DAVE COKIN
PHILLIES VS MARLINS
PLAY: PHILLIES +120
Miami is a good looking team right now, but the one liability that stats out is the back of the rotation. I don’t see Jarred Cosart being a solution. The righty has never put it together at this level, and he really hasn’t been especially effective of late at AAA with New Orleans.
So there’s a pretty substantial advantage here for Jeremy Hellickson, who has been rock solid recently for the Phillies. It’s also worth noting that Hellickson has had Miami’s number this year. He’s beaten the Marlins twice, and the Phils have won all three of his starts in the series this season.
If Hellickson can put together another decent effort here, I have to think that the road dog is plenty live as Cosart is clearly hittable. The price is somewhat reflective of the pitching disparity as it opened on the low side and got bet down a bit during the evening, but I still see reason to give the Phillies a roll here.
Rob Vinciletti
Yankees vs. Astros
Play: Astros -147
The Astros are 21-6 at home of late and have won 6 of the last 7 vs winning teams. The Yankees are 0-4 as a road dog off a home favored win. The Astros fit a nice 78% system that plays on home favorites off a home favored 5+ run win scoring 10+ runs, vs an opponent off a home favored win. Keuchel goes for the Astros and he is 4-1 with a 1.22 Era vs New York. The Yankees counter with Pineda who has a 5.69 road era and a 5.79 Era vs Houston. Look for the Astros to take the opener.
Mike Lundin
Oakland at Texas
Play: Texas -142
Sunday's free pick on the Halos was nothing short of an embarrassment as they ended up a 13-3 loser at Houston. I really like Monday's free play though which features Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers. The Rangers are coming off a 3-6 road trip out of the All-Star break, but they've been money home at Arlington all season long and this looks like a good spot to back the Rangers.
Martin Perez (7-7, 4.37) takes the ball for the home team. He's been knocked around pretty bad in four road starts this month, much like the whole Texas team he's been far better at home. Perez is 6-1 with a 2.48 ERA in nine turns at Globe Life Park compared to 1-6 with a 5.95 ERA in 11 starts away from home.
Daniel Mengden (1-5, 5.52 ERA) takes the ball for Oakland. The 23 year old rookie is 0-2 with a 9.33 ERA in four starts this month. He's dished out 14 free passes during that span and he gave up five his last time out.
Rangers are 9-2 in Perez's last 11 home starts vs. a team with a losing record, Athletics are 16-35 in their last 51 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Marc Lawrence
Los Angeles at Kansas City
Play: Los Angeles +109
Edges - Angels: Hector Santiago 4-1 team starts versus A.L. Central this season, and 5-2 as a dog this season. Royals: Ian Kennedy 5-9 team starts at night this season. With Santiago 6-1 with a 2.28 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in his last seven overall team starts, we recommend a 1* play on the L.A. Angels.
Bob Harvey
Rockies vs. Orioles
Play: Under 9½
The Orioles go for their fifth straight victory when they host the Colorado Rockies in the opener of a three-game interleague series in Baltimore. The Orioles and Yovani Gallardo are moneyline favorites over Jorge De La Rosa. The total is 9.5.
The Rockies (47-51, 22-27road) are led by first year sensation who had four homers and in RBI’s in a three-game sweep of the Atlanta Braves over the weekend. He’s blasted six roundtrippers in the last seven games giving him a National League best 27. Story is three home runs shy of tying Nomar Garciaparra for the rookie record of 30 homers by a shortstop.
The Orioles (57-40, 54-43 home) have ridden a string of outstanding pitching performances to move back into first-place in the American League East. O’s pitching allowed a total of six runs in a three-game sweep of the Cleveland Indians over the weekend.
De La Rosa (6-7, 6.07 ERA) had a string of five straight quality starts come to an abrupt end when he was ripped for nine runs – seven earned – on 11 hits and a pair of walks in four innings in a loss to Tampa Bay.
Gallardo (3-2, 5.69)has gone four consecutive turns without a quality start issuing 15 walks in 21 innings over those four turns. He spent his first eight seasons in the NL and never beat Colorado posting a 0-5 record with a 6.08 ERA in 10 games.
There are several trends supporting a play on the UNDER the least of which is Baltimore’s amazing 10-0 record to the in its last 10 games overall. The Birds are 13-3 to the low side in its last 16 outings while the Rockies are 7-2 to the UNDER in their last nine road games.
The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 series meetings.
Power Sports
San Diego vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto
Please note that I'm recommending laying the -1.5 with Blue Jays here. I think they have enough advantages to beat the Padres by multiple runs in Monday's opener. San Diego just took two of three from Washington, but Toronto has the most Interleague wins (11) of any team in baseball.
