Free Picks for Monday, July 24th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
PIRATES VS. GIANTS
PLAY: PIRATES -150
No need to go into great detail about the state of the San Francisco Giants. This season has been a disaster, and the team has the look of a squad that can’t wait for this all to end.
The Pirates got cooled off the last couple of days at Colorado. But the Bucs have been showing some life lately and they’re still very much in the NL Central race, currently only three games out of first place.
I don’t expect the Pirates to be buyers at the approaching deadline, because that’s just not what this organization does. So while they’re very much alive in the divisional race, I don’t honestly look at the Bucs as serious contenders.
Nevertheless, Pittsburgh has an opportunity to gain ground the next few days if they can win this series with the Giants. I would definitely expect the Pirates to be taking this opponent very seriously. Surely the Pirates haven’t forgotten what took place in Pittsburgh at the start of this month. The Bucs were swept at home by San Francisco. Among the victims was Gerrit Cole, who got absolutely ripped in an ugly 13-5 loss.
Payback time begins tonight and given how well series sweep avengers have done this season, I’m willing to lay a little more than I usually like to tonight. I’m on the Pirates.
Ben Burns
Pirates vs. Giants
Play: Over 8
Two struggling starters with big aspirations before the season began collide on Monday night and all signs point to a classic “slug-fest” in my opinion. The Pirates turn to Gerrit Cole (7-7, 4.18 ERA) who struck out ten over seven innings in a no-decision against the Brewers on Wednesday. It was Coles’ only double-digit strikeout game this year and note that he’s been particularly average on the road this year with a 4.45 ERA. Johnny Cueto (6-7, 4.59) counters for the Giants, he returns after a short stint on the DL with a blister issue. Cueto has been nothing special this year and owns a pedestrian 2-2, 4.35 ERA record in front of the home town crowd to this point. I don’t think either starter will last long, ultimately resulting in a higher-scoring affair. Consider the over.
Marc Lawrence
Rockies vs. Cardinals
Play: Rockies +130
Edges - Rockies: Senzatela 7-1 career team starts at night… Cardinals: Leake 0-3 L3 team starts during July, and 0-2 L2 team starts vs Colorado. With Leake in rocky KW form with 7 BBs and 5 Ks his last three 3 starts, we recommend a 1* play on Colorado.
Andrew Marchenko
NK GOK Gabela vs. Zeljeznicar
Play: Zeljeznicar -1
Zeljeznicar has lost to AIK in Europe League and now they have only one focus - Bosnia League. In 3 previous home games against Gabela, Zeljeznicar won 5-0, 3-0, and 2-0. Everything lays on their part of weights today too. This win will be very important for the team in front of the home crowd in order to take some kind of a rematch for the loose in the Europe League
Mike Lundin
Astros vs. Phillies
Play: Astros -155
The Houston Astros own the best road record in baseball at 35-12 while the Philadelphia Phillies are just 18-26 home at Citizens Bank Park.
Brad Peacock (8-1, 2.49 ERA) will take the ball for Houston Monday night. He is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in two career starts against the Phillies, but he's enjoying a great season, so I wouldn't read too much into past results. Peacock has posted a 1.82 ERA during a five-start winning streak.
The Phillies hand the ball to Vince Velasquez (2-5, 5.14 ERA) who has been roughed up plenty this season, particularly at home where he's 1-3 with a 6.26 ERA in five starts. Velasquez will be facing Houston for the first time, and I don't think they'll show the former Astro any mercy.
The Phillies are 2-8 in Velasquez's last 10 home starts. The Astros are 5-0 in Peacock's last five road starts.
