John Martin
Astros vs. Phillies
Play: Astros -139
The Houston Astros have been the most profitable road team in baseball this season at 35-12 and +21.2 units of profit. I'm shocked they're not bigger favorites here Monday against the worst team in baseball in the Philadelphia Phillies, who are 34-62 on the year. Brad Peacock has been dominant at 6-2 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 10 starts this season with 71 K's in 52 1/3 innings. The Astros are 8-2 in his 10 starts this year, including a perfect 5-0 in his five road starts. Vincent Velasquez is 1-3 with a 6.26 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in five home starts this season. The Astros are 15-3 in their last 18 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Phillies are 5-15 in Velasquez's last 20 starts overall, including 2-8 in his last 10 home starts.
Jimmy Boyd
White Sox vs. Cubs
Play: Cubs -1½
Chicago continues it's impressive play out of the All-Star break. The Cubs have won 8 of their last 9 and are now percentage points ahead of the Brewers in the NL Central. Chicago can smell blood and aren't going to overlook their cross-town rivals. The Cubs will be adding/welcoming back starter Kyle Hendricks, who has looked like the guy who nearly won the NL Cy Young in his rehab work. I expect him to pitch well here and for the Cubs' bats to be locked in to get him a win in his first start since the beginning of June.
Good chance they can put up a big number here, as the White Sox will send out Miguel Gonzalez, who is lucky to still be in a rotation. Gonzalez is 4-9 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.523 WHIP in 14 starts. He's got a miserable 1-6 record and 5.93 ERA over 8 home starts and has a 7.47 ERA and 1.978 WHIP in his last 3 outings.
Dave Price
White Sox vs. Cubs
Play: Cubs -1½
The Chicago Cubs are 8-1 since the All-Star Break and appear determined to win the NL Central. They have already erased their deficit and are currently tied with the Milwaukee Brewers atop the division. Now they get to play the struggling Chicago White Sox, who are 0-9 in their last 9 games overall. Kyle Hendricks led the NL in ERA last season and is 4-3 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 11 starts this year. He makes his much-anticipated return from the DL and should get a nice warm reception from home fans here Monday. Miguel Gonzalez has been shelled this season, going 4-9 with a 5.31 ERA in 14 starts, 1-6 with a 5.93 ERA in 8 road starts and 0-3 with a 7.47 ERA in his last 3 starts. The White Sox are 0-10 in Gonzalez's last 10 starts against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%). They are losing these games by 2.7 RPG on average.
SPORTS WAGERS
Ottawa +3 over TORONTO
It wasn't easy but the Redblacks got on the board with a 24-19 win over the Alouettes last Wednesday. While their record is just 1-3-1, a closer look shows us that the Reblacks have been in every game they've played this season and could easily be 5-0. Ottawa twice had a chance to beat Calgary, the league’s best team, to kick off the season. In their three defeats, the Redblacks have lost by just a combined seven points including a 26-25 loss to the Argonauts in Week 3. Trevor Harris and the Redblacks offense have been on point all season long. Harris leads the league with 1755 passing yards and 10 touchdowns with just two interceptions. Harris is the former understudy to Ricky Ray in Toronto, which adds another layer to this battle of Ontario.
It's been 11 days since the Argonauts last took the field. On that night in Winnipeg, the Argos lost 33-25. Ricky Ray was a very average by completing 27-of-46 passes for no touchdowns and two interceptions. Aside from his career day Week 1 against the Ti-Cats, Ray has looked every bit of his 37 years. Ray has just four TDS to three picks. He has logged a ton of miles in the CFL and Father Time is undefeated. Veteran receiver S.J. Green turned back the clock with Ray in Week 1 but he was awful against the Bombers dropping sure touchdowns left and right. Head coach Marc Trestman might be an offensive guru but his two best weapons are long for the retirement home. There is no such thing as home field advantage for the Argos. Their move to BMO Field has been a total bust and if it was possible, the atmosphere might be worse than it was at cavernous Rogers Centre. At least when they shared a home with the Blue Jays, the Argos didn't have to compete with them for entertainment dollars as they will again tonight.
