Ray Monohan
Tampa Bay / Colorado Under 11.5
Playing the Under at Coors Field is always a tough play, but when the matchup aligns, it can have value. Monday is one of those cases. Tampa Bay and Colorado both send out quality pitchers here, who have been good lately.
Tyler Anderson for the Rockies has not allowed more than 3 runs in any of his first major league starts. Anderson allowed just 2 earned runs to the Blue Jays inside Coors Field earlier this season, the only American League team he's faced. Drew Smyly is facing Colorado for the first time in his career and has been on the unfortunate end of bad run support this season.
Smyly is also in his audition phase with a lot of scouts coming to check him out. This will be a nice spot for him to be on his top game.
Some trends to consider. Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 overall. Under is 5-1 in Andersons last 6 starts on grass.
If both pitchers can find the groove early, this is going to be a quick paced game and give the Under a solid shot.
Brandon Lee
Yankees +106
New York is worth a look at this great price at home as a small dog against the Orioles. The Yankees got a huge win last night over rival Boston to avoid getting swept and I look for them to carry over that momentum in this one. The Orioles will send out Kevin Gausman, who is 0-5 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.521 WHIP in 9 road starts. Baltimore is also struggling at the plate right now, as they are only averaging 3.7 runs/game over their last 7. Orioles are just 3-12 in Guaman's last 15 road starts with a money line of +125 to -125.
Jack Jones
Houston Astros -132
The Houston Astros are one of the hottest teams in baseball. They have gone 33-14 in their last 47 games overall and are closing in on the Texas Rangers atop the AL West. Look for them to take down the lowly Oakland A's (40-52) again today.
Mike Fiers has gone 6-3 with a 4.35 ERA over 16 starts this season. Fiers has fared pretty well in his career against the A's, posting a 3.28 ERA and 1.135 WHIP over four starts. Look for that domination to continue here Monday.
The A's counter with Kendall Graveman, who is 5-6 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.426 WHIP in 17 starts this season. Graveman hasn't enjoyed facing the Astros, posting a 5.24 ERA and 1.388 WHIP in four career starts against them.
Oakland is 0-10 (-11.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an excellent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better this season. Houston is 5-0 in Fiers' last five starts. The A's are 3-7 in Graveman's last 10 home starts and 3-8 in his last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Jimmy Boyd
Rockies -129
Colorado is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Rays on Monday. The Rockies just took 2 of 3 at Atlanta over the weekend, while Tampa Bay's struggles continued with another series loss against the Orioles. The Rays are just 16-26 on the road this season and will be a big disadvantage in this one with the edge the Rockies have on the mound.
Colorado gives the ball to Tyler Anderson, who has pitched very well since joining the rotation. Anderson has a 1-3 record, but owns a very solid 3.03 ERA in 6 starts. He's also been able to throw well at Coors Field, which is no easy task, posting a 2.62 ERA in 4 starts. Tampa Bay counters with Drew Smyly, who is having a miserable 2016 season. Smyly is 2-10 with a 5.47 ERA in 17 starts and owns a 6.02 ERA in 9 road starts and a 9.19 ERA in his last 3 outings.
Tampa Bay is a mere 2-8 in their last 10 interleauge road games against a left-handed starter, while Colorado is 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss and 4-1 in their last 5 at home against a left-handed starter.
Dave Price
Chicago White Sox -136
The Chicago White Sox are hungry for a victory after losing 4 straight games coming in. Ace Chris Sale is here to the rescue and should shut down this Seattle lineup. Sale is 14-3 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in 18 starts this year, and 7-1 with a 2.33 ERA and 0.959 WHIP in 9 road starts. Wade LeBlanc has only made 3 starts this season for the Mariners. He gave up 5 runs in 3 1/3 innings in his last start against the Astros, resulting in an 8-9 loss. Sale has never lost to the Mariners, going 4-0 (5-0 money line) with a 2.82 ERA and 0.913 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts against them.
Brandon Shively
Phillies +185
The one thing keeping me from releasing this game as a Premium pick is the uncertainty about Aaron Nola for the Phillies. I know Nola has one of the game's best curveballs, but fell in a rut after starting the season strong. The team website says that Nola has been given extra time for rest and that he has figured out the mechanical flaws that were ailing him. I have the feeling he pitches a gem tonight but need to see for myself before making this a 10* play. For that reason, I will tread lightly and recommend a 1* wager on the Phillies ML and another 1* wager on the Phillies +1.5 runs on the Runline.
For the Marlins, they will send Jose Fernandez out who is a fan favorite to bet on. I like Fernandez when he pitches at Marlins Ballpark, but on the road it is a different story and especially when installed as a road favorite as the Marlins are 2-8 in his career as a road favorite. Digging deeper, they are 0-4 when Fernandez is listed as a -150 or greater road favorite as he is tonight.
