Oskeim Sports
Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox -136
Recently acquired southpaw Drew Pomeranz arrived in Boston in the thick of a breakout campaign, posting a 2.47 ERA and 1.06 WHIP across seventeen starts. Unfortunately, the 27-year-old struggled in his Fenway debut, yielding five earned runs on 8 hits in just three innings against the Giants. "It takes about a week," Pomeranz said of getting acclimated with a new team. "When you transition anywhere, you have to remember what you've done all year. I know my approach, but they have their own approach here. It is all about integrating into one."
Despite last week's disappointing outing, Pomeranz's 2.83 ERA is fully supported by his peripheral: 3.37 FIP, 3.66 xFIP and a 3.75 SIERA. Pomeranz's ground ball rate has improved (46.7% GB% vs. 42.2% GB% in 2015) and he boasts a phenomenal 27.7% strikeout rate (10.20 K/9).
Upon arriving in Boston, Pomeranz ranked eighth in ERA-, 13th in FIP- and 21st in K-BB% out of 143 starting pitchers with a minimum 50 innings. In other words, it's important not to overreact to one start that came shortly after being traded from San Diego to the east coast.
Pomeranz's success has been predicated upon the development of a third pitch - a cutter - that was initially introduced to him by former Minor League teammate Travis Higgs during the offseason. "He showed me the grip and where to apply the pressure," Pomeranz said. Combined with an effective fastball and curveball, the cut fastball has allowed Pomeranz to keep batters off balance.
In his first seven starts this season, Pomeranz only threw the cutter 4% of the time. However, since May 18, a span encompassing 10+ starters, Pomeranz has thrown the cutter 19% of the time. "It has made all the difference in the world," Pomeranz said about his development of the cut fastball.
Even more impressive is the fact that Pomeranz is adept at throwing all three pitches at varying speeds and at any count. Since May 18, Pomeranz is ranked in the 92nd percentile in exit velocity allowed, which is the byproduct of his cut fastball. Pomeranz was also yielding a .328 OPS during his third time through the order prior to last week's outing, which was the best mark in baseball by over 100 points!
Pomeranz should have success against a Detroit lineup averaging just 4.5 runs per game on the road (.258 AVG.; .316 OBP; .728 OPS) and 3.0 runs over its last seven games (.242 AVG.; .296 OBP; .655 OPS). Technically speaking, Detroit is a money-burning 15-36 in its last 51 trips to Fenway Park, including losing its last five with Justin Verlander on the mound.
The Tigers are also 3-10 in Verlander's last 13 starts versus American League East foes and 2-5 in his last seven starts during game 1 of a series, whereas Boston is 6-0 in its last 6 during game 1 of a series and 9-2 in its last eleven home games. Detroit is a money-burning 2-8 in its last 8 road games versus teams with a winning record and 6-3 in its last 19 road games versus left-handed starters, including 0-4 in its last four against southpaws.
Sleepyj
Cardinals +1.5 -145
I'm always a fan of taking better teams getting +1.5 Vs. a weak hitting team with one of the teams best pitchers...We have that here with the Cards and Martinez...Martinez hasn't allowed 4 runs or more going back to May....So asking him to give up 4 runs to a weak hitting team is tough...Not to mention we are getting +1.5 runs here...Cards have lost 2 in a row now and that will give them a boost here to hang Vs. Syndergaard...He hasn't been super sharp in his last 7 games..Some are hit and miss with some gems, but he can be hit versus this lineup...We get a low total here of 7, so the +1.5 is more valuable to us here..i'll take a shot here with the Cards at +1.5
Bruce Marshall
Colorado +152
Maybe not the time to go against Baltimore after the impressive weekend sweep of Cleveland. But not sure how ex-Rockies starter Yovani Gallardo fares vs. his old team as his control problems have yet to abate and his performances continue to suggest he could not be long for Buck Showalter's rotation, Colorado's Jorge De La Rosa has pitched better on the road, where he has four straight quality starts.