Since 2014, when the CFL expanded to nine teams, each club has had to play two games in one week to try and balance the schedule. Much has been made about the five day turnaround here for Ottawa. While it's not ideal, the Redblacks should be eager to get back on the field after finally getting off the snide with a W. Add the Argos recent domination over Ottawa, having won six of the last eight games between the two teams and there's some extra motivation for Harris and the Redblacks. The angle most will play here us that the Argos have been idle for 11 days and they’re going up against an Ottawa team that is playing its third game in those same 11 days. Trust us when we tell you that the oddsmakers had this info too. This game opened with the Argos as just a -1½ point home favorite. The Argos have only played the role of favorite once this season as -2 point chalk against the Lions and the Boatmen were blown out by double digits. For now, the only advantage the Argos have coming into this game is the discrepancy in days of rest and that is not enough to offset the difference in offensive talent. Ottawa getting inflated points is the prudent play.
SPORTS WAGERS
Cincinnati +166 over CLEVELAND
Tim Adleman (RHP) doesn't have much of a pedigree as a former Indy leaguer so his current 4.96 ERA will keep many bettors away. That said, Adleman's underlying skills have been pretty attractive: 8.6 K’s/9, 3.2 BB’s/9 and a 3.89 xERA, He's generating whiffs (12% swing and miss rate) and he has been especially effective against righties. The Indians are loaded with switch hitters (five in lineup) but most of them are natural left-handed batters with the exception of Francisco Lindor. Anyway, there is profit potential in Adleman’s arm and we’ll gladly put that to the test here.
Josh Tomlin has been going out there every five days for years. He’s 32 years old and has nearly 800 major-league innings under his belt. His strong first half last year was followed by a second half collapse. This year, Tomlin has not had a very good first half with a 5.74 ERA and a 4.94 xERA. His xERA shows skills are virtually unchanged. Tomlin has one of the league’s-best control-rate working for him but it’s not enough to slow down the HR barrage. With velocity, swing and miss rate, xERA and K-rate headed in the wrong direction, he's playing with fire and so would you be if you spotted this price with him. The Indians stock is high again after a tremendous weekend but this team loses regularly to weak pitchers, which makes us sellers again. Josh Tomlin is not good enough to be priced in this range.
Boston +136 over SEATTLE
James Paxton continues to pitch well in July (2.05 ERA) with plenty of swinging strikes (15%), a ground ball profile (48%) and consistent first-pitch strikes (63%). Paxton’s numbers are all legit and there is no doubt that he deserves to be favored here. However, we’re in the buy-low/sell-high business and Paxton’s stock is through the roof right now. The problem with Paxton is that he’s shown brilliance many times in the past but has never has been able to sustain such dominance over extended stretches before so why should we trust him now?
The Red Sox have hit LHP fairly well (.794 OPS-seventh) with the fewest swings and misses (15.7% K%) in the entire league in 2017. Boston’s offense can get us to the cashier’s booth here and so can their starter. After a 45-day layoff after a knee injury, Eduardo Rodriguez returned on July 17 against the Blue Jays and worked 5.1 innings. He walked four, struck out eight, allowed six hits and three runs before getting pulled after 111 pitches. This is now his second game back after the layoff and the 111 pitches that John Farrell let him throw assures us that Rodriguez is at full strength. He figures to be sharper in his second game back than he was in his first. Rodriguez has filthy stuff. He struck out 29 batters in his final 17 innings last season. He’s whiffed 73 batters in 65 innings this year and all of his underlying numbers reveal how difficult he is to square up on. Rodriguez’s 15% line-drive rate and K-rate are both elite, which is a deadly combination. Getting Boston at a price is almost always worth a bet and we’ll make no exceptions here.