Frank Jordan
Atlanta vs. Arizona
Play: Atlanta +170
Atlanta isn't having as good of year as Arizona, but still holding their own around the .500 mark and have 6-6 RA Dickey on the mound to match zeros with Zach Greinke who is 11-4 on the year. Atlanta is 4-2 in Dickey's last six starts as Dickey has allowed just eight runs in those six starts. Dickey is pitching well in July sporting a 2.42 ERA and an outing against the Diamondbacks this year allowing just a single run over six innings. Dickey has pitched well in his career against Arizona with a 2-1 mark in four starts and ERA 1.61 and in Arizona Dickey is 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA. Greinke is back to his stud self with a sub three ERA and Arizona has won six of his last eight starts. Greinke is 9-0 in 11 home starts this season with a 2.41 ERA. Against Atlanta Greinke is 2-1 in seven starts with a 3.07 ERA. Look for runs to be at a minimum as the Braves win 2-1 behind a stellar outing from Dickey and Greinke making a mistake with a guy on in the middle innings to Matt Adams being the difference.
Jim Feist
Reds at Indians
Pick: Over
Cincinnati picks up the DH for this series, stuck with their bad pitching staff. Tim Adleman (5-7, 4.96 ERA) is on the mound with a 1-4 road record, 5-2-1 over the total when he starts on the road. The Over is 5-1-1 in the Reds last 7 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record. Cleveland is on a 10-4-1 run over the total at home. Starter Josh Tomlin (6-9, 5.74 ERA) is allowing batters to hit .310 off him. He has a 6.02 ERA at home where batters hit .327 and the Over is 26-12-1 in Tomlin's last 39 home starts.
Larry Ness
Boston vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle -147
The Boston Red Sox lost 3-2 to the Angels on Sunday and are now just 6-10 since their six-game winning streak was snapped back on July 5. However, the Red Sox still lead the AL East by 2 1/2 games over the Yankees with the Rays sitting 3 1/2 games back. Boston is in Seattle tonight for the opener of a three-game series against the Mariners,
who have dropped four of six since beginning the second half with four straight wins. The Mariners now find themselves 2 1/2 games behind Kansas City for the AL's second wild-card spot after losing three of four to the New York Yankees over the weekend
Eduardo Rodriguez (4-2, 3.66 ERA) will start tonight for Boston and James Paxton (9-3, 3.05 ERA) for Seattle. Rodriguez permitted three runs on six hits and four walks while striking out eight in 5.1 innings of a no decision last Monday against Toronto ()Blue Jays won 4-3). It was his first start since June 1, after struggling in three rehab outings at Pawtucket, going 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA. However, Rodriguez was masterful in throwing six scoreless innings versus the Mariners back on May 26, moving him to 1-0 with a 0.73 ERA in two starts against Seattle (team is 2-0).
Paxton won his fourth straight start Wednesday at Houston, allowing just one run on six hits while striking out seven over seven innings of a 4-1 win. Paxton had a strong start to 2017 but before his recent winning streak, was 1-3 with a 7.20 ERA in a five-start stretch (Seattle was 2-3). That seems to be in the past now, as Paxton owns a 2.05 ERA and 28 strikeouts in 26.1 innings during his winning streak. Paxton has given up one run on nine hits and two walks over a pair of eight-inning outings against the Red Sox, going 1-0 with an 0.56 ERA (team is just 1-1, though).
The Red Sox seem stuck in neutral since just before the break and just maybe, Paxton is finally ready to deliver on his promised potential with a strong second-half finish. At least for tonight, that's my bet.
Big Al
Houston vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Houston -138
he Astros have the best record in the American League, and were my preseason pick (at 10-1 odds) to win the World Series. Houston has what would seem like an insurmountable lead in the AL West, but the next several weeks are going to test them like no other time this season. The 'Stros will be without their young phenom All Star shortstop, Carlos Correa, for at least six weeks (torn thumb ligament) and they're still without their Cy Young starter, Dallas Keuchel. It's times like this that the Astros are glad to have guys like LHP Brad Peacock on the roster. The former 41st round draft pick of the Nats was all but forgotten coming into this season, but thanks to some unfortunate pitching injuries, Peacock has gotten plenty of chances to start and he has made the most of them. In 22 appearances, Peacock is 8-1 with a 2.49 ERA and a ridiculous 12.2 strikeout rate. In his 10 starts, Peacock is 6-1 with a 2.92 ERA in just over 52 innings. The 'Stros are 5-0 in Peacock's last five starts.