Blue Jays starter Aaron Sanchez has a 1.80 ERA and 0.85 WHIP his L3 starts. He's allowed 2 ER or less in six consecutive starts. His last loss came all the way back on April 22nd. While the Padres' lineup has homered in 22 consecutive games, this will be the franchise's first foray ever into Toronto. Rogers Centre is known for being a hitter's park, but I'm unconvinced that San Diego will able to take advantage. They are just 19-31 in road games overall, including 1-5 as a dog of +200 to +225.
San Diego's Colin Rea has a 4.86 ERA and 1.62 WHIP his L3 starts. He also gave up three home runs in his last start. That's key. Sanchez has allowed only two in his last six starts and if you take away the four he gave up in an uncharacteristically poor showing vs. Baltimore on June 12th, he's allowed just three since the start of May! The Blue Jays really need this one as the fight for Wild Card/playoff position. The Padres have been surprisingly competitive since the Break, but that ends here.
Jim Feist
Phillies at Marlins
Pick: Under
A pair of weak offenses clash in Miami, a big park, great for pitchers. Philadelphia is on a 7-3 run under the total and the Under is 8-1 in the Phillies last 9 vs. the National League East. The Under is 7-1 when Jeremy Hellickson faces the National League East. Hellickson (7-7) gave up just a single run on five hits without a walk while striking out eight over eight sparkling innings in Wednesday's win against the Marlins. Miami is 6-2 under the total against a team with a losing record. And the Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Don Anthony
Cincinnati Reds +137
The San Francisco Giants are ice cold right now. They have 1 win since returning from the break and clearly should have lost that game as well. A big problem is their offense. Their hitting is just atrocious right now, going 9-72 with RISP (runners in scoring position.) I don't think they're going to have much success tonight either going up against the Reds' best starter in Anthony Desclafani. This guy has been money. He is 5-0 with an ERA of 2.50.
The Giants send out Jake Peavy and he is a ticking time bomb. I don't know how anyone can confidently put money on this guy. Yes, the Giants could win this game but it would make you sweat bullets backing him. The Reds have been knocking the cover off the ball lately and that is not a good sign for Peavy because they handed him his worst loss of the season this year, allowing 7 earned runs.
As strange as it may seem, the Reds have won 10 of the their last 12 and 12 of their last 16 games in San Francisco. I'll gladly back the better pitcher and hotter hitting team here for plus money.
Larry Ness
Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants
Pick: San Francisco Giants
The SF Giants owned MLB’s best record at the All Star break (57-33) but the team has won just ONE of eight games (a 2-1, 12-inning victory this past Saturday) since resuming play. The Giants’ NL West lead has been cut to three games over the Dodgers (down from 6 1/2 games at the break) as they get set to open a week-long homestand on Monday night against the 38-60 Cincinnati Reds. The Giants return home off a 1-7 road trip in which they batted just .125 (9-for-72) with RISP, averaging only 2.88 RPG. The Reds are 6-3 since the break but remain in last place in the NL Central, a whopping 21 /2 games back of the Cubs.
Anthony DeSclafani (5-0, 2.50 ERA) will take the mound for the Reds and Jake Peavy (5-8, 5.15 ERA) starts for the Giants. DeSclafani didn’t make his first start of 2016 until June 10 but after two no-decisions to open his season, he’s won FIVE of his last six starts. The Reds are 6-2 in his eight starts this year and despite making only eight starts, his five wins is tied for the most of any Cincinnati pitcher. He enters this contest having posted SIX consecutive quality starts but in his only career start vs the Giants, allowed SIX runs (all earned) in just three innings of a 9-8 loss back on May 17, 2015.
A look at Jake Peavy’s 5.15 ERA paints a poor picture but note that after the Giants lost SIX of his first nine starts of 2016, the team has rebounded to win SEVEN of his last 10 (the Giants are 10-9 in his starts this season, plus-$109 vs the moneyline).
Peavy’s just 19-18 since joining the Giants in a trade from the Red Sox but a deeper look shows that six of those losses came against teams Peavy faced again later in the same season and he won all six of the rematches while posting a 2.95 ERA, after owning a 6.59 ERA in the first meetings.
Maybe more importantly, Peavy is an impressive 7-1 with a 2.92 ERA in 13 career starts vs the Reds, with his teams going a money-making 11-2. He’s also NEVER lost a home start against Cincinnati, going 4-0 while allowing only 37 hits in 52 innings, while posting a 1.90 ERA. With the first-place Nats (NL East) coming to town Thursday for four games, this series is a great opportunity for the Giants to gain some momentum with a three-game sweep of the Reds. First things first and I’ll back Peavy and the Giants, tonight.