Oakland +140 over TORONTO
Chris Smith is starting for the A’s and he’s a pitcher that’s not very recognizable. Smith has just 105 career MLB innings with all of them coming in relief with the exception of his last two appearances. Since being inserted into the rotation for just two starts, Smith has been sharp over 13 innings with a 2.77 ERA and a BB/K split of 3/8. He also has a 55% groundball rate. Despite a fastball that only reaches the upper 80’s and averages just 85 MPH, Smith is a control specialist who pitches to contact and relies on his ability to mix his offerings and set up hitters. He’s now 36-years-old and he has paid his dues. Perhaps starting has given him a new lease on life but he’s fit in nicely so far and he’ll now face a Toronto team that is laboring miserably. The Blue Jays return home from a 10-game trip in which they won three times. They return home a battered team after getting incinerated in Cleveland over the weekend. The last time the Jays played a home game, they lost 19-1 to the Astronauts. Frame of mind counts for something and right now, Toronto is not feeling great while the A’s come in here after defeating the Mets yesterday and having won five of their last nine games. Toronto and Oakland have identical 44-54 records. The A’s have been better against southpaws all season long, they’re swinging some decent bats right now and they’ll face a struggling lefty here in Francisco Liriano.
After the injury to Aaron Sanchez, Liriano moves up a day in the rotation to take what would have been Sanchez's next start. Liriano has had his own issues of late, leaving his last start with upper back and neck pain but with a total of 106 pitches across two abbreviated starts after the break, Toronto believes that he can still be effective with the short rest. Maybe, maybe not but we wouldn’t trust Liriano right now on two weeks rest left alone three full days. Liriano cannot throw strikes, which has resulted in a 1.73 WHIP this year and a 1.89 WHIP over his last five starts. When you allow that much traffic, runners are bound to cross the plate. Over his last five starts covering 22 frames, Liriano has walked 10 and struck out 13. His has an ERA/xERA split of 7.06/9.62 over that span, which is the league’s worst xERA over a five-game span this season. Whether he’s healthy or not does not matter, as Liriano’s skills have fallen off a cliff and there is not one sign that suggests it’s temporary.
Brandon Lee
Rockies vs. Cardinals
Play: Rockies +122
Colorado is worth a look here in Monday's series opener at St Louis. The Rockies come in having gone 6-1 in their last 7 and did so behind an offensive explosion. They take those hots bats against the struggling Mike Leak, who I think is still getting a lot of respect from his early season success. Back on Memorial Day this guy was leading the NL in ERA. It's been all downhill since, as Leake is a mere 1-6 with a 5.04 ERA in his last 10 starts. Colorado will send out Antonio Senzatela, who doesn't ahve great numbers. However, he is fresh after the team limited his innings in the first half and had great success against the Cardinals in an earlier start against them, giving up just 5 hits over 8 shutout innings. It only helps that St Louis figures to be without leadoff hitter Matt Carpenter.
Ray Monohan
A's vs. Blue Jays
Play: A's +146
The Oakland Athletics and the Toronto Blue Jays face off on Monday night, and with the Athletics as big underdogs they have a lot of value. On the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays is Francisco Liriano who has been terrible this year. He comes into this game with a 5-5 record and an ERA of 6.15.
In three of the last six games he has given up five runs and has really struggled as of late. In his last game he only made it 1.2 innings and gave up six hits and two earned runs. The Athletics should have no issue jumping all over him early, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get chased real early in this game too. On the mound for the Athletics is Chris Smith who has only made two starts this year, but has pitched well in both. He has gone a total 13 innings and only given up four runs.
Some trends to note. Blue Jays are 1-7 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. Blue Jays are 1-4 in Lirianos last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Bob Balfe
Astros -145
Houston has the edge in every single phase of the game. This is an Astros team that is excellent on the road going against a team that has no advantage when they are in front of their home crowd. Peacock has been brilliant this year and has really looked sharp in his last couple of starts. The money line is about as high as we will ever go, but the talent from top to bottom belongs to Houston.
Handicappers Hub
Pirates vs. Giants
Play:Pirates -149
Cole is starting to pitch like himself going 1-0 with a 2.37 ERA in his last 3 starts and this is a huge week for the Pirates as they try to gain ground in the NL Central. Meanwhile, Cain is just 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in his last 3 starts and I look for the Pirates to jump all over Cain and get the W tonight on the road!