Chase Diamond
Los Angeles at Kansas City
Play: Los Angeles
This game has the 43-55 Angels and the 48-49 Royals. Angels are 6-4 last 10 but have dropped their last 3 straight and really need a turn around game here tonight. Royals have been a sinking ship 3-7 last 10 and I think we get the better pitcher here in Hector Santiago he has 4 straight wins as a starter and Ian Kennedy is coming off a game that he gave up 4 homeruns to the Indians. Only 38% backing the road Angels here and we are seeing some line movement the opposite direction. The Angels are 20-6 in Santiago's last 26 starts. Royals are 5-13 in their last 18 vs. American League West.
Brandon Lee
Reds vs. Giants
Play: Under 8
The books have set the total too high for Monday's matchup between the Reds and Giants. Two underrated starters take the mound in this one. San Francisco sends out Jake Peavy against Cincinnati's Anthony Deslafani. Peavy has pitched much better at home compared to on the road and has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 5 of this last 8 starts. Deslafani on the other hand has been lights out since joining the rotation. He's 5-0 with a 2.50 ERA in 8 starts. He hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs in a single start this season. UNDER is 10-2-1 in Deslafani's last 13 starts against a team with a winning record and 7-1-1 in Peavy's last 9 starts against a team with a losing record.
Jack Jones
St. Louis Cardinals +163
I'm willing to take a shot with the St. Louis Cardinals as massive road underdogs against the New York Mets in Game 1 of this series Monday night. This is a much more evenly-matched game on the mound than this line would indicate.
Carlos Martinez continues to go under the radar. He's 9-6 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.128 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 5-1 with a 1.71 ERA and 1.035 WHIP in seven road starts.
Martinez has never lost to the Mets, going 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 1.162 WHIP in two career starts against them. He has pitched 10 1/3 innings without allowing a single earned run in those two starts.
St. Louis is a very profitable 27-16 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in road games this season. The Cardinals are 10-2 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. St. Louis is 16-5 in Martinez's last 21 road starts.
John Ryan
Cardinals vs. Mets
Play: Mets -140
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-8 mark good for 83% winners and has made 28.4 units/unit wagered since 1997. Play against all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (ST LOUIS) good NL offensive team scoring >=5.0 runs/game and with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts and is now facing a team with a good bullpen posting an ERA
Jimmy Boyd
Red Sox -130
Boston is showing great value here as a relatively small home favorite against the Tigers. Boston will be continuing their 10-game homestand, while the Tigers will be playing their fifth straight on the road. Detroit has been slumping a bit of late and come in having dropped 2 straight. Red Sox on the other hand are 10-3 in their last 13 and come in scorching at the plate, averaging 6.7 runs/game over their last 7.
Drew Pomeranz will be making his second start for Boston since being acquired in a trade with the Padres. Pomeranz struggled in his first start with the Red Sox, but I like him to rebound in a big way. The guy has a 2.83 ERA and 1.133 WHIP over 18 starts this season and will have an advantage here with many of the Tigers' players having not seen much of him (first career start against them).
Detroit is 2-8 in their last 10 road games against a team with a winning record and 0-4 in their last 4 against a left-handed starter. Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 during Game 1 of a series, 6-1 in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning record and 10-4 in their last 14 against a right-handed starter.
Dave Price
Texas Rangers -129
I like the price we are getting with the Texas Rangers at home tonight against the Oakland A's due to their edge on the mound. Martin Perez has been dominant at home this season, going 6-1 with a 2.48 ERA in 9 starts. Daniel Mengden is 1-5 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.545 WHIP in 8 starts this year, including 0-1 with a 10.38 ERA and 2.077 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The A's are 16-35 in their last 51 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Rangers are 56-27 in their last 83 home games. The Rangers are 5-0 in Perez's last 5 home starts.
Cajun Sports
Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers
Pick: Texas Rangers -131
The Oakland Athletics make the trip to Texas for a three-game set against the hometown Rangers beginning Monday night. Both of the Game One starters are struggling with a double-digit ERA over their last three outings. There is a positive for one of tonight’s starters we see the home record of 6-1 SU with an ERA of 2.48 this season for Texas starter Martin Perez. Oakland starter Daniel Mengden has a record of 1-1 SU and an ERA of 5.00 in his three road starts this season. Our BbTPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.32 runs for the Texas Rangers in this contest. The SPMatrix has Martin Perez with a 6.06 average which is average compared to the rest of the league and Daniel Mengden’s average reflects how poor he has pitched with an average of 3.08. A check of our powerful MLB database reveals a league system that is active tonight. We want to play ON MLB home teams coming off a win in which they came back from a deficit. These home teams are 389-273 SU for fifty-eight percent winners and a profit of +5319 Units. Lay the chalk with the Texas Rangers on Monday night.