Wunderdog
Los Angeles @ Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City -115
The Los Angeles Angels just got swept in a three-game series at Houston and now face the Royals, who lost the last two games of their series with Texas, but still are 31-17 at home this season. Ian Kennedy had a bad outing against Cleveland on Wednesday, but in his three previous games he allowed only six runs in 16 1/3 innings and didn't get much run support. Hector Santiago gave up three runs and five hits in five innings against the Rangers his last start. The Angels are in last place in the AL West, are 21-29 on the road, and they are 5-16 against right-handed starters in away games. The Royals have won 12 of their last 17 home games against left-handed starters and they're 12th in the majors with a home OPS of .773.
Scott Rickenbach
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies
Jared Cosart returns from the minors to make this start for the Marlins. Even at the minor league level, the right-hander had a losing record and was getting hit at a .281 clip. In the majors this season Cosart is winless in 3 starts with a 7.98 ERA on the season. Monday he faces a Phillies team that is off of a loss but that reached double digits in hits for the fourth time in their last five games. As for the Marlins, they have been held to 7 hits or less in 5 of their last 7 games. The struggles at the plate are likely to continue for Miami Monday as they face Jeremy Hellickson of the Phillies. He has held them to only 3 earned runs on just 10 hits in the 14 innings spanning his last two starts against them. Also, Hellickson comes into this start having allowed just 1 earned run in 4 of his last 5 starts! Philly is 6-4 (+3 net games) as a road dog of +100 to +125 this season. The Marlins are just 20-27 (-11.6 net games) in divisional games this season. Fantastic underdog line value here.
Tony Finn
Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants -130
A sluggish start to the second half of the 2016 MLB campaign has the San Francisco Giants squad pleased to be back home at friendly AT&T Park. The Giants aim to reverse their fortunes (3-7 last 10 games overall) when they host the Cincinnati Reds on Monday in the opener of a three-game set.
San Francisco exited the first half of the season with a 6 1/2-game lead in the National League West. Following the Mid-Summer Classic the Giants have stumbled and take on the Reds tonight off a 1-7 road trip. The Giants currently own a 3-game lead over second place Los Angeles. The Reds finished a 6-3 homestand with a tough 9-8 loss to Arizona on Sunday afternoon.
Reds
DeSclafani has strung together six consecutive quality starts posted six straight quality starts. The Reds right-hander has not walked a batter in three straight turns DeSclafani tries to improve to 6-0 since returning from a left oblique strain that resulted in the righty missing the first two months of the season. The young right-hander is 5-0 with a 2.50 ERA in eight starts. The aforementioned numbers are a signal that negative regression is forthcoming. DeSclafani has a below average strikeout rate (19%) and has been extremely fortunate with his strand ratio (83%). DeSclafani has also struggled against left-handed bats the past 2 seasons offering up a .350 wOBA. DeSclafani's lone start versus the Giants, a season ago, resulted in six runs allowed over three innings.
Giants
Peavy's two start week for the scuffling G-Men begins with a test against an inconsistent and pedestrian Cincinnati offense. Peavy sports a 3.46 FIP at home, vs. a 4.89 FIP on the road. His 5.15 ERA is the result of poor luck, overall, and nearly one run higher than his FIP year-to-date. His Swinging Strike percentage is up to 10.3%, the highest it’s been since 2008.
Outlook
The Giants do what they do well, defend their Bay turf and surf, and Peavy executes a quality start against the visiting Reds tonight and does so at a bargain price. Peavy is 7-1 with a 2.92 ERA in his career against the Reds and has issued two or fewer walks in 12 consecutive starts.
Scott Spreitzer
Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals
Play: Los Angeles Angels +108
Kansas City is showing signs that this will not be the Royals year as now they're even having trouble winning at home. The Royals lost the last two games against the slumping Texas Rangers to fall below .500 on the season. Los Angeles didn't fare any better over the weekend getting swept by the Astros after winning six in a row but the Angels have the pitching edge in tonight's matchup. The Angels have won Hector Santiago's last five starts and he's allowed just three earned runs his last four outings in 25 innings. Also, Santiago actually has pitched better on the road where he has a 3.03 ERA and last year the Royals had a .198 batting average against him in 12 innings of work. Kansas City has lost Ian Kennedy's last four starts, including 11-4 against Cleveland when Kennedy gave up seven runs and six hits in 4 1/3 innings.
Buster Sports
Montreal at Toronto
Play: Under 45.5
The Alouettes have went Under in all 3 games this year. Toronto has gone Under in 3 out of 4. Backing our selection is the fact that the UNDER is 19-7 in Alouettes last 26 games following a straight up loss. The UNDER is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings between these teams and The UNDER is 9-1 in Toronto's last 10 games overall.
Dwayne Bryant
Detroit at Boston
Play: Under 10
Justin Verlander hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his four July starts. Drew Pomeranz got roughed up to the tune of five runs on eight hits (two homers) in just three innings of work in his Boston debut (bounce-back time). Prior to that, Pomeranz only allowed more than three runs once in his last seven starts as a Padre.