Jack Brayman
Yesterday I told you the Cleveland Indians would win on the Run Line, and sure enough they blasted the Toronto Blue Jays, 8-1. Tonight I want you playing the Arizona Diamondbacks on the Run Line, over the visiting Atlanta Braves.
Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are Zack Greinke and R.A. Dickey. If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play.
How do you not side with one of the most dominant pitchers in the game? Greinke is 11-4 with a 2.97 ERA in 19 starts, and makes his second start in 17 days.
He has been aching to get back on the mound, and will dominate for the Snakes against visiting Atlanta. He is only 2-1 with a 3.07 ERA in seven career starts against the Braves, but that won't matter, as the Braves hitters don't realize what he deals.
Take Arizona run line tonight.
1* DIAMONDBACKS -1.5
Eric Schroeder
My free play for tonight is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Tampa Bay Rays, as I like the road team in what could very well be a pitching mismatch.
I love hearing the phrase "Kevin Gausman has been inconsistent" this season. Every time this is brought up, the fire-balling LSU-product brings heat and stymies foes. He is in after allowing one run over six innings while striking out eight Texas hitters.
The last time the right-hander faced these Rays was on July 2, when he threw seven scoreless innings and recorded nine strikeouts. He'll go in with confidence here.
On the flipside, Snell has struggled to provide any sort of durability since arriving in Tampa Bay in 2016. In that span he's logged 19 career starts of five innings or fewer, which ranks as the most by any pitcher on the junior circuit, within their first 30 career games.
Take the O's here, and list both.
5* ORIOLES
Brad Wilton
Monday night's comp play is the Red Sox and the Mariners to hold Under the total with Rodriguez and Paxton on the mound.
Boston held Under yesterday in Anaheim, dropping a 3-2 decision to the Angels, as the Sox have now played 7 of their last 10 games Under the total.
Seattle ended their series with New York by playing Over both Saturday and Sunday, but the Mariners are still 8-4 Under in their last 12 games contested.
Eduardo Rodriguez makes his second start back from the DL, and his start against Toronto did indeed end up Under the total last week, as the Under stands at 8-3 when he takes this hill this year.
James Paxton has been Seattle's "go to" hurler, and he sports an ERA of 2.25 for his last 3 starts with 3 of his last 4 starts overall holding Under the total.
All 3 series meetings this year between the teams have held Under, and 8 of the last 9 overall between the clubs have also held Under the total.
No difference tonight, BoSox-M's land Under.
5* BOSTON-SEATTLE UNDER
Jeff Benton
Make up game from Progressive Field as the Reds and Indians resume their in-state rivalry. Thus far it is the Reds holding the 2-1 edge, but I like the Indians tonight, and I like them to win big.
Cincy has won just 2 of their last 10 games, and starter Tim Adleman is 0-3 his last 4 starts, with 14 earned runs allowed his last 20-plus innings pitched.
Cleveland returned home from a brutal road trip, and wound up sweeping Toronto over the weekend in their 3-game series. The Indians are also 15-2 their last 17 home games versus the Reds.
Starter Josh Tomlin looks like he has found a groove, as he enters this start having won his last pair of decisions, working into the 7th inning in both with 5 runs surrendered.
I think we see a Cleveland win tonight by at least 3 runs.
4* CLEVELAND -1.5
Rob Vinciletti
Mets at Padres
Play: Mets
The Mets have won 4 of 5 and are 8-2 on the road off a home loss scoring 4 or less runs. Tonight they fit a powerful system that plays on road favorites at -140 or more off a 1 run home favored loss scoring 2 or less runs vs an opponent off a road game. these teams are cashing 91% long term. The Mets have Degrom on the mound and have won his last 7 starts. Degrom has a 1.80 era vs SD. C. Richard for the Padres has a 5.49 home era and an 8.00 eras in his last 3 starts. The Padres are 1-4 as a home dog in this range. Look for the Mets to take the opener.