). The southpaw also owns a solid 25.2% K% and 6.3% BB%, but a 1.79 home run rate has contributed to his poor overall numbers. Let's further note that Smyly posted a 6.85 ERA and a 5.10 FIP in June, together with a 2.66 HR/9 rate!
The Rays are 0-4 in his last four starts overall and 1-4 in his last five road outings. Tampa Bay is also a money-burning 6-18 in its last 24 road games, 7-21 in its last 28 games on grass, 5-13 in its last 18 interleague games versus left-handed starters and 15-37 in its last 52 games overall, including 2-11 in its last thirteen. With Colorado averaging 6.3 runs per game at home (.371 OBP; .882 OPS) and 7.0 runs per game in interleague play (.355 OBP; .866 OPS), take the Rockies and invest with confidence.
ASA
Oakland A’s +125
The Astros start Michael Fiers who has been great at home this season but has struggled on the road. Houston is 2-4 in his road starts and he has compiled a 6.12 ERA in those outings. Though Fiers has a respectable ERA in his last 3 starts that stat is deceiving because he has allowed 18 hits in 13 and 2 / 3 innings over his last 3 starts. Fiers gave up 3 homers in his most recent start and Oakland comes into this game having scored 16 runs in their 3 games since the All Star Break. The A’s will have Kendall Graveman toeing the rubber this evening and he has a 2.97 ERA in his home starts this year. The last time he faced the Astros he gave up only 2 earned runs in 8 innings at Houston earlier this month. Fiers has a 4.50 ERA in his last two starts at Oakland. The Athletics have won 6 straight Graveman starts. The Astros have been held to 2 runs or less in 3 of their last 4 games against the A’s. We’ll grab the home dog value with the underdog A’s in this one.
Vegas Butcher
Colorado Rockies -139
When you have a pitcher like Smyly, with a 1.8 HR/9 rate, 13 HR’s allowed in the last 9 outings, and an ERA of over 6 on the road, you have to consider fading him at this price. When you realize that he’s going up against my #6 ranked starter in Tyler Anderson, and that decision becomes even more appealing.
Chris Jordan
Real quick here with this one, as like the Baltimore Orioles over the New York Yankees, and it's the pitchers that sold it for me. I've always been a fan of Kevin Gausman - since his days of being drafted by Los Angeles Dodgers. He opted to go to LSU, and then was drafted by the Baltimore Orioles.
Gausman is one of about 10 pitchers in the bigs who can touch 100 miles per hour, and he's really gotten a grasp of poise on the mound. One thing he loves to do, is pitch against the Yankees.
Though the righty went 1-6 with a 4.15 ERA in the first half, he is 2.22 ERA in 13 games (seven starts) against the Yankees in his young career. The O's specifically wanted him starting against the stripes, so he'll be at his best.
As for Ivan Nova, he has gone 3-4 with a 6.34 ERA in his last nine outings. He faced the Orioles on June 4, and was pelted for five runs on seven hits, including two homers.
Take the road chalk and list both.
4* ORIOLES
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the Astros over the A's.
Oakland starter Kendall Graveman has won a career-high 4 straight starts, but he is facing a Houston team that has won 6 of the past 8 in the series, and comes into this series fresh off 2 of 3 wins in Seattle, and has taken 18 of their last 24 games overall.
Mike Fiers will counter with a 6-3 season mark, and he is facing an Oakland team that has dropped 5 of their last 9 games overall.
I say the hard-charging 'Stros take the series opener as they cool off the surging Graveman.
Play Houston on Monday as your comp winner.
2* HOUSTON
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 84-73 run with free picks: Rangers at ANGELS (-120).
The STORYLINE in this game today - My free winner takes us to Anaheim, where I'm playing the streaking Angels, who came out of the All-Star Break with three straight victories. Though they're 14.5 games back in the American League West, they've won seven of 10 and could use a nice spark.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - The key to tonight will be Texas' schedule. The Rangers just dealt with the almighty Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. And while I know Texas won the series finale yesterday - I gave them to you as a free winner, cause it was far too easy with Cole Hamels - they left Chitown and are now in Anaheim, playing in a later game than they're used to. The Rangers will be tired for this rivalry series opener.
BOTTOM LINE is - Don't sweat listing pitchers here, as I'm not worried about either A.J. Griffin or Nick Tropeano. Both have been good in their own respect, but if you want to talk turkey with these two, it's important to note the Rangers' A.J. Griffin is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in four starts since his return from the disabled list with right shoulder inflammation.
4* ANGELS
Scott Delaney
My free winner for today is on the Colorado Rockies against the Tampa Bay Rays in Interleague action. And in this one I want you listing both scheduled starters: Tyler Anderson and Drew Smyly.
There is no doubt in my mind who the better pitcher will be tonight, despite knowing who might be the better team. And in reality, just because the Tampa Bay Rays are probably in the tougher division, the Colorado Rockies do have the better record and have been looking better than the Rays.
Tampa Bay arrives from home, where they knocked off the Baltimore Orioles yesterday, but it has still lost eight of 10 going back to the first half of the seaosn, and is just 16-26 on the road this season.
Plus, they hand the ball to Smyly, who has struggled since April, when opened the season with a 2.60 ERA in 5 starts. Since then, he has a 6.99 ERA and has allowed 15 HRs in 12 starts.
I'd rather take Colorado with Anderson, who earned his first career win in his last start, holding the Phillies to two runs over six innings while stroking his first career home run. He has not allowed more than three runs in any of his starts this season, and will take advantage of weary traveling team.
4* ROCKIES
Brad Wilton
My Monday comp play release is the Rockies over the Rays.
Tampa Bay did pick up a win on Sunday, a rare win at that, as the Rays had lost their prior 8 games!
It was just the Rays second win in their last 14 games, and 4th overall in their last 28 games.
Cannot back a team that wins as infrequently as the Rays do, that is for sure.
Colorado is just 2 games under .500 at home for the season, and pitcher Tyler Anderson has looked pretty good at times this season.
Drew Smyly is just 2-10 on the year with an over 5 season ERA.
Go with the Rockies at home to dump the dismal Rays.
3* COLORADO