Mike Anthony
Pittsburgh vs. San Francisco
Play: Pittsburgh -145
Pittsburgh has an opportunity to gain ground the next few days if they can win this series with the Giants. I would definitely expect the Pirates to be taking this opponent very seriously. Surely the Pirates haven’t forgotten what took place in Pittsburgh at the start of this month. The Bucs were swept at home by San Francisco so this series has some major revenge. Among the victims was Gerrit Cole, who got absolutely ripped in an ugly 13-5 loss.
Jack Jones
Twins vs. Dodgers
Play: Over 9½
Expect plenty of runs in tonight's game between the Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Dodgers. Both teams are throwing their worst starters in Bartolo Colon and Hyun-Jin Ryu, respectively. Double-digit runs shouldn't be a problem in this one.
It's unbelievable that the Twins actually picked up Colon midseason. He has gone 2-9 with an 8.19 ERA and 1.791 WHIP in 14 starts this season. He is 0-3 with a 13.88 ERA and 2.399 WHIP in his last three starts. The Twins surely could have found someone better to help them in their wild card chase.
Ryu has struggled to a 3-6 record with a 4.46 ERA and 1.442 WHIP in 13 starts this season. He has already allowed 15 homers in 68 2/3 innings as the long ball continue to be his Achilles' heel. He has allowed 11 of those homers in 32 2/3 innings at Dodger Stadium.
Colon is 8-1 to the OVER when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. The OVER is 6-1 in Twins last seven interleague games vs. a left-handed starter. The OVER is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings.
Sleepyj
Marlins vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers
It's crazy to think the Rangers are 17 games back in the division but still right in the thick of the wild-card record wise....Rangers hit a snag a few games back, but have now won 3 in a row...A nice sweep for them against the Rays should get them going...They are coming back home for the 1st game in a while, so that's a concern, but they could boost themselves here with a solid road stand....Perez goes for teh Rangers and he is tough to hit for teams that struggle against the LHP...Marlins don't hit the LHP all that well so it's an advantage for the Rangers here....Miami will go with Conley and his numbers are a bit scary...He's lost 4 of his last 6 outings and he's due to get bombed...That's kinda how he pitches..Pitches good one game, gets crushed the next...small trend, but should be noted.....Miami has lost 6 of the last 9 and the bats have been slow for the most part..Facing a LHP on the road spells trouble for a cold lineup.....Line is about right, but -145 seems to be correct in my eyes..Little bit of line value and the home team playing better baseball in the thick of the playoff chase..They still have life and a good team all around imo.
Bruce Marshall
Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Play; Tampa Bay -105
Three straight one-ruin losses to the Rangers have the Rays reeling, but the arrival of pitching-poor Baltimore ought to help tonight at the Trop. Kevin Gausman did toss 7 shutout innings the last time he faced TB n Jul 2, but still carries an ERA of 6.11 into St. Pete. Advantage Blake Snell and the Rays tonight.
Scott Rickenbach
A's vs. Blue Jays
Play: A's +146
No team in the majors has fewer road wins than the A's this season. That said, it may seem tough to take them away from home but the fact is, the Blue Jays have a losing record at home this season and they've been slumping. Toronto is over-priced here when you consider that the Jays have lost 7 of their last 9 games and the fact that Francisco Lirano is also slumping badly. The Blue Jays southpaw has a 9.31 ERA and a 2.48 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Craig Smith is making just his 3rd start for Oakland this season but he has a 2.77 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in his two starts. Liriano has allowed 7 runs (6 earned) in the 10 innings spanning his last two starts versus the A's. They'll do some damage again here while the Blue Jays lineup is facing Craig Smith for the first time so this is a big edge for the Athletics hurler. Toronto is an ugly 24-37 in night games this season and also the Jays have an ugly 7-12 record as a home fave in the -125 to -175 range so they've cost their backers big this season in spots like this one. Look for that to prove to be the case again tonight.