SPORTS WAGERS
Montreal +185 over TORONTO
If home is where the heart is then the Argonauts are in big trouble. After a quarter century in the cavernous confines of the Rogers Centre, the Argos move to cozier BMO Field was sure to bring the city's passion back to the gridiron. Instead, the Argos are detested by MLS's Toronto FC and their supporters for squatting in “their” stadium. After drawing less than 12,500 fans in a stadium that sits 25,000 for their last game, we're pretty sure there are more people in Toronto that care about the damage to the natural grass at BMO than they care about the plight of the Argonauts. It’s so bad that the ownership group in Toronto have put Argos tickets on Groupon. That’s no joke either. Groupon is the same company that a dentist working out of his van uses. Most of the fans that will show up tonight will be playing Pokeman Go because they are part of the Groupon package. Most of the other fans will all be over 55-years-old and Caucasian because that’s who attended Argos games back in the 70’s. Toronto figured that the old adage that stated, “Build it and they will come” applied but it has not. The ownership group has done a terrible marketing job and now they’re paying for it. Perhaps the Brady kids (the ones that are still alive) will be at this game, who knows?
In any event, the move has been nothing short of disappointing on the field as well. The Boatmen are 0-2 at BMO Field. Ricky Ray is getting very little protection by his offensive line, which has been a big problem that has also resulted in 10 sacks in those two games. The defense has also had their problems at BMO. Last week against Ottawa, the Argos were burned for over 400 yards of total offense. That’s not uncommon either, as the Argos have struggled to make stops all season. They've given up over 250 yards passing in all four games they've played. Quarterback Ricky Ray looks old. Last week's game with the Redblacks was a stiff reminder that Toronto made the wrong choice in letting Trevor Harris walk in favor of the vet. Loyalty doesn’t win games. The Argos have been favored just once this season and that was opening night when they got pounded by Hamilton 42-20 before oddsmakers knew what they were dealing with. They were a 3½-point dog at Saskatchewan, a 6½-point pooch in B.C. and while they won both of those games on the road, they weren't impressive victories. In fact, only good fortune allowed Toronto to emerge victorious. Finally, the Argos were a 1-point pooch at home last week to Ottawa. We're not sure what they managed to show anyone in that 30-20 loss that would justify us spotting significant points with them tonight.
From the outside looking in, the Alouettes appear to be in total disarray. They're just 1-2 and have got clobbered in two straight games. They sit at the bottom of the power rankings and their stock is sinking more every week. There's reason for optimism though, as quarterback Kevin Glenn returns tonight after missing last game with an eye injury. With an early season bye and a quarterback carousel due to injury, we’re not quite ready to write off the Als. Glenn has only been able to fully compete in one game this season, their Week 1 win at Winnipeg. With a healthy Glenn in the lineup tonight, the Alouettes figure to be much better and more confident too. Furthermore, Montreal’s defense is a ferocious unit that has spent way too much time on the field because the offense could not move five yards. That figures to change here also with Glenn running the offense. Montreal has outgained two of their three opponents and it’s not because of their offense. Als Coach, Jim Popp is a complete incompetent in terms of his coaching ability but he’s a great judge of talent and he’s put together a talented roster, which includes Montreal’s rock solid defense. Finally and for what it’s worth, The Als have enjoyed their recent trips to Toronto, having won four straight games dating back to 2013. We like the upset potential in this one, as we know what we are going to get with the Argos and it’s usually not pretty.
PLEASE NOTE: We are splitting this wager into twp part with one unit on the money line @ +180 and 1.1 units to win 1 on the point-spread
SPORTS WAGERS
Colorado +146 over BALTIMORE
Jorge De La Rosa may get whacked today and if he does, so be it. De La Rosa is a starting pitcher that has gone 23-5 with a 3.58 ERA at Coors over the past three years so he obviously has the talent to succeed. If he’s throwing strikes or if he’s around the dish he has a great chance to succeed here because the free-swinging Orioles figure to help him out. De La Rosa’s 11% swing and miss rate is enough reason to back him here at this price against Yovani Gallardo.