The Phillies have won 69% of the last 53 meetings in Philly so we have a strong historical edge on our side along with the fact that the Phillies are 8-0 in their last 8 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game and 7-0 in their last 7 games following a loss.
This is a great low risk high reward wager tonight. (1* Phillies Moneyline / 1* Phillies +1.5 Runs Runline)..I advise playing both for the same amount.
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota +135 over DETROIT
Ricky Nolasco owns an ugly 5+ ERA after 18 starts but he is worth a look because his overall skills are quite good. Nolasco is averaging 7 K’s/9 while only issuing 1.8 BB’s/9. He has a strong first-pitch strike rate of 64% and a decent groundball rate of 45%. Nolasco has been stung by an unlucky 43% hit rate with runners on base, which is the highest mark in MLB. As it regresses, so will his ERA. Nolasco is giving the Twinkies quality innings and that’s good enough for us in this one but let's forget Ricky Nolasco for a second because this wager has nothing to do with backing him. There are some games that simply must be played based on the tremendous value being offered and this is one of them.
You see, Matt Boyd is a big risk every time he takes the mound. His chances of losing are greater than winning, as his career 1-8 record and 6.87 ERA in 18 starts will attest to. In six starts this year, Boyd has zero performances of the quality variety. He went 1-6 with a 7.53 ERA in 57 innings split between Toronto and Detroit last year. Prior, Boyd excelled across two minor-league levels but MLB hitters are wiser to this finesse lefty's tricks, feasting on his extreme fly-ball profile and low velocity. This season, Boyd has bounced between Detroit and Triple-A Toledo. He has a 5.89 xERA in seven appearances. With Jordan Zimmermann and Daniel Norris still on the DL, the Tigers need arms to get them through this stretch and Boyd will provide that. There is no reason to wade into this minefield and spot a price like this. Twins are still live and we’re still on them.
N.Y. Mets +137 over CHICAGO
Jon Lester’s pedigree speaks for itself. Over the past decade or so, Lester has remained one of the most reliable and consistent starting pitchers in the game. There is no question that he’s capable of throwing a complete gem here but that’s something we are not concerned about. Our mission is to find overvalued teams/pitchers and let the chips fall where they may. For what it’s worth, Lester has a 6.89/4.76 ERA/xERA split over his last five starts with a 1.56 WHIP.
The Cubs sizzling start that saw them playing above .700 for the first two months of the season was unsustainable and now they’re playing barely above .600 (.604). However, the market still sees them as this powerhouse of a team when in fact they are not. Chicago is batting .251 over the past 40 games, which ranks 23rd out of 30 teams. The Cubs rank in that range in many other key offensive stats too. Chicago’s offense struggles miserably against quality starters and they’ll face one here in Steven Matz.
Matz entered 2016 with a great deal of fanfare following a brief but splendid six-start 2015 MLB debut but he also entered in the shadows of Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey. He has been impressive in 2016, sporting a 3.38 ERA in 96 innings and things figure to get even better because Matz has displayed tremendous skills. His already respectable strikeout rate has been kicked up a notch in 2016, thanks in part to increased usage of his slider (13% swing and miss rate). He rarely threw the slider in 2015 (2%), but he has thrown it 12% of the time in 2016 and it has been his second best pitch in terms of swinging strikes. Matz’s superb control (23 walks in 96 innings) comes fully supported by Ball% and first-pitch strike rate. The groundball tilt he showed in the minors has carried over nicely to MLB. His 53% elite groundball rate has helped him keep the ball in the yard (0.3 hr/9 in 380.2 IP in minors; 0.9 hr/9 in 132 MLB IP). Matz has thoroughly dominated right-handed batters too. It’s tough not to get excited about taking back a tag like this with Matz on the hill. If this ticket gets ripped up, so be it but Matz is a great bet to remain highly effective the rest of the season. This is a young starter who knows how to pitch.
GoodFella
Tigers TT Over 5.5
The Twins give the ball to Ricky Nolasco this evening. He's been smacked around this season, sporting a very high (5.22 ERA) for the year. These Tigers have had great success vs him over the years. Current Tigers are hitting a whopping (.383 AVG) and with a (.944 OPS). That is with 146 plate appearances, as these Tigers have seen Ricky a lot. I fully expect the Tigers to get to Nolasco eventually & then we get into that Twins bullpen for the remainder of the game. I look for these Tigers to rough up Ricky again here this evening, and I am on their Team Total going over the 5.5 in this spot.
Micah Roberts
Astros at A's
Play: A's
The Astros have been on a roll and are on their way to eventually winning the division and they have won five straight behind Michael Fiers, but he's priced a little too high today. While Fiers has been helped many times by Houston bats, Kendall Graveman has been doing most of his winning lately because of him being so good. The A's have won his last six starts and he's allowed one run or less in three of them and two runs or less in two of them, including a 3-2 win at Houston in his last start. A's to win is the play.