Live betting has become a big part of our criterion but we cannot post those live bets here because they must be made while watching the game and they must be made quickly. We mention this because we’re getting lots of emails about 5-inning plays and why we went away from that strategy. For instance, yesterday we went 0-3 but would have gone 3-0 had we played all three games in five innings only. Thing is, with leads after five innings, we can always buy out of liability after five innings and we strongly suggest you keep that as part of your criterion as well. There are times when the takeback on the team trailing is large so the profit potential is still great with absolutely no risk involved and it’s for that reason we’re sticking to full game wagers. Colorado has a great chance to be ahead after five innings today so keep that in mind. Now let’s get back to Gallardo, a pitcher that should never be favored.
When the Orioles signed Yovani Gallardo as a free agent this past off-season, concerns about his shoulder caused them to reduce their offer from three guaranteed years to two years with an option. Sure enough, Gallardo missed two months to a shoulder injury earlier this year. Since his return, he’s not been very effective. His skills and xERA say he’s having nothing but problems, such as continually decreasing velocity. Gallardo’s getting behind in the count a lot and has issued a lot of walks. In 55 frames, he has an ugly BB/K split of 31/37. Gallardo is also serving up more fly balls in 2016. With Camden Yards enhancing LH HR by 37%, that's only asking for trouble. Gallardo was once a starting pitcher with overpowering stuff and occasional mid-3s ERA’s. Now he's struggling to pitch in any role and the only reason he’s in there is because some idiot decided he was worth a fortune. Gallardo's starting days should be gone; see horrible pre-'15 and ‘16 ERA trend. That Gallardo is priced in this range is actually preposterous.
Oakland +119 over TEXAS
Daniel Mengden was very good during his first four MLB starts in June (2.81 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) but it’s been a different story since with a 7.37 ERA. Fact is, Mengden’s skills were exactly the same in June as they have been during this current funk he’s in. He was averaging 9K’s/9 in his first four starts and is still averaging that. His groundball rate of 44% has remained steady. His walk rate is the same also. Mengden is getting a 14%+ swing and miss rate on both his slider and curveball, so he has two solid off-speed pitches at his disposal. He is also filthy against RH bats with 10.8 K’s/9, 1.4 BB’s/9 and a 50% groundball rate. To avoid his blowup risk, it would be best to pass on him against lineups with strong lefty bats but that is not the case here against the mostly right-handed lineup of the Rangers.
Martin Perez’s blowup risk is about 100 times higher than anyone else. Here’s a guy that has a BB/K split of 51/55 in 119 innings. His xERA of 6.10 is higher than any pitcher in the game that has thrown over 90 innings this year. Over his last 29 innings, Perez has walked 12 and struck out 10. His swing and miss rate is 4%. Perez is absolutely and completely at the mercy of batted balls in play variances and so far he’s been extremely lucky in that regard. This is a minor-league pitcher donning a major-league uniform and even calling him a minor-league pitcher might be generous.
Philadelphia +140 over MIAMI
Jeremy Hellickson has made some notable gains with his secondary offerings this year, particularly his change-up. With two near-elite offerings in his change-up and curveball, Hellickson has the goods to survive and occasionally thrive without lighting up the radar gun. There doesn't seem to be much room for further growth in his already high-quality curveball and change-up and the long-term velocity trend suggests that Hellickson isn't about to rediscover the upper-end of the "88-93 mph" range he brought with him to the bigs nearly six years ago. He can certainly survive with his current repertoire and it’s also worth noting that he’s been downright dominant against right-handed lineups and the Fish have a heavy right-handed lineup. Aside from that, this wager is more aboyut fading Jarred Cosart.
Cosart made three starts in April before Miami's patience with him came to an end. Cosart's 7.98 ERA somewhat exaggerates how bad his performance was in April but that's damning him with faint praise. His xERA was still a terrible 6.18 and it doesn’t appear that he worked out anything in the minors. In those three aforementoned starts at this level in April, Cosart walked 15 batters in 15 innings and struck out eight. In 58 minor-league innings since the demotion, Cosart walked 26 and whiffed 34. Dude couldn’t even strike out minor-leaguers at an acceptable rate. The sum of the parts has fallen short of the whole. Cosart’s K’s are sparse despite mid-90s heater. His swing and miss rate in the minors was 5% and it was 4% when he pitched here in April. The one constant has been shoddy control and until he reins that in, he'll continue to be enigmatic and largely unplayable. Concurrent and steady plummets in skills and first-pitch strike rate give no hope of a rebound. If you were thinking Miami, move on.
Arizona +114 over MILWAUKEE
After a weekend series with the Cubbies that drew 40,000 plus a game, the Brewers will go back to playing in front of a mostly empty stadium tonight when the Diamondbacks come calling. In fact, Milwaukee’s last four home series have been against Chicago, St. Louis, the Dodgers and the Mets so there is an even better chance that their intensity in this series will not come close to matching their intensity of those aforementioned others. Situationally speaking, this is not a good series for the Brewers to thrive and now they’re favored with Chase Anderson going.
Anderson faces the team that traded him for Jean Segura and of course he would like to do well but wanting to and being able to are two different things. It’s not that Anderson isn’t capable of good game because like most pitchers at this level, he is. However, the Crew have lost five of his last six starts by scores of 11-5, 10-6, 9-8, 6-5 and 8-1. Milwaukee has only won six of Anderson’s 18 starts so why would we not accept a tag against a pitcher whose team wins just 33% of his starts? Anderson has weak peripherals (35/69 BB/K split in 90 innings). His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 36%/23%/41% is not only troublesome, it has not played well at this park all season long and doesn’t figure to play well here either. Anderson is prone to giving up bombs because of his fly-ball tendencies.
Braden Shipley gets the call from Triple-A to make his major league debut here. Shipley was ranked No. 47 in the preseason top 100 prospects by at least two publications. He was a first-round pick in the 2013 draft and has been effective with three average to above average offerings. This is his first season above Double-A and he’s done a much better job of commanding the plate with his sinking 91-96 mph fastball. On the one hand, his strikeout rate has been disappointing. On the other hand, he works all four quadrants of the strike zone and can get hitters to swing and miss at his power curveball. Shipley is an excellent athlete who repeats his smooth delivery very consistently. His best pitch might be his change-up that has plus deception and drop. He has some work to do with pitch sequencing, but he’s making strides in all facets of pitching. If everything comes together for him, Shipley has a very good chance of becoming a #2 or #3 starter with the potential for even more if he becomes more aggressive with his fastball. Shipley started 19 games for Reno of the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League and in 119 innings walked just 22 batters. He surrendered just seven jacks and also pitched to a 3.70 ERA, which is very good in that league. His xERA was even better at 3.52 and xERA does not take park factors into consideration. A first-time starter is usually risky but with that risk also comes reward and this is a good a spot for this kid to get his feet wet. He has the talent.
Bill Marzano
Phillies at Marlins
Play: Phillies
I really like the Philadelphia Phillies in this game vs the Miami Marlins...the Marlins have been playing great baseball and find themselves right in the mix but will face a red hot pitcher in J.Hellickson...Hellickson is in great pitching form and has been rumored to be on the trading block and could be a Marlin soon enough...he is 2-0 in three starts vs the fish this year and 3-1 over his last five starts overall...J.Cosart gets the nod after Chen was moved to the DL...Cosart is 0-1 with an ERA approaching eight in limited work this year...he has struggled with his command.
Bob Balfe
Red Sox -120
The Tigers have been sluggish with the bats as of late which is no good when facing a Red Sox team that always hits the ball well at home and have been hot with the bats the last few games. The humidity tonight will help this Red Sox lineup knock some deep shots out of the ball park. Verlander is starting to get his stuff back, but I think he comes up a bit short tonight.
Bruce Marshall
Detroit +116
Drew Pomeranz wobbled in his Bosox debut last Wednesday vs. the Giants and now some are wondering how he will fare in the quirly Fenway Park after playing at pitcher-friendly Petco Park earlier this season. Don't look now, but Justin Verlander is very much back in the groove, allowing just 1 or 2 runs in his last four starts.